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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #626
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    I said coronavirusES

    Cold coronavirus doesn't wake up your immune system, the infection simply runs dry before the immune response get up but you got the so-called "cold" as an effect of the nasal mucosa inflammation!
    A very similar behaviour can affect SARS2 / Covid-19 coronavirus, the lethal effect is the interstitial pneumonia and you got kill (severe case) BEFORE the immune system can do anything.
    Or maybe the infection is already solved but the pneumonia still affects you lungs 'cause is more related to the body reaction than to the virus "proper" activity itself.

    Why tell me that the immune system wakes up in the not severe cases where the infection does not represent a danger cause it can't induce the pneumonia so there's NO serious desease to cure? It'a tautological.

  2. #627
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    The governor of California has ordered everybody in California to stay the fuck home.
    Not sure what the details are, and what the legal details are. But he's serious.

    It also seems that the Americans have accepted the fact that within 2 months, the number of infected in California will go from < 1000 infected now to 25 million infected. (FYI, California has 40M people).


    Nothing to see here, people. It's just the flu.
    Hoax and distraction by the libtards to make Trump look bad.
    It will blow over soon.

  3. #628
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's weird. I hear all these talks about Russian trolls, and bot accounts spamming news sites on Facebook with links to sway impressionable people, but I've always thought it was a little overexaggerated.

    ...but with this outbreak, I've been seeing some really weird people saying some really weird things in casual conversations that come across less like how real people talk, and more like how Vae comes across.

    Like in this one article posted by one of my local news channels about the situation in Italy, and all these people came in, slamming it as fake news, that Italy had terrible healthcare with dirty hospitals, and whatnot. The weirdest one was this lady talking about her vacation there, and how the tour guides all slammed their healthcare system. She said she wanted to visit the country, know their trials and tribulations, experience their socialist way of life for herself.

    ...WHO THE FUCK TALKS LIKE THAT?

  4. #629
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    First confirmed case in my county today.

    I think I'll disinfect my throat with some Jack now.

  5. #630
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    ...WHO THE FUCK TALKS LIKE THAT?
    You mean besides Vae, T_T, jkcerda, etc.?

  6. #631
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Vae and TT, yes. But they're not regular people.

    JK just trolls us.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tocky View Post
    I think I'll disinfect my throat with some Jack now.
    I'm short on booze at the moment. Got some cooking wine though!

  7. #632
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    And then there are reports like this:
    https://orthomolecular.activehosted....91130d6b6.148&

    That's 50 *grams* of vitamin C in 4 hours.
    Look, it's not that I automatically dismiss the reports of C-vitamin megadoses being super useful for combating all kinds of disease by *checks notes* orthomolecular medicine proponents, it's just that I believe evidence-based medicine over anecdotal reports from alternative medicine practitioners. Maybe huge doses of vitamin this and that could really be useful in treating something, who knows. But despite all those hopeful anecdotes and claims, at least so far, it doesn't seem to be the case for cancers, AIDS, or even the common cold: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11700812

    Also, while 50 grams of vitamin C won't kill you, because our bodies cannot store it and it's going to be flushed out, that doesn't mean it's good for you. High doses of vitamin C have been reliably associated with several unpleasant side effects like indigestion and kidney stones and in rare cases even some very dangerous ones like iron overload (though it does seem to require an underlying condition that increases iron absorption for it to occur).

  8. #633
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    From what I've read, Vitamin C will keep you from getting scurvy, and may boost your immune system enough to help you fight off a light fever during hay season, but it's not gonna do much else beyond that. All claims of its miraculous properties have thus far failed to pan out when put under scrutiny.

  9. #634
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2010
    Location: A Former Forest
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    ...
    I'm short on booze at the moment. Got some cooking wine though!
    Cooking wine can be full of salt sometimes. Be careful. As for “who talks like that?” post you had earlier... people who don't speak English as a first language and are trying to seed weeds into our garden. Ignore them.

    Best of health to everyone. Best of luck. I sincerely wish you all well. I hope your lives will remain whole and prosperous. I hope your governments will do the right thing, whatever that may be. There has been some recent good news. There has been some recent bad news. Neither balance out each other, nor should they.

