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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1101
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Any available excuse to do what they wanted to do all along anyway.

  2. #1102
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Pretty much. They'll let no crisis go unexploited.

  3. #1103
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2001
    Location: uk
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    There was also a 21-year old English girl who died the other day, previously in good health with no known health issues.
    Died of a heart attack apparently and had not tested positive. The youngest death in the UK caused by covid-19 is 28 (younger people with it have died of other causes)

    That's not a massively more optimistic number though :/

  4. #1104
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    At least they got to see some bead tiddies before they died.
    seems shit is hitting the fan in Spain,
    https://www.facebook.com/TeddyM67/vi...6960921401954/
    those over 65 are being sedated so they die.

  5. #1105
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by demagogue View Post
    Somehow Massachusettes being described as Southern and kook conservative, in this context at least, is a fitting sign of how surreal our world is now.
    He he. Well, MA may be very blue in the political sense, but it's also blue in the blue chip sense. The Boston area has a lot of big companies, a lot of wealth, a lot of startups, a lot of venture capital, a lot of bright and eager young people who came here for a STEM degree and entered the work force, and a lot of upper middle class professionals with fat retirement accounts. So socially, it's a bit lefty, but economically, it's center-right.

    NH's stay-at-home order turned out even looser than MA. In MA, they exempted a long and broad list of business categories. In NH, we gave a blanket exemption for the whole manufacturing sector. In practice they will be about the same. Everybody who can get work done at home will do so as much as possible. Companies expect that people will still come in to perform work that has to be done on company premises or at a job site. While at work, people are expected to maintain social distancing guidelines, sanitize what they touch, etc. But by and large, they don't.

    The Governor of MA just announced this afternoon that all travelers entering MA should self-quarantine for 14 days. It's all voluntary, no enforcement. Here in New England where states are small, there's hundreds of thousands of people who cross state borders on a normal weekday to go to work. With no enforcement, I expect that will continue unabated since companies won't voluntarily shut down. So I'm not sure what that order was supposed to do: perhaps dissuade some New Yorkers?

    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    It's because of a number of factors, but it really boils down to the entire set-up, the entire culture. And it's compounded by Trump being in power. If it were Obama I really think it's be different. Still dreadful, but just not AS dreadful. The mix of your healthcare, your politics and your disparate rules in different states mean the nation can not mount a unified, utilitarian and humanitarian response.
    How is that different from Europe though? Perhaps I'm just not seeing it from over here, but I don't see the EU leadership doing a whole lot to coordinate & unify the response across Europe. It seems like all the member states are making their own policy and fending for themselves.

    I think we're probably equally fucked, as is most of the world. We didn't stop it when it was small enough to be contained.

    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Color me surprised- don't you guys still have 'Live Free Or Die' on your license plates as standard-issue? Good to see them taking it seriously, New York is looking more and more like The Division with each passing day.
    It's just a slogan. There's really not a big number of libertarian fundamentalists here aside from the free staters who moved here based on a slogan. NH culture is more about being independent and self-reliant. A few bullet points to sum it up:
    - local politics > state politics > national politics
    - it's my property, don't tell me what I can't do with it
    - it's your body, none of my business what you do with it
    - government and business should run a tight ship
    - religion ain't all that
    - get off of my lawn
    - not in my backyard

    Of course, we're not monolithic, so there's people from both ends of the political spectrum, but that's the gist. Not saying it all fits me, but some of it does.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pyrian View Post
    Any available excuse to do what they wanted to do all along anyway.
    Yep.
    Last edited by heywood; 27th Mar 2020 at 18:12.

  6. #1106
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    seems shit is hitting the fan in Spain,
    https://www.facebook.com/TeddyM67/vi...6960921401954/
    those over 65 are being sedated so they die.
    God, that's terrible. I really hope things don't get that bad here.

  7. #1107
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    President Trump signs $2 Trillion Coronavirus Rescue Package (H.R. 748)


  8. #1108
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus

  9. #1109
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    seems shit is hitting the fan in Spain,
    https://www.facebook.com/TeddyM67/vi...6960921401954/
    those over 65 are being sedated so they die.
    Link goes nowhere.

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    To be precise R0 is related to lethality: No contagion -> no death
    You can have an R0 of 100 but if the infection is not deadly it will kill no one.

