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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #276
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    It was Okinawa-style soba with "spare rib". Yeah it was pretty good. I wasn't really food poisoned, I just felt a little nausea the next day, and I'm just assuming it was that place because a few of the others also felt off (but not all of them). Could have also just been a coincidence.

  2. #277
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.

  3. #278
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    First people started panic buying, now they are panic refunding. Only, it's buyers remorse... Because no refunds.


  4. #279
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    I work part-time in a retail store and I'm disgusted by the amount of hoarding going on. Otherwise sensible people are showing up at our checkout registers with two or even three shopping carts overloaded with cases of water, hand sanitizer, toilet paper and cleaning supplies. Afaic, those people are deplorably selfish and I wish our store would establish an anti-hoarding policy (like, only two cases of water per customer, etc.). I've had my ass chewed out by other irate customers, like one young woman who was pissed off because our store was out of baby wipes and her 6 month old baby had diarrhea, or because all one little old lady wanted was one fucking 12 pack of bottled water so she could take her meds (she said her tap water was too 'dirty' to drink). Yep, I'm getting yelled and cursed at like it's all MY fault, while having to watch those with money to burn hoard everything from water to baby wipes, ffs. Omg, I am SO regretting my decision to get a part-time job in retail rather than go back to the office full-time. *smh*

  5. #280
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Here is our fucktard of a prime-minister.

    He held a press conference to tell the nation they're not really doing anything.
    Only advice given: don't shake hands anymore. and don't touch each other anyway.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-eu...ands-then-does

    Then goes on to shake hands with the other guy on the podium.
    When people alert him to the fact that he just shook someone's hand 10 seconds after telling us to not shake hands, he grabs the man by the arm, then by the neck. Touches him for 5 seconds.

    I didn't vote for him.

    Edit: Trump isn't a lot smarter.

    ==
    On a more serious note. I found this on YouTube. It's voice-messages (send via WhatApp) between Italian medici. I have no idea if it's real or a hoax. It's so long, that I think it's not a hoax. Maybe lowenz can tell more.


    ==
    Personal update: yesterday we had the first infected in my village. Today we have 3 infected. Total infections in NL went up by 121 today (largest increase so far), to 503. With 5 deaths.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 11th Mar 2020 at 10:17.

  6. #281
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.
    Check out this map, it includes recovered cases:
    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

    The death rate is going up for the reasons you mentioned. The early estimates were 2%. The WHO estimate I saw yesterday was 3.4%. Just going by the current WHO case count, it's 3.6% (4290/118162).

    Probably the best estimate comes from China, where the rate of new infections has slowed to a trickle.

    Current stats from China:
    80967 confirmed cases
    61653 recovered
    3162 deaths

    The lower bound assuming no further deaths is 3162/80967 = 3.9%
    A better estimate is probably 3162/(61653+3162) = 4.9%

    Iran is reporting a large number of recovered cases and the infection rate seems to be slowing there. Their numbers are 9000 total, 2959 recovered, and 354 deaths. So the death rate there could end up around 10%. It's too early to say anything about Europe, North America, or the rest of the world.

    A lot depends on whether hospitals can keep up with the case load. In places where the health care system is overloaded and the seriously ill can't get the best available treatment, the death rate will be higher. In places with a relatively small number of isolated cases (usually travel related), the death rate will be lower. So I suspect Italy will have some bad numbers and Singapore will have good numbers.

  7. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    You mean by standards of food that gives you food poisoning?
    Ever been to an authentic Mexican restaurant? Good shit but you'll pay the price later.

  8. #283
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...demic-who-says
    Coronavirus: COVID-19 Is Now Officially A Pandemic, WHO Says

  9. #284
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    ==
    On a more serious note. I found this on YouTube. It's voice-messages (send via WhatApp) between Italian medici. I have no idea if it's real or a hoax. It's so long, that I think it's not a hoax. Maybe lowenz can tell more.
    .
    Hoax but realistic for 40 yo and up.
    Not for 20 yo.

