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Thread: Japan gets owned hard by earthquake, tsunami rushes towards US

  1. #176
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Not only that, how far can you realistically run in 20 minutes if you're out of shape, elderly, or taking children with you?

  2. #177
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Rochester, NY
    And that's assuming the powers-that-be get the warning that the wave is incoming, react immediately, and broadcast the warning to everyone in the coastal cities in a negligible time. And it's assuming people don't panic, or try to meet up with family members at work, or get caught in the inevitable clusterfuck of a traffic jam that would result.

    But fuck, it's their fault if they can't sense an incoming tsunami and sprint up a mountain in twenty minutes.

  3. #178
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2004
    dude. the whole fucking ground is shaking and buildings collapsing. This isn't your pissy little Cali earthquake, this is the biggest earthquake Japan has seen in DECADES. In twenty minutes, you wont even get from underneath the table/doorway/whatever you hurriedly jumped under when this shit cause you'll be too confused or expecting aftershocks. Not to mention even thinking about evacuating.

    Koki is as koki does.
    Last edited by Yakoob; 23rd Mar 2011 at 22:28.

  4. #179
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2008
    Some interesting footage of people leaving Otsuchi - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJLT0tm-jWw

  5. #180
    Member
    Registered: May 2001
    Location: Stir Crazy
    Weird thing is Japanese people are the most prepared people on the planet when it comes to earthquakes, yet a few could run away or get a hint about a tsunami coming next (since they always have them in big quakes).

  6. #181
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2004
    did you even bother reading like the ten posts before yours?

  7. #182
    Taking a break
    Registered: Dec 2002
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Are you saying twenty minutes is enough time to get the word out to everyone in a coastal city and then evacuate it? Seriously?
    Are you saying the country which spends millions of dollars on earthquake training of its citizens didn't teach them that an earthquake in a middle of the ocean will cause a tsunami?

    Hindsight is always 20/20, but then again I don't live in a coastal area prone to earthquakes so I didn't really think about it till recently. Yet I managed to reach the following conclusion:

    After a quake when you're not dead you can assume two things:
    1) it's a local, weak(otherwise you'd probably be dead) quake.
    2) it's a strong quake that happened far away.

    And you can do one of two things:
    a) nothing
    b) assume the quake might have been in the middle of an ocean and drive and will cause a horrid tsunami wave so drive, bike, jog or even walk(you can cover well over one klick in twenty minutes) inland or towards nearest high ground or towards nearest building that isn't made out of cardboard and wait there for an hour just to be sure

    Your choices are 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b. Want me to draw it for you?


    But thanks for all the replies anyway guys. Gives me a bit of an insight how the death toll reached 20k.

  8. #183
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: 1, Rotation: 0
    Quote Originally Posted by Koki View Post
    But thanks for all the replies anyway guys. Gives me a bit of an insight how the death toll reached 20k.
    Give it up, Koki. What you said was just fucking stupid.

  9. #184
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    We know about 10k dead so far and 10k missing, but out of how many who were potentially at risk? If 2 million, then 99% made it to safety.

    The area around and to the North of Sendai is a coastal plain without much high ground. Good luck running away from there. The tsunami penetrated up to 10km inland in some spots.

    I used to travel to Japan and from what I remember the major population centers are protected by breakwaters and seawalls, and throughout the coastal areas there are various kinds of tsunami shelters which range from water tight buildings to platforms on concrete pillars to parking garages. I don't think they were supposed to evacuate because it's futile for whole towns to empty that quickly.

    I'm sure some people were clueless and didn't do what they were supposed to, and I'm sure some were disabled, elderly, etc. and couldn't go anywhere, and I'm sure some were just complacent. But probably the biggest thing is that they weren't prepared for a tsunami this big. The town of Otsuchi had a tsunami wall and you can see in the video that the water level was already above the wall before the main part of the tsunami even hit. Fukushima had breakwaters or seawalls in front, but they're also useless against something this big. I'll bet quite a few tsunami shelters were taken out too.

  10. #185
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: LTSI
    You need a hug Koki, that's all.

  11. #186
    Member
    Registered: May 2001
    Location: Stir Crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by Yakoob View Post
    did you even bother reading like the ten posts before yours?
    But of course my friend, I just wanted to underline it once again.
    I'm so stubborn.

  12. #187
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Europops
    The entire nation got an earthquake warning instantly. It even popped up all over national tv interrupting shows and a parliamentary broadcast. The earthquake in Tokyo, which is relatively far away from the epicenter, went on for 5 whole minutes. 5. They don't usually last anywhere near that long and who knows what the people in the north experienced.

    That's 5 minutes to crap yourself, a few minutes to collect yourself, and then a mad rush if you realise that a tsunami is coming. I'm sure a tsunami warning went out pretty much instantly too but unless you're just running for yourself and not trying to help anyone, get in touch with people you care about and so on you're not going to just up and run like mad. I suppose it makes sense for Koki though since, you know.

  13. #188
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2004
    Also, majority of the Japanese population is on the elderly side (which is actually a big concern in Japan), not exactly the types to just get up and run...

  14. #189
    Member
    Registered: May 2001
    Location: Stir Crazy
    5 minutes to crap yourself if you didn't fell by the earthquake shake that is (this was one of those quakes where you cannot stand on your feet and fall, maybe badly and hitting something along the way, or some furniture falls on you and you might have to struggle for a while to get out, if you can do the physical effort, or else you're screwed).

  15. #190
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: LTSI
    Glad we established now that thousands of Japanese didn't die because they were too stupid to run away. Not that anyone without Koki's sense of self-importance actually believed that. Now we can discuss how they could be so stupid to build reactors at the shore line. Mmmaybe because they need a lot of water to cool them? Well damn. But why didn't they build them in an earthquake free region?
    ...
    This could go on and on. The motivation behind such smartassery is transparent: If you can show they were just being stupid Japs, that makes you smart and proves a disaster like that could never happen to you. Nevermind that you probably have at least a dozen hightech products of these stupid people in your house. Or that you're harking back to racist cynicism while they die. As long as you don't have to change your own comfortable position it's all good.

  16. #191
    Member
    Registered: May 2001
    Location: Stir Crazy
    I never said anything about that kind of thing, in California there are nuclear reactors, and two in Chile (another 8+, 9+ quake zone), another bright idea under the sun.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_reactors

  17. #192
    Taking a break
    Registered: Dec 2002
    Quote Originally Posted by Kolya View Post
    Glad we established now that thousands of Japanese didn't die because they were too stupid to run away.
    I wanted to blame the government really, for not educating the people better, but if you want to put it this way...

    Now we can discuss how they could be so stupid to build reactors at the shore line. Mmmaybe because they need a lot of water to cool them? Well damn. But why didn't they build them in an earthquake free region?
    But why didn't they protect them from a tsunami? I believe that was my actual question.

    This could go on and on.
    Yeah, your bleeding heart whining does seem to drag on.

  18. #193
    Cuddly little misanthropic hate machine
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Location: 4 doors down, bad side of town
    So what's it like having no soul? Do you get a monthly check?

  19. #194
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: ...and mastadons
    Quote Originally Posted by Koki View Post
    I wanted to blame the government really, for not educating the people better, but if you want to put it this way...
    They had 7 minutes to run to the higher ground lying roughly a half mile inland after a severe earthquake, dipshit. All the government educational videos in the world can't prepare you for something like that. Your best case scenario is to hope to find a tall, sturdy building, get on the roof, and pray.

  20. #195
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2004
    Ladies and Gentlement, Koki - the best human being in the universe.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kolya View Post
    But why didn't they build them in an earthquake free region?
    It's Japan, I don't think there exists an earthquake-free zone. But I do agree about the shoreline thing.

    At the same time, though, I always try to stop myself from jumping on a reactionary armchair response like this ("they built it on a coast? how retarded are they!") I mean, it's not like some dude in a suit just says "lets built it there cause the view is pretty." You get a huge panel of engineers, geology experts and nuclear scientists who probably spend a good few months (if not years) researching the optimal design and location for a plant. If building on a shoreline was utterly retarded, I'm pretty sure someone would have pointed it out at some point. But they still built it; so even though we bitch about the stupidity of their choice, I'd wager there is some good, solid reasons behind it.

