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View Poll Results: How long will Trump be President?

Voters
161. You may not vote on this poll
  • 1 Term (4 Years)

    31 19.25%
  • 2 Terms (8 Years)

    54 33.54%
  • 1st Term Impeachment/Assassination

    51 31.68%
  • 2nd Term Impeachment/Assassination

    5 3.11%
  • I don't know what's going on!

    20 12.42%

Thread: ✮✮✮ !Trump Dumped! ✮✮✮

  1. #16001
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    So questioning someone's motives in accusing their ex of major crimes based on sketchy evidence is a stretch, but thinking a 22 year old set out to commit treason and espionage based on a second-hand story isn't?

    Again, the part where there was confusion about whether she stole a laptop or a hard drive was not in how she intended to send it to the SVR, it was where the lover claimed to have seen a video of her stealing either a laptop or a hard drive and then either having kept or destroyed it. And it's all based on what the person reportedly heard from "her friends". Can you see how a game of telephone like that is not necessarily the most reliable source of information?

    The part about a laptop being stolen was publicised on January 8 when the aide whose laptop it was tweeted about it. It has been public knowledge for a while.

    Also, it makes no sense to assume that the whole story is either a complete fabrication or completely true with no grey areas in between. Eyewitness testimony is not necessarily the most reliable, especially when relayed from person to person. Where did "her friends" get the information in the first place? Was that first hand knowledge or did they hear it from someone else? Did everyone from that chain relay the information completely and accurately? These are all questions you have to contend with.
    Last edited by Starker; 20th Jan 2021 at 03:25.

  2. #16002
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Okay, so let me present an alternative story. I don't think that's what necessarily happened, but it's just for the sake of making a point, so humour me for a bit, alright?

    Williams went to the Capitol to "take part in the revolution" with her friends (you're unlikely to do something like that alone) for whatever reason, whether it was because she got caught up in the alt-right conspiracy theories and general fearmongering about the left or anything else. When people started pushing past police lines and breaking in, she and her friends joined the mob and joined a group who were heading for Pelosi's office. Along the way she gave directions to her friends to not get separated. While in the office, she or one of her friends happened to find a random laptop and stashed it. They hang around the Capitol until the mob was pushed out by the cavalry.

    When they got home, they posted some videos of them in Pelosi's office and maybe bragged in a chatroom or somewhere how they had gotten their hands on Pelosi's hard drives or something like that and then spitballed what to do with the laptop using typical edgy adolescent "humour" that's common online, rife with hyperbole and exaggeration in the vein of, "Let's sell it to Russia, I know a guy who lives there." And maybe they talked about how they should just smash it or something.

    Some mutual acquaintances of her and her ex who were in the chatroom told about it to her ex who, in righteous anger and taking it at face value, went to the FBI and told them about everything they had heard without really knowing what had actually happened -- how she must have stolen a laptop or maybe a hard drive and tried to sell it to Russia and maybe had destroyed it or maybe not. Then, when the FBI published a Statement of Facts in the case including all the salacious accusations, the media picked it up and upon visiting her mother and hearing how she had not been home, jumped to the conclusion she must be on the run from the FBI (she actually surrendered to the authorities the very next day they started searching for her) and did you hear about how she was trying to sell the laptop to Russia!? Allegedly.
    Now, which story do you think is more plausible? That or her being a ringleader who organised a mob of rioters to attack Pelosi's office and stole her laptop in order to deliver it to Russian Foreign Intelligence Service? At the ripe old age of 22.

    No doubt we will hear more details of the case, but there is this thing called Occam's razor to apply in situations like these -- when there are two theories that equally explain all the facts, there is no reason to prefer the more far-fetched one that is much more unlikely to occur.
    Last edited by Starker; 20th Jan 2021 at 04:43.

  3. #16003
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Doesn't matter.
    She's a witch.
    BURN HER!



    (Just kidding, I agree with you. I hate it when people who are supposed to be on the same side as I am, act as dumb and as vengeful as the people on the other side. You have to try and be fair, human, honest. Otherwise our side is just as bad as the other side).

  4. #16004
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2020
    Nobody's saying burn the witch, just reporting what the news is saying. I'm not making up stuff to make her look guilty, i was just saying there's no justification for fantasizing about supposed motives of her accuser. In this case, the FBI arrested her, and I believe the FBI to be competent enough that they did so with good information, so theorizing about ill motives of the informant which mean the charges are bullshit is really just making stuff up that's not even in the story. Yes, there can be stuff that's just rumor-mongering, but when that leads to actual arrests by the FBI it's safer to assume there was something to the rumors, on the balance of probability. They get a lot of tips, they don't act on most of them.

