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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

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  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    18 18.37%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    27 27.55%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    43 43.88%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    0 0%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    10 10.20%
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Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

  1. #7251
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    North Korea was never seeking peace with the US or to give up their nuclear weapons. They want the US to recognise them and treat them as equals and to appear strong, especially internally. And Lord Dampnut has delivered in spades.
    He certainly has...

    Current Trump negotiation status:

    - American hostages have been returned.

    - The tension between North Korea, South Korea, and Japan is deescalating.

    ...and now

    - North Korea has dismantled their nuclear testing site.



    I predict with a high degree of certainty that North Korea will plead for the summit to commence, due to the tactical use of the "letter of cancellation".

    ...and as such, this will play into Trump's negotiation strategy.

  2. #7252
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Ha, "tactical use". Good one. And "negotiation strategy", even better.

    North Korea releasing prisoners is nothing for them. Obama negotiated the release of prisoners and even Clinton did that as late as in 2009.

  3. #7253
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Trump's success thus far with the North Koreans isn't unprecedented success. He's made the same inroads with the regime since, geez, H.W Bush? Agreement to a ceasefire? End to nuclear proliferation? A release of prisoners? Agreements to talks? This is all par for the course. It's what they do whenever they want something. Throw a tantrum, get some attention, make some concessions, get some food or financial support, end tantrum for 2-4 years. The formula should be well known by now.

    The only difference here is Trump, and his tendency to scream I AM THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF ALL TIME each usual step of the way.

    And I love how NK blowing up their testing facilities is being shown as a victory for Trump, when it's common knowledge that the site is heavily irradiated, and no longer usable. They're disposing of something that costs them nothing to dispose of, and they intended to dispose of anyway.

  4. #7254
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    I remember when Bolton was critisising Obama for negotiating the release of prisoners. Now of course it's the best thing ever and people try to bend over backwards to praise Lord Dampnut for the same thing they damned Obama for.

  5. #7255
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    That's the story of our current ills in a nutshell, isn't it?

    It isn't what's done that's important. It's who does it that matters.

  6. #7256
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Ha, "tactical use". Good one. And "negotiation strategy", even better.
    Oh look what we have here...

    North Korea says it's still willing to resolve issues with US after Trump cancels summit

    North Korea's vice foreign minister Kim Kye Gwan said the North is open to resolving issues with the United States whenever and however, after U.S. President Donald Trump called off a June summit with its leader, Kim Jong Un.

    "We had set in high regards President Trump's efforts, unprecedented by any other president, to create a historic North Korea-U.S. summit," said the vice foreign minister in a statement released on Friday by the North's central news agency.

    "We tell the United States once more that we are open to resolving problems at any time in any way," he said.


  7. #7257
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    You know, honestly, I kinda wish it'd happen. Regardless what you think of Comey, Obama, Hillary, et al., they're a professional bunch well versed in the law. The results of dragging them all up front of the wild, wooly, highly emotional Trumpist crowd would probably end up looking more like an attempt at a kangaroo court than it would be an official hearing.

    ...which is the reason why it'll never happen. It's not so much that these heinous people need to be brought to justice, so long as the idea that the idea that they're a bunch of heinous people is kept afloat among their hangers-on.
    Speaking of which, just found this compilation that really captures this elaborate fantasy of a grand conspiracy against Lord Dampnut:



    Propaganda network doesn't even begin to describe it.

  8. #7258
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    Oh look what we have here...
    Yes, and now North Korea looks like the aggrieved party. Stop trying to twist an international humiliation into a victory. And if Lord Dampnut agrees to resume the talks, he looks even more fickle.

    On a related topic, here's an article about just a few of the foreign policy blunders Lord Dampnut's administration has made:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...rrives/561209/

    When a president speaks, others hear. When he acts, he sets in motion a chain of reactions. When he selects one option, he precludes others.

    This is why presidents are surrounded by elaborate staff systems to help them—and oblige them—to think through their words and actions.

    If we impose tariffs on Chinese products, how might they retaliate? What’s our next move after that?

