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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1326
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    What information could you glean from the rate of positives/tests? That's going to vary everywhere, even from one primary care physician to the next, because we don't all follow the same protocol in deciding who gets tested. For example, my doctor's office is asking us to call them first if we have any symptoms, and if we don't require medical attention, assume a positive and self-quarantine at home. The idea is to avoid risking others JUST to get a test, in cases where the result wouldn't change the recommended course of action. Depending on your risk factors, they may check in with you daily or let you ride it out unless your symptoms get worse. But we also have people skipping or ignoring their PCPs and showing up at hospital emergency rooms with mild early symptoms, demanding to be tested. Likewise, people are showing up at drive-through testing sites with no symptoms and no connections to confirmed cases, I guess hoping to get a little peace of mind, though testing negative one day doesn't mean you won't get it the next, so I don't know what testing the non-sick accomplishes for anyone.
    Simplified... Rate of positives/tests tells you how hard you are looking for positives. High = not looking. Low = being through.

    This stems from natural priority order of testing that manifests itself (example from infected groups perspective):

    A. never has any noticeable symptoms.
    Generally never checked, might get checked when had a known positive contact.

    B. gets some symptoms but not alarmed (symptoms mild / ambiguous / not risk group).
    Checked only if have the capacity. Perhaps above average paranoid doc who directs to it - or if the drive through checking is open to everyone in that particular location. However, person is much more likely to just sit it through than any of the following cases.

    C. gets symptoms and is alarmed (risk group).
    Similar to B, but much more likely to seek checking and also more likely to get checked.

    D. gets/develops pretty bad symptoms and will need hospitalization.
    Hospital, generally, needs to know if it is Covid19 or not.

    Note the inherent gradient there in chances of getting checked and probability of needing intensive care. Also note the reverse probability gradient of dilution from possible test negatives (ex: common cold very rarely prompts hospitalization [D] but can be sufficiently alarming prior to that [C, B] ... and common cold is ... common).

    I would say positives/tests is one of the most important stats - as other base stats are greatly affected by this.
    * new case count - closeness to reality greatly depends on how hard you look (duh).
    * active case count - directly depends on the previous over time with its changes in thoroughness.
    * new case count daily multiplier (observed spread ratio) - depends how the looking changed (ex: NY cumulative is way "smaller" than current daily -> initially looked thoroughly, but now cannot do so anymore).
    * bed/ICU/bodybag needs you can predict from the previous - provided you know how hard you looked.
    ... etc

    Special mention:
    * case fatality rate - is meaningless without knowing how hard you looked to find thous cases. And i wish people would stop throwing thous "stats" around as 10 times out of 10 the necessary context is not provided and what they say is just annoying gibberish. Stop it!

  2. #1327
    Member
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-n...022627699.html
    Florida has not issued a statewide stay-at-home order amid coronavirus crisis. Some support Gov. Ron DeSantis' approach. Others don't.

  3. #1328
    So with all these jobless claims...don’t you think we should be trying to find new jobs and retraining?

    Nope. Trump’s priority is to import 85,000 H1B gig workers and screw those Americans who need a job. The tech moguls might have to buy one less private jet if we hired Americans at a living wage.


    https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/...371560451?s=20

  4. #1329
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night

  5. #1330
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, US Intelligence Says

    China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

    The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.

    (...)

    While China eventually imposed a strict lockdown beyond those of less autocratic nations, there has been considerable skepticism of China’s reported numbers, both outside and within the country. The Chinese government has repeatedly revised its methodology for counting cases, for weeks excluding people without symptoms entirely, and only on Tuesday added more than 1,500 asymptomatic cases to its total.

    Stacks of thousands of urns outside funeral homes in Hubei province have driven public doubt in Beijing’s reporting.
    Not a whole lot to go on here, but it's something.

  6. #1331
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I'm SO sorry that you got not only the CoVid-19 but the Trump-16 too.
    The latter is a brain killer.

  7. #1332
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    +328 deaths in Lombardy

    LESS ICU than yesterday in Lombardy (1330->1324)
    Hospitalized stable (+68 over 12.000)
    @Home almost stable
    More positives -> +650
    More deaths today -> +394
    @Home patients number growing (they are the relatives of the old infected people and now they got the symptoms too)

    Russian Army trucks running around for sanification.

