TTLG|Thief|Bioshock|System Shock|Deus Ex|Mobile
Page 41 of 122 FirstFirst ... 611162126313637383940414243444546515661667176818691 ... LastLast
Results 1,001 to 1,025 of 3030

Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1001
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Why is there a lower death rate in Germany than in Italy? Let me give you two correlations you might want to consider. And these ARE real correlations, they are both facts about the differences in the populations.
    Less (number of) contagions.
    Here we had a massive event (Atalanta match with vs Valencia), with 40.000 people from Bergamo and Brescia outskirts there.
    With already a good number of active spreaders there.

    So think about the 40/30/20 yo with no symptoms but infectious that talks all day long about the match and the great moment for our beloved soccer team with his parents/grandparents on ACE inhibitors......

    That's the context for the correlation with ACE inhibitors..
    Of course is NOT the ACE inhibitors that increase the contagions.
    Last edited by lowenz; 26th Mar 2020 at 03:38.

  2. #1002
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Sulphur View Post
    actual experts
    Yeah but here "experts" (not so young people) are dying too.
    Virtually 50% of the medical staff is infected, virologists too.

  3. #1003
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    4. it takes time to get the result of the test ... finally.
    Isn't there kits now, that give the result back right away? Heard that on the news yesterday.

  4. #1004
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I've heard of tests that can give results in 5-15 minutes, but I don't think they're readily available yet, at least not here.

  5. #1005
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia


    Spot on

  6. #1006
    Chakat sex pillow
    Registered: Sep 2006
    Location: not here
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Yeah but here "experts" (not so young people) are dying too.
    Virtually 50% of the medical staff is infected, virologists too.
    Uh huh. And they're still working to provide useful information to people despite that. Let's not devalue the work by adding the Dunning-Kruger effect to the mix, yes? I get that you're worried about the situation -- everyone is. We'll see it through, though, by being infinitely more careful about what we do.

  7. #1007
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Spot on
    My take of the world:

    Some people are good, and will willingly go out of their way to help others in any way they can.
    Most people mean well, but won't deal with any more shit than they absolutely have to.
    Some people are absolute fuckheads, and will go out of their way to make people miserable.

    Everyone is prone to panic, especially if they feel they're unprepared.

    We're all wired to remember people who slight us moreso than those who help us. If in a single day you run across someone who gives you an extra couple bucks you were short of at the register, another person who gives up their seat for you because you look like you needed it more, and a third person who shoves you to the ground, making you spill your groceries all the sidewalk, then tells you to fuck yourself, you're gonna remember that third guy first and foremost.

    It'll stick in your head, make you remember all the other instances where someone's been a total fuckhead to you, and you'll think the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket.

    The internet has exacerbated this tendency, since we all love to hate an asshole, and we'll go out of our way to find videos of people being assholes so we can look down on them. After 5 minutes of doing this, you think the world went to hell years ago, and we just need to burn it all to the ground.

    And that's life in the modern world.

  8. #1008
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I've heard of tests that can give results in 5-15 minutes, but I don't think they're readily available yet, at least not here.
    Now accepting orders for Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Test for COVID-19

  9. #1009
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Nice.

    Though from reading the caveats at the bottom of the page, it looks like it's better suited to prescreenings than it is a complete test on its own.

    Whatever test the South Koreans use is supposedly fairly quick. The only problem there is that they're made by one company, and they can't manufacture enough to meet the demands of the entire world in a timely fashion.

  10. #1010
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Sulphur View Post
    Uh huh. And they're still working to provide useful information to people despite that. Let's not devalue the work by adding the Dunning-Kruger effect to the mix, yes? I get that you're worried about the situation -- everyone is. We'll see it through, though, by being infinitely more careful about what we do.
    Yes and let's not indulge in the "Dunning-Kruger" bashing.
    Personally I'm NOT worried.

  11. #1011
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    That's the context for the correlation with ACE inhibitors..
    Of course is NOT the ACE inhibitors that increase the contagions.
    You've totally missed my point, but it doesn't matter really. Let's just wait until there is definitive evidence for increased risk, and for better recovery of course.

    The whole "this is the cure!" stuff going on is EXACTLY what Jude Law's character was doing in the film Contagion.

    In fact Contagion is just such an awesome piece of work that I may watch it again, despite re-watching it a few weeks ago when this all started.

    Note to file: what did I say about the USA? Infection numbers will top Italy's this weekend. Sadly. Stay safe TTLGers. Stay isolated.

  12. #1012
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    I have a complete training in statistics man (engineering @Politecnico di Milano), I've NOT missed your point.
    Of course you can create all the correlations you want, "real" as you want, 'cause they're correlations and not cause-effect relationships (still the cause-effect relationships is a human mind feature, not a reality feature)

    I only *think* that an "unexpected" interaction with absolutely needed drugs are worth investigating.
    Cause something is @work here to induce the pneumonia SO quickly, much quickier than the normal influenza. And it's not the "strangeness" of the virus 'cause it is a normal virus and this is proven by the fact that under30 people with no diseases are NOT affected by the deadly version of the infection expression.

