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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #976
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    More a jerk than a pastor.
    WELCOME TO AMERICA, WHERE EVEN THE BUGS ARE POLITICAL!

    There's also that story about all those kids organizing a Coronavirus party in Kentucky, and one of the kids who joined in on it has been diagnosed positive.

    As long as no one takes it seriously, it's gonna keep spreading.

  2. #977
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Right, so how do you tell the difference between:

    1. Effective containment measures stemming the spread of the virus until it starts to burn itself out, or
    2. Ineffective containment measures allowing the virus to spread through the population until it starts to burn itself out

    if you can't trust the reported values for number of infected or deaths? How do we know that 'China showed us how to beat this thing'?

    I mean, yes, factually China appears to be over its hump- but that was always inevitable. We'll be over the hump real quick if Trump gets his way and we're all back to work in the next few weeks, with no attempt at quarantine.
    You can tell the difference by the infection rate.

    China is reporting 82k cases in a population of 1.4B, for an infection rate of 0.006%. We know the number of confirmed cases doesn't include people who get sick and don't need any medical attention and never get tested. And maybe China's public numbers are low. But still, even if it's off by a full order of magnitude, the virus only reached a tiny fraction of the population. Same with South Korea, where 9137/51M = 0.02%

    In contrast, the herd immunity solution requires 60-80% of the population to be infected. More recently I've heard an alternate estimate of 40-70%. It depends on R0. If we don't try to contain it and just let it spread while we go about normal business, it could take 6 months or even a year to spread through the population to that extent, depending on whose speculation is right.

  3. #978
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    I like this story:
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...kj11RA/preview

    In the Czech Republic, there was a shortage of protective gear. So the public decided to make their own masks. People make them at home. Companies make them. They hand out the self-made masks to anyone who needs them. Including large amount of masks made by the public given to hospitals and institutions. And the people wear masks when they go outside ! Thanks to this, there are only 2 covid-19 deaths in the Czech Republic, and the outbreak is slowing down.

    Maybe we should start likewise initiatives in our own countries. In NL early-on we were told that "masks are useless". I can't believe that. I think that statement was mostly inspired by the fact that we don't have (any) masks for our general population. If I had a mask, I'd wear it. If I had a sowing machine, I'd make my own. Tonight I will check out those links, and see if I can make my own mask after all.

  4. #979
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Some guy in Canada found a way to keep 9 people on one ventilator. Ford has also repurposed one of their assembly lines to make ventilators, which is at once heartening, and kinda concerning, cuz I've seen how Ford builds their fucking trucks.

  5. #980
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus

    yeah Ford sucks. you need Chevy to build them because Chevy blows.......

  6. #981
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I'd rather die on a Ford than breathe a Chevy!

  7. #982
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    "I suspect SubJeff is a researcher (medical or something else)" -> Zombe is of course a researcher/medic.

    SubJeff is the classic (GOOD) skeptic.
    SubJeff is a physician (anaesthetic background), ex-behavioural pharmacologist and a drug researcher/developer.

    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    I have been keeping an eye on this virus situation since we got our first cases.
    What speciality zombe?

  8. #983
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    I'm not convinced of the efficacy of cloth masks. I'm not even convinced of the efficacy of the standard medical masks. I have certain allergies, and neither cloth nor standard surgical masks do anything to alleviate them. But once, doing IT on a lab-rat study (I'm allergic to rat dander), they gave me this weird duck-billed HEPA-filter mask that taped on all the way around. THAT device worked like a miracle. I don't know what it's called.

  9. #984
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I don't want to turn this into another russian-pissing-contest. I haven't written down exactly when I read that Russia was forbidding foreigners from entering the country. But I think it was the first week of March. Before our government was even advising us to "just wash your hands, and you'll be fine". I think it was just before Trump banned flights from China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...emic_in_Russia
    It says here that Russia banned foreigners from entering the country. It doesn't say when they did that exactly. The wiki-article suggests it happened shortly after March 2nd (3 weeks ago).

    There is a candidates-tournament going on in Moscow. Eight of the world's best chess-players battle to determine who gets to challenge the world-champion (Magnus Carlssen) at the end of the year. The first game was March 17. But the 8 participants (including US-citizen Caruana, and Dutch citizen Giri) were in Moscow 2 weeks ahead. I followed the situation a bit, because I was wondering if the tournament would proceed or get cancelled. And also I wondered if the candidates would be allowed to enter the country. That's another reason why I think I am correct to remember Russia to close it borders 3 weeks ago. BTW so far none of the candidates have gotten ill.

