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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

Voters
144. You may not vote on this poll
  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    26 18.06%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    51 35.42%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    50 34.72%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    4 2.78%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    13 9.03%

Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

  1. #2651
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    I created that thread as a reference for development, and simply extrapolated the gap in UA's production schedule in which they provided. At no time did I claim or predict that they would meet this schedule. Again, I never made such a claim...You only imagined that I did, and proceeded with a tangential argument. We ended up arguing about the merits of Agile and its impact on time management. That is all.

    Again, you present another distortion. I said it was a "near certainty" that she has a neurological disorder, and that she might drop out of the race because of it.

    I made no prediction that she would, without question, drop out of the race...That was just a "maybe".

    Even so, no one is perfect...even me......I'm sure that after all these years of countless arguments there has to be at least a few that I lost.

  2. #2652
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Trance View Post
    He didn't say he was correct all the time. He implied that he wins arguments all the time. There's a crucial distinction there, which he's not really grasped.
    Your assumption that I don't grasp the difference between the terms "win" and "correct", is false...In both examples that Starker provided I was neither incorrect, nor did I lose the argument.

    Hey, this is starting to get fun!...

  3. #2653
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Uh-uh.. statements like these don't really sound a lot like "maybe" to me:

    The "allergy" and "pneumonia" excuses are propaganda from the Clinton campaign. Eventually, everyone will understand that this is true.

    The only question is, whether or not Hillary will have to exit the race, due to serious health issues.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    Your assumption that I don't grasp the difference between the terms "win" and "correct", is false...In both examples that Starker provided I was neither incorrect, nor did I lose the argument.
    <a href="http://www.azquotes.com/quote/1227687" title="Johann Wolfgang von Goethe quote"><img src="http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-many-hammer-all-over-the-wall-and-believe-that-with-each-blow-they-hit-the-nail-on-the-johann-wolfgang-von-goethe-122-76-87.jpg" alt="Many hammer all over the wall and believe that with each blow they hit the nail on the head. - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe"></a>
    Last edited by Starker; 1st Feb 2017 at 23:36.

  4. #2654
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    That part of my comment I already clarified as a "near certainty"...which is more than a "maybe" (like her exiting the race), but still not an absolute certainty...and for further clarification, when I said "eventually", that was intended to mean years down the road. I thought about it that way because once someone is out of the limelight, managed neurological disorders are easily hidden and take years of degeneration to get to a point where they can't be hidden anymore...So I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

    Edit: As a response to your edit, the statement I made remains true:
    Your assumption that I don't grasp the difference between the terms "win" and "correct", is false...In both examples that Starker provided I was neither incorrect, nor did I lose the argument.
    Just to let you know, Starker, I'm okay with you digging around and attempting to find a flaw in my arguments...because if they're there, I want to know about it so I can weed out any errors in my own thinking...It's more important to understand and discover what is really true than to be "right" about something simply for the sake of ego.
    Last edited by Vae; 1st Feb 2017 at 23:49.

  5. #2655
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2000
    Location: Near Brisbane, Australia
    I like your style, Vae: heads, you win, tails ... well, that's complicated!

  6. #2656
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Digging around? Those two examples were just things I remembered off the top of my head and were just an easy forum search away. Like I could be bothered with digging around.

  7. #2657
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Chade View Post
    I like your style, Vae: heads, you win, tails ... well, that's complicated!
    Thanks, I like you too, Chade...You should hang around more often.

    Sometimes life is complicated, and occasionally using timelines and probabilities are a better way of expressing the outcome of something rather than relying on absolutes.

  8. #2658
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    And, for the record, you soundly lost both of these arguments. You said there is a likely chance that Otherside will complete the game faster than they scheduled because they use agile methods. And I argued, and presented evidence for it, that the methods used don't really matter for a team like this, because other factors are much more important.

    The other time you made a bunch of wild claims that were likely based on a conspiracy theory. And presenting them as "near certainty" as opposed to a "complete certainty" is not as much in your favour as you believe it to be.

  9. #2659
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Digging around? Those two examples were just things I remembered off the top of my head and were just an easy forum search away. Like I could be bothered with digging around.
    I'm not saying you have to dig around. I'm just saying that if you come across something that you think I've said in error, I'd like to know about it so I can learn from it.

  10. #2660
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    You said there is a likely chance that Otherside will complete the game faster than they scheduled because they use agile methods.
    I can't find that quote. Could you show me where I said that?