  13. #1013
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Quote Originally Posted by Dia View Post
    Meanwhile, we have the Talibangelicals who seem to think that prayer is a cure-all. God save us from fools and madmen. And from Bible-thumpers, ffs. *smh*
    Put them next to someone with HIV/AIDS, their attitude will change REALLLL quick.

    So. Day one of lockdown. It's quiet, like Christmas day quiet. There is roughly 2-3 cars per freight truck. The supermarket I was at was really quiet. With the exception of baking items (flour, yeast) it was fairly well stocked.

    The government did make the decision to allow people the ability to take excercise walks and runs and for the most part people are fine about it. A couple of bad eggs claiming they didn't know about it, but fingers crossed the population stick to the rules.

  14. #1014
    We're only allowed out for groceries, meds and walking the dog. (We have no dog.) The supermarket is right around the corner so it's always pretty fast if you time it well to avoid queuing (they limit it to 10 clients inside at a time)

    Day 15

    My next online purchase is likely to be an exercise bike.

  15. #1015
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    I am loving the silence that is right now at 1 in the morning. No planes, no morning traffic. Ahh.

    Also, just before lockdown. I realised I needed a paper mask for costuming. Went to the shop and couldn't find one. So I came up with a plan...


  16. #1016
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Italians are more likely to have consumed gelato in the past year. Therefore gelato consumption is a risk factor in severity of Covid-19.
    Wait a moment.....

    https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cron...-202002a.shtml


    From 18 to 22 January, the stands of the two main coronavirus outbreaks in Italy and China, Codogno and Wuhan, were found side by side at the Sigep ice cream fair in Rimini. A coincidence reported by the TPI website, which states that, in the same pavilion where the Chinese company was included, there were also companies from Crema and Codogno "with bizarre neighborhoods also with companies from San Marino and Treviso".

    Wuhan Huiyou Wood Products (a company that produces biodegradable objects such as spoons and trays), The Italian point of Nanni Franco di Crema and Pomati Group srl of Codogno appears in the grid of the pavilions, in the one marked with the word B3, consisting of 60 stands. It should also be appealed that the Wuhan lockdown was ordered on January 23, just the day after the closing of the fair.

  17. #1017
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Well I'm on home stay detail starting from today. Like a lot of people predicted, as soon as the Olympics got postponed, the policy changed here quickly ... A lot more testing now & the mayor of Tokyo advised people stay home unless necessary. (It's not a legal order yet though.)

  18. #1018
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Ah, weighting the death per gender here in Italy with the gender distribution per age the result is clear.

    The death rate in the males is 2->4 higher than in the females

    Different hormonal modulation of the inflammation?
    Well, good hypothesis but in 90 yo old too?
    Another hypothesis is the difference in the lung tissues and vessels so we return to the ACE2......in the males there's simply more viruses reaching for the lungs thanks to more ACE2 receptors.

    Ah, another 2006 study about SARS (!)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16303146

    Epidemiologic data suggested that there was an obvious predominance of young adult patients with a slight female proneness in severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) was very recently identified as a functional receptor for SARS virus and is therefore a prime target for pathogenesis and pharmacological intervention. Rats of both genders at three distinct ages (young-adult, 3 months; middle-aged, 12 months; old, 24 months) were evaluated to determine the characteristic of ACE2 expression in lung and the effect of aging and gender on its expression. ACE2 was predominantly expressed in alveolar epithelium, bronchiolar epithelium, endothelium and smooth muscle cells of pulmonary vessels with similar content, whereas no obvious signal was detected in the bronchiolar smooth muscle cells. ACE2 expression is dramatically reduced with aging in both genders: young-adult vs. old P < 0.001 (by 78% in male and 67% in female, respectively) and middle-aged vs. old P < 0.001 (by 71% in male rats and 59% in female rats, respectively). The decrease of ACE2 content was relatively slight between young-adult and middle-aged groups (by 25% in male and 18% in female, respectively). Although there was no gender-related difference of ACE2 in young-adult and middle-aged groups, a significantly higher ACE2 content was detected in old female rats than male. In conclusion, the more elevated ACE2 in young adults as compared to aged groups may contribute to the predominance in SARS attacks in this age group.

  19. #1019
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    The Chinese also saw a much higher death-rate in male as in female. Their explanation was simple: until 20-30 years ago, most of the male population in China smoked cigarettes. While it was somewhat "inappropriate" for Chinese women to smoke. As the majority of deaths (also in China) were elderly people, it can be assumed that a high percentage of those male deaths were smokers (all their lives, or the largest part of their lives). While the large majority of women had never smoked. I've read that the Chinese concluded that after age, they think the 2nd biggest factor is smoking (or having been a smoker).

