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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1326
    So remember how most people here thought I was completely wrong to object to tech censorship and it was OK because we were REALLY only stopping people who hate?

    Turns out Google Censoring COVID has the unintended consequence of giving Trump a monopoly over COVID information

  2. #1327
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    What information could you glean from the rate of positives/tests? That's going to vary everywhere, even from one primary care physician to the next, because we don't all follow the same protocol in deciding who gets tested. For example, my doctor's office is asking us to call them first if we have any symptoms, and if we don't require medical attention, assume a positive and self-quarantine at home. The idea is to avoid risking others JUST to get a test, in cases where the result wouldn't change the recommended course of action. Depending on your risk factors, they may check in with you daily or let you ride it out unless your symptoms get worse. But we also have people skipping or ignoring their PCPs and showing up at hospital emergency rooms with mild early symptoms, demanding to be tested. Likewise, people are showing up at drive-through testing sites with no symptoms and no connections to confirmed cases, I guess hoping to get a little peace of mind, though testing negative one day doesn't mean you won't get it the next, so I don't know what testing the non-sick accomplishes for anyone.
    Simplified... Rate of positives/tests tells you how hard you are looking for positives. High = not looking. Low = being through.

    This stems from natural priority order of testing that manifests itself (example from infected groups perspective):

    A. never has any noticeable symptoms.
    Generally never checked, might get checked when had a known positive contact.

    B. gets some symptoms but not alarmed (symptoms mild / ambiguous / not risk group).
    Checked only if have the capacity. Perhaps above average paranoid doc who directs to it - or if the drive through checking is open to everyone in that particular location. However, person is much more likely to just sit it through than any of the following cases.

    C. gets symptoms and is alarmed (risk group).
    Similar to B, but much more likely to seek checking and also more likely to get checked.

    D. gets/develops pretty bad symptoms and will need hospitalization.
    Hospital, generally, needs to know if it is Covid19 or not.

    Note the inherent gradient there in chances of getting checked and probability of needing intensive care. Also note the reverse probability gradient of dilution from possible test negatives (ex: common cold very rarely prompts hospitalization [D] but can be sufficiently alarming prior to that [C, B] ... and common cold is ... common).

    I would say positives/tests is one of the most important stats - as other base stats are greatly affected by this.
    * new case count - closeness to reality greatly depends on how hard you look (duh).
    * active case count - directly depends on the previous over time with its changes in thoroughness.
    * new case count daily multiplier (observed spread ratio) - depends how the looking changed (ex: NY cumulative is way "smaller" than current daily -> initially looked thoroughly, but now cannot do so anymore).
    * bed/ICU/bodybag needs you can predict from the previous - provided you know how hard you looked.
    ... etc

    Special mention:
    * case fatality rate - is meaningless without knowing how hard you looked to find thous cases. And i wish people would stop throwing thous "stats" around as 10 times out of 10 the necessary context is not provided and what they say is just annoying gibberish. Stop it!

  3. #1328
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Florida has not issued a statewide stay-at-home order amid coronavirus crisis. Some support Gov. Ron DeSantis' approach. Others don't.

  4. #1329
    So with all these jobless claims...don’t you think we should be trying to find new jobs and retraining?

    Nope. Trump’s priority is to import 85,000 H1B gig workers and screw those Americans who need a job. The tech moguls might have to buy one less private jet if we hired Americans at a living wage.

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