    And I argued, and presented evidence for it, that the methods used don't really matter for a team like this, because other factors are much more important.
    I was just talking about the merits of Agile being applied to production in a general sense, and never included a prediction about UA meeting its production schedule.

    When I make a prediction, it is clearly defined...like the one I made back in 2015.

    Manwe: "Do you guys already know who your next president is going to be? Is it something you can reasonably predict?"

    Vae: "Yes...It will be Trump."

    The other time you made a bunch of wild claims that were likely based on a conspiracy theory. And presenting them as "near certainty" as opposed to a "complete certainty" is not as much in your favour as you believe it to be.
    Like I told you before, we might not know the answer to this for years to come. I already qualified my statement when I said "eventually". I said that at the time for a reason, because if it's there it won't be made public until years down the road. Since the answer is still unknown, and I qualified my statement so as to provide a number of years for a probable outcome, it would be premature to draw any conclusions at this time.

    So this argument will remain suspended for the time being, having the potential of being proven correct or incorrect in the future.
    Last edited by Vae; 2nd Feb 2017 at 02:06.

  11. #2661
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: I think I've been here
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    Hey, this is starting to get fun!...
    I'm sure you enjoy the attention. Two threads for two schwanzköpfe who wouldn't dream of stopping and thinking now that they have the podium to spread their crude egoistic lies. Even if no one agrees it feels like winning compared to their actual meaninglessness.

  12. #2662
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Kolya View Post
    I'm sure you enjoy the attention. Two threads for two schwanzköpfe who wouldn't dream of stopping and thinking now that they have the podium to spread their crude egoistic lies. Even if no one agrees it feels like winning compared to their actual meaninglessness.
    I'm not spreading any lies...In fact, you're the one lying right now. I offer you the opportunity to prove your frivolous and malicious claim, for all to see.

    If you cannot, well then sir, you are indeed the liar.

  13. #2663
    Member
    Registered: Jun 1999
    Location: Procrastination, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by nbohr1more View Post
    All over the news? Compare the "attention" paid now to back then. Small articles quickly passed out and not headliners. Show me a where there was a week-long media blitz
    about Obama's drone activity? What SNL skit was written about it? What Colbert monologue? There is a difference here and everyone knows it. A large organized media conspiracy.

    and whoops, the whole point of this tangent is blown out as "fake news":
    Well there was this kind of thing.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...onomy-20120601
    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertai...drones/358305/

    among others.

    It did not go unnoticed by 'the left'.

    So much gets conflated in this stupid attitude about media bias. And calling it left wing is simplistic at best, ignorant at least and outright partisan at worst.
    The big news outlets are as craven and populist as they have been for a long time when it comes to pandering to the worse aspects of popular media consumption and political power. Just because there was an American-style-left-so-not-really-left-at-all president in the house doesn't make the whole thing a left wing trend or conspiracy. They did it under Bush and I wager most will do it under Trump as well (if he doesn't flame out first, or the flamage is so regular that flame fatigue sets in).
    If there is media bias it's a bias towards indolence and deference to power of all kinds.
    The "Leftwing Mainstream media conspiracy" is tedious right wing demagoguery that only worked because of who was in the house at the time.
    Was there relentless hammering of the gradual Republican dominance of the states, the various egregious gerrymandering and redistributing that basically cuts the Democrats out of the game entirely?
    No. And it was for the exact same reason. Craven deference and indifference. They know the public is more interested in the federal government and the celebrity of the office of the president. They're not going to bother getting down and dirty into the details of politics for the good of civic participation. That'd be silly.

    Someone might be able to point to some Hillary tilt in the election coverage. So what? That only really matters if the mainstream outlets in question were ever going to delve in to things in any great detail once the dust settled. Which they were not, for the reasons stated above. This is not left wing bias, this is American Business-ness bias.
    Any wannabe analysis/conspiracy theory or psychologising that does not include this is worthless.

  14. #2664
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    I can't find that quote. Could you show me where I said that?
    You posted that ridiculous "extrapolation", presenting it as the schedule for the project and claimed that they will be able to finish at least two of the builds on time or even earlier because they use "agile principals".

  15. #2665
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Ignore the Creationists part (couldn't find an unedited version on YouTube), but this is Vae and GMD personified:


  16. #2666
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    You posted that ridiculous "extrapolation", presenting it as the schedule for the project and claimed that they will be able to finish at least two of the builds on time or even earlier because they use "agile principals".
    Okay, I see where the miscommunication is now. When I said "one can extrapolate the full production schedule utilizing the quarterly time-boxes that have already been provided", all I was saying was "I can extrapolate the gap and fill out the two quarters (in orange) in the production schedule, from the three data points they publicly provided...That's all I meant:

    - Prototype build sometime during Q4 2015.

