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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #626
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
    I got curious and did some maths.

    Input: starting at 1000 infected. unchanging spread ratio of 1.25 (ie. your government and people completely refuse to do anything to stop it at every stage of the crisis - completely absurd, but lets go with it) - that number seems to hold true everywhere that has stable numbers to give and matches my own calculations (note: 1.25^3 ~= 2, ie. doubling every 3 days). population 40M. average sick time of ~10 days. cannot infect who is already infected, dead or recovered - exceptions assumed to be negligent.

    Result: 25M can never be reached. not in 8 weeks, nor in 800 years. It caps at 20.4M in the middle of the last week out of 8 and starts to wane quickly after that.

    All that is just what (my potentially broken) math says - the country would unfortunately collapse before that. In short, 1.25 is terrible from math only (which is unlikely to correctly translate to real world).

    edit: oh, wait - i am referencing the wrong cell ... recalculating ...

  2. #627
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Just for reference, these are the numbers from the overviews (of Lombaria, 10M people) that Lowenz posts here regularly
    LombarDia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombards


  3. #628
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the level of stupid in Murika is too damn high
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...0t3KGX3FxKRXpQ

  4. #629
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2005
    Location: Netherlands
    This type of crisis brings out the best in some people and simultaneously the worst in others.

  5. #630
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    edit: oh, wait - i am referencing the wrong cell ... recalculating ...
    And open office crashed - apparently pasting sheets is some kind of dangerous black magic. Was about to abandon it, but the backup was just barely fresh enough to try again ...

    Wrong cell was: i was using current total case count instead of active cases for spread proxy. Ie, i was overestimating (won't make a difference early on, but obviously makes a big difference later).

    New numbers for the insane scenario: the peak would be 17.4M sick in the middle of week 9.

  6. #631
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    https://www.adnkronos.com/salute/far...PyzRzQ6IO.html

    Google translate

    Emerging evidence - Pope John and Eusa recall - suggests that the exacerbation of IL-6 cytokine production is associated with the severity of Covid-19-related lung disease associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Therefore, targeted action directly on this cytokine could improve clinical outcomes in these patients with critically ill disease. The trial aims to provide "important data to inform future clinical studies, which are being discussed, to further investigate the efficacy of siltuximab in patients with Covid-19 who develop severe respiratory complications". Initial data are expected by the end of March.

  7. #632
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    +381 deaths only here in Lombardy today.

    It's simply a MONSTER.
    Really I can't even describe it. Only in ONE region (with the best health care) in ONE day.

    And of course every death is a new bed in ICU already taken.
    So today we are @+381+44 new entries = +425 new patients in ICU
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Mar 2020 at 14:22.

  8. #633
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    It caps at 20.4M in the middle of the last week out of 8 and starts to wane quickly after that.
    I'm not sure why you think it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
    Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
    Sure. The simple calculation that I did calculates how many people get ill in total. Infected on that day, or have been infected and recovered.
    If you assume people are ill (and contagious) for 2-3 weeks, and then recover, and are not contagious anymore, then that number starts to slow down as soon as the first people recover. True.
    But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.

    But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 20th Mar 2020 at 13:54.

  9. #634
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    LombarDia
    Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
    After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.

    In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
    We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
    I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k


  10. #635
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
    After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.

    In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
    We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
    I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k

    LOL

  11. #636
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I'm not sure why it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
    Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
    Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
    Yeah .

    ------------------
    Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.

    P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
    A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)

    Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).

    This disease alone is way past that total every day .

  12. #637
    I wonder if in the aftermath of this thing, if he U.S. will go overboard (debatable?) like they did after 9/11, and create all sorts of new "Departments of" and task forces/committees and install new overly strict regulations to combat the next time this happens.

  13. #638
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.
    Oh, forgot to address that part.

    Pre-existing immunity (immune system has seen something close enough and is able to stop it before the disease even develops) and what-not (ie. whatever other causes there could be) are embedded in the "average sick time of 10 days" assumption i noted (which is obviously, at this time, pulled straight out of my ass - but sounds reasonable as an average). So, 0-days-total "infected" persons are, by average, still dangerous for the whole 10 days.

