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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1251
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Sulphur View Post
    certain mindsets
    If you want MOAR "pseudoscience" as you see my posts translate this

    https://www.globalist.it/science/202...Sx3PoGGmH_l86g

    Quarantine=intrafamily contagion spike (pseudoscience! it's not peer-reviewed! fake news!)

  2. #1252
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Any time you feel the need to post in big bold underlined letters, I think it's a time to take a step back, breathe in deeply, and consider whether you're perhaps getting too emotional.

    Sulphur went maybe a bit over the line -- I think the manchild part at least was uncalled for -- but he's not wrong. You do come off a bit unhinged. And I get it -- it's a scary time and it's natural to be afraid and panicking. But it's also not helping anyone. Right now is not the time for jumping to conclusions or making hasty judgments.

    There are many, many variables that complicate the picture -- so hanging onto one aspect and emphasising it over and over again is not all that helpful and neither is making any definite statements about the disease just based on Italy (let alone Lombardy). There are lots and lots of things that can skew the picture in Italy compared with other countries, not the least of it is that Italy has the second oldest population in the world (in Italy, the median age of patients is 67 years, while in China it has been 46 years). And there are substantial disparities with testing and recording and reporting between individual countries. And we don't really know how things like air pollution and smoking tie into this. In fact, there are so many things we don't know about this disease yet that trying to interpret findings (especially as reported by non-scientists without the relevant expertise) based on incomplete data is extremely irresponsible.

  3. #1253
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Getting back to conspiracy theories, the evangelicals take the cake, the candles, and come back for seconds:

    <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/397971695" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/29/chruc...tYKaAq5jU1BuzE

    [...]
    The River Church in Tampa was packed to the gills with worshipers who clearly were looking for hope. Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, who presides over the megachurch and has been reportedly defiant over social distancing, has claimed he'll cure coronavirus just the way he did with Zika.

    He has vowed he will never close his church ... despite every doctor and scientist saying social distancing is the only thing that will prevent the disease from spreading even more.

    The Pastor boasted his place was white-glove clean, saying, “We brought in 13 machines that basically kill every virus in the place, and uh, if somebody walks through the door it’s like, it kills everything on them. If they sneeze, it shoots it down at like 100 mph. It'll neutralize it in split seconds. We have the most sterile building in, I don’t know, all of America.”

    Howard-Browne said on March 17, "We are not stopping anything. I've got news for you, this church will never close. The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place.”
    [...]

  4. #1254
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...WqFRNvDmZAEr14
    Florida church jammed for Sunday service despite pandemic
    the sad thing is not only do these people reproduce but they travel outside the state.

  5. #1255
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Any time you feel the need to post in big bold underlined letters, I think it's a time to take a step back, breathe in deeply, and consider whether you're perhaps getting too emotional.

    Sulphur went maybe a bit over the line -- I think the manchild part at least was uncalled for -- but he's not wrong. You do come off a bit unhinged. And I get it -- it's a scary time and it's natural to be afraid and panicking. But it's also not helping anyone. Right now is not the time for jumping to conclusions or making hasty judgments.

    There are many, many variables that complicate the picture -- so hanging onto one aspect and emphasising it over and over again is not all that helpful and neither is making any definite statements about the disease just based on Italy (let alone Lombardy). There are lots and lots of things that can skew the picture in Italy compared with other countries, not the least of it is that Italy has the second oldest population in the world (in Italy, the median age of patients is 67 years, while in China it has been 46 years). And there are substantial disparities with testing and recording and reporting between individual countries. And we don't really know how things like air pollution and smoking tie into this. In fact, there are so many things we don't know about this disease yet that trying to interpret findings (especially as reported by non-scientists without the relevant expertise) based on incomplete data is extremely irresponsible.
    You're totally right but I don't think "irresponsible" is the right word. We aren't in any way any form of "authority" but a forum. And as I said TTLG members are far away from the age group that *here* is in danger.

    Talking about REAL pseudoscience (and not "limited vision 'cause there's not peer reviewed works yet"): https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hyd...nh1XrD3bsOXOBE
    Last edited by lowenz; 30th Mar 2020 at 11:10.

  6. #1256
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    And as I said TTLG members are far away from the age group that *here* is in danger.
    The age range for TTLG members is late teens to late 70s.

  7. #1257
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    You never know who repeats what where and how it impacts people's lives in the real world. And we have people of all ages here.

  8. #1258
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2008
    Location: in your second eyelids
    Since some people in their 80s died a couple years back (IIRC) then yeah, I guess it's reasonable to presume there's no 80+ people here (though you never know about the lurkers). But yeah.

    On the flipside, I've been here since mid teens and I think some have been since early teens if not earlier, so yeah, all ages indeed.

  9. #1259
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2003
    Location: Cambridgeshire UK
    Quote Originally Posted by nickie View Post
    The age range for TTLG members is late teens to late 70s.
    Correction: for late 70s read mid 80s.

  10. #1260
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    About the 15%->20% in the "video" about me

    Doing the maths the result is that if NOW the "not counted" deaths ('cause of no test done) are 2300 that 15% (deaths/positive tests in Lombardy) becomes 20%

    It's a simple equation (6360+x)/(41007+x)=0.2 being 6350/41007 the lethality here in Lombardy yesterday.
    So it's totally possible. Simple math, no need of (a complete training in) statistics (got 30 cum laude in this: http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/IMAD/ 17 years ago - with that same professor, LOL )
    Last edited by lowenz; 30th Mar 2020 at 12:29.

  11. #1261
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Today Italy data......ICU almost stable



    Severe cases still dying, ICU almost stable.

    Italian lethality (calculated on official reports): 11.4%

    Lombardy only:

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    And Lombardy



    -> 416 death, -126 since yesterday !

