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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #651
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Of course. We got a bunch of numbers, but we don't know exactly what they mean.
    That's why I said (a few times): "simple math".
    My simple math is just "wild guestimates".
    If anyone has numbers that are more precise, I'm happy to hear them.

    But even with those vague numbers, my prediction about ICU beds full in NL is gonna be pretty close.
    That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
    If we assume that there are loads of infected that haven't been detected yet (as you correctly mentioned), then those 8 weeks can be even shorter.
    I think it is blown way out of proportion to scare people into staying home, look at the morons in FL all there to "party" not giving a shit in the world? being infected does NOT mean you end up in ICU, there are 1000's seemingly infected with very mild symptoms.

  2. #652
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the thing that could cripple the US HC system is the 120 million cock sucking POS LAWYERS willing to sue because the sky is blue, if DR's turn oxygen thieves away they will face lawsuits because sadly Murika is full of POS M'fers willing to sue over anything that they think will get them some cash & there are a gazillion POS lawyers willing to file suits. 95% of lawyers belong in the bottom of the ocean along with the dip shits they represent.

  3. #653
    Previously Important
    Registered: Nov 1999
    Location: Caer Weasel, Uelekevu
    $10 says none of us can actually picture as few as 10 dead bodies in the same room, maybe not that honest to act like a blasť edgelord about hundreds or more.

  4. #654
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    I watch the walking dead, so I can picture it

  5. #655
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    Detected case count != real infection count. Especially early. Detection can only asymptotically approach the real count. Excessive testing will get it closer and closer but never actually reaching the true value.

    You just had a lot of infected walking around without knowing they are infected.

    Which is why i asked for testing stats for US a few moments ago. Without that, the case count stats etc are quite useless.
    Question: what if what we call "asymptotics" are in reality the CHRONICALLY affected ones by the subclinical expression of the infection?
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Mar 2020 at 12:14.

  6. #656
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Question: what if what we call "asymptotics" are in reality the CHRONICALLY affected ones by the subclinic expression of the infection?
    Sorry, my English fails there, i do not understand the question.

  7. #657
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    Sorry, my English fails there, i do not understand the question.
    Pardon, a typo.
    This scenario:

    "Asymptomatics patients" = "Chronically affected patients with the subclinical expression of the infection"

  8. #658
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Just for reference, these are the numbers from the overviews (of Lombardia, 10M people) that Lowenz posts here regularly:

    Date: March 2 versus March 19 (17 days difference)
    Infected: 1254 -> 19884 (15.9x)
    Recovered: 139 -> 3778 (27.2x)
    Dead: 38 -> 2168 (57x)
    Hospitalized: 478 -> 7387 (15.5x)
    Hospitalized in ICU: 127 -> 1006 (7.9x)
    At home, in quarantine: 472 -> 5545 (11.7x)
    Currently infected: 1077 -> 13938 (12.9x)
    Total number of tests done: 7925 -> 52244 (6.6x)
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 20th Mar 2020 at 13:40.

  9. #659
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
    I got curious and did some maths.

    Input: starting at 1000 infected. unchanging spread ratio of 1.25 (ie. your government and people completely refuse to do anything to stop it at every stage of the crisis - completely absurd, but lets go with it) - that number seems to hold true everywhere that has stable numbers to give and matches my own calculations (note: 1.25^3 ~= 2, ie. doubling every 3 days). population 40M. average sick time of ~10 days. cannot infect who is already infected, dead or recovered - exceptions assumed to be negligent.

    Result: 25M can never be reached. not in 8 weeks, nor in 800 years. It caps at 20.4M in the middle of the last week out of 8 and starts to wane quickly after that.

    All that is just what (my potentially broken) math says - the country would unfortunately collapse before that. In short, 1.25 is terrible from math only (which is unlikely to correctly translate to real world).

    edit: oh, wait - i am referencing the wrong cell ... recalculating ...

  10. #660
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Just for reference, these are the numbers from the overviews (of Lombaria, 10M people) that Lowenz posts here regularly
    LombarDia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombards


  11. #661
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the level of stupid in Murika is too damn high
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...0t3KGX3FxKRXpQ

  12. #662
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2005
    Location: Netherlands
    This type of crisis brings out the best in some people and simultaneously the worst in others.

  13. #663
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    edit: oh, wait - i am referencing the wrong cell ... recalculating ...
    And open office crashed - apparently pasting sheets is some kind of dangerous black magic. Was about to abandon it, but the backup was just barely fresh enough to try again ...

    Wrong cell was: i was using current total case count instead of active cases for spread proxy. Ie, i was overestimating (won't make a difference early on, but obviously makes a big difference later).

