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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #2901
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Wait, that is the choice the states are facing in the US? Either open all schools or none of them? You guys are more screwed than I imagined :/. Here I thought every state decided on a county by county basis where schools can reopen and under what circumstances. Like, as you mentioned, having very few cases for a period of time and getting testing and tracing capabilities to a level where outbreaks can be quickly and easily contained, and being able to take cross-border traffic into account.

    Also, it looks like you really need some form of centralised institution to set guidelines and coordinate the response. Like some Headquarters for Illness Management and Avoidance or something.
    Last edited by Starker; 4th Aug 2020 at 15:46.

  2. #2902
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Wait, that is the choice the states are facing in the US? Either open all schools or none of them?
    No, not at all. But heywood's right that a lot of media (and politicians) are presenting the situation in that way. (I wouldn't be so quick to blame them, though; it's the general public that tends to hunger for oversimplified answers.) Legally speaking, the federal government has little authority over local districts. Such decisions are largely made at the state and local levels.

  3. #2903
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    I don't think the states want to be in the position of making one-size-fits-all policies. But everyone demanded the states come up with a re-opening plan. I can't speak for all states, but in this region of the country (New England), when state guidelines were released around the end of June, they were mostly voluntary, in order to leave it up to the districts to tailor them to their own situation. That resulted in a backlash, especially from the teachers' unions, who wanted a common set of rules statewide and they wanted them to be mandatory. There were unhappy parents and a lot of media commentary complaining about it too. More recently, the largest teachers union nationally is threatening to strike, although most states don't allow teacher strikes or only allow them under certain conditions e.g. if they don't have a contract. So I don't think that's a credible threat, but in some states it might be.

    There's also one important thing notably missing from the reopening guidelines released by states near me. There's no guidance to help districts assess the Covid-19 situation in their community and decide when it's safe to reopen and to what degree. Likewise, there's no guidance about how to respond to clusters of cases (only individual positives) or what conditions should trigger schools to close again. The assumption everyone is making is that the state will tell everyone when it's safe to open and if/when to close again.

    Over the last week or two, I've seen and heard the topic of school reopening discussed and debated on various TV and radio news and current events programs. I've also read a number of opinion pieces. And like I was saying, the debate seems to be binary.

  4. #2904
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by SD View Post
    Not sure why I need an explanation, it is surely enough to know that X happens without knowing the precise mechanism.
    Nah bro, you don't get off that easily.

    You need to explain your statement. I quoted you and asked about it after you posted your theory on the mechanism. Doesn't make sense to me. Please explain it.

  5. #2905
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Living in California, it's a bit weird to hear about state versus local in New England. My county is four times the size of Rhode Island.

  6. #2906
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Living in California, it's a bit weird to hear about state versus local in New England. My county is four times the size of Rhode Island.
    The guys up the road are trying to tell the people down the street how to live their lives!

  7. #2907
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    In fairness, they've held a grudge since one of their ancestors pranked another on the Mayflower.

  8. #2908
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    It's a different world from SoCal, that's for sure.

    I'm not a New England native, so there's still some things about living here that I don't get. Number one is the prevalence of the "townie", i.e. someone who chooses to spend their life in the same town they grew up in, often the same neighborhood, and limit themselves to a very small circle of friends, often the same friends they had through their school years. But on the flip side, I like the fact that it's not a sea of sameness. Many New England towns have retained their individual character, history, and charm. You don't need to go very far at all to enjoy completely different culture, scenery, recreation, etc.

  9. #2909
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    I imagine the former does a lot to feed into the latter.

  10. #2910
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Because of coronavirus, I did something I thought I'd never do.

    I cut my own hair.

    To my credit, it actually came out look like a haircut.

    To my detriment, I look sorta like Richard Spencer now.

  11. #2911
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Is looking like Richard Spencer an improvement?

    YES......................................NO
    Good jerb!............................WTF, dude!?

  12. #2912
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I cut it back a little bit. Now it looks like a high and tight with pretentions.

  13. #2913
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by SD View Post
    And I think it's dangerous to assume that cardiovascular injury is a result of infection rather than a risk factor for it.
    Still waiting on further explanation of this.

    Please be so kind.

  14. #2914
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Because of coronavirus, I did something I thought I'd never do.

