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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #251
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    It seems the number of infected in Italy didn't go up by much today. Maybe the lock-down is working.

    That gives some hopes.
    Just lock down your country, wait until you get no new infections.
    Remove the lock-down.
    Wait till traveling tourists and business-people infect your country again.

    Of course I don't know anything for sure. But we might need to have the whole world go in lock-down for a month or 2 before this is under control. That would be very interesting to see.

    I'm not kidding. I just can't imagine another way to fix this. Look at illnesses like polio. How long did it take to really get that under control ? And we have vaccins for that. When you think we have the corona-virus under control, just a single person can (re-)infect a bunch of people again. And we start from scratch again.

    The only way I see we get this under control is (as I've said before): 1) the infection spreads less aggressive during spring/summer, *and* 2) in the mean time someone finds a cure, a vaccine, or a decent/fast/cheap treatment for this.

  2. #252
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    we can't afford to be on lock down.

  3. #253
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    We don't know shit about immunological memory for this virus and its mutation capabilities.

    The fact it's from the same family of the common cold and we can catch cold multiple times in a row is not reassuring.....

  4. #254
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    we can't afford to be on lock down.
    You'll be surprised what is possible.

    We have the Internet today. That helps. Many people can work from home. If you want to be entertained, you can be entertained over the net for a long time. You can communicate with friends and family to make it less bad to stay at home for long period of time.

    Of course part of the economy needs to keep running full-speed. And people need to leave their houses for that. The energy sector. Farmers. Shops. I'm not sure how the Chinese are doing their lockdowns, but I believe they have restrictions where every family can have one person go out once per week to do shopping. Maybe delivery of groceries can be increased. Half of the population does not work in the western world (elderly, kids, house-wives, unemployed, handicapped). No need for them to go outside. Of the working people, half of them do work that's useless anyway. They can stay at home too. It might be tricky to figure out how people can afford stuff, but I'm sure we can be creative. (I've read today that people in Italy are allowed to skip paying their mortgage this months).

    As I've said, it's gonna be interesting to watch.

  5. #255
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    ok, those in retail- manufacturing -service among others can't afford to stay home .

  6. #256
    Got tipped off this article on another forum where they said to go read the comments section: https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020...just-the-flu/#

    Holy shit:

    Changed his dialogue on the virus overnight. Sounded like he was reading a memo from Paul Never-Trumper Ryan. Really disappointing.
    I quit watching Tucker since the virus started.

    He is putting fear into America.

    I cannot watch that garbage.

    I have always enjoyed his show up until now.
    Good on Tucker. First he went after Sanger and now he's pissing off the Boomer NPCs. Dude is doing something right lately.

    You'll be surprised what is possible.

    We have the Internet today. That helps. Many people can work from home. If you want to be entertained, you can be entertained over the net for a long time. You can communicate with friends and family to make it less bad to stay at home for long period of time.
    That's an extremely sheltered opinion for reason jkcerda points out. White collar business and IT people can work from home. A lot of others can't.

  7. #257
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I just got back from Rockmart, GA. Way out in the grand middle of freaking nowhere, though fairly close enough to Rome (where the Berry College eagles are!), which had a single coronavirus case pop up here a few days ago.

    ...or at least they did, until they reidentified as happening in one of the Atlanta suburbs.

    Things were pretty normal there. People going around, doing their thing, occasionally bumming me for cigarettes which I don't have anymore since I quit 6 months ago. All in all, didn't seem much different.

    Though when someone coughed, everyone would stop what they were doing, and wonder.

  8. #258
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    You all might think I'm being sarcastic with what I'm about to say, that I'm making light of a potentially bad situation. But I'm not...

    Wanna know how I'm sure shit's about to get real? This is how.A Waffle House Has Closed Due To Coronavirus.

    Waffle Houses don't just close, people. It takes a tremendous act of god for to lock its doors. The last time I saw my local Waffle House close was back in 2011, and that was because a goddamn EF4 tornado knocked it down. At the time, there were people freshly stuffed with food standing around in the parking lot filming the funnel cloud coming right towards them. I kid you not. I'll see if I can find that video on Youtube again.

    So when a Waffle House closes, it's cause for concern. If 10 close, we can all pretty well consider ourselves fucked.

  9. #259
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    I felt miserable yesterday and this morning, but then I heard my coworkers also felt miserable, it was nausea (not flu-like), and it happened very rapidly, and then we realized we'd all probably just been food poisoned by the restaurant we ate at the night before. I have to say I was relieved.

  10. #260
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Was the food good, at least?

  11. #261
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    You mean by standards of food that gives you food poisoning?

  12. #262
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Some bad foods apparently taste pretty good. There's a whole cottage industry built around letting meat rot a bit, then selling it to people as "aged."

    Plus, there have been times I've been food poisoned by a meal I actually enjoyed. Well, the first time, anyway. It wasn't as good coming back up.

  13. #263
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    It was Okinawa-style soba with "spare rib". Yeah it was pretty good. I wasn't really food poisoned, I just felt a little nausea the next day, and I'm just assuming it was that place because a few of the others also felt off (but not all of them). Could have also just been a coincidence.

  14. #264
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.

  15. #265
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    First people started panic buying, now they are panic refunding. Only, it's buyers remorse... Because no refunds.


