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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #951
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Is there anywhere where that's actually worked? Not heard of any reductions in numbers in any of the countries where lockdowns have been put into affect. Italy's been on lockdown for a few weeks now, and the numbers of infected and deaths continues to go up.
    I have been keeping an eye on this virus situation since we got our first cases. Brothers wife is a medical worker and he is also in a risk group due to some underlying health problems. And then inevitably i learned that i am too in high risk group. Since then various stuff has happened - like their child getting tested positive (seems that the worst has passed, recovering but not done yet). So, currently we serve as their legs and arms outside their home.

    Anyway, i have been keeping track of various stats and stuff - some of which might be of interest here:



    Number before "exp" is calculated spread multiplier (red line). The two numbers before it determine the exact range used to calculate that multiplier. Blue line is new cases and yellow is deaths.

    A spread multiplier below 1.0 means that the virus is dying out.

    est = some tin-pot-little mythical country no-one can find on any map (too early to tell).
    ita = Italy (has been bending down for quite some time already - hope it keeps that up)
    ger = Germany (has started to bend down)
    kor = South Korea (has been pointing down for quite some time already)
    usa = the land of the oranges, i think (very worrying. a few days ago the rate was once even over 1.43)
    spa = Spain (volatile, currently bending down)
    fra = France (bent some and now is unchanging)
    wor = The whole fluffy world (fuck)

    X-axis ~= days ago (2 = yesterday)

    On the subject of restrictions having an effect - it has a massive lag time.
    1. restrictions getting adhered takes time ... then ...
    2. virus has a incubation period of 2-14 days, with a mean of 5 days ... then ...
    3. it takes time for people to decide to get tested and/or convincing someone to test them and arrange it etc ... then ...
    4. it takes time to get the result of the test ... finally.

  2. #952
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    And again, that paper describes what they have investigated, what they've seen, and offers potential explanations. Sure, everybody is looking at covid-19 now, and there will be lots of interesting stuff. But again, it's all just research yet. Nothing 100% certain, nothing proven. This is science.

    Compare it to Trump. This week he has suggested that covid-19 can be cured with Chloroquine. "The results look good, they look very good". Trump claims the drug has already been tested, all the side-effects are known (and harmless), etc. The fact is that doctors and researchers are still look at Chloroquine to see if it is effective, how effective it is, what the side-effects are, etc, etc. Again, research versus proven reality. It turns out he's way way too positive, and nobody for sure knows if Chloroquine is gonna be really helpful or not.

    I don't wanna pick a fight with you. I really don't. But SubJeff has a point that some of the stuff you link to is still research, not proven science yet.
    Chloroquine is a good route because it acts as antiviral AND immunosuppressor. This is ALREADY known.
    Of course its practical clinical use can't be a "magical elixir" like Trump suggests.

  3. #953
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    kor = South Korea (has been pointing down for quite some time already)
    Hmm... I wonder what they are doing differently. Might be worth testing.

  4. #954
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Hmm... I wonder what they are doing differently. Might be worth testing.
    Early panic + taking it immediately seriously + massive rapid testing.
    Last edited by zombe; 25th Mar 2020 at 09:42. Reason: made implicit "rapid" explicit

  5. #955
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    New cases, sure (though that also depends on testing), but you would not necessarily expect the number of deaths to start going down after two weeks?
    The number of deaths was a third curve with its peak even further in front of the lockdown date, I forget how far but I think another two weeks or more in front of the new cases. So that's right, the number of deaths wouldn't start going down until maybe 4 weeks after the lockdown. I guess this is what you were trying to say before. I was talking about the stat for new cases from the beginning; the stat for deaths is the same principle just pushed even further out.

    But the number of deaths is going to already be coming from the number of known cases in a known way (if the fatality rate stands), so that's why I thought the number of new cases is the one to pay attention to, because before the person is tested & counted it's unclear where the number exactly stands. You just have an extrapolation, but different factors might surprise people with the reality being higher or lower than the expectation.

  6. #956
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    New cases, sure (though that also depends on testing), but you would not necessarily expect the number of deaths to start going down after two weeks?
    Someone correct me if I'm massively off-base, but my understanding was that the typical progression seems to be infection, two weeks asymptomatic, then (in the case of vulnerable individuals) illness, declining health, and then death over the next several weeks.

    So deaths should be occurring 3-5 weeks after infection, meaning if it's been two weeks since quarantine was enacted, the death rate should continue to rise for at least another two weeks before it starts to drop again.

    Edit: Oops, demagogue beat me to it.

