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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #401
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I wish we still had drive-ins around here.

  2. #402
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Lots of information about covid-19 on Dutch TV tonight. I even learned a few things. Interesting info: we have 1150 beds on Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in the country. We currently have 50 covid-19 patients in those ICUs in the whole country. (FYI, we have 17.5M people in NL).

    That means when we have more than 1150 patients that need the ICU, the shit hits the fan.
    That is 23x more ICU-patients than what we have today.
    We had 804 confirmed infections today. So 50 of those are in ICU.
    That means that when we have 23x804 = 18492 infections, we'll have 1150 patients that need ICU.
    And our ICUs will be full. (And that's not even counting normal patients).
    Note that when we hit 18k infections, that means *only* 1 in a 1000 people are infected.
    I think the number of infections doubles every 3 days.
    (This might actually go faster. We had our first infection on Feb 27, only 15 days ago. We're at 804 now. That's more like doubling every 1.5 days).
    2^5 = 32
    32 * 804 = 25k
    So basically if the current number of patients doubles 5 times, all ICU beds will be full.
    5 * 3 days = 15 days

    Conclusion: if the current spreading on covid-19 in NL keeps continuing as it has done over the past month, then roughly at the end of the month all beds in ICUs will be filled with covid-19 patients. In April the shit will hit the fan in NL.


    Is anyone of you familiar with these numbers in your country ? (Total number of beds in ICUs, current number of covid-19 patients in ICU, current number of infections, days it takes to double the number of infections, etc). If so, when do you expect your ICUs to be full ?
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 13th Mar 2020 at 23:29.

  3. #403
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I believe we have around 22,000 ICU beds, but that's not a massive advantage, considering we're host to a much larger population. If the infection rate double like it did just this past week, we'll probably end up in a similar situation around the same time.

  4. #404
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I wish we still had drive-ins around here.
    Very few left here. Was quite a few around when I was a kid. 2 left. Quite a different experience to going to a theater.

  5. #405
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2019
    Location: Restaurant at end of universe

    13 minute video - What Obama did with Ebola 2014

    Trump administration eliminated the White House Pandemic Team in 2018.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...xits-abruptly/




  6. #406
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Very few left here. Was quite a few around when I was a kid. 2 left. Quite a different experience to going to a theater.
    I don't think we have any around here anymore. The only one we had around here was a few towns south of me that used to show old B-movies for people to watch, playing to the spirit of a bygone age. It shut down about 12 years ago, and I never got the chance to visit it.

  7. #407
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Damn. It's something to experience at least once. Very old school, whilst being a unique and good experience. Good in both cold (since you can rug up) and hot (since you can open up the windows or sit in a chair nearby your car) conditions. Obviously not good when it's raining.

  8. #408
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    I saw some great horror movies at the Rebel drive in at Oxford. Some great tits too. Some of them on the screen.

    On a more related note, Cher cancelled her concert in Memphis this monday. We were going to that. Damn scared ass bitches.

  9. #409
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Wait. You wanted to go to a Cher concert, and you're calling everyone else a bitch? At least you talked about tits before you said that...

    SICK BURN!

    But yeah, drive-ins. I'm hoping against all odds that they come back into style at some point. Right now, all I can do is live vicariously through Joe Bob Briggs, watching old reruns of Monstervision.

  10. #410
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    You'd love James Rolfe (aka Video Game Nerd) he never shuts up about Monstervision and had Joe for an interview once. And there's the monster madness October month. Love it.

  11. #411
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I've been watching Cinemassacre for years, man. I know all about the AVGN.

  12. #412
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Well, except countries where he has his golf courses.


    Romania, Bulgaria and Albania?

    Bosnia and Herzegovina?

    Who knew?!

  13. #413
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I've been watching Cinemassacre for years, man. I know all about the AVGN.
    Lol sorry. I forget who watches what. Too many people to keep track of .

