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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1001
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's offical, yall. By the end of the day, we'll have surpassed Italy and China as the global leader in confirmed active Coronavirus cases.

    ...and we're still scrambling for a unified, nationwide response. Only 5 states have enacted a mandatory stay-at-home order thus far.

  2. #1002
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Take these data and weight them with the gender distribution here in Italy (it's not 1:1, over 90 is 1:4 / 1:5 for women here in Italy)



    And you'll see that in every age group (90 yo too) there's a 4 times difference between the deaths number of men and women. Or higher.
    Now think about men vs women ACE2 receptors expression in lung tissues.

    Ah: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x
    Last edited by lowenz; 26th Mar 2020 at 17:17.

  3. #1003
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Of course and I've said "DEADLY version" not by chance.

    The pneumonia is not even present under 20.
    In *infected* persons.
    On Tuesday, we had our first child death in the US. It was in Los Angeles, and the individual's identity wasn't revealed, but he or she was under 18 and had no pre-existing conditions or known risk factors. IIRC, China also reported a teenager and a baby dying from the disease.

  4. #1004
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    This. Even if the odds are in your favor, there's still a chance it could kill you. Treat it accordingly.
    Not a single chance under 20, not a single chance under 30 if not immunocompromised/with a severe clinical condition BEFORE.
    And this is NOT by chance. It's impossible.

  5. #1005
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    On Tuesday, we had our first child death in the US. It was in Los Angeles, and the individual's identity wasn't revealed, but he or she was under 18 and had no pre-existing conditions or known risk factors. IIRC, China also reported a teenager and a baby dying from the disease.
    *no pre-existing conditions*

    KNOWN conditions please.

    I discovered only @22 that I have only 1 kidney and I passed my first years in and out of hospitals.
    Literally in and out and no one EVER thought about this.

    And you know, SARS2 loves kidney tissue.
    It's not a lung-specific infection.

  6. #1006
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Not a single chance under 20, not a single chance under 30 if not immunocompromised/with a severe clinical condition BEFORE.
    And this is NOT by chance. It's impossible.
    A 16 year old girl has died of Coronavirus in Paris.

    My Spanish is spotty as hell, but I think it says that it's currently unknown if other underlying conditions helped contribute to her death.

    Some people are safer than others, but no one is totally safe from this. Stay the fuck indoors.

  7. #1007
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    News breaking now is that a 17-year old from New Orleans died today. No word on existing conditions yet.
    There was also a 21-year old English girl who died the other day, previously in good health with no known health issues.

    There's nothing magic that happens to one's body at age 20. Low risk doesn't mean no risk.

  8. #1008
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    News breaking now is that a 17-year old from New Orleans died today. No word on existing conditions yet.
    There was also a 21-year old English girl who died the other day, previously in good health with no known health issues.

    There's nothing magic that happens to one's body at age 20. Low risk doesn't mean no risk.
    Not the age of course, but the drugs you take or the inflammation regulation/expression.

    Of course there's no "0 risk" but we got 8.165 death and no one in the age group where the socialization is on top of the priorities.

    Isn't it strange for an ubercontagious disease?
    I mean ZERO here in Italy.

  9. #1009
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Okay then. Apparently the Coronavirus map is lagging a bit. We're not soon to be first in coronavirus cases, we ARE No.1

    I hate to sound like an alarmist here, but since this spread through the country so quickly relative to everywhere else, we're probably gonna get smacked with this 10x as hard as people start dying seemingly all at once, rather than stretched out slowly over an extended period of time. In two weeks, we've surpassed the number China has been building up to for three months now, what took Italy nearly a full month to achieve.

    And since it's still actively spreading here, well, I think we're about to become the world model for the worst case scenario.

    I hope I'm being overly dramatic here, but this doesn't look good.

  10. #1010
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Good luck yankees

  11. #1011
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Hopes and prayers!

  12. #1012
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Hopes and prayers!
    More prayers less spreaders......

  13. #1013
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    We had a bad day
    And so did a lot of countries unfortunately.

    I still think India could be the worst case scenario. Fortunately, they seem to be imposing a very tight shutdown relatively early.
    And at some point, this is going to hit the various refugee camps around the world, and that's going to be a disaster.

    EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time. However, I expect we will follow the model of our Southern neighbor, Massachusetts, and define "essential businesses" so broadly that half the state is still open for business.
    Last edited by heywood; 26th Mar 2020 at 18:15.

