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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1126
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Italy: 9100 deaths.....after 1 month from the outbreak



    Sigh, never thought we could get over 10.000 but now.....20.000/30.000

    2 weeks of lockdown.

    (Uncle stille alive after 2 weeks from fever spike episode! 81 yo, liver cancer last year, what a badass )
    DAMN, +900 deaths today too
    +1400 recovered!

    ICU still increasing.....


  2. #1127
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    My tracking update.

    old:

    new:


    blue = new cases
    red = growth rate based on last days
    green = tests performed
    yellow = deaths

    est = Proper testing has only started (3.5 days) - catching up. Added the testing stats for every given day to the graph. Restrictions have been in place for quite some time though - so, bound to have smothered the spread a bit. Will see in a week.
    ita = Growth rate 1. There likely are not enough test being done. Should not affect the red line though. Deaths, with a lag, seem to confirm too - probable apex looming. Unable to find testing data.
    ger = Minor dip, but still ~1.1 rate. No idea what restrictions are enforced and since when. It is said that they test a lot - and count of deaths supports that. Unable to find testing data.
    kor = Still stable and even still falling. Testing data is available: wow, capped (presumably, but why else is there such a visible cap) their testing capacity early and keep using it all. Consistently 100 tests per one positive found.
    usa = Everything is a mess. Blue line is too volatile to be trusted without having a good green stat - and green is pure garbage on CDC page (!? ... how do you respond to this kind of crisis without centralized data ... PUBLIC data ... where is the centralized public data?). Yellow is the only reliable line. Unable to find USABLE testing data.
    spa = No change or slightly worse than before - when it was already worrying enough. Spread rate higher than what the world has is not good. Based on proximity of blue and yellow (keeping lag/spread rate in mind) - they are not doing enough tests. Very worrying situation and does not seem to improve. Unable to find testing data.
    fra = No change. No curve for yellow either :/. Unable to find testing data.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I don't know if you find these interesting, but Dutch numbers can be found here
    No testing data though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I still look at these number every day. But I stopped doing my simple math and drawing my own conclusions.
    The reason is that the meaning of these numbers sometimes change.
    Yes, that is a common problem. However, deaths are fairly reliable (non-hospitalized deaths that might go untested are unlikely to matter) and serve as proxy for the rest to squeeze some comparative conclusions out of. Similarly, but to a much more timely and usable degree, would the testing stats help. Testing essentially tells how easy it is to find positives in any of the changing circumstances. Ex: Easy = possibly only tested when hospitalization is needed.

    Also, the meaning of the numbers likely changes fairly gradually - which is good enough for trends etc.

    I keep doing it because i cannot find the data anywhere else in the form i find most useful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Germany has offered surrounding countries that they could take in some ICU patients. Very kind.
    Yes. I remember reading them already doing that to some other border region i cannot name atm (France-something?).

  3. #1128
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Lombardy vs Veneto (6000 deaths vs 350......and see how much test kits the Veneto governor did "steal" from us - 90.000 FUCKING 90.000 kits - for 350 deaths vs 6000 but in reality they are 10.000 )



    Last edited by lowenz; 28th Mar 2020 at 13:34.

  4. #1129
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    387 deaths yesterday -> 541 deaths today (...................................)

    +154 death, new tragic acceleration..........


    -> 542 deaths today, +1 since yesterday


    More deaths today in Lombardy than in Veneto since the start of this horror!

    And his governor got 90.000 kits, 90K...............

  5. #1130
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night

  6. #1131
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Aye Aye

  7. #1132
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    So "official" death rate here is 15%.......and not official (adding the not tested deads)? 20%

    Think of same thing in New York, Connecticut (why this name sounds so strange to me since ever.... connect&cut), North Carolina, etc etc etc

  8. #1133
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    It's pronounced cuh-neh-tuh-cut.

  9. #1134
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    English pronunciation is so.....alQQQQQemic.

  10. #1135
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    OK, data of the province of Bergamo.

    200 deaths yesterday (peak)
    140-150 deaths today
    1750 since the beginning + 250/500 not tested

    So much for the Atalanta match.....what a price.


    My town (Pontida - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontida ), 3300 inhabitants (typical town of elders)

    ~15 deaths since the beginning
    16 positive ones to yesterday and so ~60 (3-4 family members) people in strict quarantine
    Last edited by lowenz; 28th Mar 2020 at 14:50.

  11. #1136
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    So "official" death rate here is 15%.......and not official (adding the not tested deads)? 20%
    Percent of what ?
    15% of infected ? 15% of tested infected ? 15% of hospitalized ? 15% of people in ICU ?
    Without knowning what all these numbers (from all around the world) mean, they are kinda pointless to me. Except for indicating this is a serious problem. But we already knew that.

    I assume you mean: deathrate in Lombardia is 15% of tested infected ?
    We still don't know how many infected there really are. And how many recovered. How many are immune (is that possible ?).

    So the interesting numbers are:

    unknown infected without symptoms
    unknown infected with symptoms
    confirmed infected (by test)
    infected and ill at home
    hospitalized
    in ICU
    dead

    It would be nice to also have these statistics in 3 forms: current, recovered, total.
    Well, for the "unknown infected", of course we can't have statistics now. Maybe in a few months or years, we'll know how widespread the infection itself was. Even people dying these weeks might not be officially counted as "death because of covid-19". I don't think autopsy/testing is done on all deceased.

    Maybe once the percentage of total infected (including untested infected) approached 80-90% of the population, then we'll know more. When almost everyone has been infected, numbers will stabelize. And assuming every has been infected, and all infected who would get ill are already ill, then we can finally see the real percentages. That might take 6-18 months.

  12. #1137
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Of course infected ones, you can do the maths man: the numbers are there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    How many are immune (is that possible ?).
    There's no "immunity". The virus can infect virtually everyone and replicates in the tissues it has affinity for, simple as that. Like every virus.
    For this Coronavirus the preferred targets are the lung tissues and the kidney tissues.
    Starting from the mouth and the throat mucosa (it can replicate there too, so the contagion by "asymptomatic" individuals )
    In certain people there's something (see my words about ACE2) that pulls immediately the virus to the lungs and those people are the ones developing the (classic) viral AND the interstitial pneumonia.
    The interstitial pneumonia is a reactive pneumonia caused by the inflammation process preceding the real "battle" against the virus.
    On genetic (?) base some people are literally killed by the interstitial pneumonia flooding the lungs with blood and water, to the point there's no space for air-blood exchange of O2 and CO2.

    So you die of hypoxia (several dynamics of death)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Well, for the "unknown infected", of course we can't have statistics now. Maybe in a few months or years, we'll know how widespread the infection itself was. Even people dying these weeks might not be officially counted as "death because of covid-19". I don't think autopsy/testing is done on all deceased.
    That's our problem here now.
    All numbers are FUBAR.

    Some towns claim that covid-19 related (direct or indirect cause of death) deaths occuring these days are THREE (!) times higher than the registered ones in relationship with a positive result of the test.
    Sometimes because the person dies at home with the fever and shortness of breath and no test is done after on the body (let alone the autopsy!). We have literally NO test kits outside the hospitals.
    Same thing in several hospitalization structures for the elderly: we have plenty of them, so imagine all those silent deaths away from the hospitals!

    And we don't even have the coffins now.....kind of freakish.

    One "good thing": since the quarantine started there are ~0 deaths from car accidents.

    Addendum: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...pandemic?rss=1

    https://my.clevelandclinic.org/healt...pneumonia-nsip

    What causes nonspecific interstitial pneumonia?
    No one is really sure what causes NSIP. Many researchers believe that it is an autoimmune disease, because of the similarities between NSIP and certain connective tissue diseases, such as systemic sclerosis. Some researchers suggest that genes are involved, with heredity playing a role in its development. Inhaling chemicals or dust, use of certain chemotherapy drugs, or radiation treatment could result in the lung damage associated with NSIP.


    And now we freely got (in Italy) ~50.000 cases in one month proving that the interstitial pneumonia is of course autoimmune when in presense of SARS(cov)2 infection acting as a trigger.
    You know, SCIENCE. Here we are.

