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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #76
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by PigLick View Post
    I wonder how the Olympics will fare?
    I sometimes watch Sumo wrestling. Every 2 months there is a large tournament, which lasts 15 days. 3 Inside Tokyo each year, 3 outside Tokyo. These tournaments will happen, no matter what. There was one cancelled in 2011, because there was a big match-fixing scandal. There was one cancelled in 1946, because they had to repair a hall from the damage of bombings in WWII. And there was one cancelled in 1932, because of a strike/rebellion among wrestlers.

    The next tournament (in Osaka) will be played without spectators. Only the wrestlers will be there.
    The tournament begins this Sunday. I wonder what it will be like.

    The Olympics start on July 24. Still 4.5 months away. Maybe because of the better weather the epidemic will have slowed down enough to let the Olympics continue ? Or maybe they will play without spectators ? I guess they will make the decision somewhere early July.

  2. #77
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    I hope this virus IS nothing more than the latest fear mongering crap the news likes to peddle.
    It's not gonna drive a panic then disappear like Ebola did. It spreads too quickly and easily for it to just go away without throwing out some drama first. But it won't be the end of the world either. Civilization won't end because of Coronavirus.

    I expect our reaction to it will be the worst thing about it.

  3. #78
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    It's not gonna drive a panic then disappear like Ebola did. It spreads too quickly and easily for it to just go away without throwing out some drama first. But it won't be the end of the world either. Civilization won't end because of Coronavirus.

    I expect our reaction to it will be the worst thing about it.
    as long as people don't rise to the level of stupid like they do when black Friday shopping we should come out ok.

  4. #79
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/confirmed...020009251.html
    The latest coronavirus death rate is 3.4% — higher than earlier figures. Older patients face the highest risk.
    pretty good odds even if you get it.

  5. #80
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    +


    +30 ICU

  6. #81
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    hope they recover soon.

  7. #82
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Chile, Argentina, and Poland have now been infected.

    Worldwide:

    Total Confirmed Cases
    94,261

    Total Deaths
    3,214

    Total Recovered
    51,039

    Looking at the graph, what we want to see is the green line (Total Recovered) maintain a higher trajectory than the orange and yellow lines (Total Infected), in order to avoid a negative spiral effect.


  8. #83
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the flu killed over 60k per year in the US alone ....
    While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

  9. #84
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    An entirely meaningless comparison. The flu...
    * infects a massive amount of people, way more than the currently confirmed coronavirus cases
    * is much less lethal
    * usually has enough resources available to treat it
    * has a vaccine to reduce both the chance of catching it and dying from its complications

  10. #85
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's that we don't know much about it that's so scary. This is a virus that's directly related to SARS, a much deadlier sickness. Will it mutate? If so, when? Tomorrow? 10 years from now? Will it become less lethal? More?

    Who the hell knows?

    Meanwhile, you can practically time your watch by what we know the flu does.

  11. #86
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    symptoms are similar between them.
    * we have flu season every damn year
    * HOW the hell did you get that ? https://www.kff.org/other/state-indi...2:%22asc%22%7D that is about 14% per 100 infections? flu is worse
    * see above, far more deaths due to flu
    * likewise on corona, the symptoms are very similar
    * your chances of dying from Corona virus are 3.5%...........................

    (Meme removed)

    SOME of you are seemingly scared over a virus that does not hold a candle to flu deaths .

  12. #87
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    * HOW the hell did you get that ? https://www.kff.org/other/state-indi...2:%22asc%22%7D that is about 14% per 100 infections? flu is worse
    Um... read it again and think about it a little. Is it really the case that 14% of people who catch the flu die?

    Also, your chances of dying from coronavirus depend a lot on in how much risk you are -- how old you are, do you have any chronic illnesses, are you immunocompromised, how good are the health services in your area, etc.

  13. #88
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    damn, sounds just like the flu only you have a lot more deaths from the flu.

  14. #89
    Administrator
    Registered: Oct 2000
    Location: Athens of the North
    Really don't understand your maths there, jk. From your previous link the estimated rate in 2018 was 61 thousand deaths out of 45 million people with symptoms - that's around 0.14%. Using your "good odds" figure of 3.4% for covid-19 then about 1.5 million people in the US would die if the same number of people caught it.

    (your other link of flu being responsible for 14.9 deaths (not %) per 100,000 people in the US is age adjusted but would be roughly 49 thousand for the entire population which is reasonably consistent with the CDC burden figures)

  15. #90
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    damn, sounds just like the flu only you have a lot more deaths from the flu.
    The only reason why we have more deaths from the flu is because we don't spend billions of dollars quarantining entire cities every time it breaks out. If we let corona spread without trying to stop it, it'd infect twice as many people, and the death toll would be considerably higher.

    Think of it like this:

    The flu infected 42,000,000 people, and killed around 61,200 in 2019. 0.14% of everyone who caught the flu died.

