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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

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  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    16 19.75%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    20 24.69%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    38 46.91%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    0 0%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    7 8.64%
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Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

  1. #5976
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Seems you've never heard of how purges work in autocratic regimes. It's always about rooting out corruption. It just happens that the "corrupt people" also happen to be people who are in the way of those who are consolidating power.

  2. #5977
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    LOL. Who would ever believe Tony would call Goldmoon on BS? It's hilarious to see any intelligent intentions attributed to a narcissist blowhard know nothing like Trump anyway but this is too rich. Great theater. And Goldmoon claiming Trump is "draining the swamp" when his tax plan feeds the average folks to the gators is a laugh riot. Increasing the deficit by one and a half trillion not to pull us out of depression but simply to give it to the rich and where are the deficit hawks that pulled their hair out over Obama pulling us from the brink with a little boost to the under class? LOL what a bunch of gullible idiots led by the ultra wealthy to give up the country for their profit margins.

    By all means keep up the chatter you morons. It's a peek into the weird warped logic of the far right. Hate Hillary still when it makes not a damn but ignore the idiocy of Trump and his decisions at all cost and that being the nations best interests. Rooting out corruption? LOL. They show they are in the pockets of the ultra wealthy with every decision they make and you have the gall to say that? Seriously? What a laugh. Keep it up though. You have no idea how you are exposing yourself. Trump who encourages the domination of the wealthy over the welfare of the citizenry is supposed to have influenced the Saudis to do better? LOL. Great. What joke are you going to post next?

  3. #5978
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Speaking of autocratic regimes, one of the highlights of last week was Lord Dampnut sucking up to China, saying how great the country was and how he doesn't blame China and how actually USA is at fault. I guess it's not so easy to call them rapists to their face, is it? Or maybe the royal treatment softened him up.

  4. #5979
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    Quote Originally Posted by Tocky View Post
    LOL. Who would ever believe Tony would call Goldmoon on BS?
    Oh Tocky, thats not the first time lmao.

    Also, I was just asking questions, ones that obviously struck a few sour notes on you! But thanks, that was pretty much the answer I was expecting anyway. Finally, I am not "alt-right", I have no political leaning, I am just a *human*.

  5. #5980
    Quote Originally Posted by Goldmoon Dawn View Post
    It comes down to economics. They are rooting out the corruption for economic reasons. After looking things over, they have come to realise that corruption in their system is too costly. Interesting that this comes only five months after Trump was talking with them about their system, and even had them chanting "Drain the swamp". One step closer...
    The CHINESE are doing that (at least, that's part of their motivation). I have seen no indication that the Saudis have set aside enough hubris to have any attitude other than "fuck you, we do what we want".


    And Goldmoon claiming Trump is "draining the swamp" when his tax plan feeds the average folks to the gators is a laugh riot. Increasing the deficit by one and a half trillion not to pull us out of depression but simply to give it to the rich and where are the deficit hawks that pulled their hair out over Obama pulling us from the brink with a little boost to the under class?
    Erm....I both have a graduate degree in that field and work in it currently. If you think this tax bill is "giving it to the rich" then I don't have any way to explain it here that's both informative and concise. I instead point you towards any one of the numerous free Corporate Finance courses you can find for free on the web. Most of those explain enough of the basic logic that you'll develop a more comprehensive understanding of tax issues.

    There's a couple of key provisions in this bill that would be detrimental to the ability of corporations and the mega-rich to shield their wealth such as putting a tax surcharge on transfers to foreign subsidiaries. Also keep in mind that government bonds (the single biggest component of where of the "rich" park their money) are going to take a massive hit to their value as a result of decreasing the corporate tax rate. There's some significant math involved but, at it's most basic level, this is because corporate interest expense occurs pre-tax from the business's perspective and from the investor's perspective only corporate bond interest is taxable which decreases their value relative to Treasury securities.

    Unfortunately, because of those same provisions there is no way in hell that the Republican congress is actually going to pass the proposals in their current form.


    LOL what a bunch of gullible idiots led by the ultra wealthy to give up the country for their profit margins.
    https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/c...s?id=n00000019



    edit: For reference, top Trump donors. There's one disparity visible immediately
    https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/c...s?id=n00023864
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 12th Nov 2017 at 15:31.