  14. #1014
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Somehow Massachusettes being described as Southern and kook conservative, in this context at least, is a fitting sign of how surreal our world is now.

    You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.

  15. #1015
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post

    Isn't it strange for an ubercontagious disease?
    No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.

    Please just stop. Almost all of your posts on the scientific aspects of this have been incorrect. I appreciate that you're interested in it, and the papers you link to are (mostly) interesting. But you're jumping to conclusions and making declarations that just aren't true.


    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I hate to sound like an alarmist here, but since this spread through the country so quickly relative to everywhere else, we're probably gonna get smacked with this 10x as hard as people start dying seemingly all at once

    I hope I'm being overly dramatic here, but this doesn't look good.
    I've been saying this for the past 2 weeks - the USA is where the real disaster will happen. You TTLGer's need to stay the hell indoors.

    It's because of a number of factors, but it really boils down to the entire set-up, the entire culture. And it's compounded by Trump being in power. If it were Obama I really think it's be different. Still dreadful, but just not AS dreadful. The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.

    Though Trump's travel restrictions were ahead of the curve and that stimulus package is impressive.

    It's too late, sadly. The death toll in the USA will be the worst on the planet, maybe by several factors. That's my unfortunate prediction.

  16. #1016
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I can tell you how the south we'll react. We have people in Tennessee begging for a full lockdown, but the governor is sticking strong to the "just be careful" line, and handing off the real decision making to the city governments. The governor of Louisiana has stated he will not put the state into lockdown.

    Meanwhile, people are STILL going on as if it's life as usual. The roads are a little less busy, but that's about it.

  17. #1017
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.
    We can. We've done it before. We're not going to now though, because everything's political.

  18. #1018
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time.
    Color me surprised- don't you guys still have 'Live Free Or Die' on your license plates as standard-issue? Good to see them taking it seriously, New York is looking more and more like The Division with each passing day.

    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.
    Here in Virginia- the northern, liberal enclave of Virginia- I'm watching my local neighbors on Nextdoor argue that it's all a hoax, proudly boasting that they went to stores and mingled with hundreds of other people. Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon. Then there are others saying oh well, big deal, we'll probably mostly catch it, and ignoring the pretty simple math on what that translates to.

    It's nice to see some members of the community telling them to shut the fuck up, but yeah, I'm worried. Both my wife and I have government contracting jobs and we're both able to work from home, and all our fresh food is delivered from a local farm, so we don't have any real need to leave the house (at least, as long as the farm is delivering). But I'm worried that we're not just going to see a lot of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals; temporary societal breakdown isn't looking out of the question.

    I'm getting sick of these rugged survivalists touting how ready they are for the apocalypse. Like it's something they actually want.

    I wish there was more we could do.

  19. #1019
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon.
    I'm beginning to think that maybe we should put some containers of fish tank cleaner on the side of the road somewhere, and let nature take its course.

  20. #1020
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.
    To be precise R0 is related to lethality: No contagion -> no death

    The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
    And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.

    So don't tell me "it's not related" when you see a perfect ZERO where the contagion spreads the most with subclinical symptoms and so underestimated.
    Last edited by lowenz; 26th Mar 2020 at 20:46.

  21. #1021
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Please just stop. Almost all of your posts on the scientific aspects of this have been incorrect.
    And your textbook truism is? Are you serious or not?

  22. #1022
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    YO! SIMMER DOWN NOW!

  23. #1023
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Now Trump wants to put troops on the Canadian Border, for fuck's sake! Hey, Donny! Believe me, Canadians do not want to storm the 49th to gobble up your "pay as you go" healthcare system. But if the soldiers will keep Yankees from escaping north, spreading infections and overwhelming our hospitals, they can stand on guard for thee as well.

  24. #1024
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
    And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.
    But they aren't.

    As of March 26 only 1.2% of cases in Italy are under 18. And 25% of cases are between 19 and 50 years of age.

    The rest - 75% ish - are over 50.

    So under 30s and under 20s are NOT "the most infected part of the population".

    Why must we do this?

  25. #1025
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    So, it looks like the Reagan dream is coming true: Lord Dampnut said again that it would be up to the individual states to get the equipment they need and the role of the federal government is to be a backup and stay in the sidelines. I mean, I get it that it fits with the US concept of what the government's role is and that business and free markets can sort everything out by themselves, but isn't forcing individual states to compete for limited supplies on the open market just going to needlessly drive up prices and screw over the less wealthy states?

    Oh well, at least their legislative branch seems to be doing something.

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