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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1051
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    News breaking now is that a 17-year old from New Orleans died today. No word on existing conditions yet.
    There was also a 21-year old English girl who died the other day, previously in good health with no known health issues.

    There's nothing magic that happens to one's body at age 20. Low risk doesn't mean no risk.

  2. #1052
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    News breaking now is that a 17-year old from New Orleans died today. No word on existing conditions yet.
    There was also a 21-year old English girl who died the other day, previously in good health with no known health issues.

    There's nothing magic that happens to one's body at age 20. Low risk doesn't mean no risk.
    Not the age of course, but the drugs you take or the inflammation regulation/expression.

    Of course there's no "0 risk" but we got 8.165 death and no one in the age group where the socialization is on top of the priorities.

    Isn't it strange for an ubercontagious disease?
    I mean ZERO here in Italy.

  3. #1053
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Okay then. Apparently the Coronavirus map is lagging a bit. We're not soon to be first in coronavirus cases, we ARE No.1

    I hate to sound like an alarmist here, but since this spread through the country so quickly relative to everywhere else, we're probably gonna get smacked with this 10x as hard as people start dying seemingly all at once, rather than stretched out slowly over an extended period of time. In two weeks, we've surpassed the number China has been building up to for three months now, what took Italy nearly a full month to achieve.

    And since it's still actively spreading here, well, I think we're about to become the world model for the worst case scenario.

    I hope I'm being overly dramatic here, but this doesn't look good.

  4. #1054
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Good luck yankees

  5. #1055
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Hopes and prayers!

  6. #1056
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Hopes and prayers!
    More prayers less spreaders......

  7. #1057
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    We had a bad day
    And so did a lot of countries unfortunately.

    I still think India could be the worst case scenario. Fortunately, they seem to be imposing a very tight shutdown relatively early.
    And at some point, this is going to hit the various refugee camps around the world, and that's going to be a disaster.

    EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time. However, I expect we will follow the model of our Southern neighbor, Massachusetts, and define "essential businesses" so broadly that half the state is still open for business.
    Last edited by heywood; 26th Mar 2020 at 18:15.

  8. #1058
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    Somehow Massachusettes being described as Southern and kook conservative, in this context at least, is a fitting sign of how surreal our world is now.

    You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.

  9. #1059
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post

    Isn't it strange for an ubercontagious disease?
    No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.

    Please just stop. Almost all of your posts on the scientific aspects of this have been incorrect. I appreciate that you're interested in it, and the papers you link to are (mostly) interesting. But you're jumping to conclusions and making declarations that just aren't true.


    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I hate to sound like an alarmist here, but since this spread through the country so quickly relative to everywhere else, we're probably gonna get smacked with this 10x as hard as people start dying seemingly all at once

    I hope I'm being overly dramatic here, but this doesn't look good.
    I've been saying this for the past 2 weeks - the USA is where the real disaster will happen. You TTLGer's need to stay the hell indoors.

    It's because of a number of factors, but it really boils down to the entire set-up, the entire culture. And it's compounded by Trump being in power. If it were Obama I really think it's be different. Still dreadful, but just not AS dreadful. The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.

    Though Trump's travel restrictions were ahead of the curve and that stimulus package is impressive.

    It's too late, sadly. The death toll in the USA will be the worst on the planet, maybe by several factors. That's my unfortunate prediction.

  10. #1060
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I can tell you how the south we'll react. We have people in Tennessee begging for a full lockdown, but the governor is sticking strong to the "just be careful" line, and handing off the real decision making to the city governments. The governor of Louisiana has stated he will not put the state into lockdown.

    Meanwhile, people are STILL going on as if it's life as usual. The roads are a little less busy, but that's about it.

  11. #1061
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.
    We can. We've done it before. We're not going to now though, because everything's political.

  12. #1062
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    EDIT: On another note, the Governor of my state (NH) just announced a closure of non-essential businesses and a stay-at-home order. FINALLY. I know we only had 137 confirmed cases, but damn, it's about time.
    Color me surprised- don't you guys still have 'Live Free Or Die' on your license plates as standard-issue? Good to see them taking it seriously, New York is looking more and more like The Division with each passing day.

    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    You can imagine how the actual South is going to react. I imagine they'll hold off tooth and nail until they're forced by the sheer scale of this thing to relent, and even then I imagine they'll botch the lock down. I'm quite self-conscious that the most irresponsible statements, the ones getting shared as memes of the lengths, or is it depths?, of "American stupidity", have been coming from politicians from my home state of Texas.
    Here in Virginia- the northern, liberal enclave of Virginia- I'm watching my local neighbors on Nextdoor argue that it's all a hoax, proudly boasting that they went to stores and mingled with hundreds of other people. Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon. Then there are others saying oh well, big deal, we'll probably mostly catch it, and ignoring the pretty simple math on what that translates to.