  21. #196
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    A short term effect shouldn't be discounted if it kills people.
    I'm not discounting short term effects, it's just that nuclear power has short-term, long-term, extremely long-term and inconceivably long-term risks.

    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Second, there are many long term effects from other energy sources. Accumulating greenhouse gasses, poisoning forests & lakes with acid rain, huge open mining scars, slurry ponds, changing whole landscapes with dams, contaminating oceans and long stretches of coastline with oil - these are not short term effects.
    Compared to the persistent danger of certain waste products of nuclear power, the effects you list are short term by several orders of magnitude, decades and centuries compared to millennia and eons.

    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Also, the 5000 generations is a bit of an exaggeration. The main radioisotopes which pose a health risk from nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are Iodine 131, Cesium 137, and Strontium 90. Iodine 131 has a half life of just 8 days, which is why the pills are effective. Cesium 137 and Strontium 90 have half lives of something like 30 years.
    We must remember that half-life doesn't mean the risk vanishes. It diminishes but it persists.

    A generation is normally considered to be twenty years. Cesium 137, like other radioisotopes, causes genetic damage. So while it would “only” directly effect three or four generations, its indirect effect would be transmitted to many more than that.

    Plutonium 239 has a half-life of 24,000 years. That's 1,200 generations that could be directly affected. Given that some toxic radioisotopes have half-lives measured in millions of years, 5000 generations is an understatement of the deferred risk, not an exaggeration.

    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    EDIT: As you can probably tell, I have a bit of bug up my ass about energy policy. I just get frustrated because there is always widespread support for the IDEA of reducing CO2 and moving away from fossil fuels, but the support always falls apart when you get real about doing it. The only sources of energy that don't draw opposition are the hypothetical ones that people haven't really thought through yet.
    Nuclear power could indeed reduce atmospheric CO2. Unfortunately hubris, greed, neglect and ignorance guarantee that serious nuclear accidents will occur more frequently than we'd care to admit. Given the time scale of the contamination, can we justify burdening people in the deep future with invisible poisons? Isn’t the deferral of risk to subsequent generations the reason we are still mired in fossil fuel?
    Last edited by Nicker; 27th Mar 2011 at 02:46.

  22. #197
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Quote Originally Posted by Nicker View Post
    A generation is normally considered to be twenty years. Cesium 137, like other radioisotopes, causes genetic damage. So while it would “only” directly effect three or four generations, its indirect effect would be transmitted to many more than that.
    That's speculative. The damage from ionizing radiation is random and not targeted to particular DNA chains, so theoretically it would increase the overall rate of common birth defects just like alcohol, drugs, and other poisons do. But the impact to subsequent generations would be no worse than other causes of birth defects. It wouldn't breed a race of mutant humans like in science fiction movies.

    And there's still no conclusive evidence of human birth defects caused by radioactive fallout. We've studied Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors and found no significant increase in birth defects among their offspring. For Chernobyl, the most scientifically authoritative study to date concluded that there were no reproductive or inherited effects. There have been smaller studies which found higher rates of birth defects in some regions impacted by Chernobyl compared to European norms. But unfortunately they haven't collected data on the parents' radiation exposure and didn't control for other risk factors for birth defects such as alcohol, diet, mental health, general poverty. So it's still not certain that nuclear accidents cause first generation birth defects, let alone inherited ones.

    The primary health risk is cancer in parts of the body where radioisotopes accumulate due to natural body chemical processes, such as Iodine in the Thyroid. I don't think the typical radioisotopes accumulate in reproductive organs, which may be why they haven't had more significant reproductive effects.

