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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

Voters
142. You may not vote on this poll
  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    26 18.31%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    49 34.51%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    50 35.21%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    4 2.82%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    13 9.15%
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Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

  1. #1176
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2000
    Location: Portreath Cornwall UK
    That was an interesting speech, no waffle, no spin just the facts of what he intends to do in his first 100 days. Very clever turn of tactics but, do those plans make any sense to the present state of the US economy? I'm not qualified to pass opinion on those plans (being a UK resident) so will be interested to hear the views of those who are.

  2. #1177
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2003
    Location: The Plateaux Of Mirror
    Trump bitching about the media is hilarious when they're the sole reason he's even seen as a viable candidate by some (i.e. idiots).

  3. #1178
    Just FYI the email "proving" rigged polling doesn't. Via an MRA (and rabidly pro-Trump forum)

    Just for the record, this is a total misunderstanding of the email and of what is going on there.

    In polling an "oversample" is a term of art which means that you sample more voters from a smaller but potentially important population to get a better estimate of how that population will vote, or to get a better estimate of the crosstabs within that population. The final results of the poll (the topline) are still reweighted by the estimated fraction of the population in the overall electorate, so the topline will not represent an "oversample" in the sense that you might think.

    For example, in a typical poll of 500 voters, black voters will be only 10%-15%, so only about 50-75 voters. That will result in a noisy estimate of the black vote (since the margin of error on 50-75 voters is very high), and will make the estimation of crosstabs among black voters impossible (if you want to further break them down by sex, educational attainment, etc). If the client -- in this case Podesta -- wants to get a more accurate sense of this population -- because it's particularly important for him to understand it, -- he will ask the pollster for an "oversample", so eg to sample 200 black voters or what have you. This will allow him to understand the voting patterns of this slice of the electorate, so that they can be targeted appropriately in terms of ads, campaigns, turnout efforts etc. For the topline, the results will still be weighted by the estimated proportion of this population in the overall electorate.

    In short, what is being described in the email is standard procedure, completely benign, and has nothing whatsoever to do with the idea that pollsters intentionally misrepresent the electorate by overweighting (not oversampling, overweighting, that is a key distinction) certain groups. I'm not making any claims here about whether pollsters do that or not, but the Podesta email cited above provides zero evidence of that.
    The only part that's shady is where he says "so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling".

    Also worth noting: those supposed intolerant right wingers are far more objective and open minded than the enlightened here.
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 24th Oct 2016 at 09:59.

  4. #1179
    Member
    Registered: Oct 2002
    Location: London / London / London
    Why are you here, then?

  5. #1180
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    I have dug through your post history more than a few times, and I wonder that same thing about you...

  6. #1181
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Why do all of your posts come across like they were written on a lute?

  7. #1182
    Member
    Registered: Oct 2002
    Location: London / London / London
    Goldmoon, I can't even tell if you're trying to manufacture antagonism between us or if you're just being your usual slightly incomprehensible self. Is there a problem I should know about?

  8. #1183
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    An example of an MRA who actually understands how polling works and therefore doesn't run along with some of the conspiracy theories doesn't really even begin putting the slightest dent in "we should disenfranchise women" as far as tolerance and open-mindedness are concerned.

  9. #1184
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    ...QUACK!...



    ...Rigging the Election – Video III: Creamer Confirms Hillary Clinton Was PERSONALLY Involved...

    OH NO!...SAY IT AIN'T SO!


  10. #1185
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    Quote Originally Posted by Vivian View Post
    Goldmoon, I can't even tell if you're trying to manufacture antagonism between us or if you're just being your usual slightly incomprehensible self. Is there a problem I should know about?
    From not much earlier ITT.

    How am I supposed to take you seriously? You are one of the people here, who never contributes paragraphs of on-topic material, rather you take pot shots at the other people here, who dont contribute/post a lot...

    Anyways, until thy next pot shot... peace!

