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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #376

  2. #377
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Which is the prime example of why we should be taking this seriously, and not dismissing it as "not even as bad as the flu", JK. That's not panic. That's appropriate cautiousness.

  3. #378
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Alright, here you go. Let's make it official.



    It's probably been said, but Trump's response is not hard to understand. His brand of NPD is the kind that prizes power over powerlessness, and it's important that the powerless get the suffering that's coming to them for being weak. A disease outbreaks is the concrete sign of the weakness of a shithole country. And in NPD logic, no matter what, we can't be a shithole country or I'd be the president of a shithole people. So I think he was under pretty extreme psychological pressure to deny corona is a threat to the US and hide evidence of it. But once it is clearly in, he has to be "presidential" in the moment and show what a "powerful country" does, like shutting down all travel to Europe in a single stroke. It's all signaling.
    Last edited by demagogue; 13th Mar 2020 at 19:45.

  4. #379
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    To be fair, shutting down all travel for a temporary period isn't too terrible of an idea, given the circumstances. It's just that more needs to be done, and it needs to be done two weeks ago.

  5. #380
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    As I wrote, Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz got tested positive Wednesday night. Immediately, even before they got on the plane back to Utah, all team-members of the Utah Jazz got tested for covid-19. And the coaching staff. And the rest of the traveling staff of the Utah Jazz. Over 50 tests done.

    Yesterday Charles Barkley (ex-NBA player, Hall of Famer, now media-personality) felt a bit ill. Flu-like symptoms a bit. He went home and got tested for covid-19. (Result is not known yet).

    So I follow NBA basketball. I sometimes read reddit.com/r/nba.
    Dozens and dozens of posters on reddit.com: "How come all these rich people get tested for covid-19 immediately ? My father/mother/grandpa/grandma were ill this week, they went to the hospital, stood in line for a long time, and then were told they could *NOT* get a test. Didn't qualify. Missing one symptom, fever not high enough, no proven contact with a confirmed covid-19 case, etc, etc".

    Oklahoma state can do 100 tests per day. They used half of their daily tests last Wednesday on a bunch of rich kids out of state.

    Trump announced that he negotiated with US healthcare insurance that nobody has to pay a deductible for the cost of getting tested for covid-19. What he didn't say is that you can only get tested if your healthcare insurer agrees/authorizes a test. Now it may be that hospitals are denying doing tests because they don't have enough test-kits atm. But it might also be that they'll keep denying tests, just to keep costs down. We'll have to wait and see.

    I've said it before. Poverty, excessive costs of health-care, and bad/no health-care insurance for a large part of the population, are factors that are gonna make this outbreak a lot worse in the US than in other countries.

  6. #381
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    like shutting down all travel to Europe
    Well, except countries where he has his golf courses.

  7. #382
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Trump announced that he negotiated with US healthcare insurance that nobody has to pay a deductible for the cost of getting tested for covid-19. What he didn't say is that you can only get tested if your healthcare insurer agrees/authorizes a test. Now it may be that hospitals are denying doing tests because they don't have enough test-kits atm. But it might also be that they'll keep denying tests, just to keep costs down. We'll have to wait and see.
    A week ago or so, at the press conference where they boasted about 1.5 million test kits going out to the hospitals, someone asked the US vice president what the plan is for uninsured people. Not only did they end the conference and run out of the room as fast as they could, his press secretary, as a parting remark, chided reporters for putting on a show for the camera. Yeah, not like it's a matter of life and death or anything.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...-task-force-2/

    Q Can you please supply some guidance to the uninsured?

    THE VICE PRESIDENT: It’s probably a very — it’s probably a very good place — it’s probably a good — very good place to step off. We’re going to go back to work.

  8. #383
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    So, I watched the Wednesday House hearing on the coronavirus response to get a better idea of what's happening in the US. For the most part it was pretty predictable, with Republicans praising how perfect a job the president is doing and how dare Democrats politicise this and Democrats demanding to know why the US is not South Korea. One thing caught my ear however... To the question on whether the US plans to have large-scale drive through testing like the Koreans are doing, the director of the CDC said there are no plans to have test centres like that because the US is "trying to maintain the relationship between individuals and their healthcare providers." Exactly how many US citizens do have a "relationship with their healthcare provider"? Can someone who's uninsured just call up whoever would be the US equivalent of their family doctor (GP?) and ask for advice or how does that work?

