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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #26
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    This is a good real-time tracker...Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

    As of right now, there are...

    Total Confirmed Cases
    90,937

    Total Deaths
    3,117

    Total Recovered
    48,063


    I have added the real-time tracker to the OP.
    Last edited by Vae; 3rd Mar 2020 at 11:28. Reason: Updated Link

  2. #27
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Well shit. Two coronavirus cases confirmed in Georgia in Fulton County. I'm gonna be travelling down near there tomorrow.

    Joy of joys.

  3. #28
    It's gonna blow over (most likely) or we're all on the verge of watching The Stand in real-life (I think meteor strikes are more probable than that)

    Either way I couldn't possibly care less.

  4. #29
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    IF under forced quarantine ALL of you w/o preper supplies or guns are FUCKED........

    LIBERALS should be happy here
    https://www.foxla.com/news/nasa-imag...GJrWk0WFjlLFOg
    Far Cry 5 in a nutshell !

    You're GOING MONTANA REDNECK

  5. #30
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    A few things I've not seen mentioned.

    The regular flue has a seasonal element. People tend to get the flue in Autumn and Winter. By the time Spring arrives, the flue wave seems to go away. And pop up again in October or so. Does this apply to the Corona virus as well ? If so, we can expect the spreading to slow down in a month or so. And pop back up in October. We then have 7 months to find a cure, develop a vaccin, or find a way to make the symptoms less deadly.

    Outside China, the outbreak must be mostly among rich people. Because poor people don't fly to China (for business or for pleasure). What happens when the Corona virus spreads among the poor ? Homeless people ? People living in institutions (for the elderly, for the mentally ill, handicapped, prisons). In the US poor people have less or no health care, are they gonna see a doctor or even admit that they might have the corona virus ?

    Personally I don't think this can be contained. Too bad. 2% of the the population is gonna die. Is it 2% ? The Chinese have given unreliable numbers. In Italy, the latest number I can find is: 2036 cases, 52 deaths. That's 2.5%. But not everyone of those (2036 - 52) has recovered yet. So the death-rate might be higher. 3% or maybe 4% even ?

    What is the normal annual death rate ? Suppose average max age is 80 years old. Then 1.25% of people should die each year. Most countries have more young than old people (still). So let's say the annual mortality rate is ~1%. Because of the Corona virus, this year (and next year) it might be 3-5x as high.

    You read everywhere that only the elderly, the weak, and people with respiratory diseases are at risk. But we've learned that in China doctors and nurses died too. I would think that doctors and nurses must have excellent immune systems, better than average. Because of their jobs. So if even they die, how vulnerable are people outside those 3 mentioned risk groups ? I haven't seen any statistics yet.

  6. #31
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    1) Yes, the cold weather is an ally for every pathogen that searches for your lungs! Normal cold (sneezing) is caused by a rhinovirus or a coronavirus. This coronavirus in particular acts like the 2003 SARS one, it's why it's dangerous (less lethal but very contagious so the elder people are at higher risk to be infected and to develop the severe form of the direct pneumonia until the vaccine is ready)
    2) virus doesn't give a shit to social condition, not because it brings "justice" but because if R0 is high 1 person can create 10 infected ones just spreading it in a small room/ambient talking. Think about a car or a bus.

  7. #32
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    You read everywhere that only the elderly, the weak, and people with respiratory diseases are at risk. But we've learned that in China doctors and nurses died too. I would think that doctors and nurses must have excellent immune systems, better than average. Because of their jobs. So if even they die, how vulnerable are people outside those 3 mentioned risk groups ? I haven't seen any statistics yet.
    Risk for medical staff the other people don't have:

    1) multiple re-infections question: are they possible? How much the immunoglobulines remain in the bloodstream? Nobody can answer now!
    1.1) bacterial overinfection


    Death cause in young people:

    2) bad/heavy inflammatory response in some young ones too can kills, NOT the virus "directly". It's just like a body self-bombardment
    Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 09:21.

