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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #876
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    So... If you read this article, a Japanese official seems to be indicating that the virus is rampant in Japan and they are just counting the deaths as pneumonia.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans...inst-covid-19/

    Quote Originally Posted by Asia Times
    Unspoken strategy

    Still, there are no reports of mass, secret burials. And an official at the ministry – speaking on condition of anonymity – offered Asia Times an unauthorized explanation of Japan’s approach.

    “We are in a period where containment is probably not realistic,” the official said. “We need to focus on treating the serious cases and most experts would quietly agree. If everyone is urged to get testing, then medical institutions will overflow with people who do not need to be there. This not only detracts from taking care of more critical cases, it could indirectly result in a greater health crisis.”

    While South Korea and other countries have established off-site, drive-thru test stations, that is not the case in Japan. But the official also made clear that hospitals can be dangerous places.

    “Please consider that people and patients would also be exposed to higher risks of infection in crowded hospitals and clinics – and secondary infections as well. How does this sound? ‘Come in for a coronavirus test and leave with the flu!’ Unnecessary spending on tests is a waste of government resources, time and fiscals reserves. There is no specific treatment for Covid-19 yet.”

    At a time when other countries are in a panicked lockdown, with virtually all economic activity suspended indefinitely, the official went to the crux of what may be Japan’s unspoken strategy.

    “Ask yourself, ‘What is the value of wisdom when it brings no benefit to those who are the wiser?’ Most of the infected will recover on their own, thanks to their own immune systems. We need to first take care of those whose immune systems are failing them, or the health care system itself will fail.”

    That appears to have kept the medical sector from being overwhelmed.

  2. #877
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Welp. Sounds like they're going to get hammered.

  3. #878
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Nicker View Post
    Good luck with that stuff, Renz. It has LIE right in the name.
    I've also got this sanitizer that's 63% alcohol. It's up to standards.

  4. #879
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    The Republican party always seemed a bit like a death cult to me, but I didn't realise that GOP stood for Grand Old Pandemic:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...al-dan-patrick

    As Donald Trump pushed to re-open the US economy in weeks, rather than months, the lieutenant governor of Texas went on Fox News to argue that he would rather die than see public health measures damage the US economy, and that he believed “lots of grandparents” across the country would agree with him.

    “My message: let’s get back to work, let’s get back to living, let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves,” Lt Gov Dan Patrick, a 69-year-old Republican, told Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Monday night.

    “Don’t sacrifice the country,” Patrick said. “Don’t do that.”

    Patrick said he feared that public health restrictions to prevent coronavirus could end American life as he knows it, and that he is willing to risk death to protect the economy for his grandchildren.
    [...]
    "I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than 3.4% killed, tops, uh, depending on the breaks."
    -- Sen. Ron Turgidson

    https://www.salon.com/2020/03/19/joh...ons-of-deaths/

    Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., appeared to suggest on Tuesday that he did not believe the American economy should be shut down despite the possibility of millions of deaths from the new coronavirus.

    "I'm not denying what a nasty disease COVID-19 can be and how it's obviously devastating to somewhere between 1 and 3.4 percent of the population," Johnson told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel in an article published Wednesday.

    He added, "But that means 97 to 99 percent will get through this and develop immunities and will be able to move beyond this. But we don't shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways. It's a risk we accept so we can move about. We don't shut down our economies because tens of thousands of people die from the common flu."

    Despite acknowledging that the coronavirus was deadlier than the flu, Johnson argued that "getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population, (and) I think probably far less."
    [...]
    Last edited by Starker; 25th Mar 2020 at 08:01.

  5. #880
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's like they're so desperate to keep from looking bad for the election, they're willing to go to any lengths to save face, up to and including putting millions of Americans at risk.

    The economy will repair itself within a year or two. The damage we'll see waiting this thing out in no way represents an existential threat to the United States. We've got a few months of suck ahead of us, but we'll get through it, and we'll recover. There's no reason to panic over this other than for base politics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    "But I do say no more than 3.4% killed, tops, uh, depending on the breaks."
    Yeah, and if we all just "put on a brave face" and head back to work as usual, we'll likely see the infection rate rise to flu like levels. That measly 2-3.5% will equate to around 2 million directly killed by the virus if it infects 60 million people, and will likely end up being even larger if you include all the indirect casualities that'll occur due to our hospitals being overwhelmed, and left unable to care for its usual traffic.

    If it goes all out, and infects that many, you're looking at about twice as many Americans dying than what we lost in WWI, WWII, Vietnam, Desert Storm, and the War on Terror combined. When the numbers get big enough, even the fractions are huge.

    Also, you won't have 97% recovery rate. It'll be more around 80%. It's not a stretch to assume we'll see 10% of those survivors left with lasting lung damage, leading to them possibly being put on disability, which'll strain our economy even more.

    No matter how you cut it, shutting everything down for a couple-three months is not only the more humane option, but also the more cost effective in the long term.
    Last edited by Renzatic; 25th Mar 2020 at 03:14.

