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View Poll Results: Should Britain leave the European Union?

Voters
56. You may not vote on this poll
  • YES!...Must Brexit!

    20 35.71%
  • NO!...We Must Remain!

    28 50.00%
  • I have no idea what I want, yet I will vote anyway!

    8 14.29%
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Thread: BREXIT --->

  1. #676
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Yup, that's what they told Scotland as well.

  2. #677
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Landahn
    Y'all party poopers.

  3. #678
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Quote Originally Posted by N'Al View Post
    And even though I (still) live here for the time being, I would take some perverse pleasure if that meant Britain having to pay full rates, i.e. excluding their current discount.
    The commission are planning to scrap all rebates for the next multi-annual funding period, so from that point of view leaving and rejoining is no different to not leaving at all.
    The big differences between the two would be Schengen and the Euro. Given both of those it would be extremely difficult to persuade anything like enough people in the UK to want to join having left.

  4. #679
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    There have been plans to scrap the rebate for a long time now. One of the reasons it has persisted for so long was because the UK had veto power on this issue, so now there's actually a chance of something happening, but if the UK had stayed in the EU, they'd be able to veto it again, though.

  5. #680
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    I saw this chart today of poll results, and there's almost a morbid mathematical beauty to how intractable this thing is.



    Quick napkin math, the support for each one respectively is No deal: 33%, May: 33%, Norway: 48%, Remain: 44%.
    Last edited by demagogue; 1st Feb 2019 at 22:16.

  6. #681
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Looks like Norway's ahead. ...What's that about, anyway?

  7. #682
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: 1, Rotation: 0
    Membership in all but name. You get access to the common market, including the "four freedoms", and must implement every directive that comes from the EU, but you don't get a say in making them. And you get to pay handsomely for the privilege.

    Theoretically, you can reserve the right to opt out of any directive you don't like, but practically, this hardly ever happens. I'm not even sure it's been done at all yet, in Norway's case.

    The main upside to the deal for Norway (as opposed to a full membership) is that they get to keep sovereign control over their fish stocks and the EU's fishing fleet out of their waters. Which has been a good thing for Norway, judging by how fisheries are managed in Norway and the EU.

    Maybe there's an upside to such a deal for Britain, as well, although I don't know what it would be. London getting to keep all those bankers, perhaps?

  8. #683
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    I thought the "upside" was people that want to respect referendum get to pretend that it was and that Brexit happened so life can get back to relatively normal (just take the economic hit & loss of decision-making power & move on in a somewhat worse position than before, but at least the least-worst), and people that really wanted to remain can be relieved they got off with the least damage one could expect short of the horrors of a second referendum and the collapse of civilization as we know it that would entail (and it's not even guaranteed to come back with Remain, I don't think, which would just make things worse). Among the available options, it's the one that has the flavour of "legitimate resolution" to it, arguably.

  9. #684
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    That really seems like "compromise in that nobody gets what they want".

  10. #685
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Been following the reaction to Honda pulling out of Swindon and I can't figure out why some people seem to be so surprised. Of course they are going to leave and of course it was because of Brexit. When they said it wasn't because of Brexit, that was just a very obvious Japanese face-saving gesture. Certainly, there were other reasons too, but Honda hasn't closed a factory in 70 years and you bet that without Brexit they would have done everything to keep it open. The whole reason they were there in the first place was to gain access to the single biggest market in the world and now the UK is no longer going to be part of it, why would they stay?

  11. #686
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Personally I'd have gone with it being because nobody wants to buy a new Honda at the moment in Europe and it's a bit more profitable for them to make them somewhere else. They have other factories that aren't at full capacity and it's all got to be retooled to make whatever they replace that civic with so why *wouldn't* they make the next car where they can make the most money out of it? Especially if it's at home in Japan and even more so if tariffs on imported Japanese cars are being phased out in the EU.

    It's the same reasons they're relocating production of pretty much ALL new models back to Japan, whether the existing one is built in the UK, Turkey, Mexico or Canada.

  12. #687
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Exactly.