  8. #1333
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    * case fatality rate - is meaningless without knowing how hard you looked to find thous cases. And i wish people would stop throwing thous "stats" around as 10 times out of 10 the necessary context is not provided and what they say is just annoying gibberish. Stop it!
    So ask for the context.
    The reality is that elder people are dying without even being tested here. And not being tested after the death too.
    It's why the numbers are totally wrong and the actual 17% death rate (here in my region is 17% today) is more like 20% and over.

  9. #1334
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    I'm SO sorry that you got not only the CoVid-19 but the Trump-16 too.
    The latter is a brain killer.
    Your not a member of the communist party are you? Been noticing a fair few pro China comments.

    Anyways. China has very much been negligent in this whole thing. They've under reported numbers of infected and deaths, and made attempts (via aggressive language) to pressure countries not to put travel bans in place. This led to the virus escaping the country on the scale that it has, and is directly responsible for the deaths caused.

    If a company through negligence causes deaths of it's workers then it is liable for compensation, so should China through their negligence in containing the virus and causing the next great depression.

  10. #1335
    Ann Coulter putting Trump on blast.

    It's the rare case she's accurate. Very few people realize how dire our supply chain problems and dependency on China are.

    Ann Coulter: The Bill For Globalism Has Arrived. Tell China To Pay It!

    When the after-action report on the current pandemic is being prepared, I’m going to ask the guy with the notepad to write down: “China” and “globalists.”

    Those words won’t be on Trump’s list. He can’t stop gushing about how much he respects China and the American companies that have outsourced jobs there. Even as China withholds vital medical supplies, he refuses to end our suicidal dependence on them.

    His one slight annoyance with China is that it lied about the Wuhan virus, allowing the disease to explode across the globe.

    I have a longer list of complaints, beginning with the fact that they eat bats. The resulting pandemic now raging through our country would be bad enough, but our new crisis is a shortage of medical equipment.

    Too bad we shipped all our manufacturing to China! Not to worry, surely China wouldn’t disrupt the sacred “global supply chain.”

    Oops. China is stockpiling masks and ventilators.


    And there’s more good news! China makes more than 90% of our antibiotics, vitamin C, ibuprofen and hydrocortisone, 70% of acetaminophen, and 40% to 45% of heparin, according to The New York Times. The last American penicillin plant closed more than 15 years ago.

    In early March, the Chinese government ominously warned that if China stopped exporting drugs, “the United States would sink into the hell of a novel coronavirus epidemic.”

    For decades, people like Trump’s trade director Peter Navarro have warned us that something like this would happen someday. But we were condescendingly told, This is capital seeking the most efficient market! And, anyway, if China screws with us, we’ll just make it ourselves.

    Really? With broken-down buildings, a dispossessed workforce and no machinery? Unfashionable working-class people in the industrial Midwest were discarded long ago. They may as well have had “obsolete” stamped on their foreheads.

    But I notice that you, Wall Street, made a lot of money off of globalization.

    Oh, did I? I didn’t notice!

    What happened to your vaunted concern for China’s human rights violations—the Uyghurs, the Falun Gong, Tibet, child labor?

    You should see my place in the Hamptons!

    Even before China gave us this latest viral disease—not to be confused with H1N1, Asian flu, SARS and bird flu, also from China—one of the most frequent questions about Amazon products was: “Is this made in China?”

    Obviously, a lot of consumers would happily pay more to know that something is made in the USA—or at least not in China. We’d like to support our fellow Americans. We also prefer products that don’t kill the family pet, instantly fall apart or risk being embargoed during a viral pandemic.

    How about that search refinement, Amazon? “Made in USA—including constituent parts” or "0% Chinese." I’d wager these would be more popular than the hundreds of other search parameters, such as star ratings, price, manufacturer, “prime,” calories, gluten-free and so on.

    Not a chance. The globalists are making a lot of money selling us crappy products, manufactured in a culturally backward, totalitarian regime with zero quality control and absolutely no interest in the well-being of our country.

    Why hasn’t Trump seized on this nightmare of the New World Order to fulfill a campaign promise and bring manufacturing home?

    Where are the massive tariffs on Chinese goods and the “Buy American” programs?