  8. #33
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    What is the normal annual death rate ? Suppose average max age is 80 years old. Then 1.25% of people should die each year. Most countries have more young than old people (still). So let's say the annual mortality rate is ~1%. Because of the Corona virus, this year (and next year) it might be 3-5x as high.
    Dont' think about deaths, think about the hospital resources starvation (intensive care units @collapse): THAT is the problem, now, here in North Italy hospitals.
    And no, you can't move around a biological hazard for miles (kilometers ) from the red zone(s) searching for some free chambers, it's too much dangerous for the region you're going to

    All the red/orange zone hospitals (public and private) are converting general medicine sections to pneumonia treatment sections. And reanimation sections for the ones who can't breath autonomously.

  9. #34
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    In the US poor people have less or no health care, are they gonna see a doctor or even admit that they might have the corona virus ?
    Don't forget the more cynical question: "What insurance company can give you support if you've got a virus born only 3 months ago, that can act like SARS virus, and nobody knows if it can go quiet in some organs and then returning after some years so you'll become a global threat level infection spreader just talking to other people" ?

    Where are the "Free Market solves everything!!111" zealots (Tea Party and nuts alike) ?

    Oh yes, they're praying for a vaccine with their INVISIBLE HANDS

  10. #35
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Lowenz, do you know how many of the (2036 - 52 =) 1984 cases have been official declared as "recovered" ?
    (And yes, I understand they people who have been declared recovered might still carry the virus. Or might get reinfected again. I'm just curious how many people recovered enough so they don't have any symptoms anymore).

  11. #36
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Here is a link to the same thing as Vae posted, without the idiotic ads on it.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

    Renz, please can you take that nonsense link of his out and replace it?

  12. #37
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Lowenz, do you know how many of the (2036 - 52 =) 1984 cases have been official declared as "recovered" ?
    (And yes, I understand they people who have been declared recovered might still carry the virus. Or might get reinfected again. I'm just curious how many people recovered enough so they don't have any symptoms anymore).
    A very little fraction for now.
    'cause you must wait 4 days since the symptoms remission to check with the last test.

    And then you'll be declared "recovered".
    Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 10:32.

  13. #38
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    In Italia frenano i contagi: lunedì l'incremento dei malati è stato del 16% (258 casi in più) a fronte dell'aumento del 50% registrato il giorno prima. Di questi, inoltre, il 50% è asintomatico (o con sintemi lievi) e in isolamento domiciliare, il 40% è ricoverato con sintomi e solo il 10% in terapia intensiva. "Un dato confortante" dice il commissario Angelo Borrelli sottolineando che si tratta di una percentuale che ricalca il dato complessivo: su 1.835 malati, 927 sono in isolamento nella propria casa, 742 ricoverati con sintomi e 166 in terapia intensiva. Sono 149 i guariti, 52 i decessi.

    -> 149 recovered

    We're going to use the old Milan military hospital to "stock" "in recovery" people from other hospitals.
    Hoping they're actually (near) virus-free......and there isn't any "re-infection" chance.

  14. #39
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    -> 166 in intensive care units in 2 weeks (balance from entrances AND exits)
    Only for pneumonia Covid-19 related/SARS2 induced
    Only here in Lombardy (Lodi, Cremona, Bergamo where I live)

    Think about that.
    And we got the best public health care in Europe, all the people over 65 well checked and cared of.

  15. #40
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    we all survived the cop flu
    https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm

    we are going to survive the beer flu. quit fear mongering.

  16. #41
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    quit fear mongering.
    Like islamic terrorism and Islam destroying western civilization?
    So yeah, feel free to be a terrorist unless you've got nuclear warheads !

    LOL

  17. #42
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    So far nothing has hit black plague levels of infection where getting it = 100% chance of death, since the middle ages. I'm expecting this whole thing to blow over in a few months.

    Here in Australia, we've yet to have an outbreak, but have had many cases of people coming from Asia and Iran who have it. All in quarantine currently. Only 2 cases of new contractions of it via person to person. I think it's only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs and then it spreading all over. I give it a month max.

