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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #326
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    It's not only about the death-rate. It's also about how fast/easy it spreads. How people are contagious even before they show symptoms. 3% Might not seem high. But 3% combined with an uncontrollable spread is serious business.

    Look at China. They determined that the only way to contain the virus was locking down Wuhan and a few other cities.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns
    They locked down a bunch of cities, 57 MILLION people in total.
    Do you think the Chinese did that "just because they are friggin libtards" ?
    The Chinese (government) doesn't give a fuck about the individual. Chinese culture has always been that the benefit of the many outweigh the benefit of the individual (exaggerated maybe a bit). They wouldn't care if a few thousand elderly would die. Their economy is more important. And still they saw it necessary to lock-down 57 million people (with all the economic consequences of that).

    And guess what. Wuhan was locked down on January 23rd. Today it is March 12th. 49 Days later. And those cities are still in lock-down.

    Is this the H1N1 outbreak you're talking about ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
    It is estimated that 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million–1.4 billion people contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%.
    0.01%-0.08%. That's basically the same as the regular flu (0.05%-0.1%).

    I'm not one to panic easily. I never even was aware of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. I was too busy playing WoW back then. As I've written here before, the world is not coming to an end. And we have to see in the end how many people died. But the scary thing is that we don't know how to cure it. And we can't prevent it. And we don't really know how long people are carrying the virus after they seem "cured". Both China and Italy could not find a way to deal with this, except one of the most extreme measures thinkable.

    But I should stop explaining this to you.
    Within 1-2 weeks, Americans will see for themselves how fast and easy the virus spreads.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 12th Mar 2020 at 14:51.

  2. #327
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven


    605-560+127 (death / ex ICU)=172 new ICUs patients

    (as always this is Lombardy ONLY!)
    Last edited by lowenz; 12th Mar 2020 at 15:57.

  3. #328
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The Chinese (government) doesn't give a fuck about the individual. Chinese culture has always been that the benefit of the many outweigh the benefit of the individual (exaggerated maybe a bit). They wouldn't care if a few thousand elderly would die. Their economy is more important. And still they saw it necessary to lock-down 57 million people (with all the economic consequences of that).

    And guess what. Wuhan was locked down on January 23rd. Today it is March 12th. 49 Days later. And those cities are still in lock-down.
    And this is another valid point.

    I suggest you all this perfect lecture:



    (Man, this is the perfect physician is you ask me)
    Last edited by lowenz; 12th Mar 2020 at 16:08.

  4. #329
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    That video was posted on YT March 4th. So it is at least 8 days old.
    According to the tracker in the first post, there are now 12462 infections in Italy.
    According to our local news (this evening), the deathtoll in Italy went up from 827 yesterday to 1016 today.
    1016 Deaths out of 12462 infections is 8.15%. A lot higher than the 2% that the doctor in the video was mentioning.

  5. #330
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    We are going into preventative semi isolation tomorrow after a last minute shop for timber, sand and cement, pea shingle and other important items. There are a number of reasons for this which are not really of interest.

    In the meantime, I want to know what's going on everywhere and so I'm keeping track with the Guardian coronavirus live updates which covers news from around the world and I'm impressed by the sheer volume of reports they're providing, updating every few minutes.

  6. #331
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Good luck everyone practicing social distancing. At least I know I can always chat here.

    In other news, ugh, you should see what the anti-vaxxers have cooked up for this. It'll be some long conspiratorial lists of pharma companies doing x, y, z and lo and behold coronavirus happens and they start making a vaccine for it, and it was all funded by [some rich person]. The guy keeps saying at the end of these things like "that's just too much of a coincidence" and "you can't make this up". Um, if something is too coincidental to be true, actually they can just make it up. I guess the only saving grace is the most in-denial people tend to be rural, where their role isn't as critical as people in urban centers.

  7. #332
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    That video was posted on YT March 4th. So it is at least 8 days old.
    According to the tracker in the first post, there are now 12462 infections in Italy.
    According to our local news (this evening), the deathtoll in Italy went up from 827 yesterday to 1016 today.
    1016 Deaths out of 12462 infections is 8.15%. A lot higher than the 2% that the doctor in the video was mentioning.
    Exactly. But the medical considerations about the disease are correct.