    That's the benefit when you are a dictatorship (China) or semi-dictatorship (Russia). You can employ very strict measures very early on, without parliament blocking you, or everybody else suing you. :/
    Wikipedia is wrong then. Russia didn't ban all foreigners (with some exceptions, of course) until March 18:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21329T

    There were some travel restrictions before that -- for example Chinese, South Korean and Iranian citizens were banned from entering Russia sometime in the beginning of March and Italians were banned sometime in the middle of March.

    In comparison, Italy banned all flights from China on January 31st.

    Oh, and btw, there's nothing semi about Russia's dictatorship. Putin was just about to give himself yet another term or two in office when the shit hit the fan.
    Last edited by Starker; 25th Mar 2020 at 16:56.

  10. #985
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    I'm not convinced of the efficacy of cloth masks. I'm not even convinced of the efficacy of the standard medical masks. I have certain allergies, and neither cloth nor standard surgical masks do anything to alleviate them.
    The home-made masks are not just cloth. They are cloth on the outside, with a filter of some sort on the inside. E.gl. certain types of gauze. After you wear your mask once, you throw away the gauze filter. And you wash you cloth mask. Next time you use it, you stick in new fresh clean gauze.

    Of course I don't know if it works. Or how efficient it is. But remember these masks are not for use in ICUs, or working with confirmed patients. They are just masks for general use. I'm sure there are lots of things that are not stopped by these masks. But remember that covid-19 is not spreading "standalone". The virus is in fluids, in droplets. When people cough, sneeze, or shaking their head when sweating. I can see how a simple mask will protect you (in most cases) against people sneezing. Or breathing in your face. And when everybody wears them (both the infected and non-infected) it should help even more.

    Edit: it seems the WHO gives confusing advice. 1) Don't wear them when you are not infected, because their is no proof they help, 2) when you are not infected, but take care of someone who is infected, then you SHOULD wear them.
    ??? Huh ?
    https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...w-to-use-masks

    Or maybe the benefits are mostly the fact that you won't touch your face as often, when wearing a mask.

    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Wikipedia is wrong then. Russia didn't ban all foreigners (with some exceptions, of course) until March 18
    OK, I was wrong then.
    (FYI, the article you quote is from March 16).
    I'm pretty sure I read earlier that Russia was closing its borders for foreigners. But maybe they started relaxed, and tightened later. I don't know.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 25th Mar 2020 at 17:21.

  11. #986
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Looks like we're now starting to step up triage procedures. Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients.

  12. #987
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    SubJeff is a physician (anaesthetic background), ex-behavioural pharmacologist and a drug researcher/developer.


    What speciality zombe?
    Well, thanks!

    So why all that (GOOD) skeptism about the possibility that a drug can enable SARS-Cov-2 to spread more and more in your body AND this is the root of the deaths here in Italy? (Virtually every man and woman is on ACE-inhibitors here when 40/50 yo and the infection amplification effects of ACE-inhibitors are well known, it's on the package leaflet too!).
    Maybe without ACE-inhibitors the infection of this Coronavirus can't reach for the lungs so quickly and deadly.

  13. #988
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    (FYI, the article you quote is from March 16).
    Thank you for the information. The article, as you note, is indeed from March 16. The ban it's talking about, however, started from the 18th:

    The ban on foreign nationals will be enforced from March 18 until May 1, though diplomats, airplane crew members and some other categories of people will be exempt, the government said.

  14. #989
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Because there is no good evidence for it.

    As you keep being told.

  15. #990
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Because there is no good evidence for it.

    As you keep being told.
    Evidence for a *possibility* ? Never asked for the "truth" (there's NO truth here)
    Maybe the interaction is more complicated but of course there's must be a reason why the infection ramps up so quickly and common drugs can be involved as a factor.

  16. #991
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.businessinsider.com/covi...KKOiH6E60K1VQQ
    Los Angeles residents will be confined to their homes until May, at the earliest, Mayor Eric Garcetti told Insider on Wednesday.
    In an interview, Garcetti pushed back against "premature optimism" in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, saying leaders who suggest we are on the verge of business-as-usual are putting lives at risk.
    Garcetti said he's worried about the irreplaceable loss of life that's predicted with this outbreak. "This will not kill most of us," he noted. But, "It will kill a lot more people than we're used to dying around us."
    "It will be our friends. It will be our family. It will be people who we love dearly," he said. "And everything I do is through that lens."

  17. #992
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It wouldn't surprise me if people end up pushing the shelter in home mandates into summer.

  18. #993
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    people are freaking out as it is and at only two weeks,

    cops are getting infected and letting things be, as soon as the retard population starts getting desperate things will get worse.