    I cut my own hair.
    I also did something I never thought I would do. Again. For the first time in 37 years my hair is past my ears and touching my back. I'm going hippy. I was hoping for Witcher but it is more Steve Perry after a hard night.

  15. #2915
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I hadn't had a haircut in 4 months. That's the longest I've gone without getting one since I was about 12.

    My hair's thinned just enough on top so that it doesn't look like it's one contiguous lump of hair anymore. It fluffs out on the sides, and on the top separately now.

  16. #2916
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    TEST EVERYONE

  17. #2917
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    Ya know, it's gotten to the point where I almost dread reading the news in the morning. I mean, face it; if it's not Trump making more threats, demands, outrageously false statements or outright lies, it's stupid people doing stupid things that are guaranteed to increase the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in this country. This morning has proven to be no exception.

    '"Screw COVID’: 250,000 Bikers to Defy Common Sense for Nine Days at Sturgis Rally

    Friday is the official start of the 80th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, where 250,000 people are expected to gather in the South Dakota town of that name for nine days of defying proven precautions against the spread of COVID-19.

    “Nobody is social distancing and none of them are wearing masks,” local psychologist Michael Fellner told The Daily Beast. “None.”'


    So, it wasn't enough for that Trump-sucking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to push for all SD schools to re-open on schedule and fuck making the kids & staff wear masks and social distancing is a Liberal hoax, she's all on board for this rally because omg we all need that revenue (the mayor of Sturgis and its city council never even considered cancelling the rally, either). Omg is right. Idiots from all over the country are attending this rally, which means that they'll be taking the virus home with them when they leave. So it's not just South Dakota residents that need to worry, it's the whole fucking country. And there'll probably be a lot more than 250,000 attending; last year over 500,000 people attended. Great. Just fucking great.

    Over 4 million of us have contracted this damned virus so far and over 158,000 of us have died because of it, yet you have totally brain-dead morons saying 'Fuck COVID, I want my Sturgis t-shirt!'. Hell, just yesterday I saw a Harley stop at the intersection by my house and the rider had a sign on the back of his bike stating 'Sturgis bound'. How the fuck do we deal with ignoramuses like those people attending the rally in Sturgis?? Seriously, I'm losing faith in humanity by leaps and bounds and it sucks.

    I have to admit to giving in to my darker side lately; I found myself saying 'Good. Let Mother Nature its course; the idiots will be weeded out and that'll be fewer fucking morons we have to deal with'. Then my better angels rear their little heads and remind me that COVID-19 doesn't just attack idiots and morons, it attacks innocent people and children, too. I guess Phase II of this epidemic is about to get a substantial boost. Or have we already morphed into Phase III? *smh*

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/screw-cov...083423022.html

  18. #2918
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    She's had the luxury of living in virus denial because her state has been minimally impacted, with only 141 deaths and no second wave so far. Logic would say, keep doing what you're doing and don't take any big risks. But the Black Hills region got away with taking a small risk by hosting the President at Mt. Rushmore, with a limited audience of 7500. Like most cities who hosted large BLM protests, there was no surge in cases after Mt. Rushmore. So they were emboldened to take a bigger risk, at least an order of magnitude bigger, not just because of the crowd size but because they're pulling in people from all over the country.

    And you know what, I think they are likely to get away with it for a few reasons. First, the vast majority of activity is outdoors. Second, people are coming in from all over and departing again, so there could be massive spread of the virus through the crowds that you won't see in anyone's statistics because the resulting cases are spread all over the country. Finally, I doubt they will draw anywhere near 250k attendance. I'll bet there's no official attendance count this year, because the real numbers will go against the desired narrative.

    That's been the case with the large events around here this year. We just held our summer NASCAR race. This year, ticketing was all digital, masks were required unless you were in your seat, concessions wouldn't take cash, seating was assigned to force people to spread out, tailgating was restricted, and most side-events were cancelled. They didn't publicly state attendance figures this year, but instead of the usual packed house, the stands were at most 1/10 full.

