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View Poll Results: Should Britain leave the European Union?

Voters
59. You may not vote on this poll
  • YES!...Must Brexit!

    20 33.90%
  • NO!...We Must Remain!

    31 52.54%
  • I have no idea what I want, yet I will vote anyway!

    8 13.56%
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Results 501 to 525 of 955

Thread: BREXIT --->

  1. #501
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    In a stunning coincidence, the article I'm working on right now is how EU trade rules, well more the ECJ that interprets them, negotiate cultural pluralism. Actually I wrote it ages ago, but for some reason I thought it'd be a good idea to update it & publish as an article now.

    Edit: @Kolya, Germans aren't immune! One of the famous cases was Bavaria's cunning plan to ban beer with additives from using the name "beer", well "bier", the so-called beer purity laws. Their literal defense in court was, well Germans drink so much more beer than the rest of Europe so, you know, health. They lost but hard not to respect their attempt.
    Last edited by demagogue; 31st Mar 2017 at 04:08.

  2. #502
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: I think I've been here
    I remember that of course. The defense was specifically that German stomachs were used to pure beer and anything else would be a health hazard. Hilarity ensued.
    Of course I only drink beer without additives. But that was just a transparent attempt to protect German brewers. It wasn't that Verheugen didn't know better.

  3. #503
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Kolya, that may be the third greatest gif I've ever seen.

  4. #504
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Agree.

    I don't know what it is but everything seems wrong at the moment. I voted 'Remain' or whatever the choice was in 1975. And I haven't had reason to change my mind since. I'd love to move to Europe before it's too late but suspect I'd be going alone. I wouldn't blame them but I'm afraid there'll be another Scotland Independence vote which will say yes this time and I'll be stuck with Wales and England. The US is all over the place and I'm alternately shocked and appalled at the sleaze/apparent dodginess of the current Administration. I feel our better bet would have beeen staying with Europe. And that's gone.

    I'm afraid of the rise in right-wing thought and activity. And I feel it will get worse. It all feels sodding awful.

  5. #505
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    We're definitely going through another "looks like we have to learn our lessons the hard way" kick at the moment. It's merely time for a new generation to learn that stark isolationist/protectionist policies are destined to fail, as they have the previous umpteen hundred times they've been attempted.

    It's a cyclical thing. A reactionary kneejerk that inevitably arises when the world seems a little more scary than usual. We'll weather it, same as always, and eventually swing back towards more centrist positions.

  6. #506
    Member
    Registered: Jan 2005
    So any update on that apocalypse then? I don't quite follow the news and would like to make some preparations before it happens. First it was supposed to happen right after the vote, then right after the negotiations, then after they activated article 50, and now employment is at an all-time high? I don't understand, shouldn't there be rampaging in the streets, stores being pillaged, war, death, and famine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    We're definitely going through another "looks like we have to learn our lessons the hard way" kick at the moment.
    I'm pretty sure Greece has learned its lesson the hard way.

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    It's merely time for a new generation to learn that stark isolationist/protectionist policies are destined to fail
    Ah yes, I wonder how the countries outside of the EU (i.e. every other country in the world) have managed to survive that long with their stark isolationist, protectionist, and let's be honest, fascist policies. It's a miracle when you think about it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    as they have the previous umpteen hundred times they've been attempted.
    You mean like that one time when the Soviet Union never fell apart and survived to this day. And how when it didn't fall apart the world totally descended into utter chaos? Or that one time when Switzerland and Norway refused to join the EU and vanished from the face of the earth?

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    It's a cyclical thing. A reactionary kneejerk that inevitably arises when the world seems a little more scary than usual. We'll weather it, same as always
    Actually the world looks very inviting and welcoming and we would like to join it. To the world, the US and the EU are the scary ones. You know the ones dropping bombs and killing innocent civilians.

    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    I'm afraid of the rise in right-wing thought and activity. And I feel it will get worse. It all feels sodding awful.
    So you're afraid of thinking? How very telling... But you should rejoice actually, right-wing "thought and activity" is on its deathbed. The media has zero credibility left, the EU is about to fall apart and the contradictions inherent to the facist antifa movements and the right-wing liberals defending them (the kind we have on this forum) have been laid bare for all to see. Although they are at their most violent, vicious and disingenuous when cornered, as we've seen recently in the US (and on this forum).