    My advice is to play some old FMs you haven’t played in years. Or catch some old flicks on the boob tube (for non-US people, this is just a slang for TV, but you probably already know this... sorry)

    Don’t dwell too much on this virus. It will drive you crazy, as with all problems in life. It will pass, not without sorrowful consequences, but it will pass.

  10. #635
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by bjack View Post
    My advice is to play some old FMs you haven’t played in years.
    For some reason, this made me think of someone.

    Has anyone checked on Zylonbane?

  11. #636
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2010
    Location: A Former Forest
    IDK, but wasn’t a recent post by Zylon posted a day ago? I hope my silly post here will make Zylon Bane post, in order to prove existence.

  12. #637
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by bjack View Post

    Don’t dwell too much on this virus. It will drive you crazy, as with all problems in life. It will pass, not without sorrowful consequences, but it will pass.
    No, dwell on it. You actions in the next few weeks and months could save a life or 1000, or your own.

    I never got SARS, MERS, H1N1 and don't intend to get this. I suggest you all structure your lives so you don't get this either.

    Also; where IS Zylonbane? He's in the USA, right?

  13. #638
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Another route, another interpretation of this phenomenon:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...pandemic?rss=1

    The fact that antibodies to NL63 don’t also react to SARS-CoV-2 proteins is encouraging for another reason, he adds. Some viral diseases, such as dengue, can cause more serious symptoms if a person has been previously exposed to a related strain of the virus and already has partial immunity. Existing antibodies can react to the related invader and trigger a dangerous overreaction, a phenomenon known as an antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). Some researchers have suggested ADE might explain why the virus is more deadly in the elderly and less so in children, who have had less exposure to other coronaviruses.
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Mar 2020 at 06:38.

  14. #639
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Encountered some similar explanation some time ago - don't quite remember. Was something like: body sufficiently recognizes similar invader from previous experience and ramps up antibody production for it. However, the antibodies will be much less efficient due to not matching as good as they can. Essentially, the body fights the "wrong" virus and robs resources from creating better matching antibodies. Per the rules of natural selection - over time - the better matching antibodies will take over the fight. However, that shit takes extra time.

  15. #640
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The governor of California has ordered everybody in California to stay the fuck home.
    It also seems that the Americans have accepted the fact that within 2 months, the number of infected in California will go from < 1000 infected now to 25 million infected. (FYI, California has 40M people).
    Well, that governor specifically said that he thought ~56% of all California residents would get the virus within the next 8 weeks. I don't understand where he's getting his numbers from, because that type of infection rate is nowhere near how it is anywhere else in the world.

    China has 80,000 cases total, but they have 1.4 billion people. This guy is talking about 20 million cases in California alone. Some type of explanation behind those numbers would have been nice, because they don't appear to make sense.

    Also - why does anyone give a fuck about Zylonbane? Because he certainly doesn't care about you.

  16. #641
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Look, it's not that I automatically dismiss the reports of C-vitamin megadoses being super useful for combating all kinds of disease by *checks notes* orthomolecular medicine proponents, it's just that I believe evidence-based medicine over anecdotal reports from alternative medicine practitioners. Maybe huge doses of vitamin this and that could really be useful in treating something, who knows.
    You are right.
    Just a few hours after I posted this link, I saw some posts that suggested this article was fake/non-sense/wrong.
    Unfortunately, a while later I couldn't find those posts anymore. So I decided to not bother and do a follow-up here.
    Sorry.

  17. #642
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    Well, that governor specifically said that he thought ~56% of all California residents would get the virus within the next 8 weeks. I don't understand where he's getting his numbers from, because that type of infection rate is nowhere near how it is anywhere else in the world.

    China has 80,000 cases total, but they have 1.4 billion people. This guy is talking about 20 million cases in California alone. Some type of explanation behind those numbers would have been nice, because they don't appear to make sense.
    As I wrote before, most people don't understand what exponential growth really means.
    One example is that if something grows 1% per year, that's still exponential growth.

    But let's look at this example.
    Governor talks about growing from 1000 to 20 million in 2 months. Can that happen ?

    The number I've been using myself is doubling of the number of infected every 3 days.
    It's hard to check precisely. Because the number of infected heavily depends on the number of tests done.
    And once the number of infected grows beyond a small number, there aren't enough tests anymore. And (relatively) fewer people get tested. And the grow will seem to slow down. For a short while. Because after that the exponential grow will continue as before.
    But let's continue using that number: doubling every 3 days.