    We have our own bike week here in NH. At one point in the late 90s/early 00s it was as big as Sturgis was and more unruly. But over the years the crowds have gotten older, smaller, and saner and law enforcement has started to be a little over the top. So the event has really shrunk. Attendance last year was estimated at 250k. This year, because of COVID-19, they postponed it from the traditional Father's Day dates in June to the end of August. A couple weeks ago, they made the decision to go ahead with the event, albeit not like before. No beer tents. No music festival. There won't be vendors lining the streets, instead there will be charity booths, hand washing stations, and some roaming disinfecting crews. More than half of the events are cancelled. I'll be surprised if we see 50k this year. I'm a motorcycle rider and I often like to go to see the vintage motorcycle races, but I won't be going this year. I don't know why we're going ahead with it, it won't generate revenue like usual and it risks an outbreak.

  19. #2919
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Well, school re-opening is off to a great start. Some of you might have seen this photo on the news, because the girl who took the photo got suspended for it:



    Well, it turns out that's far from the worst of it. The same school had an outbreak on its football team right before school started. And a staff member attended planning meetings the week before school started while she was symptomatic. Source: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...aulding-county

    A second school district in the Atlanta area has gone back to remote-only after more than 90 staff members were forced to quarantine.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/07/us/ba...-19/index.html

    And the largest school system in the Atlanta area has 263 staff on quarantine and they're planning to bring back the kids in a couple weeks:
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/07/us/ge...ool/index.html

    How many other places are going to follow Georgia's lead and pack the schools while they're still in the middle of a second wave? This is going to be nuts.

  20. #2920
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    There are geniuses behind all this, no doubt.

  21. #2921
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: The Land of Make Believe
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Over here, in the states hardest hit by the second wave
    There is no second wave in the USA. The first wave of the virus is simply spreading into populations that haven't been hit yet.

    A second wave would be if a region that completed its first wave (eg New York) suddenly started seeing soaring cases. I don't think that will happen, but I've been wrong before (once when I was 9 years old, I think).

  22. #2922
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by SD View Post
    There is no second wave in the USA. The first wave of the virus is simply spreading into populations that haven't been hit yet.

    A second wave would be if a region that completed its first wave (eg New York) suddenly started seeing soaring cases. I don't think that will happen, but I've been wrong before (once when I was 9 years old, I think).
    You continue to prove that you know nothing and can't be bothered to check your claims. There are many states whose curve of daily new cases reached a first peak (typically in April), died down, and then rose again: Illinois, Lousiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Indiana, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont, and the USVI. Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, New Hampshire look to be up next.

  23. #2923
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: The Land of Make Believe
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    You continue to prove that you know nothing and can't be bothered to check your claims. There are many states whose curve of daily new cases reached a first peak (typically in April), died down, and then rose again: Illinois, Lousiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Indiana, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont, and the USVI. Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, New Hampshire look to be up next.
    I think it's you that is proving a lack of elementary knowledge in this arena. Those aren't second waves, they're delayed first waves. Which is why you won't find a single reputable source that says the US is currently experiencing a second wave.

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-cases-usa

    https://theconversation.com/the-us-i...r-ended-141032

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/coro...the-first.html

    • The rise in coronavirus cases seen in about half a dozen states across the U.S. isn’t the feared “second wave” — it’s still the first, scientists and infectious disease specialists say.
    • To be defined as a second wave the virus would need to retreat and reappear, or a new variant would have to emerge, said Columbia University’s Ian Lipkin. “The recent increase in cases does not reflect either.”
    • States such as Arizona and Texas “never really got rid of the first wave,” former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.
    Last edited by SD; 7th Aug 2020 at 20:41.

  24. #2924
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    OK, so you didn't look at any numbers, did you? The quote you posted was talking about states (e.g. Texas and Arizona) that are still seeing their first wave. But all of the states I mentioned saw early peaks, then suppressed the virus for a while, and now they're approaching a second peak.

    Here's Texas, still in a delayed first wave:


    Here's Arizona, still in a delayed first wave:


    Here's Louisiana, second wave:


    Here's Hawaii, second wave:


    Here's Montana, second wave:


    Finally, here's Illinois. This is an example where the virus wasn't fully suppressed at the tail end of the first wave before the second wave started. But by dictionary definition, that's two waves. Many states look like this:

  25. #2925
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by SD View Post
    I've been wrong before (once when I was 9 years old, I think).
    Oh very drole SD.

    And yet here we are, still awaiting your explanation of this.

    Quote Originally Posted by SD View Post
    I think it's dangerous to assume that cardiovascular injury is a result of infection rather than a risk factor for it.
    If you would be so kind Mr "Haven't been wrong since I was 9"...

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