    1085 deaths (maybe not all confirmed by central ISS).

  8. #333
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    the US is worse based on the level of stupid that we engage in, everyone is running like a chicken with their heads cut off over a virus that kills 3.4% or so of those infected, H1N1 was WORSE and the media did NOT spread the bullshit they are now.
    Allow for me to explain to you yet again that the only reason why H1N1 is worse is because we allow it to run its course nearly unabated. If we did the same with coronavirus with its 3.4% death rate, those 61 million infected would equate to 2,074,000 dead. Considerably more than the 61,000 who died of the flu last year.

    And that's not considering the massive strain it'd put on our healthcare system. Only a small percentage of flu cases need intensive care. Something like 14% of coronavirus victims need to be put on ventilators in an ICU ward.

    So, in closing, coronavirus isn't the goddamn flu. Shut the fuck up about calling the flu. All it does is make you look like an idiot playing politics just so you can accuse others of playing politics.

  9. #334
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    I think America finally woke up.

    The biggest money grubbers of all - Disney - closed Disneyland.
    Major sports leagues: MLB, NHL, NBA have suspended their seasons. March madness cancelled.
    New York City declares state of emergency. Broadway is closing up.
    New York State bans any events or public gatherings of 500 or more people.

    In my area, which has not yet been hit hard:
    Most events cancelled
    Museums closing
    Dozens of school districts just announced closures
    Many colleges are cancelling classes and evicting students from the dorms this weekend

    At work:
    My company started cancelling international travel last week, and today they're restricting domestic travel
    As of today, we are required to hold all meetings virtually if possible
    Can't have gatherings of more than 20 people
    My commute was really light today, must be a lot of people staying home

    And now the hoarders are out in force. I just went to the supermarket Tues night and there was TP and hand sanitizer in stock. I didn't think we needed any, so I didn't buy it. Tonight, my wife asked me to stop and get some TP on the way home from work, because we only have three rolls left in the house. I went to two supermarkets and a Walmart, and every store's paper isle was just about bare. I saw people loading up their carriages with all the paper towels they could fit, in lieu of TP. I also saw a carriage full to the top with frozen pizzas, another loaded to the max with soda, and one couple was making multiple trips into the store to stock up on bottled water. They must have had at least 1000 bottles in the back of their truck and were going back in for more.

    There's still a lot of people in denial though.

  10. #335
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    And it looks like you're finally starting testing people. You can always count on the US to do the right thing once every other option has been exhausted.

    Meanwhile, there seem to be mass graves in Iran. Hopefully because of the coronavirus.

  11. #336
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    And the lockdown didn't work at all in China, as people were still allowed out under certain conditions. And it was all those people that got let out that spread it world over.

  12. #337
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    In other news, today was the first day of the US Census. That's tragically funny on a number of different levels.

  13. #338
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    good morning. hope you are all well.

  14. #339
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2005
    Location: Germany
    Here in Germany in many federal states the schools & kindergarten have been closed now. All trade fairs have been cancelled and much more.

  15. #340
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Yes, I'm fine. I hope you and the others here are fine too.

    ==
    Meaningless local statistics. Skip if you want.

    Dutch infections went from 614 to 804 (190 increase) today. Deaths went from 5 to 10.
    All 10 deaths were elderly people with preexisting conditions.
    The village where I grew up now has 11 infections. To be honest, those 11 are in a "community" ("gemeente" in Dutch). Which consists of several larger and smaller villages. 30k people in 7 villages. The village I grew up in has 5k people. I don't know exactly where those 11 infections are.

    The number of infections in my current "community" has risen to 5. It was 1 on Monday.
    The community consists of 12 villages and 35k people.
    Today I learned that the infections are actually in my village. Where I do groceries and stuff.
    So it's pretty close now.

    I'm doing another rerun of DS2 Sotfs. I've just started NG+.
    I'm getting myself used to the idea of hollows all around me.

  16. #341
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    daughters school is cancelled for at least 2 weeks, NBA and hockey games cancelled as well, this was the movie theater last night.
    (Meme removed)
    people are going full retard still .


    TP gone, bottled water gone, cleaning products gone.

    the economy is going to take a shit here.

  17. #342
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Hope that 2 weeks suffice......