  6. #881
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2001
    Location: Switzerland
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    The economy will repair itself within a year or two. The damage we'll see waiting this thing out in no way represents an existential threat to the United States. We've got a few months of suck ahead of us, but we'll get through it, and we'll recover. There's no reason to panic over this other than for base politics.
    I think that's a bit too simple, though. Economically, this will prove to be an existential threat to some, and more so in those countries where there's less of a social safety net. If you don't have job security, if you haven't got savings stashed away, this is massively scary. "We" will get through it and "we" will recover, but a lot of individuals making up that "we" may not be so lucky.

    Edit: I absolutely agree with you that some level of shut-down is not only essential, it'll also do less economic damage than some stupid soldiering on, but there will be victims apart from the whole health dimension, and more so in a country like the US, I suspect.
    Last edited by Thirith; 25th Mar 2020 at 03:26.

  7. #882
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    See why the welfare is important?
    You can prevent wars (with other wars, sigh) but you can't prevent the action of a new aerial hyper-contagious virus that can use your own life-saving drugs to reach for every body corner.

    You are not getting a viral pneumonia AND the killer interstitial reaction of your own body? You'll get a nice&classic encephalitis or nephropathy thanks to the synergy with the (life-saving) drugs.
    Last edited by lowenz; 25th Mar 2020 at 03:24.

  8. #883
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Oh, and if you think I'm exaggerating when I state that this virus could claim more lives than all our recent wars, here's the tally of all US deaths in the most memorable wars of the last 100 years.

    World War I: 115,000 dead
    World War II: 400,000 dead
    Korean War: 35,000 dead
    Vietnam: 60,000 dead
    Desert Storm: 300 dead
    Iraq II: 5,000 dead
    Afganistan: 3000 dead

    Total: 618,000 dead Americans.

    Projected Coronavirus death toll if we drop the quarantine, and let it infect ~20% of the population, and it ends up killing 1-3.5% of those numbers: 600,000 to 2,100,000

    ...so it's either matches, or claims 4x the amount of Americans who died in all the big foreign wars of the last 100 years, depending on how the dice roll.
    Last edited by Renzatic; 25th Mar 2020 at 03:38.

  9. #884
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Thirith View Post
    I think that's a bit too simple, though. Economically, this will prove to be an existential threat to some, and more so in those countries where there's less of a social safety net. If you don't have job security, if you haven't got savings stashed away, this is massively scary. "We" will get through it and "we" will recover, but a lot of individuals making up that "we" may not be so lucky.
    It's gonna be ugly. There's no doubt about that. There will be a lot of people who suffer from the fallout of all this.

    But we have some control over how ugly it gets. We need to keep our heads level, and give it a steady, responsible response.

  10. #885
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Last edited by Renzatic; 25th Mar 2020 at 03:53.

  11. #886
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Oh, and if you think I'm exaggerating when I state that this virus could claim more lives than all our recent wars, here's the tally of all US deaths in the most memorable wars of the last 100 years.

    World War I: 115,000 dead
    World War II: 400,000 dead
    Korean War: 35,000 dead
    Vietnam: 60,000 dead
    Desert Storm: 300 dead
    Iraq II: 5,000 dead
    Afganistan: 3000 dead

    Total: 618,000 dead Americans.

    Projected Coronavirus death toll if we drop the quarantine, and let it infect ~20% of the population, and it ends up killing 1-3.5% of those numbers: 600,000 to 2,100,000

    ...so it's either matches, or claims 4x the amount of Americans who died in all the big foreign wars of the last 100 years, depending on how the dice roll.
    No tests (on the bodies), no coronadeaths -> IT'S A FAKE GUYS, OPEN YOUR DAMN EYESS55555!!!1111111

  12. #887
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    You are not getting a viral pneumonia AND the killer interstitial reaction of your own body? You'll get a nice&classic encephalitis or nephropathy thanks to the synergy with the (life-saving) drugs.
    You keep posting this stuff.

    Are you a scientist with some authority on this? If not, please don't post this stuff. Some of your assertions are quite un-scientific and I don't really see the point unless you are imparting real and useful information. You posts about ACE for example - is this proven yet? Afaik it's just one of many, many theories and it sounds woooo scaaaaary so it gets hyped by the usual hype-crew.

    You input otherwise is great, so please don't be part of the hype-crew.

  13. #888
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    OK finished shift 3/5 today at my local supermarket. It was... Nice. Restrictions on the number of people allowed in at any time meant people were not rushing around. We had lots of TP on site, bread was in stock and the freezers had food as well. We got into lockdown just over an hour from this post.

    Luckily right now, I'm classed as essential so I can walk out and down the road to my local bus stop.

  14. #889
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    You keep posting this stuff.

    Are you a scientist with some authority on this? If not, please don't post this stuff. Some of your assertions are quite un-scientific and I don't really see the point unless you are imparting real and useful information. You posts about ACE for example - is this proven yet? Afaik it's just one of many, many theories and it sounds woooo scaaaaary so it gets hyped by the usual hype-crew.