  16. #266
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    I work part-time in a retail store and I'm disgusted by the amount of hoarding going on. Otherwise sensible people are showing up at our checkout registers with two or even three shopping carts overloaded with cases of water, hand sanitizer, toilet paper and cleaning supplies. Afaic, those people are deplorably selfish and I wish our store would establish an anti-hoarding policy (like, only two cases of water per customer, etc.). I've had my ass chewed out by other irate customers, like one young woman who was pissed off because our store was out of baby wipes and her 6 month old baby had diarrhea, or because all one little old lady wanted was one fucking 12 pack of bottled water so she could take her meds (she said her tap water was too 'dirty' to drink). Yep, I'm getting yelled and cursed at like it's all MY fault, while having to watch those with money to burn hoard everything from water to baby wipes, ffs. Omg, I am SO regretting my decision to get a part-time job in retail rather than go back to the office full-time. *smh*

  17. #267
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Here is our fucktard of a prime-minister.

    He held a press conference to tell the nation they're not really doing anything.
    Only advice given: don't shake hands anymore. and don't touch each other anyway.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-eu...ands-then-does

    Then goes on to shake hands with the other guy on the podium.
    When people alert him to the fact that he just shook someone's hand 10 seconds after telling us to not shake hands, he grabs the man by the arm, then by the neck. Touches him for 5 seconds.

    I didn't vote for him.

    Edit: Trump isn't a lot smarter.

    ==
    On a more serious note. I found this on YouTube. It's voice-messages (send via WhatApp) between Italian medici. I have no idea if it's real or a hoax. It's so long, that I think it's not a hoax. Maybe lowenz can tell more.


    ==
    Personal update: yesterday we had the first infected in my village. Today we have 3 infected. Total infections in NL went up by 121 today (largest increase so far), to 503. With 5 deaths.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 11th Mar 2020 at 11:17.

  18. #268
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.
    Check out this map, it includes recovered cases:
    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

    The death rate is going up for the reasons you mentioned. The early estimates were 2%. The WHO estimate I saw yesterday was 3.4%. Just going by the current WHO case count, it's 3.6% (4290/118162).

    Probably the best estimate comes from China, where the rate of new infections has slowed to a trickle.

    Current stats from China:
    80967 confirmed cases
    61653 recovered
    3162 deaths

    The lower bound assuming no further deaths is 3162/80967 = 3.9%
    A better estimate is probably 3162/(61653+3162) = 4.9%

    Iran is reporting a large number of recovered cases and the infection rate seems to be slowing there. Their numbers are 9000 total, 2959 recovered, and 354 deaths. So the death rate there could end up around 10%. It's too early to say anything about Europe, North America, or the rest of the world.

    A lot depends on whether hospitals can keep up with the case load. In places where the health care system is overloaded and the seriously ill can't get the best available treatment, the death rate will be higher. In places with a relatively small number of isolated cases (usually travel related), the death rate will be lower. So I suspect Italy will have some bad numbers and Singapore will have good numbers.

  19. #269
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    You mean by standards of food that gives you food poisoning?
    Ever been to an authentic Mexican restaurant? Good shit but you'll pay the price later.

  20. #270
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...demic-who-says
    Coronavirus: COVID-19 Is Now Officially A Pandemic, WHO Says

  21. #271
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    ==
    On a more serious note. I found this on YouTube. It's voice-messages (send via WhatApp) between Italian medici. I have no idea if it's real or a hoax. It's so long, that I think it's not a hoax. Maybe lowenz can tell more.
    .
    Hoax but realistic for 40 yo and up.
    Not for 20 yo.

  22. #272
    This is the "basics" from the very top of the CDC's FAQ on the coronavirus:



    This is what the CDC thinks is most important to discuss about the situation.

  23. #273
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvester View Post
    Here in the Netherlands, in one of our 12 provinces, called Noord-Brabant, the infection rate is the highest. In that province, the government asks you to stay at home even with mild health complaints (like you could also just have a cold, but stay home just to be on the safe side). People are asked to work from their homes if their job allows it.
    Good idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    buddy with family in Spain says they are looking to lock up the country as well.
    Good idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.
    Probably less that 1% in reality. Based of S Korean data where they have done widespread testing.


    Italy's death rate, and especially that stratification, is now not pool-able with other data. The steps taken because of lack of capacity mean that many people will reach a treatment ceiling (artificial ventilation) based on X criteria. Ordinarily a high proportion of these people will live, if ventilated. Without, it's a dice roll and therefore not reflective of what we'd see with capacity.

    This is a grim as it gets, outside sci-fi.

  24. #274
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    PS. The USA is in serious trouble. It's not been taken seriously, the politics and economics of it there are going to obfuscate any attempts to be sensible. Sadly. Good luck guys.

  25. #275
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Italy's death rate, and especially that stratification, is now not pool-able with other data. The steps taken because of lack of capacity mean that many people will reach a treatment ceiling (artificial ventilation) based on X criteria. Ordinarily a high proportion of these people will live, if ventilated. Without, it's a dice roll and therefore not reflective of what we'd see with capacity.

    This is a grim as it gets, outside sci-fi.
    Yes.
    We are there NOW.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usual_...tial_pneumonia

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