    If we want to pressure Iran more tightly than our predecessors, what buy-in will we need from other countries? What will they want in return?

    What do we want from North Korea that we can realistically get?

    Team Trump does not engage in exercises like this.

    Team Trump does not do it because the president does not do it. His idea of foreign policy is to bark orders like an emperor, without thinking very hard about how to enforce compliance or what to do if compliance is not forthcoming.

    The administration canceled the Iran deal without first gaining European, Chinese, Japanese, or Indian cooperation for new sanctions.

    Trump started a trade war with China without any plan for response to the inevitable Chinese counter-moves.

    He enthusiastically pounced on a possible U.S.-North Korea summit in the false belief that such a summit represented a huge concession to the United States rather than—correctly—a huge concession by the United States.

    The result: China pushed back on trade, and Trump blinked and retreated. The whole world saw him blink and retreat. Having yielded to powerful China, Trump is now salving his ego with a plan for new tariffs on cars from Japan, Mexico, and Canada.

    The result: The U.S. has abjured its right to inspect Iranian nuclear facilities without any workable plan to impose global sanctions instead. India and China each trade more with Iran than with the entirety of the European Union—and neither is very vulnerable to U.S. pressure.

    The result: Having ridiculously inflated hopes of North Korean denuclearization, Trump is now engaged in another ridiculously undignified name-calling match with the North Korean dictator, alienating South Korean opinion by bellicose threats of war.

  9. #7259
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Your response illustrates your lack of understanding the art of negotiation and the expert use of leverage.

    North Korea is not in position to play the "victim game", despite your ridiculous imaginings.

    Ultimately, your bias filter won't save you from your illusions being shattered.

  10. #7260
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    Your response illustrates your lack of understanding the art of negotiation and the expert use of leverage.
    And I'm sure you're a goddamn genius, knowledgeable in the art of all things talk good get deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    Ultimately, your bias filter won't save you from your illusions being shattered.
    Have you ever noticed how the hardcore Trump fans tend to sound like culty moonie types?

    The truth will be visited upon you soon, brother. When it deigns shine its light upon the benighted masses, everything you thought you once knew as truth will burn before the brilliance of its revelations. TRUMP TRAIN MOTHERFUCKKKKKEEERRRS! HELL YEAH!

  11. #7261
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    What leverage? North Korea is never going to give up their "treasured sword of justice". They only have to gain from these talks while the US has only to lose. The US agreeing to the talks alone is a huge victory to them as far as PR is concerned.

  12. #7262
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    What leverage? North Korea is never going to give up their "treasured sword of justice". They only have to gain from these talks while the US has only to lose. The US agreeing to the talks alone is a huge victory to them as far as PR is concerned.
    It's not like we can put more sanctions on them. Their current trading partners are all but ignoring them, keeping them going slow but perpetually steady. It's not like we can pressure China into doing anything. We impose tariffs, they'll tariff us right back, hurting us both. If we randomly attack, hundreds of thousands in Seoul die in an instant, and China will retaliate, leading to a lose lose situation for everyone involved.

    Trump doesn't have a tremendous amount of leverage here. Hell, the US in general have much leverage here, hence why North Korea has been a thorn in everyone's backsides for all these years. If their continued belligerence had an easy, nearly cost free solution that required naught but a good negotiator, it would've been done already.

  13. #7263
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    And I'm sure you're a goddamn genius, knowledgeable in the art of all things talk good get deal.
    If you say so, Renz...

    Have you ever noticed how the hardcore Trump fans tend to sound like culty moonie types?

    The truth will be visited upon you soon, brother. When it deigns shine its light upon the benighted masses, everything you thought you once knew as truth will burn before the brilliance of its revelations. TRUMP TRAIN MOTHERFUCKKKKKEEERRRS! HELL YEAH!
    Yeah, we need to get some of those hardcore Trump fans in this forum...otherwise the hardcore Trump haters will mistakenly try to pigeonhole everyone who doesn't hate Trump as hardcore Trump supporters!...

  14. #7264
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    You come across as pretty sycophantic towards the guy, Vae. It's hard to mistake you for anything but a hardcore Trump fan.