  6. #5981
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Please, please, please, T_T, could you include the source of the quotes? The first one in your post I can see where it came from and can read the whole thing if I want. The second two I can't, unless I scroll through previous posts to try and find them. None of them seem to be on this page. Does your multi-quote not work?

  7. #5982
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    nickie, it was Tocky's post, from this page. Post #5977


  8. #5983
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    Tony you know damn well that since Citizens United passed the superpacks keep their records hidden and the only ones to show are those who want to show it. Look not at that but at who Trump attempts to reward for your answer as to who he is beholding to.

  9. #5984
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    In the last show of the season, John Oliver did a segment on Lord Dampnut setting new, lower standards in US politics:


  10. #5985
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    So, how again is Lord Dampnut draining the swamp, exactly?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/11/13/trumps-pick-to-lower-drug-prices-is-a-former-pharma-executive-who-raised-them/

    President Trump's pick for health secretary previously served as a high-ranking executive at a pharmaceutical company that repeatedly raised the prices of its drugs, doubling the U.S. list price of its top-selling insulin over the five years he served as a company president.

  11. #5986
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by Goldmoon Dawn View Post
    nickie, it was Tocky's post, from this page. Post #5977
    Many thanks. I should have looked more closely but it would have helped if I'd known it was Tocky's post.

    Edit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    John Oliver
    The video 'isn't available in my country' so I can't check but is that the one which covers 'whataboutism'?

  12. #5987
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    The video 'isn't available in my country' so I can't check but is that the one which covers 'whataboutism'?
    Yes, it's the one about delegitimising the media, whataboutism and trolling.

  13. #5988
    New Member
    Registered: Nov 2017
    Location: Vancouver Island - BC

    North Korea sentences Trump to death

    A North Korean newspaper just reported that Donald Trump should be (or is) sentenced to death. Pretty sure Trump won't take it lightly and I'm a bit worried that he will call it a direct threat on the US and it's president then declare war on North Korea. What worries me the most is - the Russian investigation seems to be heating up - Trump likes to divert attention and a war with North Korea would certainly do that. Cheers!

  14. #5989
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Erm....I both have a graduate degree in that field and work in it currently. If you think this tax bill is "giving it to the rich" then I don't have any way to explain it here that's both informative and concise. I instead point you towards any one of the numerous free Corporate Finance courses you can find for free on the web. Most of those explain enough of the basic logic that you'll develop a more comprehensive understanding of tax issues.

    There's a couple of key provisions in this bill that would be detrimental to the ability of corporations and the mega-rich to shield their wealth such as putting a tax surcharge on transfers to foreign subsidiaries. Also keep in mind that government bonds (the single biggest component of where of the "rich" park their money) are going to take a massive hit to their value as a result of decreasing the corporate tax rate. There's some significant math involved but, at it's most basic level, this is because corporate interest expense occurs pre-tax from the business's perspective and from the investor's perspective only corporate bond interest is taxable which decreases their value relative to Treasury securities.
    I wanted to just stay out of this but I can't seem to. I fully understand the logic rich folks are pushing. They are doing the same thing they have done for time immemorial. They are explaining why it's okay for them to constantly get a bigger slice of the pie than everyone else. And you have done graduate work in that? LOL. Well they are always looking for folks like you so it's a growing field. Just leave your soul at the door and come on in. What exactly do you practice?

    I don't need corporate finance courses but thank you for your concern. I fully understand how they move their money around and how very little of it goes down through the economy. Republicans are constantly pushing trickle down when the real truth is that money only trickles down in tiny increments where instead it gushes up when applied at the bottom and goes through many hands along the way benefiting all levels of the economy. One need only to see the growing gap between rich and poor to understand what is going on and it ain't good. It's not good for the economy and social stability but the rich have never given a damn about anything but getting more money.

    There is no way in hell that 1.5 to 1.9 trillion will get absorbed by a growing economy. 100 billion at most and you know it. We were on an upward trend and are continuing on it but that will drop like a rock when the market bubble bursts. The money will not be invested in the American people. All it will do is go to big investors. Many corporations have already stated that. It will stay at the top where it will do little good. The rich understand that a top heavy monetary system will topple but don't care. Cheap labor when the depression hits. Then we will have everyone here go to the level of Chinese workers. Man those Chinese have shown them the way to get folks to work long hours for subsistence wages and they are drooling for that.