  7. #957
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    My understanding, but I have no numbers to back it up:
    1) infection
    2) 4-7 days of no symptoms
    3a) symptoms for 1 week, light illness, then recovery, or
    3b) symptoms for 1 week, getting worse
    4) hospitalization
    5a) get pneumonia, die within 1 week, or
    5b) get severely ill (could be pneumonia too), stay in hospital 3 weeks, slowly recover

    Please someone correct me if I'm wrong/incomplete.

  8. #958
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    My understanding, but I have no numbers to back it up:
    1) infection
    2) 4-7 days of no symptoms
    3a) symptoms for 1 week, light illness, then recovery, or
    3b) symptoms for 1 week, getting worse
    4) hospitalization
    5a) get pneumonia, die within 1 week, or
    5b) get severely ill (could be pneumonia too), stay in hospital 3 weeks, slowly recover

    Please someone correct me if I'm wrong/incomplete.
    Good enough.
    For old people 4->4->critical state (ICU if not already in ICU)

  9. #959
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    The number of deaths was a third curve with its peak even further in front of the lockdown date, I forget how far but I think another two weeks or more in front of the new cases. So that's right, the number of deaths wouldn't start going down until maybe 4 weeks after the lockdown. I guess this is what you were trying to say before. I was talking about the stat for new cases from the beginning; the stat for deaths is the same principle just pushed even further out.
    Yeah, I was responding more to icemann who was wondering why the number of deaths is still going up after (in Italy's case 2) weeks of lockdown, but I was away from the computer for 15 minutes and you managed to post before I hit send.
    Last edited by Starker; 25th Mar 2020 at 11:00.

  10. #960
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Now here in Lombardy there's the spike of YOUNG (? 40/50 yo) people after 2 weeks of fever at home.

    Maybe not in "critical condition" but lungs are damaged nonetheless and they totally need hospitalization in sub ICU and sometimes ICU too.
    Every man over 40 can develop a critical condition.
    Still ~0 under 30 yo (maybe young men with already a critical condition, tipically in dialysis)
    Last edited by lowenz; 25th Mar 2020 at 11:02.

  11. #961
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Is there anywhere where that's actually worked? Not heard of any reductions in numbers in any of the countries where lockdowns have been put into affect. Italy's been on lockdown for a few weeks now, and the numbers of infected and deaths continues to go up.
    Did you forget about China already?

    South Korea, Taiwan, Estonia, Qatar also appear to be over the hump. And quite a few countries seem to be past the exponential growth phase and are seeing more linear growth. Italy and Iran are among them.

    China showed us how to beat this thing. We didn't pick up the playbook because we were in denial.

  12. #962
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    I don't think I really trust the numbers from Iran and China not being massaged at least a little bit. And Russia seems to have a suspiciously low number of cases too.

  13. #963
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Russia closed its borders really early on.

  14. #964
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Russia closed its borders really early on.
    How can you close Siberia?

  15. #965
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Did you forget about China already?
    There's a lot of evidence of China tampering with the numbers. Last month, there appeared to be a leak with numbers that more closely matched what some experts had predicted. This month, their cell networks reported a loss of 21 million cell users. Their attitude towards containment has also been widely criticized, in particular the idea of quarantine being an effective measure on its own.

    I'm not sure I'd use China as a role model. We will never actually know how effective their measures were.
    Last edited by catbarf; 25th Mar 2020 at 12:34.

  16. #966
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Fantastic.....now the SNOW.
    It feels like Auschwitz :/

  17. #967
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    My understanding, but I have no numbers to back it up:
    1) infection
    2) 4-7 days of no symptoms
    3a) symptoms for 1 week, light illness, then recovery, or
    3b) symptoms for 1 week, getting worse
    4) hospitalization
    5a) get pneumonia, die within 1 week, or
    5b) get severely ill (could be pneumonia too), stay in hospital 3 weeks, slowly recover

    Please someone correct me if I'm wrong/incomplete.
    From what I've read, it's probably more like:

    1) initial infection
    2) 5-14 days of no symptoms
    3) 2-3 days of light symptoms
    4) Heavy flu like symptoms for 1-2 weeks, then recovery.
    5) Or it develops into pneumonia
    6) If pneumonia worsen, then hospitalization is required. Possibly put on ventilator, moderately long recovery time
    7) Or pneumonia develops into ARDS. Ventilation and intensive care is required. Very long recovery time, with possible long term damage.

  18. #968
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    And this is why we're likely to get more fucked than anyone else. Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday.

    Everyone always thinks everything is a progressivist ploy to ruin their lives.