    Coronavirus has infected 90,000 people so far. If it were just as deadly as the flu, it would've only killed 128 people so far. Instead, it's killed around 3000.

    So you could imagine how much worse it would be if it spread unabated. Even then, it wouldn't be the end of the world, but it'd be really not fucking fun in the least. It'd basically be another 1918 epidemic

  16. #91
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Lol jck be all dumb

  17. #92
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    The mortality rate of regular flu is around 0.05%. The mortality rate of Corona was 2% we were told. Today on the news it is now said that the rate has been adjusted to 3.4%. My guess is it will go up a little. Maybe to 5%. Reason: the Chinese have been lying. E.g. Italy has 3k+ infections, and 107 deaths today. That's already 3.3%, and not all infected have either recovered or died.

    So, is 5% mortality-rate a big deal ? Or not news-worthy. That's up to you.

  18. #93
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Al_B View Post
    Really don't understand your maths there, jk. From your previous link the estimated rate in 2018 was 61 thousand deaths out of 45 million people with symptoms - that's around 0.14%. Using your "good odds" figure of 3.4% for covid-19 then about 1.5 million people in the US would die if the same number of people caught it.

    (your other link of flu being responsible for 14.9 deaths (not %) per 100,000 people in the US is age adjusted but would be roughly 49 thousand for the entire population which is reasonably consistent with the CDC burden figures)
    I was using common core math
    you guys are correct, my apologies.

  19. #94
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    The only reason why we have more deaths from the flu is because we don't spend billions of dollars quarantining entire cities every time it breaks out. If we let corona spread without trying to stop it, it'd infect twice as many people, and the death toll would be considerably higher.

    Think of it like this:

    The flu infected 42,000,000 people, and killed around 61,200 in 2019. 0.14% of everyone who caught the flu died.

    Coronavirus has infected 90,000 people so far. If it were just as deadly as the flu, it would've only killed 128 people so far. Instead, it's killed around 3000.

    So you could imagine how much worse it would be if it spread unabated. Even then, it wouldn't be the end of the world, but it'd be really not fucking fun in the least. It'd basically be another 1918 epidemic
    we are no putting cities on Quarantine, quarantines right now seem to be voluntary.

    this could cripple our economy to a degree but since it is world wide we would all be in the same boat somewhat breaking even.

    if in quarantine, HOW are people going to pay their bills? if you are under advised quarantine and have bills to pay your ass will head out to work. ..

    again I was wrong in the numbers so my apologies.

  20. #95
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Here's how they compare, according to our current best estimates:


  21. #96
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The mortality rate of regular flu is around 0.05%. The mortality rate of Corona was 2% we were told. Today on the news it is now said that the rate has been adjusted to 3.4%.
    This is basically correct...Yet, to be clear, the newly discovered Wuhan Coronavirus is named "COVID-19". Which of right now, has a (3.41%) death rate, resulting in roughly 7x (672%) the death rate of the seasonal flu.

    EDIT: In addition, the morality rate for COVID-19 is certainly higher than what is being reported here, due to the lack of testing and cover-up by the Chinese government.
    Last edited by Vae; 4th Mar 2020 at 18:03.

  22. #97
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    we are no putting cities on Quarantine, quarantines right now seem to be voluntary.
    Should've clarified. China locked down 5 or 6 cities, the rest of the world is still voluntary. But we're all spending billions combating it.

  23. #98
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post

    EDIT: In addition, the morality rate for COVID-19 is certainly higher than what is being reported here, due to the lack of testing and cover-up by the Chinese government.
    Actually, South Korea, which has the highest number of cases outside China, is only reporting a death rate of 0.6%.

    They are dealing with it in a different way, test more, catching more. The healthcare practices make a lot of difference. It's not as simple as saying "death rate is X".

  24. #99
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Should've clarified. China locked down 5 or 6 cities, the rest of the world is still voluntary. But we're all spending billions combating it.
    don't care about China, oh wait my wish order is going to be late

  25. #100
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Actually, South Korea, which has the highest number of cases outside China, is only reporting a death rate of 0.6%.

    They are dealing with it in a different way, test more, catching more. The healthcare practices make a lot of difference. It's not as simple as saying "death rate is X".
    Of course there are a number of variables, which include region, age, pre-existing conditions, etc...First World nations such as South Korea that have advanced western medical practices and technical resources are going to get notably better results than the developing areas of the world, which get hit the hardest. However, the worldwide mortality rate aggregate is useful for understanding the threat level of the virus itself, when compared to Influenza A, B, C, and D.

    Also, it's extremely important to keep in mind that if the rate of infection increases to the point that it overwhelms the ability to effectively test and treat, then we would see a higher mortality rate in that region.
    Last edited by Vae; 4th Mar 2020 at 22:57.

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