    Meanwhile, France is about to elect Mélenchon as its next president. A known "Euroskeptic" and evil "right-wing" leftist. And with Asselineau's UPR gaining 1k members a week, six months down the line, when Mélenchon fails to apply his program and reneges on everything he stands for (which isn't much beyond "vote for me"), they'll have reached such critical mass that the media and politicians won't be able to ignore them any more.

    Fun times ahead.

  7. #507
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    I wouldn't blame them but I'm afraid there'll be another Scotland Independence vote which will say yes this time and I'll be stuck with Wales and England.
    What makes you think they would vote Yes now?

  8. #508
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2001
    Location: Chicago, IL
    I'm afraid of the rise in right-wing thought and activity. And I feel it will get worse.

  9. #509
    Member
    Registered: May 2003
    Location: Minecraft
    Quote Originally Posted by Manwe View Post
    So you're afraid of thinking? How very telling...
    Well he's got nothing to fear from you then, has he?

  10. #510
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by caffeinatedzombeh View Post
    What makes you think they would vote Yes now?
    I haven't been following this particularly but 62% voted to Remain which I'm guessing they can only do if they become independent. But maybe they would be content with retaining some kind of EU relationship.

  11. #511
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Quote Originally Posted by caffeinatedzombeh View Post
    What makes you think they would vote Yes now?
    The Leave UK vote was bigger than the Remain in EU vote by 7%, which works out to 250,000 people, and they only need 4-5% over the last Scottish independence referendum.

    They aren't necessarily the same people of course, some people in that 7% differential are getting double-counted, so it may be less than 250K. But I suspect there's a quite high correlation between Leave UK and Stay in EU, so not too much eaten away from that 7%.

    We also need a poll to know the distribution of priority between those two, but without further info I'd assume a normal distribution proportionally weighted to the stay in the EU camp the same as the differential between the two votes. Then it's simple maths. Actually by that napkin maths it'd be right on the line.

    But I actually think that assumption (proportionally weighting a normal curve) is too conservative and there'd be more people preferring to stay in the EU over the UK than proportional to the EU Stay vote, closer to the absolute number itself (the full 7% minus whatever we subtracted from above), which only inches farther over the line the more it holds.

    Actually I have no idea. I just like poli-sci stats.
    Last edited by demagogue; 2nd Apr 2017 at 17:53.

  12. #512
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    An independent Scotland would have to join the EU the same way anyone else would.

    They'd have a significant advantage over many other accession states in terms of regulatory compatibility and that sort of thing but the economic requirements of joining the euro would be somewhat on the scary side. (we're talking cuts to public spending somewhere in the region of the entire budget of NHS Scotland)

  13. #513
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    This also goes for other stuff like NATO. Scotland would be a new state, basically. Though I'm sure they would be fast-tracked through a lot of it.

  14. #514
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    The leave UK vote was bigger than the leave EU vote by 7%, which works out to 250,000 people, and they only need 4-5% over the last Scottish independence referendum.
    I haven't a clue what you're saying here.

    The vote against independence (leaving the UK) was 55.3%. The vote against leaving the EU was 62%. I'm pretty sure I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.

    But I have now done a bit of reading about my throwaway comment and 'experts' do talk a lot about the finances and how it would be crap for at least a very long while, if viable at all as Zombeh notes. I've also read, here and there, that Sturgeon is probably wrong if she thinks that the pro-EU vote would translate to a pro-independence vote. I don't know either way but if it was me, I wouldn't want to vote on anything until I knew what France and, later this year, Germany were doing.

    Such a long time since May '68. Never in a million years would I have thought that France would move so far to the right to even consider Marine Le Pen to be remotely acceptable. To everyone, I'm not trying to be factual or analytical, I just find myself responding emotionally to current events. I remember a kinder time, that's all.

    RIP Darcus Howe.

  15. #515
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Sorry yes, I meant the 62% voting Remain (EU). I got my wires crossed and mistyped it. (In my defense it's easy to do that!) 62-55=7ish (6.7% rounding up.) Add some percent of those people to the 45% voting in favor of Scottish Independence, and that's where the extra support comes from to cross the line, which is what the rest of the post is trying to figure out. Ie, that 6.7% is 250K people (not exactly but close), and the Scottish Ind. vote needs 180K people to flip to change the outcome.