  9. #384
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I wish we still had drive-ins around here.

  10. #385
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Lots of information about covid-19 on Dutch TV tonight. I even learned a few things. Interesting info: we have 1150 beds on Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in the country. We currently have 50 covid-19 patients in those ICUs in the whole country. (FYI, we have 17.5M people in NL).

    That means when we have more than 1150 patients that need the ICU, the shit hits the fan.
    That is 23x more ICU-patients than what we have today.
    We had 804 confirmed infections today. So 50 of those are in ICU.
    That means that when we have 23x804 = 18492 infections, we'll have 1150 patients that need ICU.
    And our ICUs will be full. (And that's not even counting normal patients).
    Note that when we hit 18k infections, that means *only* 1 in a 1000 people are infected.
    I think the number of infections doubles every 3 days.
    (This might actually go faster. We had our first infection on Feb 27, only 15 days ago. We're at 804 now. That's more like doubling every 1.5 days).
    2^5 = 32
    32 * 804 = 25k
    So basically if the current number of patients doubles 5 times, all ICU beds will be full.
    5 * 3 days = 15 days

    Conclusion: if the current spreading on covid-19 in NL keeps continuing as it has done over the past month, then roughly at the end of the month all beds in ICUs will be filled with covid-19 patients. In April the shit will hit the fan in NL.


    Is anyone of you familiar with these numbers in your country ? (Total number of beds in ICUs, current number of covid-19 patients in ICU, current number of infections, days it takes to double the number of infections, etc). If so, when do you expect your ICUs to be full ?
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 13th Mar 2020 at 23:29.

  11. #386
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I believe we have around 22,000 ICU beds, but that's not a massive advantage, considering we're host to a much larger population. If the infection rate double like it did just this past week, we'll probably end up in a similar situation around the same time.

  12. #387
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2019
    Location: Restaurant at end of universe

    13 minute video - What Obama did with Ebola 2014

    Trump administration eliminated the White House Pandemic Team in 2018.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...xits-abruptly/




  13. #388
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Very few left here. Was quite a few around when I was a kid. 2 left. Quite a different experience to going to a theater.
    I don't think we have any around here anymore. The only one we had around here was a few towns south of me that used to show old B-movies for people to watch, playing to the spirit of a bygone age. It shut down about 12 years ago, and I never got the chance to visit it.

  14. #389
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    I saw some great horror movies at the Rebel drive in at Oxford. Some great tits too. Some of them on the screen.

    On a more related note, Cher cancelled her concert in Memphis this monday. We were going to that. Damn scared ass bitches.

  15. #390
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Wait. You wanted to go to a Cher concert, and you're calling everyone else a bitch? At least you talked about tits before you said that...

    SICK BURN!

    But yeah, drive-ins. I'm hoping against all odds that they come back into style at some point. Right now, all I can do is live vicariously through Joe Bob Briggs, watching old reruns of Monstervision.

  16. #391
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I've been watching Cinemassacre for years, man. I know all about the AVGN.

  17. #392
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Well, except countries where he has his golf courses.


    Romania, Bulgaria and Albania?

    Bosnia and Herzegovina?

    Who knew?!

  18. #393
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277...nse&start=4496

    It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.

  19. #394
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)

    So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.

    The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.

  20. #395
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Yeah I think I've read the article, if it was this one: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/u...ng-delays.html

    That seems like the usual red tape. But what I'm wondering is why the US declined the WHO test kits that were worked out in Berlin, even as a temporary measure.

  21. #396
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?
    The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.



    By the way everyone in the National Guard has been activating including some people who are on Individual Ready Reserve status. I'm hearing from multiple, independent sources now that they're planning on implementing a complete lockdown/martial law in the US beginning about a week from now.

    Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277...nse&start=4496

    It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.
    It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....