    As I work with overseas students a lot (as I teach at a university), my chances of getting it are far higher than most. The only real way of a country giving themselves a high chance of it not getting in, is if they close their borders. I don't see that happening as it would = financial ruin for their economy. So it's a catch 22 situation. Over here, we've had a huge rise in racism against asian's and boycotting of asian restaurants. These situations always bring out the worst in people.

  18. #43
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    You can't control the spreading (and re-spreading, actually some italians are bringing back Coronavirus to China!) of these things. It's impossible no matter the barriers you're using or the economic hole you're accepting.
    But you can control the expression as severe cases of pneumonia waiting for the vaccine.

  19. #44
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Like islamic terrorism and Islam destroying western civilization?
    So yeah, feel free to be a terrorist unless you've got nuclear warheads !

    LOL
    republican talking points, yes I get it and that is just as wrong.

  20. #45
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    You can follow the italian situation in real-time here: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/20...ora-249954540/



    *infected (positive to test in the past weeks)
    *recovered
    *dead (with coronavirus, can't say if death main cause or not)

    +

    *hospitalised
    *hospitalised in intensive care units
    *quarantine @home
    *actual infected
    *total number of tests
    Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Mar 2020 at 11:48.

  21. #46
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    And I repeat ONE thing: this virus is really a medical staff nemesis, it's infecting doctors and nurses (10% of infected ones are from the medical staff)

    This, the intensive care unit high need, the speed of the progression of the direct pneumonia without any particular symptoms (it can kill in 3 days) make SARS2 really scary.
    And everyone can be a vector of this poison due to the contagiousness, without any particular "visually evident" symptom (subclinic condition).

  22. #47
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    And I repeat ONE thing: this virus is really a medical staff nemesis, it's infecting doctors and nurses (10% of infected ones are from the medical staff)

    This, the intensive care unit high need, the speed of the progression of the direct pneumonia without any particular symptoms (it can kill in 3 days) make SARS2 really scary.
    And everyone can be a vector of this poison due to the contagiousness, without any particular "visually evident" symptom (subclinic condition).
    should be gone by summer I hope.

  23. #48
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Ah, it seems that Coronavirus loves kidney tissues too.
    Just reporting.

  24. #49
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    no real way to stop it, how many people can afford to self quarantine?
    (Meme removed)

  25. #50
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The regular flue has a seasonal element. People tend to get the flue in Autumn and Winter. By the time Spring arrives, the flue wave seems to go away. And pop up again in October or so. Does this apply to the Corona virus as well ? If so, we can expect the spreading to slow down in a month or so. And pop back up in October. We then have 7 months to find a cure, develop a vaccin, or find a way to make the symptoms less deadly.
    We just don't know yet. There is some reason to think its spread might slow down significantly, because that's what happens to some of the other similar viruses, but it's not something you can count on. A delay would of course be good, not because we'd have a vaccine ready by then -- that's extremely unlikely -- but because it would give more time to prepare and gather equipment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Outside China, the outbreak must be mostly among rich people. Because poor people don't fly to China (for business or for pleasure). What happens when the Corona virus spreads among the poor ? Homeless people ? People living in institutions (for the elderly, for the mentally ill, handicapped, prisons). In the US poor people have less or no health care, are they gonna see a doctor or even admit that they might have the corona virus ?
    Well, not if they are going to have to pay thousands of dollars for testing, that's for sure: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240476806.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Personally I don't think this can be contained. Too bad. 2% of the the population is gonna die. Is it 2% ? The Chinese have given unreliable numbers. In Italy, the latest number I can find is: 2036 cases, 52 deaths. That's 2.5%. But not everyone of those (2036 - 52) has recovered yet. So the death-rate might be higher. 3% or maybe 4% even ?
    We don't know yet. There's not enough data. For example, it might be that there are a large number of infected who show no symptoms and therefore the survival rate is much higher. And obviously it largely depends on the region -- what kind of care sick people are able to get. Also, the Spanish Flu had initially a far better survival rate first time around, more resembling an ordinary flu, but then came back later as a far more virulent strain.

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