    How about telling Ivanka, No, you are not going to make it even more expensive for companies to hire Americans with this ridiculous Paid Family Medical Leave Act! In fact, we’re going to seek the repeal of all laws that create jobs only for trial lawyers.

    Even a lot of the American companies we’re so proud of for stepping up to make masks in this crisis ... are making them in China. (New York Times, March 13, 2020: “A General Motors joint venture in southwestern China built 20 of its own mask-making machines and began bulk production.”)

    Trump’s reaction? Flatter China so they’ll keep buying our soybeans. Maybe they’ll throw Jared some business!

    Nearly a month ago, The New York Times reported that Trump was “preparing an executive order, which could be released in the coming days,” requiring the federal government to buy American-made pharmaceuticals.

    It apparently went into the same file as that executive order on anchor babies. We’re still waiting.

    Navarro had the executive order ready to go, but then dozens of pharmaceutical companies lobbied against it, arguing that “a diverse pharmaceutical supply chain is precisely what enables the industry to respond quickly and make adjustments in its supply chain sourcing during natural emergencies and global public health crises.”

    China: If we cut you off, America, you’ll be in hell.

    The Big Pharma lobbyists also noted that Trump’s (idle) threat for America to make its own drugs “could run afoul of commitments it made under the WTO’s Government Procurement Agreement.”

    NO! WE CAN’T VIOLATE THE WTO’S GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT AGREEMENT!

    Trump is the president of the United States. Either he is responsible for a monstrous virus arriving on our shores and destroying our economy—or China is. I expected the media to say, “Trump!”

    I didn’t expect Trump to agree.

  11. #1336
    As mentioned earlier,

    I'm fairly sure I had this virus in mid January. I had to give someone a lift to the hospital in Teaneck NJ, and while waiting there were a couple of people coughing. A week later I came down with an extremely nasty bug where I spent several days almost constantly asleep. When I was awake I was experiencing an extremely deep dry cough that eventually led to it hurting to cough more, a low grade fever, constant hot/cold flashes, and headaches. It took me a week to be able to do anything and almost a month before I could actually exercise again.

    Last month I mentioned that to my chiropractor in my neighborhood (majority Asian expats) and he said that there had been a disease with the same symptoms going through the area that came back with kids returning from China/Japan on Christmas break. Interestingly nobody who had this mystery disease tested positive for influenza.

    If that was the case (and odds are good given the timing, perfect overlap of symptoms, ruling out influenza, and it coming from China during a time period we now know the outbreak was going on) the disease is something that is extremely nasty and far from just being some sniffles you get over. I also benefit from being someone who has good lungs (though nowhere near as good as my Army days) with a crazy-ass immune system to where I will get over in an afternoon what takes my peers several days to recover from; and managed to spend the last year traveling through airports all over the country without ever catching a cold. That said what I had definitely wasn't the apocalypse and I wouldn't see it being a life or death problem for most people who aren't immunocompromised in some way. What probably also helped is that I accidentally did a lot of things right: I don't use painkillers if at all possible so I avoided the Ibuprofen trap (which can make it worse according to journals), I used a larger dose of Vitamin C (which Chinese doctors are now saying helps alleviate symptoms and prevent sepsis), and my wife insisted I take doses of Elderberry (Which inhibits viral attachment)
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 1st Apr 2020 at 22:26.

  12. #1337
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Tony: On the masks and ventilators mention.

    I'm not sure of what's been going on elsewhere in the world, but large groups of Chinese Australian citizen's (dual national), have been buying all the supplies in supermarkets (eg toilet paper, tissues, hand sanitizer etc) in large groups, and then sending that back to China.

    I would share a video I saw on Facebook regarding this, where a camera crew busted one of the illegal factories housing the goods, but I can't find a copy of it on Youtube.

  13. #1338
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    my chiropractor
    Why am I not surprised.

    far from just being some sniffles you get over.
    You don't say!

    I also benefit from being someone who has good lungs
    What scale are you using?

    with a crazy-ass immune system
    Oh boy.

    I avoided the Ibuprofen trap (which can make it worse according to journals)
    mmmhmmmm

    I used a larger dose of Vitamin C (which Chinese doctors are now saying helps alleviate symptoms and prevent sepsis)
    You know what Chinese medicine with real evidence behind it is called, right? I'll tell you. It's medicine.

    wife insisted I take doses of Elderberry (Which inhibits viral attachment)
    Welp. Let's wrap it up boys. Vitamin C and Elderberry. That's it. This man has saved humanity.