  11. #1186
    Member
    Registered: Oct 2002
    Location: London / London / London
    Oh I'm sorry, Proust. Anyway, that wasn't a pot shot at Tony, I just wanted to know why he bothers talking to us if we're such a bunch of raving lefty loonies who can't understand our own biases or whatever he's talking about. And I asked if you were ok because you didn't seem to be ok. Is that that weird?
    Last edited by Vivian; 24th Oct 2016 at 15:25.

  12. #1187
    The world doesn't have much use for conspiracy theorists these days. The "conspiracy theories" are being proven true faster than the theorists can invent them.

    Why do all of your posts come across like they were written on a lute?
    Because I've been lying about my identity this whole time. I'm a fucking Satyr in real life and I have a picture to prove it.




    Yeah, there are tons of well-documented problems with the voter registration system. There is no evidence whatsoever that any of the fraudulent registrations are actually being used to cast votes.
    Tell that to the Air Force buddy I was discussing this with the other day. His dad lives in Florida, and has openly bragged to him about how he is "beating the system" every year by hopping on a bus where they take him from poll to poll and tell him what his name is at each location.

    Or go to a polling station in Virginia/Colorado and count the vans with out of state license plates.
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 24th Oct 2016 at 16:17.

  13. #1188
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    The world doesn't have much use for conspiracy theorists these days. The "conspiracy theories" are being proven true faster than the theorists can invent them.
    So we've got an organization known for doctoring videos and presenting half-truths being paid by a campaign to rile up their opponents, yet somehow no one's screaming about gross conflicts of interest.


    Because I've been lying about my identity this whole time. I'm a fucking Satyr in real life and I have a picture to prove it.
    Liar. That's a statue. I can tell, because I'm good at these things.

  14. #1189
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Vertigo, DragonSand, Xeen
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Liar. That's a statue.
    Wait!!! No its .... oh shi


  15. #1190
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    So we've got an organization known for doctoring videos and presenting half-truths being paid by a campaign to rile up their opponents, yet somehow no one's screaming about gross conflicts of interest.
    I was actually referring to things like Wikileaks and Snowden more so than O'keefe, and besides which that's still better than paying people to incite violence at rallies.

  16. #1191
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Maybe, maybe not.

    That's the problem with lying, Tony. If you're caught doing it enough time, people have trouble believing you later.

  17. #1192
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2010
    Location: A Former Forest
    This is not a simple "nothing to see here... the videos are faked..." situation. 2 people involved and implicated in these leaks have been fired directly due to these reports. Why fire them if "Project Veritas" is so full of shit? More firings may be coming soon. Hillary has a direct connection, actually ordering the ducks on the ground. There is a direct coordination between these groups in violation of Federal statutes. However, can it be shown that she directed these duck costumed people to violence? My opinion is she loved the humorous aspect of the "ducking", but did not explicitly say to entice violence. No, that was left up to others to implement on their own accord. An old tactic.

    Still, there is enough evidence here that she and the DNC broke Federal campaign laws. Will the corrupt Obama administration prosecute? No. She has too much dirt on him. Obama is also implicitly guilty in the email scandal, since he was fully aware of the situation and went as far as using a false address and name to hide his communications with her on her unsecured and illegal server.

    This is sickening shit. It makes Nixon look like a simple pick pocket. I am not a big fan of Trump and wish he were not the Republican candidate, but Hillary is complete unsuitable in almost every respect. These latest reports are the tip of the iceberg. More will be released this week.

  18. #1193
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    ACORN was shut down shortly after Project Veritas did an expose on them. As was the CEO of NPR. It's all a move to save face during the ensuing storm, nevermind the fact that both were exonerated after the fact. Hell, on top of that, O'Keefe has been caught faking websites to stoke angst and fervor among certain crowds.

    See, here's the thing. Hillary Clinton is pretty sleazy, and it's very easy to nail her to the wall for many, many things she's been accused of through trusted, verifiable sources. This doesn't mean we should all take that extra step to exult a known muckraker and liar for yet more bullshit simply because it makes her look even worse at a casual glance.