    I think 40+ years ago, in NL men were heavier smokers than women. E.g. my dad smoked 2 packs of cigarettes a day. (He stopped cold turkey when he was ~40 years old). My mum hardly ever smoked. Nowadays people smoke a lot less (20%+ now ?). But we are emancipated, young women smoke more often than young men.

    I don't know about Italian habits. Especially not from the 50s-80s. But maybe men did smoke a lot more than women back then ? Maybe that explains the difference in ratios ?

  20. #1020
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    I like this one
    (Meme removed)
    GOOD Morning.

  21. #1021
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    The Chinese also saw a much higher death-rate in male as in female. Their explanation was simple: until 20-30 years ago, most of the male population in China smoked cigarettes. While it was somewhat "inappropriate" for Chinese women to smoke. As the majority of deaths (also in China) were elderly people, it can be assumed that a high percentage of those male deaths were smokers (all their lives, or the largest part of their lives). While the large majority of women had never smoked. I've read that the Chinese concluded that after age, they think the 2nd biggest factor is smoking (or having been a smoker).

    I think 40+ years ago, in NL men were heavier smokers than women. E.g. my dad smoked 2 packs of cigarettes a day. (He stopped cold turkey when he was ~40 years old). My mum hardly ever smoked. Nowadays people smoke a lot less (20%+ now ?). But we are emancipated, young women smoke more often than young men.

    I don't know about Italian habits. Especially not from the 50s-80s. But maybe men did smoke a lot more than women back then ? Maybe that explains the difference in ratios ?
    That's the "social" hypothesis.

  22. #1022
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Neat little article from a few days ago, really takes a crack at what the statistics mean:

    Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
    Nonsensical garbage language in title to assure the reader that this is total trash. Ok, i'll bite...

    Mostly because a while back i tried to back-project some useful data out of deaths and got nowhere. Lets see what the smarter guys will do.

    ---------------------------------
    Diamond Princess has very strong selection bias in its population and i would reject it as proxy. Also, small sample size.

    South Korea basis on estimates is better, but still crap. To get some true numbers you need to use antibody checks to fully evaluate age group biases and other possible biases we do not yet know for this virus. People and different countries and locations have different spread patterns / behaviors making infection rate calculations specific to given country / location and tricky as hell. Therefore, even if the number they got from it would not be junk - it would be fairly useless for everywhere else.

    Either one is fairly irrelevant anyway. A death rate difference between 3% and 1% is a few days anyway - the average time-till-death value is bound to be quite dominating (one is few days the other somewhere in weeks). Must get that one right. Which is where i stopped back when i looked into it as i could not find good data for it and also could not estimate death reporting accuracy either (ie. it is dependent on testing coverage which is one of the big question marks to begin with). Too much junk input to be worth my trouble.

    The linked paper does not say what they tell it does. It actually only tells the mean (which is of questionable usefulness for our purpose) time from onset of symptoms till death - 17.8 days. Valid for Wuhan. I personally reject all stats from that region as the situation there was just way too volatile ... but fine ... let's use ~23 with the estimated average incubation period of 5 clumsily added to it.

    Their following math is kinda crap (not counting that all of their input so far has been crap). So, i went with my own (using their garbage as my input - except the death stats which i used my own as that is the only place that can give some semi-useful information and theirs was just crap).

    Death count multiplier is 1.35 ([this is the semi-useful information bit] which should be comparable to the true infection rate we cannot know currently for USA). This is calculated using only the daily deaths in the range where they are numerous enough and not anomalous ( using SLOPE : https://wiki.openoffice.org/wiki/Doc...SLOPE_function ).

    That would give 19396 vs their 25625 infected on February 25th - 123784 vs their 100000 on March 2nd. Both are equally meaningless due to the level on garbage in input data.

    Then they add this bold text (literally bold):
    That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
    No shit you fucking imbeciles! Jesus fucking christ! I hope you all are rolling on floor laughing your asses off right now.

    Ok, this is all i can stomach - i'm out.

  23. #1023
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    302->296 -> -8 deaths


    296 -> 387

    +91 deaths........................

  24. #1024
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    More deaths than in China :/

  25. #1025
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Do these kinds of things happen in other countries, or is just us? Missouri man charged with licking items at Walmart to mock coronavirus fears

    Though I think classifying it as a terrorist threat is a bit extreme, even considering the circumstances. It's criminal,yeah. Reckless? No doubt. But I think under current law, being labeled a terrorist more or less classifies you as an enemy of the state, which this douchebag very much is not.

Page 41 of 122 FirstFirst ... 611162126313637383940414243444546515661667176818691 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •