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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

Voters
142. You may not vote on this poll
  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    26 18.31%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    49 34.51%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    50 35.21%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    4 2.82%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    13 9.15%

Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dump! ✮✮✮

  1. #12801
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Last time, there were huge mobs of people outside his venues causing all sorts of headaches for local law enforcement to manage the crowds and traffic. This time, a relatively quiet crowd hanging around the arena. I'll grant you that he's not contesting a primary this time around.
    Yes, that's likely the reason for a small reduction of visible street support, at the moment.

    However, keep in mind that even as we speak, Trump is still getting five times the turnout of the entire Dem candidate field.


    His biggest primary concern is that Bill Weld might get 10% of the vote instead of 2%.
    It's highly likely that Weld will be crushed into irrelevance...Right now, I estimate a 98% probability of Trump emerging victorious in 2020.

  2. #12802
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    However, keep in mind that even as we speak, Trump is still getting five times the turnout of the entire Dem candidate field.
    Source for this? The only thing I can find on Trump's turnout votes, and potential bad news for the Democrats, is this. It's not great, but it's not the doom 'n gloom you're preaching. The Iowa Democrat caucus brought out 175,000 people to their various campaigns, while Trump's brought out 30,000 for him alone in a nigh uncontested field.

  3. #12803
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Currently Trump is getting less than half of the Democratic field in New Hampshire. ...Which is kind of a lot, actually, given his relative lack of opposition, but it's nothing resembling five times as much.

    EDIT: I assume - well, hope - Vae is talking about rally sizes, and not voter turnout?

    Trump never stopped throwing campaign rallies, which in any other presidency would've been amongst the weirdest aspects of it, but in Trump's presidency doesn't out-weird your average Tuesday.
    Last edited by Pyrian; 11th Feb 2020 at 23:32.

  4. #12804
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Like it or not democrats are the ones making everyone with common sense to vote for trump

  5. #12805
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I love how one day JK's all like "FUCK YEAH, I'D VOTE FOR BERNIE", then the next "THE DEMOCRATS ARE SCARING AWAY THE AVERAGE VOTER!"

    Trolls can only troll so long as their trolling isn't obvious. Which I guess it isn't yet, because someone WILL give a serious reply to this.

  6. #12806
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Honestly, if the "average voter" isn't terrified by Trump, there's nothing the Democratic field can offer that would perturb them.

    ...So who is Amy Klobuchar again and why is she suddenly a contender?
    Last edited by Pyrian; 12th Feb 2020 at 00:07.

  7. #12807
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Currently Trump is getting less than half of the Democratic field in New Hampshire. ...Which is kind of a lot, actually, given his relative lack of opposition, but it's nothing resembling five times as much.

    EDIT: I assume - well, hope - Vae is talking about rally sizes, and not voter turnout?
    Yes, that is correct...That was the context of the conversation.

  8. #12808
    Chakat sex pillow
    Registered: Sep 2006
    Location: not here
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I love how one day JK's all like "FUCK YEAH, I'D VOTE FOR BERNIE", then the next "THE DEMOCRATS ARE SCARING AWAY THE AVERAGE VOTER!"

    Trolls can only troll so long as their trolling isn't obvious. Which I guess it isn't yet, because someone WILL give a serious reply to this.
    No, he's been trolling here long enough and obviously enough that that's patently not true. He's a dingbat collector, and attempting conversation with him in a serious context is for people who have too much time and too little sense on their hands. Or, you know. Dingbats.

  9. #12809
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Honestly, if the "average voter" isn't terrified by Trump, there's nothing the Democratic field can offer that would perturb them.

    ...So who is Amy Klobuchar again and why is she suddenly a contender?
    She does well in Midwestern states, apparently, and among more conservative Democratic voters. And looks like quite a lot of people bleeding from Biden have been going to Buttigieg and her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sulphur View Post
    No, he's been trolling here long enough and obviously enough that that's patently not true. He's a dingbat collector, and attempting conversation with him in a serious context is for people who have too much time and too little sense on their hands. Or, you know. Dingbats.
    Uh... *shuffles feet nervously*

  10. #12810
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    We're all dingbats now.

  11. #12811
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    To paraphrase the immortal words of JFK... Du bist ein dingbat.

  12. #12812
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Nein sie.

  13. #12813
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Anyway, looks like Bernie won New Hampshire, bringing his total number of delegates up to 21. Now he only needs 1970 more delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Here's a handy chart of the whole process: https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/79997...andidates-have

  14. #12814
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Weird to think Biden's slipped so low. I figured voters would go for him, given his image as the Safe Option, most likely to beat Trump.

    Though Sanders could be said to represent a similar niche Trump did, and is attractive to voters for similar reasons. We all seem to want someone outside the status quo, and we're all rushing to pick anyone who represents that.