    Update:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/2021/...june-williams/

    HARRISBURG, Pa. — A 22-year-old from Pennsylvania was charged Tuesday with helping to steal a laptop from the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during the storming of the U.S. Capitol, one of two new alleged felonies for which the defendant could face decades in prison.

    The FBI says Riley June Williams appears to have filmed and then shared a video of another person lifting an HP computer off a desk, according to an updated affidavit posted Tuesday night. The affidavit links to images of all-caps, typo-riddled social media posts from a user named “Riley” who declares that they “STOLE S — T FROM NANCY POLESI.”
    It's pretty clear that the third party involved merely shared the video with the FBI.

    Williams was initially charged with trespassing as well as violent entry to and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds. On Tuesday, authorities added new charges: aiding or abetting the theft of government property and obstructing, influencing or impeding an official proceeding.

    [...]

    Capitol Police confirmed that an HP laptop was stolen from the speaker’s office, the FBI said. Drew Hammill, deputy chief of staff for Pelosi, said Jan. 8 that a laptop “only used for presentations” was taken from a conference room.

    Hammill did not respond to questions from The Washington Post.
    [...]
    Law enforcement soon obtained video clips that W1 said were recorded and live-streamed by Williams, then captured by a friend, according to the amended affidavit filed Tuesday. One four-second video captures a female voice — which an agent believes to be Williams — saying “Dude, put on gloves,” before a black-gloved hand takes a computer from a table. A caption across the clip says, “they got the laptop.”
    So we don't know whether this is the same thing that got taken from the conference room after all. What we do know is that the device they took in the video had the HP brand, and that WP claims the Capital Police said a HP laptop was stolen from Pelosi's office, and they posted a video to social media about it claiming that they got a laptop. Maybe the idea of selling it to the Russians was them blowing hot air, but I don't think there's much doubt they got their hands on it.

    I'm not witch hunting anyone in this story, just assuming everyone is telling the truth**, and keep in mind that this guy is probably about 22 years old too, so if it's unlikely for a 22 year old girl to hatch some harebrained scheme, then it's much less likely for a 22 year old guy who wasn't even involved to be able to concoct the entire story as a pretend scheme, have that match her actual movements and known events by the FBI, to the point he could trick the FBI into arresting her.

    Stealing something and saying you're going to sell it to the Russians is one thing, but tricking the FBI into thinking *someone else* who you don't even have physical contact with stole something and was going to sell it to the Russians, AND get them arrested over it. That would be master level shit.

    ** You can definitely be charged with a felony for lying to the FBI. 5 years is the sentence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Making_false_statements

    While it's *possible* that an ex could just be lying to the FBI about the whole story because of a grievance, it's exceedingly unlikely. I wouldn't assume that because the person is someone's ex (regardless of male ex or female ex) that this makes it at all probable that the testimony is bullshit. Maybe it goes up from 0.5% unlikely to 0.8% unlikely that it's bullshit if the person is their ex. But it's definitely not more likely than them giving accurate testimony.
    Last edited by Cipheron; 20th Jan 2021 at 10:07.

  5. #16005
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    I don't know the details of what's going on, but it's not worth dwelling too much on one person anyway (especially) when there's a vastly bigger story going on.

    So any bets on what happens tomorrow? My personal feeling is, I don't know how anyone could have any energy left to be up in arms. Isn't the whole thing just exhausting at this point? But I recognize that my powers of empathy are limited in seeing the world through the eyes of T***p insurgents.

    I hope there's not violence; I'm worried there might be some; but I think it'll be sporadic and small anyway, if nothing else just for logistical reasons. Nobody is going to be changing anything. But I don't know.

    The meme I see getting tossed around by the right-leaning crowd these days is the same photos of some mass of Guatemalans that are apparently going to be swarming into the US the minute Biden becomes president. FFS, that was an absurdly fake boogyman when T***p sent the national guard or soldiers or whoever in to literally guard an empty stretch of desert last year or whenever. How can they still be so enraged by such cheap hate-fodder?

    This would be a good year for another one of those summers of love. Lord knows we need it.