    No health care and long hours for low wages. I can hardly wait.

  15. #5990
    Quote Originally Posted by Tocky View Post
    Tony you know damn well that since Citizens United passed the superpacks keep their records hidden and the only ones to show are those who want to show it. Look not at that but at who Trump attempts to reward for your answer as to who he is beholding to.
    That' already been studied in depth. If you'd actually read into that you would know that the overwhelming majority of SuperPAC spending in 2016 was opposed to Trump rather than for him. This is from freakin HuffPo: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0e655eab6f34e. It's a site that has an editors note at the bottom bashing Trump. If you go to an actually neutral site (like say....any one of the databases that track this kind of thing) the picture gets even more skewed from what Huffpo portrays.

    There's a few exceptions; the most notable are Mercer and Sheldon Adelson.....both of whom are known to work directly with the Israeli government to influence US politics in the direction they want (which is probably where you'll find real "collusion" on Trump's part but you'll never see looked at because the media doesn't have a problem with that).


    I don't need corporate finance courses but thank you for your concern. I fully understand how they move their money around and how very little of it goes down through the economy. Republicans are constantly pushing trickle down when the real truth is that money only trickles down in tiny increments where instead it gushes up when applied at the bottom and goes through many hands along the way benefiting all levels of the economy. One need only to see the growing gap between rich and poor to understand what is going on and it ain't good. It's not good for the economy and social stability but the rich have never given a damn about anything but getting more money.
    "I refuse to educate myself on what this means and on how corporate taxes work, but I'm sure it's bad because Trump is pushing it" isn't much of an argument. I also find it mildly humorous that you're talking about how the rich are "drooling" to get things from Trump that both Hillary and Jeb were openly promising to give them behind closed doors......TPP would have been the biggest gift to the super rich in the same way that Clinton's NAFT and repeal of the Volcker rule were.

    Besides which it isn't as simple as just looking at the top line tax rate. There a LOT of companies out there that would see a massive increase in their effective tax rate if things like a tax of offshore holdings were to pass. You don't need to even know much to figure that out. Every year you can find lists of huge companies that paid under 5% on taxes or even got a REBATE despite pulling in billions in profit. This kind of thing simply can not be analyzed accurately by looking at just the top line change. You have to look at the bottom line impact that nets the impact of every single change made, big or small.

    Example on an individual level: Let's say you make $100,000 a year. You're paying a 40% of your income in taxes (not an unreasonable estimate in places like NJ or CA)and I cut your taxes to 35%.....but at the same time I eliminate mortgage deductions worth $10,000. Did you just get a tax break or a tax increase?

    Same logic applies for business taxes. They're complicated to such a degree that in most cases the nominal tax rate means very little.

    There is no way in hell that 1.5 to 1.9 trillion will get absorbed by a growing economy. 100 billion at most and you know it. We were on an upward trend and are continuing on it but that will drop like a rock when the market bubble bursts
    The market bubble isn't going to burst. I take huge issue with contemporary thought on this matter because it tends to rest on the assumption that there's some arbitrary price above which the market is "overvalued". Real life doesn't work that way. If you're a non-US entity with a huge amount of money you need to park, where on earth are you going to put it? It would be insane to put that money in European debt or equities given what' going on politically and with their economy. China's currency and debt simply haven't matured enough yet to be a good holding position, and contrary to popular belief you can't really stash a few hundred million or a few billion under the matress or in a vault somewhere and actually be able to use that money.....and keep in mind that the $100,000 EUD/USD account insurance means jack shit on that scale.

    Where else are you gonna put it? US Equity indexes.

    Markets will continue to go up and it has relatively little to do with the US economy being good. It's just because everywhere else is getting shittier to invest in. If you want quantitative proof look at charts of global capital flows over the past few months/years (which, by the way, is a great way to consistently make money on macro-based trades because almost NOBODY is taught to look at that even in Ivy League finance/econ programs).




    On that note I've got another conspiracy theory I'd like to float. You know how I think it's just kinda one big, unusual "coincidence" that people associated with the shadier parts of the Clinton's dealings keep shooting themselves multiple times in the back of the head?