    WE ARE too fucking stupid here to understand that if we only suffered a bit and stayed the fuck home we could make a difference, but no we are at the beach and hiking trails and every fucking place we can head too............. I do get why most are afraid to stay home

  19. #994
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    This is gonna go over about as well as some bad thing mixed with some other even worse thing.

    Seattle NPR affiliate to stop airing White House coronavirus briefings over 'pattern of false' information

    And since JK's around, HERE'S A MEME!


  20. #995
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Evidence for a *possibility* ? Never asked for the "truth" (there's NO truth here)
    Maybe the interaction is more complicated but of course there's must be a reason why the infection ramps up so quickly and common drugs can be involved as a factor.
    That's not how reality works.

    Why is there a lower death rate in Germany than in Italy? Let me give you two correlations you might want to consider. And these ARE real correlations, they are both facts about the differences in the populations.

    1. Italians are more likely to have consumed gelato in the past year. Therefore gelato consumption is a risk factor in severity of Covid-19.
    2. Germans are less likely to have been called a stronzo, by their friends as a joke possibly. Therefore not ever begin called a stonzo is protective when you get Covid-19.

    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post


    I love these two so much.

  21. #996
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    My take on the masks is they prevent me from touching my face. That's got to be worth something.

  22. #997
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    What speciality zombe?
    I guess some clarifications are in order as i think there was some room from misinterpreting what i said. By "WE" in "since WE got our first cases" i meant we as a country.

    So, worth repeating: i have zero education in any ever remotely relevant field. My interest in the subject stems, as hinted, having close relatives working in hospitals (not anymore since their kid got tested positive). Especially as many of the close relatives have underlying health issues relevant to this disease - including me. Hard to stay away from the topic.

    ----------------------------
    To change the subject completely - something the orange buffoon said recently. Seeming to try his best to give a glorified spin to sharing one ventilator between multiple patients or something. I read about that some weeks ago. Seems like a shitty solution - but the math has potential (chance to save two or more instead of writing them off). Don't really know how it is done, but seems to me that it would be very restrictive in what features of the device you can use (ex: cannot see how you could use assist control mode - and would not the more intrusive modes require sedation?). Most useful in regards to this disease seems to be (backed by research with statistically significant results): low tidal volume (~2000. might outright require sedation, if memory serves, of patient as the body does not want to do what the ventilator dictates) including using paralysis (for complete sync with the ventilator - not a sane option in outbreak situation). That stuff (if deemed an option to begin with) does not sound to be possible when the device is shared. Sounds like a choice: good care for one and kill off the rest vs shitty care for all and possibly they all die as a result.

    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    ... Estonia ... also appear to be over the hump.
    I would not go that far. It has been barely 14 days since shit hit the fan and restrictions started to roll out. The virus is out there - with two hotspots (one isolated, one not). That said, so far it has been relatively stable but still growing (ie. probably a good idea to ignore the initial super-spreader fallout anomalies from stats and see the slight upward trend that emerges then). There was time when our case count per pop was the fifth in the world (!) - not anymore. Unfortunately, not because we are doing super well - just the rest of the world has gotten into much bigger trouble. Current strategy, besides isolation, is extensive testing. We had some problems with that at the start. While out testing capability was ramping up well (now exceeding S.Korea numbers per pop) - we had a considerable risk of running out of kits with no real hope of getting more in time (tiny countries are first in line to get screwed in situations like this). However, we recently got that sorted for a while at least and testing has been ramped up also. Positives per tests performed has gone down to 0.08 (almost half of what it used to be) now and lowering in effort to find the positives as soon as possible to additionally help preventing spread via unaware secondary carriers (ie. you had recent contact with someone who was infected). So, expecting higher number of new cases from now on for some time - but probably/hopefully not for long and not an exponential runaway. Will see.
    Last edited by zombe; 25th Mar 2020 at 21:58. Reason: 0.8 instead of 0.08

  23. #998
    Chakat sex pillow
    Registered: Sep 2006
    Location: not here
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Evidence for a *possibility* ? Never asked for the "truth" (there's NO truth here)
    Maybe the interaction is more complicated but of course there's must be a reason why the infection ramps up so quickly and common drugs can be involved as a factor.
    Look, until the actual experts actually run the entire battery of tests with scientific method at their disposal, armchair speculation is more likely to whip everyone up into a frenzy with conclusions based on incomplete data and information. I get that you're spitballing, but only after I look at the context of your posts -- if we didn't know better they'd appear to be presented as fact, and that's the opposite of being useful. So while I'm sure everyone appreciates the interest, dial it down until we get actual clinical conclusions, not work in progress guesstimation.

  24. #999
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    I love these two so much.
    Here's one that made me gigglechuck.


  25. #1000
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Neat little article from a few days ago, really takes a crack at what the statistics mean:

    Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof

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