  10. #285
    This is the "basics" from the very top of the CDC's FAQ on the coronavirus:



    This is what the CDC thinks is most important to discuss about the situation.

  11. #286
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvester View Post
    Here in the Netherlands, in one of our 12 provinces, called Noord-Brabant, the infection rate is the highest. In that province, the government asks you to stay at home even with mild health complaints (like you could also just have a cold, but stay home just to be on the safe side). People are asked to work from their homes if their job allows it.
    Good idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    buddy with family in Spain says they are looking to lock up the country as well.
    Good idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    I wonder, what is the real death rate for the infection?

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...beeeee1b9125cd

    Reports 118K cases with 4K deaths - this gives a lower bound of over 3%. However, how many of thous cases are still open. Ie. not yet cured - still hospitalized (trouble cases) or at home (milder or just early stage cases). So, the naive and rounded down 3% sounds way off. Are there some stats for cured?

    I hope this shit does not mutate to something worse.
    Probably less that 1% in reality. Based of S Korean data where they have done widespread testing.


    Italy's death rate, and especially that stratification, is now not pool-able with other data. The steps taken because of lack of capacity mean that many people will reach a treatment ceiling (artificial ventilation) based on X criteria. Ordinarily a high proportion of these people will live, if ventilated. Without, it's a dice roll and therefore not reflective of what we'd see with capacity.

    This is a grim as it gets, outside sci-fi.

  12. #287
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    PS. The USA is in serious trouble. It's not been taken seriously, the politics and economics of it there are going to obfuscate any attempts to be sensible. Sadly. Good luck guys.

  13. #288
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Italy's death rate, and especially that stratification, is now not pool-able with other data. The steps taken because of lack of capacity mean that many people will reach a treatment ceiling (artificial ventilation) based on X criteria. Ordinarily a high proportion of these people will live, if ventilated. Without, it's a dice roll and therefore not reflective of what we'd see with capacity.

    This is a grim as it gets, outside sci-fi.
    Yes.
    We are there NOW.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usual_...tial_pneumonia

  14. #289
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    466-440+135 (death / ex ICU)=161 new ICUs patients

    Man, 135 death in 1 day for the same shit.....(they of course pull the plug in ICU).


    560-466+149 (death / ex ICU)=243 new ICUs patients

    It's the end..........

  15. #290
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Listen to this.

    Like many sports-leagues around the world, the NBA (USA basketball) is trying to find a way to deal with the corona-virus. Continue games or not ? With or without spectators ? You know the drill. Nothing decided yet. Nothing changed yet. Games continue as planned.

    Frenchmen Rudy Gobert, center of the Utah Jazz, thinks it's all a load of crock. People are overreacting. It's just the flue. Stop panicking. To make a point, at a post-game media-meeting, Rudy intentionally frobs all microphones. "See, you cowards, nothing to worry about".
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qxtxIVtOZE

    Today the Utah Jazz was supposed to play in Oklahoma City against the OKC Thunder.
    5 Minutes before tip-off, it gets announced the game will be postponed.
    Two players of the Utah Jazz were rumored to have flu symptoms.
    One hour later, it is confirmed that Rudy Gobert has tested positive for the Corona-virus.

    I'm not kidding.

    Yet another hour later, the NBA announced that all games, the whole season is postponed.
    Nobody has any idea what will happen next.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 11th Mar 2020 at 22:09.

  16. #291
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Back from Rockmart again. Still seems normal down near Atlanta.

    Still, I'm gonna spend the next 9 or so days wondering, and I'm probably gonna hole up at the house for a good bit over the next two weeks or so.