    Plutonium 239 has a half-life of 24,000 years. That's 1,200 generations that could be directly affected. Given that some toxic radioisotopes have half-lives measured in millions of years, 5000 generations is an understatement of the deferred risk, not an exaggeration.
    It is an exaggeration. Here are a few reasons why:

    1. Radioactivity is inversely related to half-life. Long half life = slow decay = low radiation level = less dangerous. For example, you can handle enriched Uranium or Plutonium in your hands without shielding. Also, the long lived isotopes decay by alpha particle emission, which is much less harmful than beta decay.

    2. Plutonium and Uranium tend to remain in the fuel rods because they are heavy and not water soluble and don't escape into the environment in significant quantities unless the core explodes. A core explosion happened at Chernobyl but would not happen at Fukushima due to the reactor design. In contrast, burning coal releases lots of radioactive Uranium and Thorium.

    3. Because their oxides aren't water soluble and aren't involved in any metabolic processes, Plutonium and Uranium don't tend to be absorbed into the food chain. And if they are ingested, they generally pass right through the digestive system without being absorbed. The bigger risk of exposure to these elements comes from inhaling particles in dust and smoke, but that's a short term risk. Note the Plutonium released into the environment by above ground nuclear testing can be found in soil and sediment layers all around the world but poses no health risk.

    Almost all the health risk from a nuclear accident comes from the fission products which beta decay, and generally the shorter the half life, the more dangerous. Of those, Iodine-131 is by far the worst because it's highly radioactive and concentrates in one place in the body. Cesium-137 poses the primary long term risk, with a half life of around 30 years.

    Nuclear power could indeed reduce atmospheric CO2. Unfortunately hubris, greed, neglect and ignorance guarantee that serious nuclear accidents will occur more frequently than we'd care to admit. Given the time scale of the contamination, can we justify burdening people in the deep future with invisible poisons? Isn’t the deferral of risk to subsequent generations the reason we are still mired in fossil fuel?
    Then how do we justify killing people now AND burdening people in the future with other power sources more risky and damaging than nuclear? Also, what do you mean by "more frequently than we'd care to admit"? By my count, we've only had two accidents so far that posed a health risk. We can go through the numbers again comparing the human & environmental impacts of nuclear power compared to other sources. But nuclear accidents would have to occur far more frequently to make it an interesting comparison.

    BTW, I personally think there as much or more hubris on the anti-nuke side from being impervious to logical and scientific argument.

  23. #198
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: LTSI
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    For Chernobyl, the most scientifically authoritative study to date concluded that there were no reproductive or inherited effects.
    Chernobyl raised mutations 600%

    Children of the "liquidators" - those drafted in to clear up the Chernobyl disaster - suffer seven times the mutation rate of offspring whose parents were not exposed to radiation, research published today by the Royal Society shows.

    The "unexpectedly high" mutation rate, discovered by using DNA fingerprinting techniques, means that a significant proportion of the world's population doing jobs where even low-level radiation is present are exposing their unborn children to increased risk, the researchers say.

    Families in which one child was conceived before the accident and one later were tested, along with control groups from areas with no radiation exposure. The increases in mutation rates as a result of the parents being exposed to ionising radiation was "highly significant", the paper says.
    .

  24. #199
    Previously Important
    Registered: Nov 1999
    Location: Caer Weasel, Uelekevu
    You forgot my favourite part: "The new findings show that the radiation from the stricken Ukrainian reactor affected the sperm of fathers, leading to mutation in the DNA of the children. None of them showed physical deformities, because the DNA changes were slight, but the long-term effects are not known."

    So, we have an article from the Guardian with a headline containing the word MUTATIONS and the fun number 600%!!!!! None of it means anything. There might be a potential increase in the chance of perhaps contracting a form of some disease. And their sperms are flying wonky.

    lols at "unexpectedly high" because you know that's not a quote, it's a euphemism.

  25. #200
    Member
    Registered: May 2002
    wow, must be getting really desperate. They are admitting more shit.

    Japanese authorities say efforts to control Fukushima’s overheated reactors will take months and during that time radiation will continue to leak into the environment, extending a nuclear emergency that already ranks as the most serious in a quarter-century.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...FiB_story.html

    Don't you be putting the word mutation in this equation.

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