    Which, by the way, China is now blaming the pandemic on the US and is threatening to cut off all exports of medical supplies.



  22. #397
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    We're two weeks behind Italy. Here's what's about to happen (absent serious controls).



    I think it was already mentioned above, but the R0 (how many people 1 person infects) is about 3 people, and the doubling rate (how many days it takes to double the number of cases) is just over 3 days. That works out from 1 person to 1 million in 60+ days (of which the US is already 12 days into) and 7 billion people in 90+ days (if left unimpeded).

  23. #398
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.
    For once and for all, learn to read. Who said anything about flights? The last I checked, the US also has a land border as well as a coastline. Also, completely closing down the border is not possible even in North Korea, what makes you think it is possible in the US, never mind the virus already being there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....
    The WHO tests had already been shipped to nearly 60 countries by the end of February. Seemed to manage the logistics just fine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Which, by the way, China is now blaming the pandemic on the US and is threatening to cut off all exports of medical supplies.
    Or maybe don't call it the Chinese virus, because it's fucking idiotic and will do nothing but promote xenophobia and discrimination.

  24. #399
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)

    So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.

    The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.
    Very on point.

    In our health care system, there is very little reward for somebody who takes a risk, steps out of their lane, and saves people. But there is great punishment for somebody who takes a risk that doesn't pan out. Even when there is no litigation, complaints can ruin a career.

    Here's an anecdote, not COVID-19 related:

    A couple of my close friends are primary care physicians. Even after getting into private practice, they would take shifts at the ER to keep their skills sharp. And they both stopped because it was putting their career at risk. The way they related it to me was that you have to go precisely by the book these days, follow procedures, don't exercise *any* professional judgment. That includes insisting on tests if the patient meets certain written criteria, even if you feel sure they're unnecessary. Also, admitting ER patients to the hospital if they meet certain criteria, even if it seems unnecessary or they would be better off at home. And most importantly, you have to document *every* little detail, so typing took most of their shift time. It's all about covering your ass in case a complaint is filed, which is most common in emergency medicine. The way they were trained to work the ER during their student and internship days is not acceptable any longer.

    One of the two was actually reprimanded by the state medical board and placed on probation for this: A woman pregnant in her 3rd trimester came into the ER presenting vaginal bleeding. Based on the frequency and volume of blood and absence of any other risk factors, he diagnosed it as normal spotting, which can occur at any time during pregnancy, and sent her home. In a primary case practice, this happens all the time (or so I'm told, I'm not a doctor). The patient, believing that any spotting after the first trimester was a problem, filed a complaint with the state medical board. He was reprimanded for not following emergency care recommendations by letter, including not conducting a full pelvic exam, not ordering an ultrasound, and not admitting the patient so that a blood sample could be obtained.

    Having that publicly available black mark on his record cost him some business in his private practice, but the main reason why he stopped was that he couldn't afford insurance to continue. My other friend is unscathed by the ER, but stopped working shifts because he saw the rise in complaints, and saw that hospitals were not standing by their doctors. It became a situation where both doctors perceived there's only risk and zero reward for doing a better job. If anybody complains, nobody has your back, not your supervisors, the hospital, review boards, all their lawyers, or your insurance company.

    Now, regarding COVID-19, neither of the two friends knows anything more about what's happening than we do. There's hardly any information flowing down, and they STILL can't test anyone who hasn't been traced to a confirmed case.

  25. #400
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    I don't know whether this has been posted already but I read this morning that Jack Ma was coming to the rescue and I admit to laughing, a lot.

    Asia’s richest man announced his intention on Friday to ship 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks to the U.S. in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

    Jack Ma’s charitable foundation and his China-based company's foundation, the Alibaba Foundation, have also sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
    We've found, at least in Wales, that it can take a couple of days for confirmed cases to be published so we're grateful to be included in the Welsh grapevine. 100% accurate so far. We're also lucky to be isolated and sometimes snowed in so we tend to keep a couple of months worth of food (and loo roll) around and we have our own spring so don't need to worry about water.

    I'm not religious so I can't say you're in my prayers but you are all in my thoughts. Keep well.

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