Reply With QuoteWell shit. Two coronavirus cases confirmed in Georgia in Fulton County. I'm gonna be travelling down near there tomorrow.
Joy of joys.
This is a good real-time tracker...Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
As of right now, there are...
Total Confirmed Cases
90,937
Total Deaths
3,117
Total Recovered
48,063
I have added the real-time tracker to the OP.
Last edited by Vae; 3rd Mar 2020 at 11:28. Reason: Updated Link
Well shit. Two coronavirus cases confirmed in Georgia in Fulton County. I'm gonna be travelling down near there tomorrow.
Joy of joys.
It's gonna blow over (most likely) or we're all on the verge of watching The Stand in real-life (I think meteor strikes are more probable than that)
Either way I couldn't possibly care less.
Far Cry 5 in a nutshell !Originally Posted by jkcerda
You're GOING MONTANA REDNECK
A few things I've not seen mentioned.
The regular flue has a seasonal element. People tend to get the flue in Autumn and Winter. By the time Spring arrives, the flue wave seems to go away. And pop up again in October or so. Does this apply to the Corona virus as well ? If so, we can expect the spreading to slow down in a month or so. And pop back up in October. We then have 7 months to find a cure, develop a vaccin, or find a way to make the symptoms less deadly.
Outside China, the outbreak must be mostly among rich people. Because poor people don't fly to China (for business or for pleasure). What happens when the Corona virus spreads among the poor ? Homeless people ? People living in institutions (for the elderly, for the mentally ill, handicapped, prisons). In the US poor people have less or no health care, are they gonna see a doctor or even admit that they might have the corona virus ?
Personally I don't think this can be contained. Too bad. 2% of the the population is gonna die. Is it 2% ? The Chinese have given unreliable numbers. In Italy, the latest number I can find is: 2036 cases, 52 deaths. That's 2.5%. But not everyone of those (2036 - 52) has recovered yet. So the death-rate might be higher. 3% or maybe 4% even ?
What is the normal annual death rate ? Suppose average max age is 80 years old. Then 1.25% of people should die each year. Most countries have more young than old people (still). So let's say the annual mortality rate is ~1%. Because of the Corona virus, this year (and next year) it might be 3-5x as high.
You read everywhere that only the elderly, the weak, and people with respiratory diseases are at risk. But we've learned that in China doctors and nurses died too. I would think that doctors and nurses must have excellent immune systems, better than average. Because of their jobs. So if even they die, how vulnerable are people outside those 3 mentioned risk groups ? I haven't seen any statistics yet.
1) Yes, the cold weather is an ally for every pathogen that searches for your lungs! Normal cold (sneezing) is caused by a rhinovirus or a coronavirus. This coronavirus in particular acts like the 2003 SARS one, it's why it's dangerous (less lethal but very contagious so the elder people are at higher risk to be infected and to develop the severe form of the direct pneumonia until the vaccine is ready)
2) virus doesn't give a shit to social condition, not because it brings "justice"but because if R0 is high 1 person can create 10 infected ones just spreading it in a small room/ambient talking. Think about a car or a bus.
Risk for medical staff the other people don't have:
1) multiple re-infections question: are they possible? How much the immunoglobulines remain in the bloodstream? Nobody can answer now!
1.1) bacterial overinfection
Death cause in young people:
2) bad/heavy inflammatory response in some young ones too can kills, NOT the virus "directly". It's just like a body self-bombardment
Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 09:21.
Dont' think about deaths, think about the hospital resources starvation (intensive care units @collapse): THAT is the problem, now, here in North Italy hospitals.
And no, you can't move around a biological hazard for miles (kilometers
All the red/orange zone hospitals (public and private) are converting general medicine sections to pneumonia treatment sections. And reanimation sections for the ones who can't breath autonomously.
Don't forget the more cynical question: "What insurance company can give you support if you've got a virus born only 3 months ago, that can act like SARS virus, and nobody knows if it can go quiet in some organs and then returning after some years so you'll become a global threat level infection spreader just talking to other people" ?
Where are the "Free Market solves everything!!111" zealots (Tea Party and nuts alike) ?