    Anyone else familiar with binary math ? It comes natural to me, because I've used it a lot in my work.
    1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192.
    So after 10 doublings, the number goes from 1 to 1024. Let's make that 1 thousand.
    If the number of infections doubles every 3 days, that means after 30 days, the number of infections will have gone up by 1000 times.
    Let that sink in.
    So if California has 1000 infected today, after 30 days, it will be 1 million infected.
    Now another factor of exponential growth most people don't realize. Growth at the start of the curve seems fast. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. Those numbers are impressive, but they are comprehensible. But when you look at the numbers later on, those numbers will be staggering.
    If you have 1 million infected after 30 days, and the number doubles every 30 days, then after 60 days you will have 1 BILLION infected.
    After all 1000 x 1000 is 1 million. 1000 x 1 million is 1 billion.

    Of course the number of infected in California can't go to 1 billion.
    There aren't 1 billion people in California to begin with.
    But more importantly, the more people that are infected, the fewer people are not infected.
    And the harder it becomes for the virus to find people that have not been infected yet.
    When we approach the saturation point, growth will slow down.

    But anyway, my point is: when the rate doubles every 3 days, it's far from impossible to go from 1000 to 25 million in 2 months.


    This is assuming that the number "doubling every 3 days" stays constant.
    If it turns out that the virus starts doubling only once every 7 days, or once every 30 days, the growth will slow down.
    That's the plan. Do lockdowns, go in social isolation, find the infected earlier (more testing), everything to get that number down.
    If we wouldn't take any measures, and the number stays at doubling every 3 days, then you go from 1 to 1000 in 30 days, to 1m in 60 days and "everybody" (1B) in 90 days.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 20th Mar 2020 at 10:32.

  18. #643
    I understand the math, but I think you missed my point.

    I get the concept that something can spread exponentially. Of course it's possible. But so far, in the last 3 months since this started, it hasn't spread at that rate anywhere else. So why would it suddenly do so now?

    One argument that you could make is that China is locked down, and we aren't. So the situation is different. But the U.S. is slowly sinking into a state of self imposed lockdown anyway, so it's hard to see that thing would spread at the rate this guy is talking about.

    I certainly won't rule it out completely though.

  19. #644
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Actually, to change the subject. US seems to have ramped up testing a lot. Spread ratios (new cases today / new cases yesterday) for last three days are between 1.59 and 1.78 - which is WAY too high. Seems US is hell-bent to catch up with reality via testing (at least i hope that is the full explanation). Are there testing stats available for US anywhere? Currently, US is at 42.1 cases per 1M (Italy was at that level of spread on 3-March [41.4]) - based on the bonkers spread ratio for US currently however, i think that estimate needs to be adjusted by a few days. Still, quite a long way behind situation in Italy with plenty of time to adapt - i hope. One extra giant petri dish for the virus to mutate in is bad news for everyone. There already are 729 distinct genomes known of this thing.

    Also, Italy, is there some testing being ramped up too? Spread ratio has been "stable" 1.25 for a very long time and started to wane a week or so ago (consistently at or below 1.16, sometimes even below 1.0 [ie. the point where the virus would die out on its own if ratio is kept]) - however, lately, the ratio seems to go up again ... 1.19 ... 1.26. More testing or what? New outbreaks in other regions of Italy?

  20. #645
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by Brethren View Post
    But so far, in the last 3 months since this started, it hasn't spread at that rate anywhere else. So why would it suddenly do so now?
    The first case in NL was reported 27 February. That's 22 days ago. Divided by 3, that means the number of infected could have doubled 7 times. 2^7 = 128. So we should be around 200 infected today ? In reality, we are at 3000 in NL today.

    My village. First infection was Monday 10 March. That's 10 days ago. 2 ^ 3 = 8. We should have ~10 cases today. In reality we have 20 infected in my village today.

    So here in NL, I see the numbers growing faster than doubling every 3 days.
    I think 1-2 weeks ago, we had a comparable number of infections (total, not per 1000) as in the US. I think the US has overtaken us in absolutely numbers ? So doubling in the US must be even faster than 1 doubling per 3 days.