  17. #292
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    President Donald Trump's Address to the Nation on the Coronavirus Pandemic


  18. #293
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    PS. The USA is in serious trouble. It's not been taken seriously, the politics and economics of it there are going to obfuscate any attempts to be sensible. Sadly. Good luck guys.
    And even though our response has been quick, universal and science based (thanks universal healthcare) Canada faces a huge disease threat from south of the border (thanks privatised sickness industry).

  19. #294
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Some good moves by the US government. Countries with low rates / no cases really should be closing their borders full stop. That's the only effective way to prevent it getting in. I get that the politicians only care about the $$$, but for the health of citizens that's the best way to go.

  20. #295
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's a good move, though a little late in the game by this point.

  21. #296
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?

  22. #297
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Sobering article in the NYTimes, ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response.
    The numbers you see reported are only as accurate as the testing getting done.

  23. #298
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    I don't know about the virus, but it sure looks like they are working overtime to contain any criticism and anything that makes the situation look bad.

    https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf681ba785faf269

    NEW YORK (AP) — The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan. Trump administration officials have since suggested certain people should consider not traveling, but have stopped short of the stronger guidance sought by the CDC.
    [...]
    https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...navirus-2020-3

    Trump said he wants to keep Grand Princess cruise passengers on the ship so that US coronavirus numbers don't 'double.' That strategy failed in Japan.

    * The Grand Princess cruise ship is sitting off the coast of San Francisco, waiting for the CDC's next instructions after 21 passengers and crew tested positive for the new coronavirus.
    * President Trump said Friday that despite what experts tell him, he wants to keep passengers and crew on the ship so that coronavirus cases in the US don't "double."
    * One passenger responded: "He can come on board if he wants and serve us our food and bring me my towel."
    * Japan kept thousands of people onboard the Diamond Princess, another cruise ship from the same company, in a failed quarantine that may have helped the virus spread.
    [...]

  24. #299
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?
    Where is this actually happening, with regards to entering the U.S.?

  25. #300
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    I haven't paid a lot of attention to the US, but you can't just "close down" tens of thousands of miles of borders and pretend everything's okay:

    https://euobserver.com/social/147576

    EU experts said on Thursday (27 February) that refusing entry to an EU country of people with coronavirus symptoms would be counter-productive and "ineffective" to prevent the spread of the virus.

    "Refusal of entry is not considered an appropriate preventive measure as the virus would spread further" since those potential patients would keep moving in the region without being treated, EU sources said.

    Instead, the experts advised having "systematic" checks for all those arriving, ensuring a coordinated approach between border guards and national authorities, as well as a real-time exchange of information.

    [...]
    https://theintercept.com/2020/03/05/...osing-borders/

    While he lacks expertise in any relevant field, President Donald Trump has never shied away from making pronouncements about fighting infectious diseases. “KEEP THEM OUT OF HERE!” Trump tweet-bellowed about American health care workers in West Africa who were infected with the Ebola virus in 2015, calling for harsh border controls to bar travelers from any “EBOLA infected countries.”

    As the world grapples with the spread of a new coronavirus known as Covid-19, Trump still seems to hold similar beliefs on borders. He flirted in the past week with suggestions for border restrictions that would probably do more harm than good. But experts warn that some draconian public health interventions — such as completely closing borders — can quickly become counterproductive. Once a disease has taken hold inside a country, the best options are domestic interventions by state and local public health authorities with ample support from the federal level.

    “I hope President Trump is not thinking about shutting down the borders completely, because then you really do have a situation in which we can’t help other nations and the disease will nonetheless be here,” said Amy Fairchild, an ethicist, public health historian, and dean of the Ohio State University College of Public Health. “We will only end up creating vulnerable, underserved populations in this country, and we’ll exacerbate the challenges of providing aid to African and Asian countries that have more fragile health care systems.”
    [...]
    Also, if you create state of fear and paranoia where people feel like they have to hide their symptoms and are afraid to seek testing, it does nothing to prevent the spread of the virus.
    Last edited by Starker; 12th Mar 2020 at 02:51.

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