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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #301
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?
    You got a point.....

  2. #302
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2005
    Location: Netherlands
    I just read this article that's specifically about the Dutch government not taking the problem seriously enough. And as it's become clear, the problem seems to be that people with mild health complaints (or even no complaints at all) think it's nothing and just go around meeting people and spreading the virus.

    For a couple of days now, I'm experiencing minor health issues. A headache, a stuffy nose, a little bit of a sore throat, maybe a mild increase in body temperature (I'd check but my thermometer has an empty battery), that's it. Normally I'd just go about my business as usual with complaints like that, I wouldn't change anything about my daily routine. But right now, I don't want to take any chances. I've asked my direct supervisor and the CEO of my company if I could work from home at least until the weekend, and then see how I feel Monday. They thought it was a good idea, just to be on the safe side. So I'm posting this from my work laptop at home. I'm going outside as little as possible until I feel better, as I said normally I wouldn't let this bother me but right now things are different. Thankfully working from home is not a problem with my job. But the economy is going to be severely impacted by, among other things, the fact that people will have to stay home and self-quarantine (or be admitted to the hospital in more severe cases) whose jobs cannot be done from home.

  3. #303
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...demic-who-says
    Coronavirus: COVID-19 Is Now Officially A Pandemic, WHO Says
    That speech is worth quoting in full:

    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-11-march-2020

    Good afternoon.

    In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold, and the number of affected countries has tripled.

    There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, and 4,291 people have lost their lives.

    Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.

    In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries climb even higher.

    WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.

    We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.

    Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death.

    Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this virus. It doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do.

    We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. This is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus.

    And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled, at the same time.

    WHO has been in full response mode since we were notified of the first cases.

    And we have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.

    We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear.

    ===

    As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full story.

    Of the 118,000 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those – China and the Republic of Korea - have significantly declining epidemics.

    81 countries have not reported any cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less.

    We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.

    If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission.

    Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this virus.

    Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled.

    The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large clusters or community transmission is not whether they can do the same – it’s whether they will.

    Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity.

    Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources.

    Some countries are struggling with a lack of resolve.

    We are grateful for the measures being taken in Iran, Italy and the Republic of Korea to slow the virus and control their epidemics.

    We know that these measures are taking a heavy toll on societies and economies, just as they did in China.

    All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimizing economic and social disruption, and respecting human rights.

    WHO’s mandate is public health. But we’re working with many partners across all sectors to mitigate the social and economic consequences of this pandemic.

    This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual must be involved in the fight.

    I have said from the beginning that countries must take a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach, built around a comprehensive strategy to prevent infections, save lives and minimize impact.

    Let me summarize it in four key areas.

    First, prepare and be ready.

    Second, detect, protect and treat.

    Third, reduce transmission.

    Fourth, innovate and learn.

    I remind all countries that we are calling on you to activate and scale up your emergency response mechanisms;

    Communicate with your people about the risks and how they can protect themselves – this is everybody’s business;

    Find, isolate, test and treat every case and trace every contact;

    Ready your hospitals;

    Protect and train your health workers.

    And let’s all look out for each other, because we need each other.

    ===

    There’s been so much attention on one word.

    Let me give you some other words that matter much more, and that are much more actionable.

    Prevention.

    Preparedness.

    Public health.

    Political leadership.

    And most of all, people.

    We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable.

    I thank you.

  4. #304
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2001
    Location: Switzerland
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvester View Post
    But the economy is going to be severely impacted by, among other things, the fact that people will have to stay home and self-quarantine (or be admitted to the hospital in more severe cases) whose jobs cannot be done from home.
    I think that in the countries where being ill can easily ruin you financially people will be likely to hide their symptoms and work anyway, and in turn this will make infection rates considerably worse. So many people simply can't afford to be sick. I fear for these countries.

  5. #305
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Probably less that 1% in reality. Based of S Korean data where they have done widespread testing.
    I don't know how you can conclude that from S Korean data when 95% of their 7869 reported cases are still active. So far they've reported 66 deaths and 333 recovered, i.e. 16.5% death rate among cases resolved so far. That ratio can be expected to improve over time if you assume they are being a bit cautious about declaring a patient recovered. But of the 7470 active cases, 99.8% of them would have to survive in order to make the death rate 1%, and that's very, very unlikely to happen.

  6. #306
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    The US medical system in a nutshell:

    https://thecity.nyc/2020/03/the-cost...-10k-bill.html

    First Brooklyn public school teacher Erin McCarthy began experiencing potential coronavirus symptoms after returning from Italy.

    Then a doctor — wearing a hazmat suit — told her she couldn’t be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria at the time.

    But that wasn’t her last shock: She recently got a bill saying her fruitless March 2 ER visit cost $10,382.96.

    “And I wasn’t even tested,” McCarthy said.

    McCarthy is lucky: She has insurance coverage and will only have to cough up a $75 co-pay for her visit to The NYU Langone Health–Cobble Hill emergency department. Her insurance company will pay a negotiated-down rate.

    “But imagine if I didn’t have insurance,” McCarthy said, recounting a time when she was uninsured and wound up paying off an ambulance bill for years after she needed transport following a fall.

    [...]

    After the city health commissioner’s order changing the protocol for testing was issued March 5, McCarthy was able to get an actual test. The results turned up negative for coronavirus.

    As of Tuesday, she had yet to receive a bill for that test, which took place at New York-Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital in Park Slope. She said the hospital did not request her insurance information, so she doesn’t expect she’ll be getting a bill.
    [...]

  7. #307
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    This is a problem many of us are facing here in the U.S.:

    'Cough? Fever? Coronavirus symptoms are not enough, Americans find, as strict rules limit who gets tested.

    McNamara is a field operations manager at Spectrum and drives for Uber on weekends, so he was concerned about showing up to work sick and possibly infecting others. After going to Adirondack Urgent Care in Queensbury, N.Y., he tested negative for seasonal influenza and was told he had an unknown virus before being sent home.

    McNamara wondered why he hadn’t been tested for coronavirus himself and decided to follow up with the urgent care unit. “They said, ‘Well, we didn’t test you because, No. 1, we don’t test for it here. You’d have to go somewhere else,’” McNamara recounted. “‘But we didn’t recommend any testing because you did not meet the CDC’s criteria of having traveled outside the country to a known nation or place that has it, and you also have not been in contact with anybody who has it." Still concerned, McNamara said he followed up with the Warren County Health Services. But they also told him he did not meet the CDC’s criteria for testing.'


    https://news.yahoo.com/cough-fever-n...184704103.html

    There's also the deplorable fact that there just aren't enough testing kits available here in the U.S., either; in spite of what the Great Orange One has said.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...tells-n1151751

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/trum...ronavirus.html

  8. #308
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    What matters is what happens after it's spread throughout. If things recover, and gradually improve from there then awesome. Good things to look forward to.

    Over here in Aus, our PM addressed the nation at 7pm:



    Bit by bit it's popping up in more places in my state (Victoria). Very high likelihood of all schools and universities closing, but still offering online options. My workplace at Monash Uni, has a plan in place already which gives me some peace of mind on the income end. If/when the closures take place, all my work will continue but just from home via Zoom.

    I'm sure that this will all blow over in time, and those of us not in the 70+ age range should be fine.

  9. #309
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    At 1:12: "Our plan has 3 goals 1) Protect, 2) Secure, 3) Set Australia up to bounce back stronger".

    For a moment I thought he was gonna say: "1) Secure, 2) Contain, 3) Protect".
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 12th Mar 2020 at 10:22.

  10. #310
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Back from Rockmart again. Still seems normal down near Atlanta.

    Still, I'm gonna spend the next 9 or so days wondering, and I'm probably gonna hole up at the house for a good bit over the next two weeks or so.
    stop fucking lying, this is the CDC in Atlanta
    (Meme removed)

    there is a cure.
    (Meme removed)

    ALL the kids who ate tide pods are safe................

    funnies aside, looks like global economies are going to take a shit, we are going to be hurt for a while.

  11. #311
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvester View Post
    I just read this article that's specifically about the Dutch government not taking the problem seriously enough. And as it's become clear, the problem seems to be that people with mild health complaints (or even no complaints at all) think it's nothing and just go around meeting people and spreading the virus.

    For a couple of days now, I'm experiencing minor health issues. A headache, a stuffy nose, a little bit of a sore throat, maybe a mild increase in body temperature (I'd check but my thermometer has an empty battery), that's it. Normally I'd just go about my business as usual with complaints like that, I wouldn't change anything about my daily routine. But right now, I don't want to take any chances. I've asked my direct supervisor and the CEO of my company if I could work from home at least until the weekend, and then see how I feel Monday. They thought it was a good idea, just to be on the safe side. So I'm posting this from my work laptop at home. I'm going outside as little as possible until I feel better, as I said normally I wouldn't let this bother me but right now things are different. Thankfully working from home is not a problem with my job. But the economy is going to be severely impacted by, among other things, the fact that people will have to stay home and self-quarantine (or be admitted to the hospital in more severe cases) whose jobs cannot be done from home.
    Good Move.
    You're a responsible guy, thanks!

    See? Isn't really that hard.....

    Maybe I can reassure you a bit: SARS2 doesn't touch the nose.

  12. #312
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    stop fucking lying, this is the CDC in Atlanta
    That's the way it always is down there.

  13. #313
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Anyway, about now would be the time to start leaving random audiologs all around the place.

  14. #314
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Day 21: Geez, I'm real glad I bought that pizza yesterday. Anyway, the train station is on fire, and this one guy looted the whole mall. I still think it's all much ado over nothing.

  15. #315
    So pardon my naivete, but where will all of this eventually end, or at the very least, get under control? Only once a vaccine is developed? Guess I'm just not sure how the cycle works. It seems like other viruses like the flu, common cold, smallpox, measles, etc, are just a part of everyday life now (or were), but I'm sure at one point in history they were very scary too.

    I'm not trying to diminish what is going on, like people who claims "it's just like the flu!" I just flew through Seattle within the past week and trust me, I was Clorox Wiping and hand sanitizing everything in sight.

  16. #316
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    We haven't seen the real danger scenario yet.
    When many people get infected, and many people get ill and need hospitalization.
    And the hospitals can not keep up. And there aren't enough beds, medical personnel and equipment.
    Then the risk of dying, even when you are not one of the worst cases, goes up.

    Remember, pneumonia was a deadly disease before we got antibiotics.
    Antibiotics work when a pneumonia is caused by a bacteria or fungus.
    They don't work when a pneumonia is caused by a virus.


    I don't think we'll get it under control (soon) (*).

    Lockdown seems the only way to try and control the outbreak today.
    Governments wait too long to go into lockdown.
    Lockdown itself isn't cheap.
    There's not enough test kits (worldwide).
    It's been told people are contagious when they have no symptoms. Not sure if this is true (but I believe it probably is).
    Some young people don't give a fuck. If they catch it, they keep spreading it.
    There is no medicine to cure it. There is no vaccine to prevent it.

    One way this can go:
    half the world population catches the virus. nobody knows why, but the other half is kinda immune. or lucky.
    a few percent (0.5% - 5%) of people die.
    covid-19 stays around, but the world learns to live with it. most people will have had it, or are kinda immune.

    The other way this can go (*):
    spring is coming. the spread of the virus slows down. at least until october.
    in the mean time, fewer people get ill, fewer people die, hospitals can keep up.
    these extra 6 months (before october) give us time to find a cure or a vaccine, or some means to keep the spread under control.

    If anyone can see another scenario, I'm very interested to hear it.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 12th Mar 2020 at 12:19.

  17. #317
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2001
    Location: Somewhere
    This is going to hit musicians hard, a lot of my friends earn their living from live performances, if they dont gig they dont get paid. In fact the whole hospitality industry is going to be in big trouble, if Italy is an example of what will happen in most countries, i.e bars clubs and other venues being closed down.

  18. #318
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    So pardon my naivete, but where will all of this eventually end, or at the very least, get under control? Only once a vaccine is developed? Guess I'm just not sure how the cycle works. It seems like other viruses like the flu, common cold, smallpox, measles, etc, are just a part of everyday life now (or were), but I'm sure at one point in history they were very scary too.
    It may not even be that. The last Coronavirus outbreak was the SARS epidemic 16 years ago, and there's currently no evidence that it mutates as quickly and regularly as the flu. Considering what we know, there's no reason to assume its presence is the new normal. It's more likely we won't see it again for another 15 years.

  19. #319
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    like people who claims "it's just like the flu!"
    With no vaccine
    With the help of some handsome pathogenic bacteria with antibiotic resistance
    With your lung and kidney already stressed

    Now the epidemiological and clinical equation it's just like the flu! is correct

  20. #320
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    We haven't seen the real danger scenario yet.
    When many people get infected, and many people get ill and need hospitalization.
    And the hospitals can not keep up. And there aren't enough beds, medical personnel and equipment.
    Then the risk of dying, even when you are not one of the worst cases, goes up.

    Remember, pneumonia was a deadly disease before we got antibiotics.
    Antibiotics work when a pneumonia is caused by a bacteria or fungus.
    They don't work when a pneumonia is caused by a virus.


    I don't think we'll get it under control (soon) (*).

    Lockdown seems the only way to try and control the outbreak today.
    Governments wait too long to go into lockdown.
    Lockdown itself isn't cheap.
    There's not enough test kits (worldwide).
    It's been told people are contagious when they have no symptoms. Not sure if this is true (but I believe it probably is).
    Some young people don't give a fuck. If they catch it, they keep spreading it.
    There is no medicine to cure it. There is no vaccine to prevent it.

    One way this can go:
    half the world population catches the virus. nobody knows why, but the other half is kinda immune. or lucky.
    a few percent (0.5% - 5%) of people die.
    covid-19 stays around, but the world learns to live with it. most people will have had it, or are kinda immune.

    The other way this can go (*):
    spring is coming. the spread of the virus slows down. at least until october.
    in the mean time, fewer people get ill, fewer people die, hospitals can keep up.
    these extra 6 months (before october) give us time to find a cure or a vaccine, or some means to keep the spread under control.

    If anyone can see another scenario, I'm very interested to hear it.
    (Meme removed)

  21. #321
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    OMG TRIGGERED!

    Meanwhile, we can't even get test kits out, and we'd have to triage patients too if we end up getting Italy level swamped.

  22. #322
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    (Meme removed)

    3.4% deaths, even if you are infected? why are people panicking now?

  23. #323
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    US is only 1-3 weeks behind Italy. Just like Italy was a few weeks behind China. Yanks can make jokes about Italy and other European countries. I agree, they could have handled the situation better. Especially my own country is doing piss-poor. I'm ashamed. But don't think the US is gonna be different.

    The only difference will be this:
    Italy -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the elderly"
    USA -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the middle-class and poor"

  24. #324
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    So pardon my naivete, but where will all of this eventually end, or at the very least, get under control? Only once a vaccine is developed? Guess I'm just not sure how the cycle works. It seems like other viruses like the flu, common cold, smallpox, measles, etc, are just a part of everyday life now (or were), but I'm sure at one point in history they were very scary too.
    Nobody knows for sure.

    The 1918 flu pandemic took about a year to fade away, with the worst of it occurring within about a 6 month period. SARS was gone in 6 months, but the total number of SARS cases was only around 8000 and COVID-19 is spreading at a much faster rate. So I *hope* we'll be over the hump by the end of summer, but it's just a hope.

    A lot depends on our response. If we're able to slow down the transmission rate to be in the range of the seasonal flu, the virus will spread more slowly and may take a long time to get rid of, but it will be easier to manage and less deadly. If we can reduce R0 < 1, the virus fades away. On the other hand, if R0 stays up in the range of norovirus or gets worse, it will spread through the world quickly enough to overwhelm our health care systems and kills lots of people and cause lots of mayhem, but the eventual end will come sooner.

  25. #325
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    US is only 1-3 weeks behind Italy. Just like Italy was a few weeks behind China. Yanks can make jokes about Italy and other European countries. I agree, they could have handled the situation better. Especially my own country is doing piss-poor. I'm ashamed. But don't think the US is gonna be different.

    The only difference will be this:
    Italy -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the elderly"
    USA -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the middle-class and poor"
    the US is worse based on the level of stupid that we engage in, everyone is running like a chicken with their heads cut off over a virus that kills 3.4% or so of those infected, H1N1 was WORSE and the media did NOT spread the bullshit they are now.

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