    I'm starting to become somewhat skeptical that it's just a "coincidence" how celebrities who make a huge deal of bashing Trump suddenly find themselves attacked by career ending PR disasters on their part. It's almost as if there's someone deliberately leaking dirt on Trump enemies or something like that.....but nah, I'm sure that's just random happenstance.
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 15th Nov 2017 at 22:16.

  16. #5991
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    On that note I've got another conspiracy theory I'd like to float. You know how I think it's just kinda one big, unusual "coincidence" that people associated with the shadier parts of the Clinton's dealings keep shooting themselves multiple times in the back of the head?
    I saw this posted elsewhere concerning Clinton's body count.

    List every dead person with even the most tenuous of connections to your subject. It doesn’t matter how these people died, or how tangential they were to your subject’s life. The longer the list, the more impressive it looks and the less likely anyone is to challenge it. By the time readers get to the bottom of the list, they’ll be too weary to wonder what could possibly be relevant about the death of people such as Bill Clinton’s mother’s chiropractor.

    Play word games. Make sure every death is presented as “mysterious.” All accidental deaths are to be labelled “suspicious,” even though by definition accidents occur when something unexpected goes wrong. Every self-inflicted death discussed must include the phrase “ruled a suicide” to imply just the opposite. When an autopsy contradicts a “mysterious death” theory, dispute it; when none was performed because none was needed, claim that “no autopsy was allowed.” Make liberal use of words such as ‘allegedly’ and ‘supposedly’ to dismiss facts you can’t support or contradict with hard evidence.

    Make sure every inconsistency or unexplained detail you can dredge up is offered as evidence of a conspiracy, no matter how insignificant or pointless it may be. If an obvious suicide is discovered wearing only one shoe, ignore the physical evidence of self-inflicted death and dwell on the missing shoe. You don’t have to establish an alternate theory of the death; just keep harping that the missing shoe “can’t be explained.”

    If the data doesn’t fit your conclusion, ignore it. You don’t have to explain why the people who claimed to have the most damaging goods on Clinton (e.g., Gennifer Flowers, Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Linda Tripp, Monica Lewinsky, Kenneth Starr), are still walking around unscathed while dozens of bit players have been bumped off. It’s inconvenient for you, so don’t mention it.

    Most important, don’t let facts and details stand in your way! If you can pass off a death by pneumonia as a “suicide,” do it! If a cause of death contradicts your conspiracy theory, claim it was “never determined.” If your chronology of events is impossible, who cares? It’s not like anybody is going to check up on this stuff.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Again
    I'm starting to become somewhat skeptical that it's just a "coincidence" how celebrities who make a huge deal of bashing Trump suddenly find themselves attacked by career ending PR disasters on their part. It's almost as if there's someone deliberately leaking dirt on Trump enemies or something like that.....but nah, I'm sure that's just random happenstance.
    I doubt anyone in the Trump administration is leaking sexual harassment/assault allegations against their enemies in Hollywood, simply because...

    A. It's an issue that's been boiling for awhile now, even before anyone would even dream Trump had a chance at the presidency, and has just finally blown open.

    B. Considering the subject matter, it'd have a better than zero chance of coming around and taking Trump out alongside the critics he's trying to ruin.

  17. #5992
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    Guys, I have long since happily given up on this charade, but I now see the "Tax Reform" is going to the senate. Can someone who is still following this joke called politics please explain to me, in detail, what exactly happens with this tax reform? All the good and the bad please. Thank you. Peace.

  18. #5993
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2000
    Location: Portreath Cornwall UK
    On top of all the rest of the crap Donald Trump is responsible for he is now encouraging the holocaust of the African elephant.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42005819

    Apparently his sons enjoy trophy hunting.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/funder/st...anada-42005819

  19. #5994
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    Tony we are operating from two different concerns. You want to show how the wealthy aren't getting it so good and may be moved to bring back some money to the US to park it here (and it WILL be parked and not circulated) and using things I've heard before which amount to a shuffle of taxes with the deficit being the loser. What I'm concerned with is the American economy.