    Hillary is bad enough without having to resort to making her out to look like she's the devil incarnate through tabloid journalism and outright fabrications.

  19. #1194
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2002
    Location: Pacific Northwest
    This thread has convinced me we'd have an easier time getting Trump into office if we just made sure women stayed home on November 8. And minorities. And people with college degrees. Non-idiots. Dead people. Synthetics. Dogs. Ted Cruz. And other things that shouldn't be allowed to vote.

  20. #1195
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Because I've been lying about my identity this whole time. I'm a fucking Satyr in real life and I have a picture to prove it.

    I was talking about GMD.

  21. #1196
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2001
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    ACORN was shut down shortly after Project Veritas did an expose on them. As was the CEO of NPR. It's all a move to save face during the ensuing storm, nevermind the fact that both were exonerated after the fact. Hell, on top of that, O'Keefe has been caught faking websites to stoke angst and fervor among certain crowds.

    See, here's the thing. Hillary Clinton is pretty sleazy, and it's very easy to nail her to the wall for many, many things she's been accused of through trusted, verifiable sources. This doesn't mean we should all take that extra step to exult a known muckraker and liar for yet more bullshit simply because it makes her look even worse at a casual glance.

    Hillary is bad enough without having to resort to making her out to look like she's the devil incarnate through tabloid journalism and outright fabrications.
    This is the first O'Keefe video I watched, but it's hard to see how some of what was said could have been edited or taken out of context. And it certainly isn't outright fabrication, even if it is edited.

    Hillary lied to federal investigators about her email server and classified information. She said she thought the (C) on documents was part of an alphabetical organization. This is after 8 years on the armed services committee in the Senate, and a stint as Secretary of State; in both these positions she would have been a weekly or daily consumer of classified information. She also denied to federal investigators recalling ever receiving a briefing about the handling of classified information (despite detailing in her biography about the efforts she and her staff took to protect classified information); but she signed a Classified Information Nondisclosure Agreement in January of '09. She lied. General James Cartwright, retired four star general who served 40 years in the Armed Forces and was on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was just convicted of the crime of lying to federal prosecutors during a leak investigation. He is facing jail time. He will never be allowed to own a firearm again. He is a felon for the exact same crime that she is guilty of but will never be prosecuted for.

    She holds the patent on sleaze. She's rotten to the core, and isn't fit for office. Neither is Donald. There are no good choices this election.

  22. #1197
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Draxil View Post
    And it certainly isn't outright fabrication, even if it is edited.
    An editing job can easily utterly reverse the meaning of spoken word by omitting context. These con-artists refuse to release the full video, and have been caught out repeatedly. They deserve zero credibility; a broken clock may be right twice a day, but that doesn't mean you should even consider telling time by it.

  23. #1198
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Some of it could easily just have been the guy bragging and making shit up and some of it could easily have been taken out of context. And stuff like using rental cars to rig the election on a massive scale doesn't seem even remotely plausible.

  24. #1199
    Member
    Registered: Jun 1999
    Location: Procrastination, Australia
    It's interesting to me that once more people are trying to hang a Clinton less for doing something wrong but for lying about it (presumably that's the handiest legal stick available). And like last time it seems like utter prejudiced desperation on the part of people who can't hack losing (or looking like they're going to lose in this case).

    I don't think you'd get that to quite the same extent elsewhere. I could have forgotten an instant or two. But I don't think it'd be lead with in quite the same way. That sort of apparent moral turpitude really sells over there. (and everybody uses it, from time to time. Although conservatives generally take themselves to hold the moral high ground so it seems to have more sway there)

  25. #1200
    Member
    Registered: Oct 2002
    Location: London / London / London
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    An editing job can easily utterly reverse the meaning of spoken word by omitting context.
    Yeah absolutely, as masterfully pointed out by charlie bigballs here. Asif Kapadia, much as I enjoy his films, is also massively guilty of this.


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