Oh yes, they're praying for a vaccine with their INVISIBLE HANDS
Lowenz, do you know how many of the (2036 - 52 =) 1984 cases have been official declared as "recovered" ?
(And yes, I understand they people who have been declared recovered might still carry the virus. Or might get reinfected again. I'm just curious how many people recovered enough so they don't have any symptoms anymore).
Here is a link to the same thing as Vae posted, without the idiotic ads on it.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Renz, please can you take that nonsense link of his out and replace it?
A very little fraction for now.
'cause you must wait 4 days since the symptoms remission to check with the last test.
And then you'll be declared "recovered".
Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 10:32.
In Italia frenano i contagi: lunedì l'incremento dei malati è stato del 16% (258 casi in più) a fronte dell'aumento del 50% registrato il giorno prima. Di questi, inoltre, il 50% è asintomatico (o con sintemi lievi) e in isolamento domiciliare, il 40% è ricoverato con sintomi e solo il 10% in terapia intensiva. "Un dato confortante" dice il commissario Angelo Borrelli sottolineando che si tratta di una percentuale che ricalca il dato complessivo: su 1.835 malati, 927 sono in isolamento nella propria casa, 742 ricoverati con sintomi e 166 in terapia intensiva. Sono 149 i guariti, 52 i decessi.
-> 149 recovered
We're going to use the old Milan military hospital to "stock"
Hoping they're actually (near) virus-free......and there isn't any "re-infection" chance.
-> 166 in intensive care units in 2 weeks (balance from entrances AND exits)
Only for pneumonia Covid-19 related/SARS2 induced
Only here in Lombardy (Lodi, Cremona, Bergamo where I live)
Think about that.
And we got the best public health care in Europe, all the people over 65 well checked and cared of.
we all survived the cop flu
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
we are going to survive the beer flu. quit fear mongering.
Like islamic terrorism and Islam destroying western civilization?
So yeah, feel free to be a terrorist unless you've got nuclear warheads !
LOL
You can't control the spreading (and re-spreading, actually some italians are bringing back Coronavirus to China!) of these things. It's impossible no matter the barriers you're using or the economic hole you're accepting.
But you can control the expression as severe cases of pneumonia waiting for the vaccine.
republican talking points, yes I get it and that is just as wrong.
You can follow the italian situation in real-time here: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/20...ora-249954540/
*infected (positive to test in the past weeks)
*recovered
*dead (with coronavirus, can't say if death main cause or not)
+
*hospitalised
*hospitalised in intensive care units
*quarantine @home
*actual infected
*total number of tests
Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 11:48.
And I repeat ONE thing: this virus is really a medical staff nemesis, it's infecting doctors and nurses (10% of infected ones are from the medical staff)
This, the intensive care unit high need, the speed of the progression of the direct pneumonia without any particular symptoms (it can kill in 3 days) make SARS2 really scary.
And everyone can be a vector of this poison due to the contagiousness, without any particular "visually evident" symptom (subclinic condition).
should be gone by summer I hope.
Ah, it seems that Coronavirus loves kidney tissues too.
Just reporting.
no real way to stop it, how many people can afford to self quarantine?
(Meme removed)
We just don't know yet. There is some reason to think its spread might slow down significantly, because that's what happens to some of the other similar viruses, but it's not something you can count on. A delay would of course be good, not because we'd have a vaccine ready by then -- that's extremely unlikely -- but because it would give more time to prepare and gather equipment.
Well, not if they are going to have to pay thousands of dollars for testing, that's for sure: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240476806.html
We don't know yet. There's not enough data. For example, it might be that there are a large number of infected who show no symptoms and therefore the survival rate is much higher. And obviously it largely depends on the region -- what kind of care sick people are able to get. Also, the Spanish Flu had initially a far better survival rate first time around, more resembling an ordinary flu, but then came back later as a far more virulent strain.
Well, for some Bergamo zone towns we're waiting the promotion (.....) to "Red" :/
Time to go STALKER/Metro!
Where's my Geiger Counter and Anomaly Detector?
I'm waiting this since Chernobyl accident!
Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 13:53.
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