    Edit. Then all the caveats come in, eg, translating that 7% into 250K people implies they are actual people that actually voted Remain-UK that could flip in a 2nd vote, but that's not necessarily true. The two referenda could have come from rather different pools of people in Scotland so it's not a real set of individuals. But I argued the number may represent a trend that holds for any arbitrary pool of people you select so it's still relevant to a second Scot-Ind. vote.

    And we need to know of the potential flippers that follow that trend (ie, want both Remain UK & EU), which they prioritize between Remain-UK and Remain-EU, where I argued you can guesstimate 70% or so would prioritize Remain-EU just based on how priority curves normally look like (because its vote was bigger, indicating a stronger opinion), which is really close to the line. (Ideally we'd want polling to be accurate on these numbers, and it probably exists but I'm going with the vote numbers here just 'cause.)

    But then I said this is all just maths, so I don't really know anything. Just an interesting exercise.
    Last edited by demagogue; 2nd Apr 2017 at 18:40.

  16. #516
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    Such a long time since May '68. Never in a million years would I have thought that France would move so far to the right to even consider Marine Le Pen to be remotely acceptable. To everyone, I'm not trying to be factual or analytical, I just find myself responding emotionally to current events. I remember a kinder time, that's all.
    Yeah, it has been pretty odd to see people with giddy nihilism try to tear apart what little European unity has been achieved. You'd think people would have learned at least something from history by now.

  17. #517
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Thanks, dema, I can never be entirely sure that I'm understanding what I'm reading.

    I suspect the presence of rose-coloured glasses, Starker, although Polly Toynbee says a lot of it for me. So much we take for granted now.

    Younger people could be wishing we of the Who generation really had all died before we got old. What’s become of us? We who won all those freedoms on sex, contraception, abortion, gay rights, divorce, who saw the start of women’s lib, an end to censorship, capital and corporal punishment, who threw off hats, gloves and conventions to wear and think what we liked? But no doubt many of my generation never bought into what seemed like the spirit of the age: abolishing capital punishment was never popular.
    I was a bit shocked to read:

    Brexiters are 53% for bringing back the rope (supported by just 20% of remainers). Bring back beating in schools, say 42% of Brexiters (against just 14% of remainers). Three times more Brexiters than remainers would bring back incandescent lightbulbs, blue passports, imperial weights and measures and pre-decimal currency – which would fox anyone under 55.

  18. #518
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Pre-decimal currency? Are you talking about a throwback to the shillings and pence days, where everything was divvied up by fractions of a pound?

  19. #519
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    A farthing for your thoughts.

  20. #520
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    I was a bit shocked to read:
    That yougov polls are as informative and useful as ever?

  21. #521
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    A farthing for your thoughts.
    Sorry, my thoughts are worth a quid a piece.

  22. #522
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by caffeinatedzombeh View Post
    That yougov polls are as informative and useful as ever?
    Well, yes, there is that.

  23. #523
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    We're definitely going through another "looks like we have to learn our lessons the hard way" kick at the moment. It's merely time for a new generation to learn that stark isolationist/protectionist policies are destined to fail, as they have the previous umpteen hundred times they've been attempted.

    It's a cyclical thing. A reactionary kneejerk that inevitably arises when the world seems a little more scary than usual. We'll weather it, same as always, and eventually swing back towards more centrist positions.
    Which is ironic because you're posting this as the globalist, corporatist Utopia that George Bush Sr. promised us with his "New World Order" speech is collapsing all around you.

  24. #524
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Nothing is collapsing ffs. GM and GE and Nabisco and Harley Davidson, et al, are all making the global new world order tick whether governments want it or not.

    The only question is if gov'ts are going to jump in front of the curve and take a lead in advancing globalization in positive ways or if they close their eyes to reality and are completely reactive to events beyond their foresight.

    I take it as a given that the former is better off for all involved. But the latter isn't the end of civilization, just a really dumb and avoidable loss.

  25. #525
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Don't you worry, Lord Dampnut will put the globalism genie back in the bottle. And he has a great plan to do it in 30 days or your money back. Act now and get the economy plan Autarky completely free of charge!

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