    You input otherwise is great, so please don't be part of the hype-crew.
    You can find everywhere this info

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0323101354.htm

  15. #890
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    New Zealand is officially in lockdown for at least 4 weeks.

  16. #891
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by bob_doe_nz View Post
    New Zealand is officially in lockdown for at least 4 weeks.
    And it's good.

  17. #892
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Remember the numbers you see now are about 2 weeks delayed from when people got it. When the lockdown starts means the cases starting from two weeks back will still be coming in. The peak and drop will actually start from then, but you'll see the largest increase in cases discovered in the two weeks after it starts, and then you see the peak and drop from that two weeks later over the next however many weeks. I've seen some graphs out there show how it looks. Basically you take the sharp parabola, copy it, and move it back in the grid 2 weeks, and then you can imagine how the overlap looks (the left one being case start dates, the right one case discovery dates).

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Welp. Sounds like they're going to get hammered.
    (They being Japan.)
    Something doesn't add up. I'm ready to believe the government is fudging the numbers and even labeling corona deaths as pneumonia. I researched their response to Fukushima where they fudged numbers like the number of displaced with clever re-definitions, and the official government line is pneumonia deaths will be reported, as usual, in the government's triannual report on it three years from now, which is definitely a fishy reply. But, while my imagination may be failing me (it's happened before), I can't imagine they could hide overruns in hospitals, or masses of very sick people being turned away or taken in and the families wonder "What's happening to my granddad and great aunt Yumiko once they got into the hospital? They sure looked like they had it", or the burials, etc., not at the scale it's supposed to be at if it were following the pattern of other countries.
    Last edited by demagogue; 25th Mar 2020 at 08:03.

  18. #893
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Hmm... don't the serious cases take a lot longer than 2 weeks, though? Not like the ICUs are just going to get unclogged just like that.

  19. #894
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Hmm... don't the serious cases take a lot longer than 2 weeks, though?
    That would depend on the person and the variables involved wouldn't it?

  20. #895
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Sure, but it's the serious cases in combination with the lack of resources that cause the most deaths.

  21. #896
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Is there anywhere where that's actually worked? Not heard of any reductions in numbers in any of the countries where lockdowns have been put into affect. Italy's been on lockdown for a few weeks now, and the numbers of infected and deaths continues to go up.
    In Bergamo/Lombardy deaths are NOT growing. Still they happen.
    I hope to see 100/150 deaths per day this saturnday/sunday.

  22. #897
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    Up here in Wisconsin our Governor Tony Evers issued a statement yesterday ordering 'Wisconsinites to stay at home, (and stating that he) will close non-essential businesses' and I say KUDOS, SIR!!! Recent studies have already shown that when there is a 'stay at home' order in place (and people adhere to that order), the number of cases of the CV-19 virus has started to drop in those areas. So I earnestly and honestly hope more governors conscientiously ignore that fat, orange dumb fuck in the White House and put the safety and health of the residents of their respective states first and foremost.

    https://www.postcrescent.com/story/n...er/2897821001/

    Meanwhile, we have the Talibangelicals who seem to think that prayer is a cure-all. God save us from fools and madmen. And from Bible-thumpers, ffs. *smh*

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/colleges-...223007720.html

  23. #898
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Hmm... don't the serious cases take a lot longer than 2 weeks, though? Not like the ICUs are just going to get unclogged just like that.
    I mean the person goes to the hospital about 2 weeks after they've contracted the illness where it's actually counted. They could be in the hospital longer, but I'm talking about the number in the statistic of "new cases today". Put another way: the number you see in the statistic for "today" is actually the number of cases contracted about "two weeks ago". You won't see the actual number of cases contracted "today" until two weeks from now. It could be a little longer or shorter depending on the individual. But the point is, you should expect the number of "new cases" to jump significantly in the two weeks after a lockdown starts.

    The duration "two weeks" comes from when they polled people testing positive the date their symptoms started, which (when you add the latency from contraction to symptoms) tended to be 2 weeks, or so the article I read on it claimed the data it was showing in the graph said.
    Last edited by demagogue; 25th Mar 2020 at 08:30.

  24. #899
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    That is just one (scientific) paper. And the title is "paper suggest that ... may increase risks".
    I think SubJeff's point is that a lot of all the new-found information has not been checked yet. No real peer-reviews. No follow-up research yet. No other research that confirms the first research yet. In other words: these are all still just research-topics, nothing certain, no proof, just hunches, directions where to go next to find solutions.

    I suspect SubJeff is a researcher (medical or something else). And that taking these early clues as the full truth irritates him. I can understand that. So all we need to do is point at new clues and new research, and be aware it's not the truth yet. Just clues, hunches, directions, possibilities.

  25. #900
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Is there anywhere where that's actually worked? Not heard of any reductions in numbers in any of the countries where lockdowns have been put into affect. Italy's been on lockdown for a few weeks now, and the numbers of infected and deaths continues to go up.
    And remember that in lockdown families are getting SICK.

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