  19. #969
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    There's a lot of evidence of China tampering with the numbers. Last month, there appeared to be a leak with numbers that more closely matched what some experts had predicted. This month, their cell networks reported a loss of 21 million cell users. Their attitude towards containment has also been widely criticized, in particular the idea of quarantine being an effective measure on its own.

    I'm not sure I'd use China as a role model. We will never actually know how effective their measures were.
    You're citing a nearly two-month old speculative article from Crypto Coins News written by a financial blogger, himself citing Taiwan News, which is an English-language propaganda paper that has published multiple sensationalist articles about Covid-19 that have already been debunked - including the one from Feb 2 cited by CCN. It is based on the theory that a Chinese media company, Tencent, accidentally posted the true numbers, but then corrected them within minutes, which is why nobody but the Taiwan News writer ever saw them. Or, as others concluded, he photoshopped the screenshots and the whole thing is just conspiracy theory fodder.

    I'm not going to claim that information from the Chinese government is entirely reliable, but there are plenty of eyewitnesses in China reporting every day on the status of the recovery. I certainly haven't seen any reliable information over the last month to suggest they're not over the hump. I just watched an interview on Al Jazeera this morning with a journalist in Wuhan, who was saying that the locals are upset with the government because they feel like they're over and done with the virus but the government isn't opening things up fast enough.

    Anyway, the playbook is there for anybody who wants to follow it.

  20. #970
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Russia closed its borders really early on.
    Sure, if by really early on you mean a week ago.

  21. #971
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus

  22. #972
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    You're citing a nearly two-month old speculative article from Crypto Coins News written by a financial blogger, himself citing Taiwan News, which is an English-language propaganda paper that has published multiple sensationalist articles about Covid-19 that have already been debunked - including the one from Feb 2 cited by CCN. It is based on the theory that a Chinese media company, Tencent, accidentally posted the true numbers, but then corrected them within minutes, which is why nobody but the Taiwan News writer ever saw them. Or, as others concluded, he photoshopped the screenshots and the whole thing is just conspiracy theory fodder.
    Thanks for the context. I hadn't seen that background.

    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    I'm not going to claim that information from the Chinese government is entirely reliable, but there are plenty of eyewitnesses in China reporting every day on the status of the recovery. I certainly haven't seen any reliable information over the last month to suggest they're not over the hump. I just watched an interview on Al Jazeera this morning with a journalist in Wuhan, who was saying that the locals are upset with the government because they feel like they're over and done with the virus but the government isn't opening things up fast enough.

    Anyway, the playbook is there for anybody who wants to follow it.
    Right, so how do you tell the difference between:

    1. Effective containment measures stemming the spread of the virus until it starts to burn itself out, or
    2. Ineffective containment measures allowing the virus to spread through the population until it starts to burn itself out

    if you can't trust the reported values for number of infected or deaths? How do we know that 'China showed us how to beat this thing'?

    I mean, yes, factually China appears to be over its hump- but that was always inevitable. We'll be over the hump real quick if Trump gets his way and we're all back to work in the next few weeks, with no attempt at quarantine.

  23. #973
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    And this is why we're likely to get more fucked than anyone else. Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday.

    Everyone always thinks everything is a progressivist ploy to ruin their lives.
    More a jerk than a pastor.

  24. #974
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Sure, if by really early on you mean a week ago.
    I don't want to turn this into another russian-pissing-contest. I haven't written down exactly when I read that Russia was forbidding foreigners from entering the country. But I think it was the first week of March. Before our government was even advising us to "just wash your hands, and you'll be fine". I think it was just before Trump banned flights from China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...emic_in_Russia
    It says here that Russia banned foreigners from entering the country. It doesn't say when they did that exactly. The wiki-article suggests it happened shortly after March 2nd (3 weeks ago).

    There is a candidates-tournament going on in Moscow. Eight of the world's best chess-players battle to determine who gets to challenge the world-champion (Magnus Carlssen) at the end of the year. The first game was March 17. But the 8 participants (including US-citizen Caruana, and Dutch citizen Giri) were in Moscow 2 weeks ahead. I followed the situation a bit, because I was wondering if the tournament would proceed or get cancelled. And also I wondered if the candidates would be allowed to enter the country. That's another reason why I think I am correct to remember Russia to close it borders 3 weeks ago. BTW so far none of the candidates have gotten ill.

    That's the benefit when you are a dictatorship (China) or semi-dictatorship (Russia). You can employ very strict measures very early on, without parliament blocking you, or everybody else suing you. :/
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 25th Mar 2020 at 14:39.

  25. #975
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    ->


    -18 deaths since yesterday (320->302)


    302->296 -> -8 deaths

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