  14. #414
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277...nse&start=4496

    It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.

  15. #415
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)

    So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.

    The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.

  16. #416
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Yeah I think I've read the article, if it was this one: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/u...ng-delays.html

    That seems like the usual red tape. But what I'm wondering is why the US declined the WHO test kits that were worked out in Berlin, even as a temporary measure.

  17. #417
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?
    The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.



    By the way everyone in the National Guard has been activating including some people who are on Individual Ready Reserve status. I'm hearing from multiple, independent sources now that they're planning on implementing a complete lockdown/martial law in the US beginning about a week from now.

    Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277...nse&start=4496

    It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.
    It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....

    Which, by the way, China is now blaming the pandemic on the US and is threatening to cut off all exports of medical supplies.



  18. #418
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    We're two weeks behind Italy. Here's what's about to happen (absent serious controls).



    I think it was already mentioned above, but the R0 (how many people 1 person infects) is about 3 people, and the doubling rate (how many days it takes to double the number of cases) is just over 3 days. That works out from 1 person to 1 million in 60+ days (of which the US is already 12 days into) and 7 billion people in 90+ days (if left unimpeded).

  19. #419
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    The key apparently is when the "peak" is reached. Where after the rates start to drop. That's what was talked about on the news a fair bit.

    Here in Australia, we're at 100 and something cases presently, so we'd be at the top of that chart.
    Last edited by icemann; 14th Mar 2020 at 10:35.

  20. #420
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.
    For once and for all, learn to read. Who said anything about flights? The last I checked, the US also has a land border as well as a coastline. Also, completely closing down the border is not possible even in North Korea, what makes you think it is possible in the US, never mind the virus already being there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....
    The WHO tests had already been shipped to nearly 60 countries by the end of February. Seemed to manage the logistics just fine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Which, by the way, China is now blaming the pandemic on the US and is threatening to cut off all exports of medical supplies.
    Or maybe don't call it the Chinese virus, because it's fucking idiotic and will do nothing but promote xenophobia and discrimination.

  21. #421
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)

    So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.

    The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.
    Very on point.

    In our health care system, there is very little reward for somebody who takes a risk, steps out of their lane, and saves people. But there is great punishment for somebody who takes a risk that doesn't pan out. Even when there is no litigation, complaints can ruin a career.

    Here's an anecdote, not COVID-19 related:

    A couple of my close friends are primary care physicians. Even after getting into private practice, they would take shifts at the ER to keep their skills sharp. And they both stopped because it was putting their career at risk. The way they related it to me was that you have to go precisely by the book these days, follow procedures, don't exercise *any* professional judgment. That includes insisting on tests if the patient meets certain written criteria, even if you feel sure they're unnecessary. Also, admitting ER patients to the hospital if they meet certain criteria, even if it seems unnecessary or they would be better off at home. And most importantly, you have to document *every* little detail, so typing took most of their shift time. It's all about covering your ass in case a complaint is filed, which is most common in emergency medicine. The way they were trained to work the ER during their student and internship days is not acceptable any longer.

    One of the two was actually reprimanded by the state medical board and placed on probation for this: A woman pregnant in her 3rd trimester came into the ER presenting vaginal bleeding. Based on the frequency and volume of blood and absence of any other risk factors, he diagnosed it as normal spotting, which can occur at any time during pregnancy, and sent her home. In a primary case practice, this happens all the time (or so I'm told, I'm not a doctor). The patient, believing that any spotting after the first trimester was a problem, filed a complaint with the state medical board. He was reprimanded for not following emergency care recommendations by letter, including not conducting a full pelvic exam, not ordering an ultrasound, and not admitting the patient so that a blood sample could be obtained.

    Having that publicly available black mark on his record cost him some business in his private practice, but the main reason why he stopped was that he couldn't afford insurance to continue. My other friend is unscathed by the ER, but stopped working shifts because he saw the rise in complaints, and saw that hospitals were not standing by their doctors. It became a situation where both doctors perceived there's only risk and zero reward for doing a better job. If anybody complains, nobody has your back, not your supervisors, the hospital, review boards, all their lawyers, or your insurance company.