  13. #1138
    Administrator
    Registered: Oct 2000
    Location: Athens of the North
    Please don't post 5 times in a row - if you need to add more information then edit your last post. Posts merged.

  14. #1139
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Thanks

  15. #1140
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/death-rat...013233879.html


    SHOULD have dropped a nuke in N.O. while mardi grass was going on, that way the death would be concentrated to the morons and not spread around other states as the clowns traveled back home.
    I've since read more about this, and I feel the need to correct my initial opinion that the fault lies more with New Orleans' mayor than the government.

    Apparently, Nawlin's government was working with a federal terrorist and threat assessment task force while setting things up for Mardi Gras. When the mayor asked if she should consider postponing things due to concerns over coronavirus, they told her it was nothing to be worried about, and to go ahead with the parade.

    If this is true, then it does make Trump responsible. He's the head of the government. He sets policy. He wanted to ignore the threat until it could be ignored no longer, and here we are.

  16. #1141
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nkhn...ature=emb_logo

    Friday perfect condition -> Wednesday death ?

    It's impossible without a severe immunodepression.
    My 81 yo uncle is still alive after 2 weeks and he lived all his life drinking (LOL), have you present the Zane character from Borderlands 3? That kind of man, perfectly filling that role (assassination apart )
    Well, the first time he risked death was the same day of his baptism, 6 febraury 1939 falling in the snow @6AM some hours after the birth

  17. #1142
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    We're now starting to see riots in China...




    Fighting erupts at Chinese bridge between Hubei, Jiangxi provinces

    March 27 (UPI) -- Police in China clashed with each other and with people trying to cross a bridge between Hubei and Jiangxi provinces, according to footage uploaded to Chinese social media on Friday.

    Video taken at the bridge Friday afternoon at the Yangtze River shows the escalation of violence as people try to leave Hubei, while police on the other side in Jiangxi try to block their passage, Canada's Globe and Mail reported.

    The skirmish was filmed two days after Chinese authorities lifted travel restrictions against Hubei residents. China has resumed operations of trains and buses out of the coronavirus-hit province. On Friday, the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, was reclassified as a "medium risk" zone after being assigned a "high risk" rating since January.

  18. #1143
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Can't say they don't deserve it.

  19. #1144
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    3 days interval deaths variation in the typical age group of TTLG members (?)
    Italy wide

    40->50
    blue=male / rose=female



    3 males for 1 woman.

    Italian population distribution for M:F in that age group is 1:1
    So no need to weight the data.
    Last edited by lowenz; 28th Mar 2020 at 17:18.

  20. #1145
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Qantas
    Quote Originally Posted by Vae View Post
    We're now starting to see riots in China...



    Fighting erupts at Chinese bridge between Hubei, Jiangxi provinces
    I expect we'll be seeing this here too. In China, the people don't trust the federal government, for good reasons of course. So when the government re-classified Wuhan as medium-risk, the neighboring province of Jiangxi didn't buy it and mayhem ensued.

    We have a similar situation here in New England, with New York City just a few hours drive away. The state of Rhode Island now has the National Guard going door-to-door tracking down refugees from New York.

    In the meantime, the Shiite Houthis in Yemen are taking advantage of the distractions to fire missiles into Saudi Arabia. I expect that to be an increasing trend all over the globe. This virus is going to be an insurgent's dream.

  21. #1146
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Someone describes their experience of coming down with COVID-19 in a case that was classified as mild:

    https://twitter.com/ShirazMaher/stat...54346396246018

  22. #1147
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Someone describes their experience of coming down with COVID-19 in a case that was classified as mild:

    https://twitter.com/ShirazMaher/stat...54346396246018
    The cough was dry and unlike anything I've ever had before. It was much more extreme and pronounced than a dry cough you might have during a bout of the flu. It feels like there's something deeply lodged within your lungs, that they're (violently) trying to eject.
    Of course, there's nothing to actually eject. The resulting cough is dusty, dry and painful. Much more scary is that you're unsure of when you'll stop coughing. You have no control over it. There were times I was worried I'd start vomiting because the coughing was so severe.


    Exactly.

  23. #1148
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    We are at officially one dead.

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