    That way in math i can assume that 100% will get infected (whether they actually manage to "infect" anyone else while being "infected" is already part of the spread rate).

  14. #639
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Well over here and in the US at least, many people have started self isolating for the next month (except for when they need supplies).
    New York and California are now enforcing mandatory isolation, but where I'm at, people are barely doing shit. The schools have shut down, but everything else is still going on about same as usual.

    Anyone else thinking that the next great depression is about to hit? When this thing is said and done, the economic cost is going to be HUGE.
    I'm gonna say probably not, but I won't say it can't happen. A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.

  15. #640
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.

    Yeah .

    ------------------
    Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.

    P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
    A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)

    Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).

    This disease alone is way past that total every day .
    And they aren't counting the deaths in the homes for the elderly simply because there's no test/autopsy done!
    So we're already over 400/450 per day

  16. #641
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    New York and California are now enforcing mandatory isolation, but where I'm at, people are barely doing shit. The schools have shut down, but everything else is still going on about same as usual.



    I'm gonna say probably not, but I won't say it can't happen. A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.
    not "enforced" yet, there are no cops making sure you stay home and every business I drove by was open, I am betting they will all stay open until cops do indeed show up to shut them down as nobody can afford to stay home and try to collect unemployment.

  17. #642
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    Things just got real at the retail store where I work part-time. Some customer broke the covers for the toilet paper dispensers in every single stall and stole the toilet paper out of both the men's & women's restrooms. The soft packs of liquid hand soap were also stolen out of the dispensers at each sink in both restrooms, too. I don't like the way this is escalating; here in our county there've only been 4 confirmed CV-19 cases so far; I don't even want to think about wtf will happen when those numbers start climbing.

  18. #643
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    not "enforced" yet, there are no cops making sure you stay home and every business I drove by was open, I am betting they will all stay open until cops do indeed show up to shut them down as nobody can afford to stay home and try to collect unemployment.
    Give it time. Once the cases start piling up, and the hospitals start filling, that's when people will start taking this seriously.

  19. #644
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Dia View Post
    Some customer broke the covers for the toilet paper dispensers in every single stall and stole the toilet paper out of both the men's & women's restrooms.
    That's been happening here, too. Groceries are closing their public restrooms in response.

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.
    Well, the various Republicans want to save their own asses, so we've got that going for us.

  20. #645
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    It seems that Atalanta (soccer team of Bergamo) vs Valencia match is the culprit for our out-of-the-sky numbers here......hundred of people got infected there and did spread the virus some days after......

  21. #646
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Well, the various Republicans want to save their own asses, so we've got that going for us.
    When their jobs and fortunes are on the line, you can just about guarantee that our politicians will go out of their way to do the right thing.

    So hey, democracy does work!

  22. #647
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Give it time. Once the cases start piling up, and the hospitals start filling, that's when people will start taking this seriously.
    our CO already made the letter that should keep us working, we are also working with the state to get a certified letter in the matter.

    https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a...odgZWZ83mGR7S4
    The nation’s second-largest municipal health system has told its staff that it is essentially abandoning hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak and instructed doctors not to bother testing symptomatic patients if a positive result won’t change how they would be treated.

    The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services to its doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus.

    The department “is shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality,” according to the letter. Doctors should test symptomatic patients only when “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

    The guidance sets in writing what has been a reality all along. The shortage of tests nationwide has meant that many patients suspected of having COVID-19 have not had the diagnosis confirmed by a laboratory.
    it appears we are about to brace for the worst and the weekend thieves are starting to pop up.

  23. #648
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    I wonder if in the aftermath of this thing, if he U.S. will go overboard (debatable?) like they did after 9/11, and create all sorts of new "Departments of" and task forces/committees and install new overly strict regulations to combat the next time this happens.
    Depends on the election result.

  24. #649
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Eughghghghg. Gonna be about goddamn tragic.

  25. #650
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    this can be interpreted as good news by some
    https://www.fox5ny.com/news/35-nypd-...3YAFhJT5Awe1jg
    less cops out there means you really are on you damn own, now you need to worry about criminals.

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