  15. #12815
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    It is highly unlikely the DNC will allow a far-left candidate, like Sanders, to become the nominee...because even they know the only chance they have, albeit a very slim chance, is to offer someone center-left for the General Election. Although the most important thing the Dems can do right now is to strategize how best to lose...This will determine the future of the Democrat party.

  16. #12816
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    There's only so much the DNC can do. All you have to do is look at Trump's run in 2016, and the interference the GOP tried tossing out in front of him to see that.

    As for the election, all it'll do is determine the DNC's fate in 2020-2022. Right now, our entire political infrastructure is in flux. We have a far left trying to jam its way into the traditionally center-slightly right leaning Democrat party, and the Republicans are in the final stages of purging the moderates and classic conservatives from their party. These people won't just sit around unrepresented. They're going to do something to get their voices heard again.

    And don't assume Trump's reelection is a 98% near-guarantee. The odds favor him, considering he's an incumbent backed by a strong economy, but he's not a shoe-in, even with Sanders as the DNC nominee. The country's split right down the middle on Trump, and all it'll take is a solid campaign strategy in a few key states to push 0.5% of the voters there away from him, and they've got the presidency.

    This is what gave Trump his victory in '16, and he could very easily end up being victimized by the same strategy.

  17. #12817
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Bernie did very well in those states in 2016 also and this is just the beginning. Momentum matters, yes, but so does nation-wide appeal, name ID, and support among non-white voters, for example. Biden still has a lot going for him, so I would not count him out just yet.

    But yes, one of Bernie's most underestimated abilities is a knack for channeling lingering resentments. Lord Dampnut right now is supporting Bernie, hoping he would be the easiest candidate to beat, but that may well prove out to be a fatal mistake.

  18. #12818
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    don't assume Trump's reelection is a 98% near-guarantee.
    It's not an assumption, it's a calculation...Mark my words, the only way Trump will lose 2020, is that an unforeseen major health incident (or similar) occurs in the coming months which would force him to resign and the Dems would run against Pence. Trump will win against any current Dem candidate head-to-head, period. Any one of them are are simply outclassed by his practical accomplishments and his mastery of persuasion.

    He owns the center...and he who owns the center wins the election.

  19. #12819
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    But yes, one of Bernie's most underestimated abilities is a knack for channeling lingering resentments. Lord Dampnut right now is supporting Bernie, hoping he would be the easiest candidate to beat, but that may well prove out to be a fatal mistake.
    Were he to do so, it'd mirror what happened in 2016, when Hillary and the DNC promoted Trump on the assumption he'd be the most easily disposed of in the general election.

    I'd normally consider Sanders unelectable, but he's been getting support from places I never would've expected to see him getting support from. I think the safest bet right now is to assume that none of us will be able to accurately predict how 2020 will turn out. It's strange days in America land, and nothing is a sure bet.

  20. #12820
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    It's not an assumption, it's a calculation...
    Upon what metrics?

    He owns the center...and he who owns the center wins the election.
    Trump's support among independent voters is squarely in the wishy-washy territory, far from outright owning them.

  21. #12821
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Indeed, and I can imagine the media giving similar publicity to Sanders and his "radical communist" agenda.

    Oh, and it's not a question of hypotheticals, he is supporting Sanders.

  22. #12822

  23. #12823
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Re: the four US Att'y prosecutors that resigned in protest over political interference in the Stone sentencing... whenever a former senior official at DOJ says there's a four alarm fire happening at the US Department of Justice right now and it's thrown into the mountainous pile of so much liberal whining as usual, it makes me wonder what's real anymore. At this point the US federal gov't has pretty much settled into banana republic norms. In before "it's always been like that lol". I worked with DOJ back in 2004. No. It wasn't like that.

  24. #12824
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Well, like Senate Republicans said, Lord Dampnut has learned his lesson. This is just him putting it into practice. And it's not like corruption of your institutions and democratic norms wasn't one of the main dishes on his plate before.


    Anyway, something that caught my eye in a NYT article I was reading about the Equifax breach:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/o...a-hacking.html

    According to a 2019 class-action lawsuit, the company’s cybersecurity practices were a nightmare. The suit alleged that “sensitive personal information relating to hundreds of millions of Americans was not encrypted, but instead was stored in plain text” and “was accessible through a public-facing, widely used website.” Another example of the company’s weak safeguards, according to the suit, shows the company struggling to use a competent password system. “Equifax employed the username ‘admin’ and the password ‘admin’ to protect a portal used to manage credit disputes,” it read.
    I have to say, the cavalier attitude to privacy issues in the US and the public's apathy towards it never fails to send shudders down my spine. It's not like the EU is perfect in this regard, but at least we enjoy some control over our personal data and at least some amount of legal protection from stuff like this.

  25. #12825
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    Amy Klobuchar is New Hampshire's type. We have a long track record of electing moderate women, especially Democrats. So I don't think she's as strong nationally as she is here. But she and Buttigieg are sharing the spoils from Biden's implosion.

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