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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #2226
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Links to the studies you mentioned would be helpful. My searches only came up with one model that predicts COVID going away by June.

    It is from April 13, 2020, over a month ago, and predicts that deaths by August will be under 70k. That has already been exceeded bigely.

    So if you have better citations than me, please share.

  2. #2227
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    No two viruses are the same and it can be difficult to predict how an infection will behave, but throughout history some of the more infectious outbreaks have come in waves. The Spanish Flu, most notoriously, had a second wave deadlier than the first one (and a third, less deadly one). In more recent history, the Swine Flu also had a second wave, but by that time a vaccine was already available.

    Yes, the media tends to sensationalise and exaggerate things, but this is not something made up by news networks. It's something that is known to happen and we have every reason to prepare for it.

  3. #2228
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    It's pretty easy to see cases getting close to zero by the end of summer if people don't start spreading it again in that timeframe.

  4. #2229
    New Member
    Registered: Oct 2019
    Location: Seattle
    Hey folks!

    First, I use this to check day to day stats. Tip: always look at "yesterday" to get full counts. Lots of useful overall info here (world/country/state).
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Here's the ongoing IHME/Washington University study with projections (one of the most conservative)
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    You can follow all of the studies being done at Five Thirty Eight. Use the link included in each summary.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/

  5. #2230
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Thanks for providing your sources, Perdustin.

    Looks like the IHME model that Trump was using to predict the vanishing COVID summer miracle (previously the Easter miracle) has revised it's predictions upwards a few orders of magnitude. From what I read about it, the optimistic numbers were based on strict adherence to rigid social distancing and other measures, ones which Trump & Co. are opposed to or utterly ignorant of, so cherry picking of the most cynical kind.

  6. #2231
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Perdustin View Post
    Here's the ongoing IHME/Washington University study with projections (one of the most conservative)
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    Do keep in mind that all their models assume all present social distancing measures, that do not already have a known end date, will remain in effect indefinitely (or more specifically - till the end of the modeled time-span).

    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

    We updated our assumptions about social distancing when we updated our model on May 4. Our model now assumes that mandates that are currently still in place and have not been scheduled to be relaxed will stay in place through at least August 4. For locations where social distancing policies have been eased or clear plans have been instituted for their easement, we used those dates for the predictions.

  7. #2232
    The good news is we have a way to track compliance.


  8. #2233
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Nicker View Post
    There are no links in post 2200. I responded to your claims about post 2210, as requested - leave the goalposts alone.

    If we can't trust any of the data then your assertions are as BS as any others.

    Choosing between data provided by medical professionals for various international sources or the swill concocted by Donald "Per capita relative to WHAT?" and Georgia's "we lie you die" charts, I will choose the former.
    my apologies, I got the wrong post .

    here

    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    Sulphur & Judith, Nick?? anyone else NOT in the US. what YOU do in YOUR countries is YOUR problem, I am NOT suggesting things change for YOUR respective countries, if what your countries are doing is working out for YOU? then AWESOME. if not? then that is between you and your the govt of your country, my apologies for not specifying US policy.

    Renz, got limited time, I'll address your post in a bit. CAN you and Suphur jump to the post where I have suggested anything specific? cause I think I am yet to do so.


    https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-1...m3IpHiu1QlNsGY
    WALNUT CREEK, Calif. (KGO) -- Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus.


    The head of the trauma in the department believes mental health is suffering so much, it is time to end the shelter-in-place order.
    Last edited by jkcerda; 22nd May 2020 at 10:46.

  9. #2234
    my apologies, I got the wrong post .
    Incidentally you also got literally everything else you've ever posted here wrong. So I guess you're on a streak here at least.

  10. #2235
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    oh I agree that no matter what I show you know it alls are always right.

  11. #2236
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN

  12. #2237
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    ladies/gentlemen, have a great holiday weekend. downfall of opening up is that traffic sucks again.

  13. #2238
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    You're the Karen of TTLG.

  14. #2239
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Aw, fuck, Jeff. Now he's gonna ask to speak to the manager around here.

    ...and that's me! :O

  15. #2240
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    He wants to speak to the manager?

    I want to speak with the manager!!

  16. #2241
    Capitalism at it's finest, gentlepeople: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...t-living-areas

    How DARE those employees think about keeping their money in their own pocket?


  17. #2242
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    don't like the yob offer? don't take it.

    https://abc7.com/business/san-bernar...2G6R84JiROv4rE
    San Bernardino County latest in SoCal to receive state approval to begin reopening more businesses
    about time.
    Last edited by jkcerda; 24th May 2020 at 19:30.

  18. #2243
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Give me liberty of give me death! Why not have both?

  19. #2244
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    (Meme removed)

    well Nicker NO ONE is being FORCED outside. you CAN stay inside all you want.

  20. #2245
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Since you were last on here arguing the numbers, 3000 people have died of Covid-19.

  21. #2246
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the "cure" is worse than the disease.


    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...hCWlD6uVtufAUo

    A Year’s Worth of Suicide Attempts in the Last Four Weeks’: California Doctor Calls for End to Lockdown

  22. #2247
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's funny watching the "fuck your feelings" crowd suddenly care about other people's feelings.

    Here's the thing, we see an upswing in suicide rates during every economic or national crisis. It's a sad fact of life. People already in difficult situations become suicidal when things get particularly bad, and we see an inevitable upswing. Our current situation is no different in that regard.

    The only thing that's really different is that the pro-Trump bunch are suddenly, conveniently, pretending to care.

  23. #2248
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    curious, how many suicides and homeless do we need before liberals admit they might have fucked up? WHY extend the current cluster fuck by another 2 fucking months? you guys missed a few memes up above since you are removing them.

  24. #2249
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    How is this exclusively the liberals fault? I distinctly recall the historic moment when all 50 states, liberal and conservative all, declared a state of emergency, and agreed to a lock down with support from the federal government. I guess it was good at the time, but with an election season coming up, we need to blame someone for the bad, huh?

    Have 100,000 people killed themselves thus far? Is that what's concerning you? Or is this one of those convenient situations where "even one is one too many?"

  25. #2250
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the liberal clowns are the ones looking to extend things here for 2 more months.

    suicide wise we can only compare the end of this years to last years to gauge how much it went up. those memes are still up, you guys are slacking.

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