  6. #16006
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    You have to try and be fair, human, honest.
    But stern nonetheless. Or "Ahah, stupid libtard snowflake, I got the best of you!!!11111" reaction is guaranteed. And they (auto)feed their confidence on this kind of "victories".
    It's why they're so persistent and see theyselves as "ultimate patriots" and laugh at everybody else: it's the way for the fool to maintain his confidence.

    And I pity the fool
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Jan 2021 at 11:02.

  7. #16007
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    I hope there's not violence; I'm worried there might be some; but I think it'll be sporadic and small anyway, if nothing else just for logistical reasons. Nobody is going to be changing anything. But I don't know.
    I read somewhere that a talking point on a lot of the dickhead forums is there are a lot of people advising to stay away from any planned riots, as they are supposed FBI honeypots. So the intersection between dickheads and conspiracy theorists might actually be useful for once (assuming it is true and prevalent enough to make an impact).

    This would be a good year for another one of those summers of love. Lord knows we need it.
    Almost half of the vote went to The Dickhead. I can't see that many assholes just evaporating once he fucks off.

  8. #16008
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2020
    Quote Originally Posted by faetal View Post
    Almost half of the vote went to The Dickhead. I can't see that many assholes just evaporating once he fucks off.
    Give it 18 months. You'll have people saying conservatives never voted for Trump and he was a liberal plot the whole time.

    Don't underestimate how quickly those guys can unmake someone once they're no longer useful.

    "Trump? Who? Oh, that guy you liberals were always obsessed with".

  9. #16009
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Ha ha. I believe it!

    Lady Gaga wasn't bad. I liked her outfit.

  10. #16010
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Anyone know what Jennifer Lopez shouted in Spanish?

  11. #16011
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Surprise. It's 17:05 UTC. Biden is still alive.

  12. #16012
    verbose douchebag
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Lyon, France
    Quote Originally Posted by Cipheron View Post
    Give it 18 months. You'll have people saying conservatives never voted for Trump and he was a liberal plot the whole time.

    Don't underestimate how quickly those guys can unmake someone once they're no longer useful.

    "Trump? Who? Oh, that guy you liberals were always obsessed with".
    Maybe, but it's feasible that Trump is a symptom, rather than the cause of the assholes.
    Case in point.

  13. #16013
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    "1 Term" wins.

  14. #16014
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Cipheron View Post
    In this case, the FBI arrested her, and I believe the FBI to be competent enough that they did so with good information, so theorizing about ill motives of the informant which mean the charges are bullshit is really just making stuff up that's not even in the story.
    I never said the things she was actually charged with were bullshit. I'm not saying the ex must necessarily be lying or that they made the whole story up. All I've been saying is that it's a lot of accusation the newspaper stories are putting out based on one (quite likely adversarial) person's account, especially since the details are so vague and suspect, that's all. And as I've tried to demonstrate to you, there are a lot of things that could be wrong with one person's second-hand account of the events, even if they are believing to be telling the truth. You are hung up about the ex, but it's the account of the events that I have been pointing out is suspicious. Notice how the things that she was actually charged with were different from what the initial stories indicated and how the details of the story have changed substantially? Don't fall for the sensationalism of the media and don't jump to conclusions is the lesson I have been pointing out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cipheron View Post
    ** You can definitely be charged with a felony for lying to the FBI. 5 years is the sentence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Making_false_statements
    Knowingly making false statements to the FBI, especially when interviewed by an agent or giving testimony is a crime. Leaving a tip that you can later say you believed was true is very hard to prove in court. Similarly, exaggerating about something or speculating about something is not necessarily a material lie. Again, the reason I am doubting the more sensational parts of the story is not because I'm convinced that the ex must be a scumbag or something, the reason is that the details have been so vague and speculatory and based on the statements of one side only. Not taking someone at face value is not the same as accusing them of making the entire thing up.

    As for the idea that the FBI would never arrest anyone, if they didn't have a good reason... Having a good reason to arrest someone doesn't necessarily mean all the information the FBI gets is completely true and should always be believed 100 percent. Especially not when the FBI themselves aren't saying they believe it to be true.

    I mean...

    The affidavit links to images of all-caps, typo-riddled social media posts from a user named “Riley” who declares that they “STOLE S — T FROM NANCY POLESI.”

    [...]