    Now, regarding COVID-19, neither of the two friends knows anything more about what's happening than we do. There's hardly any information flowing down, and they STILL can't test anyone who hasn't been traced to a confirmed case.

  22. #422
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    I don't know whether this has been posted already but I read this morning that Jack Ma was coming to the rescue and I admit to laughing, a lot.

    Asia’s richest man announced his intention on Friday to ship 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks to the U.S. in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

    Jack Ma’s charitable foundation and his China-based company's foundation, the Alibaba Foundation, have also sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
    We've found, at least in Wales, that it can take a couple of days for confirmed cases to be published so we're grateful to be included in the Welsh grapevine. 100% accurate so far. We're also lucky to be isolated and sometimes snowed in so we tend to keep a couple of months worth of food (and loo roll) around and we have our own spring so don't need to worry about water.

    I'm not religious so I can't say you're in my prayers but you are all in my thoughts. Keep well.

  23. #423
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Thanks welshman

    (Curio: my original - intended by my father but changed by a nurse - name was a gaelic name, Morvan and I really love it)

  24. #424
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    They should've rolled with one of those Irish names that isn't pronounced how it's spelled.

  25. #425
    Joe Biden set up a Coronavirus committee of “experts” to politicize the pandemic, um excuse me, I mean to advise him.

    But get a load of this, one of the guys on the committee believes all people should die by age 75. Ezekiel Emanuel (is that Irish?). Here’s a quote from him:

    Here is a simple truth that many of us seem to resist: living too long is also a loss. It renders many of us, if not disabled, then faltering and declining, a state that may not be worse than death but is nonetheless deprived. It robs us of our creativity and ability to contribute to work, society, the world. It transforms how people experience us, relate to us, and, most important, remember us. We are no longer remembered as vibrant and engaged but as feeble, ineffectual, even pathetic.
    He’s written before that the elderly should not get flu shots.

    So Joe Biden, who is older than 75 by the way, put this evil ghoul on his committee to advise him on a pandemic that ravages the elderly. This is fucked up.





    the US is worse based on the level of stupid that we engage in, everyone is running like a chicken with their heads cut off over a virus that kills 3.4% or so of those infected
    Think about what 3.4% + exponential spread actually means though. For comparison that makes it over 20 times more deadly than the flu people keep saying it's the same as. The logistics of just losing that many people (let alone societal disruption) is staggering.

    This virus also disproportionately impacts certain genotypes among them both Jewish and Italian which is very bad for me, so I'm staying away from people for now.

    Besides which a lot of Americans fit this stereotype and we have a massive percentage of people who are obese, have heart conditions, and diabetes all of which are significant risk factors:



    A huge portion of Americans look more or less like that (randomly picked Google Image Result) and that type of person generally has both a weak immune system to begin with plus chronic conditions resulting from their lifestyle that mean their mortality odds go up to about 10-15%.


    Having that publicly available black mark on his record cost him some business in his private practice, but the main reason why he stopped was that he couldn't afford insurance to continue. My other friend is unscathed by the ER, but stopped working shifts because he saw the rise in complaints, and saw that hospitals were not standing by their doctors. It became a situation where both doctors perceived there's only risk and zero reward for doing a better job. If anybody complains, nobody has your back, not your supervisors, the hospital, review boards, all their lawyers, or your insurance company.
    Can confirm that's a factor. My own parent left private practice and has stayed some combination of government or government contractor for almost 20 years now just because the insurance and liability involved with private practice are insane and beyond his risk appetite. The medical profession is massively suffering from our overall societal trend of massive zero-defect mentality, risk averse, paperwork obsessed bureaucracy micromanaging the people who actually do the work to the point they can't actually work.

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