    ICU almost stable here too.....


    458 deaths, +42 since yesterday

    ICU stable

    Lethality in Lombardy: 16.2%
    Last edited by lowenz; 30th Mar 2020 at 12:31.

  12. #1262
    Since everyone agrees with Nancy Pelosi, here's a video of her encouraging people to gather and congregate to fight stigma.

    https://twitter.com/BarrettWilson6/s...79830872936448
    Last edited by Al_B; 30th Mar 2020 at 17:32. Reason: Yeah, don't go there

  13. #1263
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Since everyone agrees with Nancy Pelosi, here's a video of her encouraging people to gather and congregate to fight stigma.

    https://twitter.com/BarrettWilson6/s...79830872936448
    Are they implying that this is something she's doing right now?

  14. #1264
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Yeah, that was in February, over a month ago, when Lord Dampnut was still boasting what a great job he was doing on the virus, how the virus was totally under control, and that the 15 cases in the US would soon be going down close to zero.

    Also, she wasn't suggesting that people should congregate, she was saying that people should be vigilant about the threat on the horizon, but that they shouldn't keep out of Chinatown right now just because Asians live there.

  15. #1265
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Hey, let's stop with the insults, huh? Next one that comes up gets a week boot.

  16. #1266
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    OK

    Good news about chloroquine as prophylaxis drug:

    https://www.nextquotidiano.it/plaque...virus-burioni/ (please google translate)

  17. #1267
    Can I suggest that we probably don't need daily statistics from Italy too? It's not that I'm unsympathetic, but that's something anyone can get online if they really need it. Plus, it's in Italian which makes it unreadable for most folks here anyway.

  18. #1268
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    As you want, just wanted to show how the epidemic expands day by day here in Lombardy (as a show case for USA East Coast towns) vs the entire Italy.
    South Italy is demographically and urbanistically totally different and it's not a good case for western states high populated regions.

  19. #1269
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    For those who want graphs to see how their country compares to the rest of the world, Financial Times has some neat ones up, updated daily (and bigger / more readable than the sample posted):










  20. #1270
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Seems that situation in Italy is finally indeed improving.

    New case count has been falling for days now - and not for lack of trying to find new cases. There was time when every test yielded 0.33 positives (around 17. march) with ~10K tests done on that day. Now it has been:
    30th. 23329 tests -> 0.174 positive rate
    29th. 24504 tests -> 0.213 positive rate
    28th. 35447 tests -> 0.169 positive rate
    27th. 33019 tests -> 0.179 positive rate
    26th. 36615 tests -> 0.169 positive rate
    25th. 27481 tests -> 0.190 positive rate (all earlier days saw less testing)
    The decline in new cases is hence likely real (less positives found even though more testing is done than a week or so ago).
    Positive rate has been over 0.22 from 24. march back to 13. march with couple of days going over 0.3. Based on the few other counties i have testing data available - they probably have not found the resources to do testing for everyone who has the symptoms (testing probably still largely for cases that need hospitalization) but getting there.
    Active cases are still going up but much more slowly (countered by when people get declared recovered, based on whatever the local criteria is, or deaths). While the case count is still increasing - i hope that more milder cases from more testing and adaptation of the whole medical chain over time will compensate for that. Leading to less ICU needs and less deaths already. Also, as time goes on - the people most endangered are the ones to be most careful and cared for (isolated by friends and family) leading to decline of critical cases.

    Let's hope this holds and even accelerates.

  21. #1271
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    There was time when every test yielded 0.33 positives (around 17. march) with ~10K tests done on that day..
    Thanks Mr. Zaia (an his re-election strategies) for this abomination. 70.000 test kits literally wasted.

    Still now the virus is spreading in locked-down families and related physicians (mine is positive and now in quarantine with his pride).

  22. #1272
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Since everyone agrees with Nancy Pelosi...
    Since everyone agrees that Tony is a bottomless pit of hasty generalizations, inhabited by straw men, here's Tony tarring the entire forum with as wide a brush as possible.


    EDIT: Oooops! Just saw Renz's ban warning. Oh well, I could use a break.

  23. #1273
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Yeah, that was in February, over a month ago, when Lord Dampnut was still boasting what a great job he was doing on the virus, how the virus was totally under control, and that the 15 cases in the US would soon be going down close to zero.

    Also, she wasn't suggesting that people should congregate, she was saying that people should be vigilant about the threat on the horizon, but that they shouldn't keep out of Chinatown right now just because Asians live there.
    That’s not an accurate representation of what she was saying. She also claimed to have full confidence in Dr. Fauci. The message was very clearly intended to convey “The virus isn’t something to be afraid of” if you watch the full unedited clip on C-SPAN.

    It’s amazing watching the very same leaders who insisted this wasn’t a big deal (while they Quitely sold off their shares) and that the important thing is to “prevent stigma” now turning around and accusing others of the same thing they just did.

    By the way I am pretty sure I had this already in January. I live in a Chinese/Japanese expat neighborhood and there was a strange “flu” spreading through the area schools and families that came from Chinese kids returning from vacation and with symptoms that closely mirroring the JinPing Flu. It was so bad I had to call in sick days from a project where I was already working from home, was coughing so much it hurt to cough, and took about three weeks to recover when it’s rare for something to put me down for more than a day or two.

  24. #1274
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Though at the time, she was pushing for a heavier federal response to the oncoming virus, while Trump was still doing the fuck-all minimum. There is that.

  25. #1275
    Moderator
    Registered: Apr 2003
    Location: Wales
    Quote Originally Posted by ffox View Post
    Correction: for late 70s read mid 80s.
    Dammit, freddy. Surely it was only a couple of years ago that you had your 76th. Where in hell's name does time go.

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