    Honda opened that plant to get around tariffs during the trade wars of the 1980s. The need to regionalize auto manufacturing to avoid tariffs declined in the 1990s with the global free trade movement, and Honda never opened another assembly plant in the EU. When the global recession hit, Honda scaled back in Swindon and the plant hasn't come back to full capacity since. Until recently, there was a 10% tariff on cars made in Japan. But a new trade agreement between the EU and Japan just came into effect at the beginning of Feb, and the 10% tariff will be phased out over the next several years. So there will no longer be a 10% incentive for producing cars in Swindon vs. in Japan, Brexit or no Brexit.

    If Honda believed there was a real (not tariff created) advantage to producing EU market cars in the EU, I would expect them to expand production into Eastern Europe where labor costs are cheaper. But they haven't. It costs a lot of money to close plants and transfer production, so it would be unwise to close a plant based on the "uncertainty" surrounding Brexit while the outcome is still in limbo. If possible, you would wait and see what happens before spending money to get out of the UK, or into the UK.

  13. #688
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    I'm still a bit baffled at how low the shipping costs must be to manufacture cars in Japan for sale in Europe.

  14. #689
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    "It's a bit more profitable" is much less of a motivating factor for Japanese businesses than existing relationships and long-term planning. The EU is still the biggest market in the world and making cars is a long cycle business, not to mention that such a move costs a lot of money.

    As I said, there are certainly other reasons behind the move (such as electric cars and global overcapacity and whatnot), but I'd go as far as to say that Brexit is the motivating event for the decision. And why would they wait out the chaos? Chaos and sudden rule changes are devastating for businesses.

    Tariffs are fairly simple, as far as trade barriers go. The real clincher are the regulatory barriers. The one huge advantage that the single market has is that they have worked very hard to eliminate as much of the regulatory barriers as possible. Now that the UK is no longer going to be a part of the single market, that is going to disrupt Honda's manufacturing at the UK to a degree that's pretty much a death blow:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...ncerns-in-2018

    During a meeting on 14 September – five months before the firm said the plant would close from 2021 threatening 7,000 jobs, including 3,500 directly employed at the plant – Honda Motor Europe’s government affairs manager, Patrick Keating, told locals the company was committed to the site.

    But, according to notes taken by local Labour councillor Jane Milner-Barry, he also flagged up a litany of reasons why Brexit, in particular the prospect of a no-deal scenario, posed a threat to the factory.

    Keating predicted that Brexit could interrupt crucial “just in time” delivery of 2m parts a day, 20% of which come from Europe and which allow smooth operation of the company’s supply chain.

    Brexit also raised the prospect of increased customs controls and paperwork, he said, warning that suppliers might have to fill out 60,000 customs declaration forms a year. He also pointed out that 20% of staff at Swindon were EU nationals and expressed concern about regulatory divergence that could force the company to carry out two differing sets of tests on vehicles.

    Keating said Honda’s requirements included tariff-free barriers, access to the EU’s free-trade agreements with other countries, access to talent and the ability to move staff from one country to another, a clear plan on regulations and a predictable Brexit process with a meaningful transition period.

  15. #690
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Well while we're at it...

    A second Brexit referendum is now essential

    Theresa May’s aim is to convert fear of a no-deal Brexit into acceptance of her bad deal, which would leave the UK at the EU’s mercy. In the end, the rhetoric about “taking back control” has come down to a choice between suicide and vassalage. This march of folly needs to be stopped, for the UK’s sake and Europe’s. The only politically acceptable way to do this is via another referendum. That is risky. But it would be better than sure disaster.

    Let us count the ways in which what is now happening is quite insane.

    In just over a month, the UK might suddenly exit from the EU. But the government and business are unprepared for such a departure: to take one example, the government is still fighting over what farm tariffs to impose. Such a no-deal Brexit would damage the UK — and the EU. If a no-deal exit did happen, negotiations would need to restart at once, but in a far more poisonous and, for the UK, more unfavourable context.

    Even if the prime minister’s deal were ratified, a new set of negotiations would have to start over the future relationship. The UK is unprepared for such negotiations. These new negotiations would also inevitably end up with an unsatisfactory outcome, because the UK has never confronted the trade-offs between access and control inherent in all trade negotiations. Finally, this entire mess would make only the EU’s enemies — Russian president Vladimir Putin, above all — happy.

    Britain has, in brief, launched itself on a perilous voyage towards an unknown destination under a captain as obsessed with delivering her version of Brexit as Ahab was with Moby-Dick. Has a mature democracy ever inflicted such needless damage on itself?