  14. #1339
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    ...sigh.

    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    Welp. Let's wrap it up boys. Vitamin C and Elderberry. That's it. This man has saved humanity.
    My favorite juice has both of those things in it!

  15. #1340
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Your not a member of the communist party are you?
    Are you serious?

  16. #1341
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Four days ago, I posted this question:
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Italy - 92k infected, 10k deaths.
    Spain - 79k infected, 6.5k deaths.
    USA - 125k infected, 1k deaths.

    Who do you think will hit 20k deaths first ? I think all three countries have equal chance to be the winner.
    Interim score:

    Italy - 111k infected, 13155 deaths.
    Spain - 104k infected, 9387 deaths.
    USA - 215k infected, 5068 deaths.

  17. #1342
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Are you serious?
    Just kidding.

  18. #1343
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    Things are getting crazy. An engineer in the port of LA ran his train off the end of tracks at full speed in an attempt to hit a hospital ship.

    https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/l...s-say/2339287/

    Also, our Dr. Fauci is getting a security detail now because of death threats.

  19. #1344
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Things are getting crazy. An engineer in the port of LA ran his train off the end of tracks at full speed in an attempt to hit a hospital ship.

    https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/l...s-say/2339287/

    Also, our Dr. Fauci is getting a security detail now because of death threats.
    Average Facebook Users.

  20. #1345
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    More positives -> +650
    More deaths today -> +394
    @Home patients number growing (they are the relatives of the old infected people and now they got the symptoms too)

    Russian Army trucks running around for sanification.
    Lombardy

    More positives: +111
    ICU stable: +9
    Deaths today: 367 -> -27 since yesterday
    @Hospital patients -> -165 since yesterday
    @Home patients number still growing (+267)

    Death count still high, fitting the typical interstial pneumonia prognosis (50% exitus)

  21. #1346
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Roughly 5,000 cases in Australia currently. 23 deaths. Nearly all of them were people returning from overseas, or on infected cruise ships. Speaking of infected cruise ships, there are several in New South Wales with thousands onboard (none of which are Australians, and all are crew members) and are refusing to leave, despite knowing that if they were all allowed entry (which none are for the next 6 months as of last week) that they would completely overwhelm the NSW health system, likely cause even further infections and lead to far higher deaths.

    There is quite a bit of hostility towards cruise ships in NSW currently, as that states count is around 2,000+ confirmed cases, and nearly all of them are directly related to a cruise ship that docked 2 weeks ago (in Sydney) full of infected passengers and none of them were checked for infection before getting off. All of those people went out into the community and infections skyrocketed. An absolute disaster + MAJOR fuck up by that states government.

    In comparison, my state of Victoria is around 900 cases. 30 in my suburb. If you happen to be a Victorian resident, this site has daily stats per region:
    https://infogram.com/1pwemj1x57yd1lh...jlUW8LLKJn5qFc

  22. #1347
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Things are getting crazy. An engineer in the port of LA ran his train off the end of tracks at full speed in an attempt to hit a hospital ship.

    https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/l...s-say/2339287/

    Also, our Dr. Fauci is getting a security detail now because of death threats.
    Firstly, what the actual fuck.

    Secondly, welcome to the post-truth world, I guess.

  23. #1348
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Poor guy. He's either unwell or not bright at all.

    Stressful, crazy times sometimes brings out odd behaviour that's bubbling under, obviously. We can expect a few more weird things to happen and just hope that no one gets hurt.

    In other news - I'm finally getting around to watching the last episode of West World S2, so S3 is on the cards.

    What are people watching in the Covid-19 era?


    PS. I hope everyone is staying nice and isolated and safe.

  24. #1349
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I'm watching old seasons of X-Files right now. Also watched Kingdom, the Korean politi-zombie-drama, and some other random stuff.

    I never thought I'd say this, but I'm actually starting to get tired of sitting around watching stuff all day. It's all well and good when you veg out after a hard days work, but when it's ALL you have to do...

  25. #1350
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    I'm watching old seasons of X-Files right now.

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