    I never said any of the crap you put in my mouth. I don't give a damn whether Hillary would have done this or that. I'm concerned with here and now. The net effect of this is that the wealthy get a big tax windfall at the expense of our future. Nothing you said changes that. They also get things like estate tax elimination and a few other things which help Trump personally but I could give a damn. If it were coming out of a surplus and the rich were paying so well that education, health, infrastructure, and all other social concerns were taken care of by a great living wage I would have no concern but that is NOT what is happening. The gap is growing and we are giving up our future to feed a further widening of it.

    You said the markets are not tied to the US economy being good. Well that's a yes and no. In the short run I agree but in the long run there is only so much ignoring of reality the markets can do. When you run a nation into the ground and stack debt on top of debt expecting it will be met forever no matter how high then at some point you will become disabused of the notion the money merry go round will never stop. It's one thing to go into debt to crank up the economy and another to crank up the market.

    I understand where you are coming from. A total supply side view. But there has to be a balance.

  20. #5995
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
    That's how it goes
    Everybody knows

  21. #5996
    Quote Originally Posted by Tocky View Post
    Tony we are operating from two different concerns. You want to show how the wealthy aren't getting it so good and may be moved to bring back some money to the US to park it here (and it WILL be parked and not circulated) and using things I've heard before which amount to a shuffle of taxes with the deficit being the loser. What I'm concerned with is the American economy.

    I never said any of the crap you put in my mouth. I don't give a damn whether Hillary would have done this or that. I'm concerned with here and now. The net effect of this is that the wealthy get a big tax windfall at the expense of our future. Nothing you said changes that. They also get things like estate tax elimination and a few other things which help Trump personally but I could give a damn. If it were coming out of a surplus and the rich were paying so well that education, health, infrastructure, and all other social concerns were taken care of by a great living wage I would have no concern but that is NOT what is happening. The gap is growing and we are giving up our future to feed a further widening of it.

    You said the markets are not tied to the US economy being good. Well that's a yes and no. In the short run I agree but in the long run there is only so much ignoring of reality the markets can do. When you run a nation into the ground and stack debt on top of debt expecting it will be met forever no matter how high then at some point you will become disabused of the notion the money merry go round will never stop. It's one thing to go into debt to crank up the economy and another to crank up the market.

    I understand where you are coming from. A total supply side view. But there has to be a balance.
    And again, there's a lot in there.

    My point is the exact OPPOSITE of "how the wealthy aren't getting it so good". They have it pretty damn good under the current system, so you can expect the Senate version of the bill to be one that works very hard to do what is advantageous to the currently wealthy.

    You need to understand that not all "rich" are equivalent. A massive hedge fund investor like Warren Buffet, someone like a Zuckerburg who has securitized most of his wealth, a real estate magnate who owns billions of properties, and the guy who is "rich" from owning and operating a local franchise or manufacturer aren't even remotely in the same bucket as to how their wealth is treated under current tax law.

    Currently the tax system is massively rigged in favor of Warren Buffet type financial investors and for corporate entities, while being massively against the "working wealthy" who actually own and produce physical assets.

    The tax bill tends to benefit the "rich" while a lot of the provisions will actually be harmful to the mega rich who simply don't give a damn about tax raises or breaks.


    And yes, a lot of the way this data works is highly counerintuitive when you just analyze the data and trends.

    I would suggest that you should be less worry about the headlines and look more at some of the data behind inequality.

    Here's two charts:







    The second one is particularly important. I would posit that the biggest source of income inequality isn't the nominal top bracket tax rate, but the huge gap between capital gains rates and normal rates that people pay.

    Think about it. Your average Hedge Funder is getting most of income through what's called "Carry" (increase in the fund's equity that they get to keep after deals are run to completion). That means that people like Romney are paying in some cases a third of what any person making their money by owning an operating business is. People like real estate investors who make their money by selling properties get to count those earnings as capital gains as well.

    Only having to pay a third of the taxes massively rigs the game in favor of the extremely wealthy.


    You said the markets are not tied to the US economy being good. Well that's a yes and no. In the short run I agree but in the long run there is only so much ignoring of reality the markets can do
    Not entirely correct. Capital has to go somewhere, hence my comment. The idea is that in this case the US economy being "good" just means good relative to everywhere else and not that there's been some kind of massive objective improvement here.

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