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Because they're NOT screening the young people with NO severe symptoms. NO SCREENING at all outside the hospitals. Of course the numbers are totally "wrong", like the ones of deads with NO test done on the body.
    That's a beautiful tinfoil hat.

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Variations in the ACE2 gene that alter the receptor could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into cells, says immunologist Philip Murphy
    Could.

    Easier.

    Or harder

    Of course he's mad and he doesn't understand how science works......
    No he does, but it's no clear that you don't

    For now, I'll take the word of the British government who, you know, have experts or whatever working on this over some random dude on TTLG re: ACE inhibitors.

  10. #1110
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    OUR GOVT at work.
    It's exactly what we did in 2008, but bigger. It's annoying as shit, watching all these companies be rewarded for their bad judgement and greed, but I guess it's preferable to outright destitution.

  11. #1111
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    That's a beautiful tinfoil hat..
    I repeat, are you serious or not?

    NO SCREENING at all outside the hospitals

    Dead bodies @home are NOT tested.

  12. #1112
    I’m not usually one for self-promotion but my employer built a reference website for covid-19 that’s actually pretty neat and useful: https://covid19.inbenta.com/home

  13. #1113
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    It's just a slogan. There's really not a big number of libertarian fundamentalists here aside from the free staters who moved here based on a slogan. NH culture is more about being independent and self-reliant. A few bullet points to sum it up:
    - local politics > state politics > national politics
    - it's my property, don't tell me what I can't do with it
    - it's your body, none of my business what you do with it
    - government and business should run a tight ship
    - religion ain't all that
    - get off of my lawn
    - not in my backyard

    Of course, we're not monolithic, so there's people from both ends of the political spectrum, but that's the gist. Not saying it all fits me, but some of it does.
    My now-wife spent a couple of years just outside Dover before moving in with me, so I've been to NH a fair bit. My surprise comes from how, thus far in the crisis, the 'it's my property, don't tell me what I can't do with it' types have been screaming bloody murder at business shutdowns and quarantines, and the states that are beholden to those individuals (most of the South, at the moment) have done basically nothing. I'd have expected that to be true for NH as well.

    I actually really miss New Hampshire. It was a heck of a difference from yuppie DC suburbia. I'd have rather moved in with her than vice versa, but there weren't any jobs up there in my line of work. I guess I can just order Moxie off Amazon and plan my retirement.

  14. #1114
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I do think it's kinda funny how the same people who hate Bernie because he's allegedly communist who honeymooned in the Soviet Union, and call Biden a Marxist socialist are now the same people screaming for their government check.

    WE'RE NOT GETTING OUR THOUSAND BUCKS FOR THREE WEEKS? BUT I NEED IT NOW!

    Then again, watching the hardcore Trump fanatics rewrite recent history in realtime as they shift their opinions around to match it is something that never ceases to amaze me.

  15. #1115
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Now this is depressing. Based upon known data gathered from other currently proceeding outbreaks, and going by current upward trends, this is the projected resource and death curve here in the United States. You can break everything down by state, but if this is correct, we should hit the peak of this around the middle of April, and be out the other side by the beginning of July.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Try not to look at the death peak.

  16. #1116
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    You have always been at war with Eastasia.

    Since I have no reference point, how far does a thousand bucks stretch anyway? Can it pay the rent for a couple of months?

  17. #1117
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Depends on where you live. On average, I'd say it's about a month's rent for a really cheap apartment.

    Down here, it's about 4-5 weeks worth of groceries too.

  18. #1118
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post

    NO SCREENING at all outside the hospitals
    This is a town in Italy that had mass testing. That alone proves you wrong. Again.

    Let's see what happens if this works out, because you're just giving your opinion (without evidence) on these things now.

    Please stop.
    Last edited by SubJeff; 28th Mar 2020 at 04:33.

  19. #1119
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    This is a town in Italy that had mass testing. That alone proves you wrong. Again.

    Let's see what happens if this works out, because you're just giving your opinion (without evidence) on these things now.

    Please stop.
    IN LOMBARDY (Christ, LOMBARDY, NOT VENETO) there's no test outside the hospitals.

    I repeat, in LOMBARDY there's not test outside the hospitals.
    And in BERGAMO (a province of Lombardy) we don't even have more coffins! 200 deaths day by day!

    You're simply an arrongant idiot, if you can't find the difference between 2 different regions!

    The tests in VENETO are for political reasons (Zaia and his re-election), they have NO deaths high count!
    Last edited by lowenz; 28th Mar 2020 at 07:17.

  20. #1120
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Now you can see the "expert" level.

    They totally don't know what they're talking about. Simple textbook models / work habit and no reality grip.

  21. #1121
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    IN LOMBARDY (Christ, LOMBARDY, NOT VENETO) there's no test outside the hospitals.

    I repeat, in LOMBARDY there's not test outside the hospitals.
    No, we were talking about ITALY, because you said (I've added the emphasis).

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    The problem here (in Italy) is there is NO death AT ALL in the healthy population under 30 years an NO death - period - in population under 20 years.
    And these are probably the most infected part of the population 'cause of the socialization aspects of those age groups.
    There being no testing outside the hospitals in Lombardy may be true, I don't know. But we were talking about the overall deaths in Italy as it relates to under 30s and 20s and the potential unknown rate of infections in an untested population.

    Anyway, I'm done. Say what you like about this whole thing all you like, I'm not going to engage/challenge anything you post I think is incorrect anymore.

  22. #1122
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Now this is depressing. Based upon known data gathered from other currently proceeding outbreaks, and going by current upward trends, this is the projected resource and death curve here in the United States. You can break everything down by state, but if this is correct, we should hit the peak of this around the middle of April, and be out the other side by the beginning of July.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Try not to look at the death peak.
    Looks overly optimistic. Checked NY predictions there - and they predict peak resource usage around 7th April. The first meaningful restrictions started at March 20. That is barely enough time to start slowing down the spread (incubation alone is 2-14 days) - let alone the peak in resource needs. Especially as hospital resource needs lag much more and ventilator needs lag and overlap even more (much more!). They predict the reverse of lag (ie. they are mostly needed before the peak of patients arrive and before they start needing ventilators) - which sounds completely batshit to me. Peak ventilator need is predicted a bit over 4000*2=8000 (*2 for a safety margin) vs what NY currently predicts - 40000. Maybe i missed something (quite possible ... in my comfy chair at the other side of the planet) but one of thous i find eminently more believable.

  23. #1123
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    My now-wife spent a couple of years just outside Dover before moving in with me, so I've been to NH a fair bit. My surprise comes from how, thus far in the crisis, the 'it's my property, don't tell me what I can't do with it' types have been screaming bloody murder at business shutdowns and quarantines, and the states that are beholden to those individuals (most of the South, at the moment) have done basically nothing. I'd have expected that to be true for NH as well.

    I actually really miss New Hampshire. It was a heck of a difference from yuppie DC suburbia. I'd have rather moved in with her than vice versa, but there weren't any jobs up there in my line of work. I guess I can just order Moxie off Amazon and plan my retirement.
    Dover and the sea coast area is the more liberal part of the state. As you go into the more sparsely populated regions, you'll find more people with a fiercely independent or libertarian streak, the kind that gave the state it's reputation.

    You could do like I did and find a place in the Southern part of the state that's close to a metro Boston commuter corridor, but still has a NH character. That opens up the possibility of working in Boston's northern suburbs where there's jobs of all sorts. My wife even worked in Cambridge, MA for a few years, but the commute was pretty brutal.

    Anyway, I like living where I live. There's plenty of work, cost of living is not outrageous, schools are OK, people are pretty sane. Most of all, there's seemingly endless ways to spend your weekends. I can't think of any other part of the country that offers a similar variety of things to do and recreational opportunities within reasonable driving distance for a day trip or overnight.

    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Now this is depressing. Based upon known data gathered from other currently proceeding outbreaks, and going by current upward trends, this is the projected resource and death curve here in the United States. You can break everything down by state, but if this is correct, we should hit the peak of this around the middle of April, and be out the other side by the beginning of July.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    Try not to look at the death peak.
    That looks optimistic.

    Here's a local article I was reading yesterday. Projections from the UPenn CHIME model suggest up to 2500 hospital beds will be needed just for one medium-sized city (Nashua), while the healthdata.org link projects 1027 beds needed in total for the whole state.

    https://www.unionleader.com/news/hea...ce90471f6.html

    Also, Gov Cuomo has been saying New York is expected to take 3 more weeks to peak out, and up to 140k beds will be needed. The healthdata.org projection shows New York peaking one week from now and needing 48k beds. I certainly hope the latter is closer to the truth.

  24. #1124
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    People, do you know where are the testing stats for your country (test completed for every day)? Specifically: Italy, Germany, Spain, France and USA (*).
    I don't know if you find these interesting, but Dutch numbers can be found here: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...72254029bf6251
    Updated once a day, around 14:00-15:00.

    The graph on the right is the most intesting:
    "Totale gegevens door de tijd" -> "Total data over time"
    "Totaal bevestigd aantal besmettingen" (yellow) -> "Total count of infections"
    "Totaal aantal overledenen" (red) -> "Total amount of deceased"
    "Totaal aantal opgenomen (geweest) in ziekenhuis" (blue) -> "Total amount of hospitalized patients, now and in the past"
    "Totaal aantal opgenomen (geweest) op IC" (purple) -> "Total amount of patients in ICUs, now and in the past"

    What is missing here is the current number of people in hospital and the current number of people in ICU.
    The daily number of people in ICU is published each day, but not in this overview.

    I still look at these number every day. But I stopped doing my simple math and drawing my own conclusions.
    The reason is that the meaning of these numbers sometimes change.
    E.g. we have a huge shortage of tests here, so many people are not tested. We all know that the number of infected in these stats is the number of positively tested people. But we have no idea how many people are really infected. We also have no clue how many people recovered. And no clue what percentage of infected show symptoms. Our ICUs are almost at capacity, and doctors are starting to become stricter about who can go into ICU. This has an impact on number of people in ICU. So as we go along, all the numbers are changing or will be changing their meaning.

    Good news: we received a 100 ventilators from Philips USA (a Dutch medical company) today. That number should increase to a 1000 this week. This was uncertain because Trump had said this week that all the medical equipment produced in the US should go to US patients. Other good news: Germany has a lot more ICU beds than NL (I think I heard 7x more!). Germany has offered surrounding countries that they could take in some ICU patients. Very kind.

    Anyway, my own conclusions were: if a country doesn't do anything (no lockdown, etc), all the numbers (infected, ill, hospitalized, in ICU, deaths) will double every 3 days. When a country does do some form of lockdown, all the numbers will keep doubling, only at a slower rate. Maybe once every 5 days, or once every 7 days. As I said, I'm not trying to compute these numbers myself anymore (for NL) because the numbers keep changing their exact meaning.

  25. #1125
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    No, we were talking about ITALY, because you said (I've added the emphasis).



    There being no testing outside the hospitals in Lombardy may be true, I don't know. But we were talking about the overall deaths in Italy as it relates to under 30s and 20s and the potential unknown rate of infections in an untested population.

    Anyway, I'm done. Say what you like about this whole thing all you like, I'm not going to engage/challenge anything you post I think is incorrect anymore.
    The "test outside the hospitals" is referred to LOMBARDY.

    You've pinpointed a case that is NOT in Lombardy, but in another region. And it's a POLITICAL move of its governor, Zaia, 'cause in Veneto there's NO high count of deaths for now.
    It was only a fluke related to the start of the phenomenon (Vo' Euganeo was the second town in Italy with deaths when the epidemy has started, but it's literally an anomaly in Veneto region)

    Here in Lombardy (not in Italy) we are on a total different level and very MAD at Zaia because he did waste so many test kits for POLITICAL reasons.

    http://news.mit.edu/2020/peptide-dru...-19-cells-0327

    Studies of SARS-CoV-2 have also shown that a specific region of the spike protein, known as the receptor binding domain, binds to a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This receptor is found on the surface of many human cells, including those in the lungs. The ACE2 receptor is also the entry point used by the coronavirus that caused the 2002-03 SARS outbreak.

    And males and females have an important difference about ACE2 receptors in the lungs.
    So of course the ACE-inhibitors are *candidates* as virus enablers (facilitators), seeing the gender distribution in population (you must use it as a weight in the distribution) AND in deaths!

    The infection has NO preferences, ma but the *expression* of the infection as a killer pneumonia really happens in males 4->8 times more!

    4->8 times more in 9100 deaths, it can't be a coincidence! And so it's only natural to think about ACE2 and virus sinergy with ACE-inhibitors taken by elders!
    Last edited by lowenz; 28th Mar 2020 at 13:07.

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