    One four-second video captures a female voice — which an agent believes to be Williams — saying “Dude, put on gloves,” before a black-gloved hand takes a computer from a table. A caption across the clip says, “they got the laptop.”
    What a master ringleader and spy. Now do you not think it more likely she's just a dumb teenager* who got caught up in things?

    * by mentality, not by age
    Last edited by Starker; 20th Jan 2021 at 17:52.

  15. #16015
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2003
    Location: The Plateaux Of Mirror
    No option for 1 term/2 impeachments, so we all lose.

  16. #16016
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Come on guys. What did Lopez say?

  17. #16017
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2011
    Location: Ferrol - Spain
    Una nación bajo Dios, indivisible, con libertad y justicia para todos.

    One nation under God, indivisible, with freedom and justice for all.

  18. #16018
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Thanks!

  19. #16019
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Too bad Yahweh made an appearance. He's got a lot of blame to bear for what's wrong with America. Not just that specific religious ideology but the whole God Is With Us mind set. The myth that the nation of the USA is not a secular work in progress but a personal manifestation of one of the most vile characters in the human imagination, the same one used to justify the rights of monarchs and slave owners.

    Sorry, not sorry.

  20. #16020
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    "vile"?
    More like schizoid by the book (not so bad when you need a guide-figure.....like in the old semitic tribal world )

    It's impossible to imagine USA without the "god" rhetoric.
    Putin's Russia too.

  21. #16021
    ZylonBane
    Registered: Sep 2000
    Location: ZylonBane
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Anyone know what Jennifer Lopez shouted in Spanish?
    "My hovercraft is full of eels!"

  22. #16022
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason Moyer View Post
    No option for 1 term/2 impeachments, so we all lose.
    The question is "how long will Trump be president" so 1 term wins. ...Why is this so hard for so many people?

  23. #16023
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Well, I never thought he would last 4 whole years, but here we are. Then again, I never thought the people of the US would actually elect someone like him to be president, so clearly I had a far more rosy perception of the US than was warranted. And I don't think the world will soon forget this side of the US.

    Can't say the whole thing wasn't entertaining, though. With daily scandals and a protagonist as base and vulgar and incompetent, how could it not have been? It's funny that he started his presidency with the American Carnage speech when it would have been far more appropriate for Biden to have done so. Hundreds of thousands of people dead, millions of jobs lost, the Capitol ransacked and vandalised... Instead, Biden started his presidency with a vigil for the dead and a message of hope and inspiration from a young poet:



    One interesting coincidence -- this girl has struggled with a speech impediment, just like Biden.
    Last edited by Starker; 20th Jan 2021 at 19:51.

  24. #16024
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2002
    Location: In my room
    I'm sure that speech felt good to a lot of people. The pathos with which she speaks about a country at an official political event is still deeply foreign to me. Not only because I entertain no such deep feelings for any land, but because I believe that pathos and emotions are utterly misplaced in countries and politics. They can too easily lead to absolutist antagonistic thinking and sweeping judgements. Even if it's all well meant, I vastly prefer politics to be a sober factual work matter.

  25. #16025
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Quote Originally Posted by bassoferrol View Post
    Una nación bajo Dios, indivisible, con libertad y justicia para todos.

    One nation under God, indivisible, with freedom and justice for all.
    "Liberty and justice for all" you unamerian yarnball.

    That's a joke because you're clearly not American, but we're in the era where we have to explain these things. But anyway, it's the end of the US's pledge to our flag which basically every kid says every morning in every classroom in the country. So it's triggering something positively Pavlovian when you start saying the words.

    Edit: Somebody above mentioned the lasting effects of all that cold war propaganda, for which the pledge became one important element. It's dangerous when people start putting more love into the symbols and phrases than they do towards their own population, and we're seeing patriotism being cynically wrought backwards to make people distrust each other right now. That kind of Pavlovian instinct can be worked for good though, too, so in the immediate case it's good that Biden can appeal to it to pull people towards our classic values of tolerance & rule of law and all of that. But in the long run it's still unnerving.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    The question is "how long will Trump be president" so 1 term wins. ...Why is this so hard for so many people?
    Because if the 2nd impeachment is ratified, it may arguably have the legal effect of nullifying the 1st term, and then he will not have legally been president for "1 term". That's a debate we can have anyway (I'm not even saying it's a good argument), but let's cross that bridge if/when we get there.
    Last edited by demagogue; 20th Jan 2021 at 20:17.

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