  15. #7265
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    It's not like we can put more sanctions on them. Their current trading partners are all but ignoring them, keeping them going slow but perpetually steady. It's not like we can pressure China into doing anything. We impose tariffs, they'll tariff us right back, hurting us both. If we randomly attack, hundreds of thousands in Seoul die in an instant, and China will retaliate, leading to a lose lose situation for everyone involved.

    Trump doesn't have a tremendous amount of leverage here. Hell, the US in general have much leverage here, hence why North Korea has been a thorn in everyone's backsides for all these years. If their continued belligerence had an easy, nearly cost free solution that required naught but a good negotiator, it would've been done already.
    Yep, the China border is like a broken sieve and bomb making materials are pouring through. Obama did try sanctions aimed at the party leadership, but you can only do so much with China backing them up. Overall, I'd say that Obama's idea of strategic patience, targeted sanctions, and not giving in to provocations was a far more sensible idea than anything tried so far.

  16. #7266
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    the art of negotiation and the expert use of leverage.
    :lul: Surprise! Donald Trump is terrible at diplomacy.

    Quote Originally Posted by WaPo
    President Trump is widely reported, after 16 months on the job, to feel unleashed. Naysayers like economic adviser Gary Cohn and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have been banished. White House chief of staff John F. Kelly has, to a large extent, been sidelined. Trump is listening to Sean Hannity and doing what he wants.

    And how’s that working out? To judge by the evidence of Trump’s dealings with China and North Korea this week, it’s been a disaster. The Trump Train just jumped the tracks.

    Trump marched into a confrontation with China – America’s top trade partner – in the serene confidence that “trade wars are good and easy to win.” As recently as Tuesday, he was claiming: “When you’re losing $500 billion a year, you can’t lose in terms of a negotiation.” (The U.S. trade deficit with China is actually $375 billion; $506 billion is the amount of goods the U.S. imports from China – and we’re not losing that money, we are getting sneakers and LED displays in return. But then this president traffics in attitudes, not facts.)

    Trump evidently thought he would threaten China with tariffs, and Beijing would fold as quickly as one of the vendors he has made a practice of stiffing. Not so fast. China retaliated by stopping purchases of U.S. soybeans, hurting the farm states whose votes Trump needs. China also made plain it wasn’t going to pressure North Korea into concessions as long as Trump was threatening its trade.

    Lo and behold, Trump caved. First he tweeted that he would lift sanctions on Chinese telecom giant ZTE before kind of, sort of, walking it back. And then this week he ran up the white flag altogether, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying that the trade war is “on hold.” (Who knew that wars, like phone calls, could be put “on hold”?)

    Trump’s trade negotiators had been pushing for China to buy $200 billion more from the U.S. annually – a fantastical figure that U.S. factories and farms could not produce even if they wanted to. China refused, and the administration settled for a vague commitment to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. goods. Trump supporters such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R.-Fla.) correctly labeled this a “surrender,” because it did nothing to address China’s theft of U.S. intellectual property. Trump responded with an incomprehensible tweet: “Our Trade Deal with China is moving along nicely, but in the end we will probably have to use a different structure in that this will be too hard to get done and to verify results after completion.”

    No one knows what that means, aside from the obvious: Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing and what he’s talking about, and therefore he can’t get a “great deal” from China or anyone else.

    The experience of North Korea confirms that thesis. Back in March, Trump rushed into a meeting with Kim Jong Un with, as I wrote, “all the forethought that he might give to deciding between a Big Mac and a Quarter Pounder.” Normally summits with world leaders do not occur without a long process of quiet negotiations of the kind that preceded Richard Nixon’s trip to China in 1972. Trump, ignorant of history and disdainful of established procedures, decided he would meet Kim without the necessary preparation.

    As the hype intensified, Trump started talking as if North Korea had already agreed to give up a nuclear program it had spent decades and billions of dollars developing. “Wow,” he tweeted a month ago, “we haven’t given up anything & they have agreed to denuclearization (so great for World), site closure, & no more testing!” The White House military office minted a coin to mark the historic “peace talks” between Trump and “Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un,” while Trump’s toadies in Congress nominated him for a preemptive Nobel Peace Prize.