    It's nice to see some members of the community telling them to shut the fuck up, but yeah, I'm worried. Both my wife and I have government contracting jobs and we're both able to work from home, and all our fresh food is delivered from a local farm, so we don't have any real need to leave the house (at least, as long as the farm is delivering). But I'm worried that we're not just going to see a lot of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals; temporary societal breakdown isn't looking out of the question.

    I'm getting sick of these rugged survivalists touting how ready they are for the apocalypse. Like it's something they actually want.

    I wish there was more we could do.

  13. #1063
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Some others are then excitedly posting every new bit of news they hear about chloroquine, including touting it as a cure because Sean Hannity had some guy who survived the virus on his show (?), and that we don't need to worry because everyone will be cured soon.
    I'm beginning to think that maybe we should put some containers of fish tank cleaner on the side of the road somewhere, and let nature take its course.

  14. #1064
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    No, not at all. R0 is not related to lethality.
    To be precise R0 is related to lethality: No contagion -> no death

    The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
    And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.

    So don't tell me "it's not related" when you see a perfect ZERO where the contagion spreads the most with subclinical symptoms and so underestimated.
    Last edited by lowenz; 26th Mar 2020 at 20:46.

  15. #1065
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Please just stop. Almost all of your posts on the scientific aspects of this have been incorrect.
    And your textbook truism is? Are you serious or not?

  16. #1066
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    YO! SIMMER DOWN NOW!

  17. #1067
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Now Trump wants to put troops on the Canadian Border, for fuck's sake! Hey, Donny! Believe me, Canadians do not want to storm the 49th to gobble up your "pay as you go" healthcare system. But if the soldiers will keep Yankees from escaping north, spreading infections and overwhelming our hospitals, they can stand on guard for thee as well.

  18. #1068
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
    And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.
    But they aren't.

    As of March 26 only 1.2% of cases in Italy are under 18. And 25% of cases are between 19 and 50 years of age.

    The rest - 75% ish - are over 50.

    So under 30s and under 20s are NOT "the most infected part of the population".

    Why must we do this?

  19. #1069
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    So, it looks like the Reagan dream is coming true: Lord Dampnut said again that it would be up to the individual states to get the equipment they need and the role of the federal government is to be a backup and stay in the sidelines. I mean, I get it that it fits with the US concept of what the government's role is and that business and free markets can sort everything out by themselves, but isn't forcing individual states to compete for limited supplies on the open market just going to needlessly drive up prices and screw over the less wealthy states?

    Oh well, at least their legislative branch seems to be doing something.

  20. #1070
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    But they aren't.

    As of March 26 only 1.2% of cases in Italy are under 18. And 25% of cases are between 19 and 50 years of age.

    The rest - 75% ish - are over 50.

    So under 30s and under 20s are NOT "the most infected part of the population".

    Why must we do this?
    Because they're NOT screening the young people with NO severe symptoms. NO SCREENING at all outside the hospitals. Of course the numbers are totally "wrong", like the ones of deads with NO test done on the body.
    Our physicians can't do that and can't prescribe the test 'cause we have NO test kits outside the hospitals here in Lombardy.
    Run out of kits!
    Everybody here thinks that the number are totally wrong (virologists too), because we are screening only the ones with an advanced stage pneumonia symptoms!
    Of course we got those elder people numbers but we're totally missing the expression of the infection in young people if not related to some hospitalized old man or woman (parents / grandparents)!


    And the "test results" are not even solid evidence about the "real" numbers and the predictions, we must search for the Ig in the blood to have some solid evidence!
    Last edited by lowenz; 27th Mar 2020 at 03:33.

  21. #1071
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Add the fact that "clinical recovered" patients are NOT virus-free, only "symptoms free"+"negative test result for some days" (no virus in the mouth, can't say anything other! No information about Ig level in the blood! )

    So maybe we're injecting infectious people with a subclinical cronic condition in the population (like the young people maybe already are)

  22. #1072
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2005
    Location: Netherlands
    An almost empty Amsterdam has a strange kind of beauty.


  23. #1073
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    This was St Kilda beach in VIC today:



    Absolute fucking idiots. When interviewed they responded that well there isn't enough cops to move us all, so what are they going to do about it? And that's why the virus numbers are what they are, because of fucking idiots like them.

    An hour later the local council ordered that the beach be shutdown and banned for public use, for the foreseeable future. Cops soon arrived and made them all leave.

  24. #1074
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    All they need to do is get a bunch of people to rush the beaches coughing, then watch everyone clear out of there like a Benny Hill skit.

  25. #1075
    Member
    Registered: May 2004

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