  18. #343
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    I don't think we can even afford that from an economic stand point.
    things to our advantage, summer is almost here. that should bring numbers down, disadvantage, people are in panic mode , shelves are empty and that leads to even more panic buying, in the shop we are about to run out of mask & we can't weld/grind w/o them so wtf do we do then? our bills are going to pile up. the apparent large percentage of infections seemingly means plenty of us had it and nothing happened (I had mild symptoms and the went away in a couple of days, no I did not get tested nor do I plan on getting tested), the current faces of people with the virus are Tom hanks-his wife and the basketball players, if we made people in ICU the face of the virus people would REALLY panic.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic..._vhMw_iPbzTBGU
    Trump to Declare National Emergency to Speed Virus Response
    we are NOT ready/equipped to deal with this, seems no one is and that is scary to a degree.
    little video

  19. #344
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Well, jkcerda, it seems it took a Joe Rogan podcast to make you realize this is a real crisis. A bit sad. But better late than never.

    A friend of mine plays in a band, professionally. The gigs are his main source of income. All his band's gigs for the next 2 months have been cancelled. No income for him. I hope people here are not just safe medically, but also survive financially. Good luck.

  20. #345
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    people are going full retard still .
    Sure, four years ago. This is how stupid rumors start.

  21. #346
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night

  22. #347
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2001
    Location: Somewhere
    I am a professional musician, I played a gig last night and I am pretty sure that will be the last one for some time by the way things seem to going in Australia. Luckily my main source of income is from teaching and they havent closed down schools yet, though that seems to be on the cards. From the information I am getting as the end of term is drawing near they will shut down schools a week early and a week after the school break, which amounts to a 4 week period.

  23. #348
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Allow for me to explain to you yet again that the only reason why H1N1 is worse is because we allow it to run its course nearly unabated. If we did the same with coronavirus with its 3.4% death rate, those 61 million infected would equate to 2,074,000 dead. Considerably more than the 61,000 who died of the flu last year.

    And that's not considering the massive strain it'd put on our healthcare system. Only a small percentage of flu cases need intensive care. Something like 14% of coronavirus victims need to be put on ventilators in an ICU ward.

    So, in closing, coronavirus isn't the goddamn flu. Shut the fuck up about calling the flu. All it does is make you look like an idiot playing politics just so you can accuse others of playing politics.
    that 3.4 % death rate is from "known" cases, how many people are actually infected that have NOT been affected or counted for that matter? this is a "pandemic" where allegedly "millions" are infected and deaths are far less .
    world wide TOTAL deaths attributed to the virus are UNDER 5K. it's fine & dandy to be concerned and take all the necessary precautions to nip this in the bud, but spare me the 2,074,000 dead when GLOBALLY we are at less than 5k.
    YES, I get the other side of the story.
    (Meme removed)

  24. #349
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    That was based upon current projections of what's currently known. The reality is that the virus could be far, far less deadly, and we could be extrapolating from a small sample base that represents the extreme ends of the spectrum. That 2,000,000 dead isn't anywhere near set in stone, it's just a potentiality based upon something we really know very little about.

    In short, we should err on the side of caution, and treat the worst case scenario as a given. With something like this, it's better to overreact and look stupid later than be flippant about it, and end up with millions dead because we didn't take it seriously enough.

    edit: and I should clarify that by overreact, I don't mean bum rush the stores, and get into knife fights over TP and bottled water, I mean curtail travel for a limited amount of time, and postpone big public events while we ride out the worst of this.
    Last edited by Renzatic; 13th Mar 2020 at 13:39.

  25. #350
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    plenty are being flippant about it because countries like China where it started about 3 months ago & has a population of 1.3 BILLLION people only got less than 4k deaths, the entire quarantines of cities did NOT happen until about a month ago. HOW many people were infected? NO ONE KNOWS, but EVERYONE is more than happy to push that 3.4% death rate as if that was indeed set in stone.

    politics aside this panic & quarantine measures are fucking up economies EVERYWHERE, the only ones benefiting here are the rich. all of us peons are going to end up with a BK if we stay home too long.

    one good thing I see is that FINALLY the US and others are realizing that is bad to have all the manufacturing eggs in China, goes for pharmaceuticals as well.

    again, we are making mountains out of molehills when the total death count to date is less than 5k WORLDWIDE.

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