    Good news for the White House speechwriting office: You can stop struggling over your drafts of the Nobel acceptance speech. Trump just called off the summit, apparently without notifying U.S. allies in South Korea, employing the kind of letter that he might have written to a high school crush with whom he was breaking up. (“I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me…,” he wrote wistfully. “Some day, I look very much forward to meeting you.”) Heartbreaking, but a good call after two weeks of rhetoric making clear that the North Koreans just aren’t that into “denuclearization” – something that Trump could have learned by talking to anyone who knows anything about North Korea.

    The North Koreans were particularly perturbed by national security adviser John Bolton, followed by President Trump and Vice President Pence, citing the “Libya model,” since Moammar Gaddafi was killed eight years after agreeing to give up his weapons of mass destruction. It was entirely predictable that invoking Qaddafi’s fate was not the way to wring concessions from Pyongyang. Rather, it only reinforced Kim’s desire to keep his nuclear arsenal, because he knows that the United States has never attacked a nuclear-armed state.

    So this is what Trump has gotten by trusting his fabled “gut”: two humiliating diplomatic defeats in the course of one week. The only surprise is that anyone is surprised, given that his infallible instincts had previously led him into six corporate bankruptcies. If Trump writes a book about his White House years it should be called “The Art of the Debacle.”
    Last edited by demagogue; 25th May 2018 at 10:14.

  17. #7267
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    At least they didn't issue any coins commemorating the 2018 US--China trade war victory.

    I haven't had time to read a whole lot about the China trade talks, but what an amateur hour that was. The US negotiating team was backstabbing each other, publicly airing dirty laundry, and leaking important negotiating positions. Even if China had been on board to reducing the trade deficit, of course they were going to deny it after the US leaked it and bragged about it in public. And likewise Lord Dampnut tweeting about helping ZTE led to an entirely predictable backlash at home.

    Who knew trade deals and peace talks could be so complicated?

  18. #7268
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    What leverage? North Korea is never going to give up their "treasured sword of justice". They only have to gain from these talks while the US has only to lose. The US agreeing to the talks alone is a huge victory to them as far as PR is concerned.
    When a desperate adversary has nuclear weapons and ICBMs, you have something to gain from negotiating with them.
    Another thing that the US has to gain is finally getting our military forces out of Korea.

    North Korea really just wants sanctions relief so they can trade, borrow money, etc. They can get that without making peace with the US.

  19. #7269
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    North Korea will never agree to denuclearisation, not even when threatened with complete destruction, let alone with the "Libya model". They are not inviting the US to talk so that they can give up the program they have pursued for decades and spent vast amounts of money on.

    Getting US forces out of Korea, that could work, as this is something that North Korea also wants. That's probably the one thing they could agree on.

    As for sanctions, this is a country that is willing to let its own people starve to death, even going as far as refusing food aid without any strings attached. Sanctions have been tried for decades, but long as China is willing to prop them up, they only have a limited effect and are not really worth anything as a bargaining tool as far as nuclear weapons are concerned.

  20. #7270
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2001
    Location: Dromed Detention Room
    China will decide what happens more than the States. They are negotiating with China through a little sock puppet. China doesn't want a unified democratic Korea, South Korea doesn't want to be left alone for invasion, nobody wants nukes fired....the coin minting was way premature. Starker is right, China's "propping up" can hold things up indefinitely.

  21. #7271
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Yes, China will decide what happens. The main reason for North Korea's recent behavior is that China finally got on board with real sanctions:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...406-story.html

    North Korea doesn't have to deal with the US. If they simply pursue good relations with the two countries they share a border with, and refrain from further weapons testing, the US won't be able to keep sanctions pressure on.

    The US national security establishment are wallowing in self-delusion thinking they can demand swift and permanent de-nuclearization as a precondition to negotiating anything else. After Iraq, Libya, and now Iran, nobody should even consider negotiating with us.

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