    One argument that you could make is that China is locked down, and we aren't. So the situation is different. But the U.S. is slowly sinking into a state of self imposed lockdown anyway, so it's hard to see that thing would spread at the rate this guy is talking about.
    He might take the number of 25M from the case where the US (or California) is not doing a real lockdown.
    Or he is assuming that even a lockdown won't be effective enough, because a large number of Americans are self-entitled arseholes.

    For reference, I don't want to slam yanks (even though I love doing that. ). We got loads of self-entitled arseholes in NL too. Our government doesn't want to do a real lockdown (like in Italy, Spain and France). We are just "encouraged" to minimize social contact. This is not effective. Many people continue doing what they're doing. Luckily a lot of companies and organizations do take the crisis more serious than our government, and shutdown stuff themselves. But so far, the numbers keep doubing at alarming rates.


    2-3 Weeks ago, I learned we have 1150 beds in ICUs in NL.
    I did some basic math (like I did in my previous post). We had 50 people in ICU at the time.
    My prediction was that beds in ICU in all of NL would be full by end of March.
    Yesterday our hospitals warned that they expect all beds in ICUs to be full by end of next week (March 27th).
    So I wasn't off very much with my simple math.
    Too bad I can't find that post anymore. (Maybe I didn't post it anywhere after all).
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 20th Mar 2020 at 10:56.

  21. #646
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NAChrista...89935557865472

    Nicholas A. Christakis
    @NAChristakis
    “Seroconversion" in 173 patients appeared for Ab, IgM, & IgG in 11, 12, & 14 days. Presence of antibodies was <40% in first 7d & then rapidly increased to 100%, 94%, & 80% for Ab, IgM, & IgG by 15d. In contrast, viral RNA decreased from 67% before day 7 to 46% in days 15-39. 23/


    But as I said you die the first week of interstitial pneumonia if the infection (the expression of the infection) is severe.
    So tipically immune system is too late in patients with a bad inflammation response that kills them.
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Mar 2020 at 11:00.

  22. #647
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Alas, as an aside, the decline in titers also means that developing a vaccine for COVID19 may be very challenging, similar to the reasons we do not yet have a vaccine for the common cold (but that is the topic for another thread).

  23. #648
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The first case in NL was reported 27 February. That's 22 days ago. Divided by 3, that means the number of infected could have doubled 7 times. 2^7 = 128. So we should be around 200 infected today ? In reality, we are at 3000 in NL today.

    So here in NL, I see the numbers growing faster than doubling every 3 days.
    Detected case count != real infection count. Especially early. Detection can only asymptotically approach the real count. Excessive testing will get it closer and closer but never actually reaching the true value.

    You just had a lot of infected walking around without knowing they are infected.

    Which is why i asked for testing stats for US a few moments ago. Without that, the case count stats etc are quite useless.

  24. #649
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Of course. We got a bunch of numbers, but we don't know exactly what they mean.
    That's why I said (a few times): "simple math".
    My simple math is just "wild guestimates".
    If anyone has numbers that are more precise, I'm happy to hear them.

    But even with those vague numbers, my prediction about ICU beds full in NL is gonna be pretty close.
    That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
    If we assume that there are loads of infected that haven't been detected yet (as you correctly mentioned), then those 8 weeks can be even shorter.

  25. #650
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The governor of California has ordered everybody in California to stay the fuck home.
    Not sure what the details are, and what the legal details are. But he's serious.

    It also seems that the Americans have accepted the fact that within 2 months, the number of infected in California will go from < 1000 infected now to 25 million infected. (FYI, California has 40M people).


    Nothing to see here, people. It's just the flu.
    Hoax and distraction by the libtards to make Trump look bad.
    It will blow over soon.
    it's an amazing level of stupid here to a degree, so we are on "lock down" but you can go to the grocery store, walk your dog & go to the laundromat etc, "non essential: businesses are shut down but they have no real way to enforce it.

    https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors

    everyone on FB seems to be looking for ways around it SHOULD the cops show up, I am lucky my CO falls under the critical manufacturing sector. but then again IF they start using cock sucking cops to try and enforce this those knuckle draggers don't know what it means. .....

    personally I think they are trying to stem the looting that is bound to happen as things get worse in the coming weeks. GOV Newson mentioned 1k fines but cops are not enforcing it yet so WTF?

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