  16. #691
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    "It's a bit more profitable" is much less of a motivating factor for Japanese businesses than existing relationships and long-term planning. The EU is still the biggest market in the world and making cars is a long cycle business, not to mention that such a move costs a lot of money.

    As I said, there are certainly other reasons behind the move (such as electric cars and global overcapacity and whatnot), but I'd go as far as to say that Brexit is the motivating event for the decision. And why would they wait out the chaos? Chaos and sudden rule changes are devastating for businesses.

    Tariffs are fairly simple, as far as trade barriers go. The real clincher are the regulatory barriers. The one huge advantage that the single market has is that they have worked very hard to eliminate as much of the regulatory barriers as possible. Now that the UK is no longer going to be a part of the single market, that is going to disrupt Honda's manufacturing at the UK to a degree that's pretty much a death blow:
    If you say so, I'm still unconvinced that a factory that makes cars sold all over the world built to varying regulations who's chief export market is the well known EU member on the other side of the atlantic with the orange shouty president is being closed mainly because the country it happens to be in will have left the EU two years before it shuts.

    There are plenty of real issues caused by brexit in and of itself and the uncertainty caused by the incompetence at all levels of the UK's government without needing to blame it for things that are almost entirely unrelated.

  17. #692
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2000
    Location: Portreath Cornwall UK
    So, does this mean we get the Boris bus out again or a repeat of Geldof vs Farrage on the Thames of will it get even worse?

  18. #693
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Betting on "even worse".

  19. #694
    SShock2.com
    Member

    Registered: Apr 2001
    Location: The land of ever sideways rain
    Speaking as a European, living in Scotland, there is only one outcome that will not stab me in several places and slowly choke me to death. That is to revoke article 50 and remain. To me, personally, it means everything, but to this country, I did not in my wildest nightmares expect your average country retard to vote against their own interest and kill their own employer. "Oh, we hate the brown people." But it's not them that this issue is about, so you're already wrong in two different ways. We NEED immigrants to keep this country running, because apparently Britons are too fat, lazy and stupid to do any actual work.

    I am so angry. Fuming. I never knew Britons were this retarded.

    If you don't watch the news at least twice a week, don't fucking vote. You are uninformed and have not earned the privilege. Keep your racist shit to yourself, and don't ruin it for the rest of us.

  20. #695
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by caffeinatedzombeh View Post
    If you say so, I'm still unconvinced that a factory that makes cars sold all over the world built to varying regulations who's chief export market is the well known EU member on the other side of the atlantic with the orange shouty president is being closed mainly because the country it happens to be in will have left the EU two years before it shuts.

    There are plenty of real issues caused by brexit in and of itself and the uncertainty caused by the incompetence at all levels of the UK's government without needing to blame it for things that are almost entirely unrelated.
    Well, you say it's unrelated, because the plant was already struggling and I say it's because the plant was already struggling that Brexit is the final straw. With the UK being in the EU, they have been able to take advantage of free and frictionless trade and EU's trade agreements and a large pool of skilled workforce (apparently, 20% of the people working at the plant were EU nationals). After Brexit (at least the way it's shaping up), they will have to deal with customs, supply problems, higher costs, tariffs, etc. Even one more set of regulations really does matter, if you've already streamlined your process as far as you possibly can. And even if they currently sell half of their cars to the country with the orange shouty president, they still rely on EU supply chains to a degree.

    I don't think people really appreciate just how much easier the EU's four freedoms, the cornerstone of frictionless trade, make things. It's more than just hassle-free customs, it's also things like being able to have your shipments insured by a EU-wide recognised policy.

    And it's not just Honda that's going to be impacted. BMW, for example, gets 90% of their parts from the EU to make its cars in the UK.
    Last edited by Starker; 1st Mar 2019 at 02:30.

  21. #696
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Honda has also been reducing car production here in the US, and they just announced they are closing another Civic plant in Turkey. So it's not just Swindon. Have you checked sales of cars lately? All of the major auto manufacturers are reducing production of their cars because of oversupply. Only SUVs/CUVs, and trucks are selling well. And nearly all of them are idling or closing plants.