    - Pre-Alpha build sometime during Q1 2016.

    - Alpha build sometime during Q2 2016.

    - Beta build sometime during Q3 2016.

    - Final build sometime during Q4 2016.

    I can see how you got confused, and then were under the assumption that the whole Agile discussion was linked to a prediction. No wonder why you were riding me so hard!...I just thought we were arguing about the efficiency of Agile in an isolated context of "how much difference does it make to production".

    Try reading the thread again with that in mind...

  17. #2667
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Not only is Trump killing it, he's apparently also making a killing while he's at it:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...irms/97357954/

  18. #2668
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    These were never data points, they were guesstimates at best, thrown out before pre-production (and therefore before the scope of the game was established). This goes especially for the "final build date" (that was probably only there because Kickstarter requires something to be put there). And multiple people told you in the thread how unrealistic such a schedule would be. As for how much difference Agile makes, as the study I quoted in the thread shows, not really a lot.

  19. #2669
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    You're missing the point. I never argued that they would make that schedule. I never disagreed with anyone about that. All I was doing was presenting a rough outline of a schedule from the information that was given for general reference...and then we bantered for a while about Agile, which didn't amount to much.

    This is one of those cases where there was an honest fundamental miscommunication, which basically skewed any constructive discussion.

  20. #2670
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Draining that swamp right into his offshore accounts.

  21. #2671
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Obviously his principal motivation to run was for personal profit. Businessmen can't clear what heads of state can, or if he lost he'd have channelled it into another venture. Hard to figure any other motivation since he clearly doesn't have any taste or attention for politics. The self-aggrandizement and ego stoking is a nice bonus.

    But I guess conservatives can still be happy he speaks his mind? I don't know any other 70 year old grumpy white guy that does that.

  22. #2672
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    The list of excuses for why he is still awesome gets more and more desperate with each iteration.
    I'm going to really enjoy coming back to some of these posts when he well and truly jumps the shark.

  23. #2673
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Oh I remember what else I was going to say.

    When Brexit happened, it crossed my mind that only Trump gave the US the potential to compete with that level of collosal fuckupitude. But then I consoled myself that at least Trump would be temporary whereas Brexit would be forever, in political time scale anyway. So I thought the UK still had the worse deal.

    I no longer think that because it's becoming clear Trump can do a lot more damage than Brexit because he's corroding our whole system from within, in ways not even Brexit can touch. He's a cancer, and when he leaves he may leave so much damage, and remove any faith in institutions, a whole generation could be thrown off track. Just the fact he's normalizing open troll politics is dragging our whole political discourse into the toilet.

    Anyone read his Black History Month speech from yesterday? He's relentless. Not a day can go by he's not a national shame.
    Last edited by demagogue; 2nd Feb 2017 at 08:49.

  24. #2674
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    Quote Originally Posted by faetal View Post
    The list of excuses for why he is still awesome gets more and more desperate with each iteration.
    Agreed, faetal. Although lately the only type of 'excuses' for Trump I've been reading in the comments sections of news articles about the orange buffoon seem to mostly run along the lines of 'WE WON, SNOWFLAKE, SWALLOW IT', 'FAKE NEWS BY A LIBERAL CONSPIRACY', and 'MAKE 'MURIKA GREAT AGAIN DEPORT ALL LIBERALS'. It's almost like one Trump supporter created those responses and the others copy and paste them over and over and over rather than debate the issues regarding Trump in an intelligent manner. You wouldn't believe the Trumpsters' moronic responses to an article claiming that Herr Drumpf wants to invade Mexico (because according to Mr. Bigly there are some 'bad hombres' living there). Some of them actually posted 'REMEMBER THE ALAMO!!!'. When I read that comment for the first time all I could think was 'I don't even ............'. Also, I could do without the death threats to anyone not supporting Herr Drumpf (the large number of those threats is astounding, btw). That's just insane.


  25. #2675
    Member
    Registered: Jul 2010
    Death threats?

    I doubt those are real Trump supporters. You are probably seeing David Brock's "ShareBlue" organization trying to smear all Trump supporters by association
    the same way his group coordinated with Hillary to incite violence at Trump rallies during the election. Get me a list of accounts and if possible IP addresses and
    I can have some folks follow the breadcrumbs to whoever is posting that garbage.

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