    New numbers for the insane scenario: the peak would be 17.4M sick in the middle of week 9.

  14. #664
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    https://www.adnkronos.com/salute/far...PyzRzQ6IO.html

    Google translate

    Emerging evidence - Pope John and Eusa recall - suggests that the exacerbation of IL-6 cytokine production is associated with the severity of Covid-19-related lung disease associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Therefore, targeted action directly on this cytokine could improve clinical outcomes in these patients with critically ill disease. The trial aims to provide "important data to inform future clinical studies, which are being discussed, to further investigate the efficacy of siltuximab in patients with Covid-19 who develop severe respiratory complications". Initial data are expected by the end of March.

  15. #665
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    +381 deaths only here in Lombardy today.

    It's simply a MONSTER.
    Really I can't even describe it. Only in ONE region (with the best health care) in ONE day.

    And of course every death is a new bed in ICU already taken.
    So today we are @+381+44 new entries = +425 new patients in ICU
    Last edited by lowenz; 20th Mar 2020 at 14:22.

  16. #666
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    It caps at 20.4M in the middle of the last week out of 8 and starts to wane quickly after that.
    I'm not sure why you think it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
    Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
    Sure. The simple calculation that I did calculates how many people get ill in total. Infected on that day, or have been infected and recovered.
    If you assume people are ill (and contagious) for 2-3 weeks, and then recover, and are not contagious anymore, then that number starts to slow down as soon as the first people recover. True.
    But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.

    But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 20th Mar 2020 at 13:54.

  17. #667
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    LombarDia
    Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
    After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.

    In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
    We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
    I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k


  18. #668
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    government and people completely refuse to do anything to stop it at every stage of the crisis - completely absurd, but lets go with it
    Well over here and in the US at least, many people have started self isolating for the next month (except for when they need supplies). The US is doing a little better as they have mandated that everyone self isolate, which beats our optional self isolation. Either way, the countries with higher rates of people self isolating should do far better. Less people outside = less new people getting infected, less new infections = lowering of the rate over time.

    There has been calls by worried parent groups to shutdown all the schools, which I think is a TERRIBLE idea. If all schools close what happens? All the parents quit their jobs. Economy then goes to shit, crime rate skyrockets (from all the kids getting bored and so going out and causing stuff).

    Anyone else thinking that the next great depression is about to hit? When this thing is said and done, the economic cost is going to be HUGE.

  19. #669
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
    After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.

    In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
    We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
    I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k

    LOL

  20. #670
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I'm not sure why it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
    Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
    Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
    Yeah .

    ------------------
    Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.

    P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
    A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)

    Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).

    This disease alone is way past that total every day .

  21. #671
    I wonder if in the aftermath of this thing, if he U.S. will go overboard (debatable?) like they did after 9/11, and create all sorts of new "Departments of" and task forces/committees and install new overly strict regulations to combat the next time this happens.

  22. #672
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.
    Oh, forgot to address that part.

    Pre-existing immunity (immune system has seen something close enough and is able to stop it before the disease even develops) and what-not (ie. whatever other causes there could be) are embedded in the "average sick time of 10 days" assumption i noted (which is obviously, at this time, pulled straight out of my ass - but sounds reasonable as an average). So, 0-days-total "infected" persons are, by average, still dangerous for the whole 10 days.

    That way in math i can assume that 100% will get infected (whether they actually manage to "infect" anyone else while being "infected" is already part of the spread rate).

  23. #673
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Well over here and in the US at least, many people have started self isolating for the next month (except for when they need supplies).
    New York and California are now enforcing mandatory isolation, but where I'm at, people are barely doing shit. The schools have shut down, but everything else is still going on about same as usual.

    Anyone else thinking that the next great depression is about to hit? When this thing is said and done, the economic cost is going to be HUGE.
    I'm gonna say probably not, but I won't say it can't happen. A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.

  24. #674
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.

    Yeah .

    ------------------
    Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.

    P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
    A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)

    Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).

    This disease alone is way past that total every day .
    And they aren't counting the deaths in the homes for the elderly simply because there's no test/autopsy done!
    So we're already over 400/450 per day

  25. #675
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    New York and California are now enforcing mandatory isolation, but where I'm at, people are barely doing shit. The schools have shut down, but everything else is still going on about same as usual.



    I'm gonna say probably not, but I won't say it can't happen. A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.
    not "enforced" yet, there are no cops making sure you stay home and every business I drove by was open, I am betting they will all stay open until cops do indeed show up to shut them down as nobody can afford to stay home and try to collect unemployment.

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