    Honda has seen declining sales in Europe for the last 10 years. They now have less than 1% market share. Europe isn't a priority for them, and they typically launch cars later in Europe than anywhere else. They decided not to even offer their new Accord in Europe. The Swindon plant used to make a European-specific version of the Civic. But the 10th generation Civic is a global platform with a global supply chain. The Swindon plant now makes the hatchback version for the global market. Honda sells about 8x as many Civics in the US as they do in the EU, and about 5x as many Civics in China. So the vast majority of Civics produced in Swindon aren't even destined for the European market.

    Honda says they will move production of Civic hatchbacks for the North American market to the US. Presumably Civic hatchbacks for the Chinese market will be produced in China. Now that there is no longer a tariff for importing Japanese made cars to the EU, Honda will build EU market Civics in Japan.

    None of this has anything to do with Brexit. Brexit hasn't even happened yet. If they really couldn't tolerate uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit, why would they wait it out for 2.5 years and then pre-emptively bail just one month before Brexit is (hopefully) resolved? Especially when it costs a lot of money to close a plant. Especially when production is being moved someplace further removed from the EU than a post-Brexit UK (which looks like it will be in a customs union with the EU and share common regulations).

  22. #697
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Have I checked the sales? Let me just quote myself:

    "As I said, there are certainly other reasons behind the move (such as electric cars and global overcapacity and whatnot)"

    Brexit hasn't happened yet, but Honda hasn't moved yet either. They said they will by 2021. Closing a plant isn't just a matter of packing your bags and you're done, get out tomorrow. And you can't plan for Brexit if you haven't the foggiest idea what the outcome will be and you can't stay in limbo forever. Especially if waiting things out looks increasingly like a death-blow.

    You say that the UK will be in a customs union with the EU and share common regulations, but when will that happen? It might happen sooner if Corbyn gets his way, but will he? And if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, what then? And even a customs union might only play a minor part of resolving border delays or dealing with single market issues or things like the free movement of UK drivers within the EU. It has been proven time and time again over the past three years that UK aligning itself with the EU to the degree of making the single market work for them is going to be extremely unpalatable, if not completely unacceptable, for half of the country (though it would be one of the least bad outcomes, IMO).

    Yes, the plant was struggling, and yes, the global situation was not in its favour, and yes, they had been focusing more on the US and Japanese markets, but they were also planning to start producing new Civic models in Swindon from 2020 before the Brexit vote happened. Honda is stopping their Civic production in Turkey as part of the restructuring, but they do intend to continue their business operations there, from what I've read. Why UK, then, and why now? For years, Honda has sought to keep the Swindon plant going. Until now.

    Not to mention that as recently as this January they were still seeking reassurances that the government would "deliver a clear, legally certain path forward to avoiding no deal".
    Last edited by Starker; 1st Mar 2019 at 20:59.

  23. #698
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    It's easy to blame every misfortunate thing that happens to the UK on Brexit.

    In this case, I'm going with Occam's razor. It takes too much stretching and some suspension of logic to tie this to Brexit when there are more straightforward reasons that explain the closure and the timing of it.

  24. #699
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Exactly. Hence Brexit (especially the increasingly likely no-deal version) must have been the final straw, since they were in no rush to close the plant even during the recession and, in contrary, were seeking ways to keep it open. And they were looking for reassurances from the UK government up until January.

    And the dangers that they have outlined are very real, not imaginary. Japanese auto manufacturers are famous for their extremely lean production, optimised to the point that they only keep parts on hand for only a few hours of production. Any delays at the border are going to be catastrophic. Plus there's the prospect of tariffs where there previously were none (automatic 10% in case of no deal), a massive increase in paperwork, more regulations, a serious impact to the UK and EU economy, and potentially a whole host of other problems nobody can really even predict yet. And all of this is exacerbating the already dire global situation.

  25. #700
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    What with May's deal having been voted down for the second time and the UK parliament narrowly voting against a no-deal Brexit and all, you really can't say that the MPs don't represent the people anymore. If anything, they are just as split as the British people are.

    Anyway, while I was looking around for Brexit news I happened upon a video where someone takes apart Nigel Farage's arguments why the UK left the EU (which hasn't actually happened yet), most notably the idea of the UK regaining its sovereignty.


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