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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1501
    Data Graphic:


  2. #1502
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post

    So some random site on the internet that isn't even a big name in the media used this picture from an older story concerning another tragedy, either by accident, or to bolster its clickbait status by providing a face with the name, and you subtly suggest the implications of a conspiracy by oh so so subtly providing these two stories side by side to allow us to "figure it out for ourselves."

    It doesn't occur to you to maybe consider it's just that one site. You don't bother to do any deeper digging. You probably read about this on some rando conspiracy site, saw it provided an excellent chance to EXPOSE THE LIE to us poor sheepy plebes here, and you ran with it.
    You're massively projecting, and again it's bizarre windmill tilting.

    Notably absent from your response is any actual rebuttal of the main point: they re-used a photo of another boy from two years ago for their story. The other sites were a little more responsible and didn't use an obviously fake picture for their story.

    And "that one site" is MSN, it's a major media outlet that also owns a cable news network.

    Your rebuttal is only a "genius smackdown" if you project far more onto it than what is actually there (me mocking them using a fake picture).


    Quote Originally Posted by Sulphur View Post
    That's quite the strawman you're arguing. You know why? Because actually, no one gives a hot shit what you think. Be left, right, middle, up and down or round and round, you're still irrelevant to anyone sane.

    Let me guess, you're far more capable and smarter but you're just being held back by oppressive capitalist/white supremacist system that fails to recognize your talents?

    On everything else: Iowenz is being extremely dramatic, but he's also the only one linking to actual science. If you can tolerate the tone it's a far valuable contribution to the topic than yet more hysteria about Trump about which I could get literally the exact same points (verbatim sometimes) 24/7 by turning on a random cable news channel.


    ---------

    So...

    Rare admission given my massive ego (a necessary evil to survive when you're at a competitive up or out consulting firm)....

    But.

    I think I massively fucked up and over-estimated at first how deadly the virus was. The reason why was that I had assumed initially that the Chinese were massively lying about the actual data on how contagious and deadly the actual virus is and that they were higher than we knew so far. That my actually be true but if it is true that may be due to other factors such as extremely poor air quality, notoriously bad hygiene levels (e.g. wet markets), and the use of ineffective folk medicine treatments.


    The IMHE model (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) is continually being revised downwards and actual numbers of deaths are failing to meet it. Given how poor the actual social distancing is in many parts of the US the "Occam's Razor" explanation is that the virus isn't either as deadly or as contagious as initially believed. The current model by August calls for 60,000 deaths which is roughly a 99.9% reduction compared to the initial forecast of 5 million deaths.
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 8th Apr 2020 at 15:36.

  3. #1503
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Abuse of pop psychology will no longer be tolerated in this community. The next person who tells me I'm suffering from post-purchase rationalization will receive a prompt bullet to the back of the head.

    You have been warned.

  4. #1504
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    No one's doubting what you're saying here.
    I am, actually.

    It's like this. lowenz posts some info, but without really understanding the background or context, and in some cases the meaning. For example, saying that the virus doesn't kill you but x, y and z do, and then reiterating it like it's some important revelation and this virus is really special because of it.

    No virus kills you in that case. I asked for one example, of course I've never been given one. You die because of some complex effect of the virus. HIV destroys your immune system. You never die OF HIV, but of the complications of HIV. Ebola doesn't kill you, the bleeding and the encephalopathy does. Every virus has a mechanism but if you really boil it down it's always one of the three basic causes of death - cessation of function of the cardiovascular, respiratory or central nervous systems.

    lowenz is like me trying to talk about football. I know what it is. I watch it occasionally when the Euros or the World Cup. But I don't know who plays for who, what the different league and knockout competitions are, what division any team is in, who plays for which team now or last season. And I don't pretend to.

  5. #1505

  6. #1506
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Don't be smug, Lowenz. I'm getting really tired of unnecessary and entirely unearned smugness at the moment, and I have nothing better to do with my time than my job here.

    We know coronavirus can lead to various disparate symptoms beyond the usual cases. It's an infection that puts a massive strain on the body, and the fallout from it isn't confined solely to the lungs. We know. We're aware. You don't need to continually remind of this again and again and again.

  7. #1507
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    and this virus is really special because of it.
    Never said that.
    What I say it's valid for every virus, there's nothing "special" about this one.

    The problem here it's the "social scenic bias" of the patients in ICU that focuses the attention of us (?) all to the respiratory failure (because of course there is that failure in many many cases).
    THAT is the "misinformation" - misinterpretation - at diagnostic level.
    Everyone thinks about the pneumonia but not about some peculiar aspects of it that can show the real systemic extension of this syndrome.

    And I don't mean the good physicians (I hope), I mean "people" searching for infos on the web about "Covid-19".
    Do NOT oversimply the syndrome only because the majority of the people die cause of the respiratory failure. There's all the (non)expression in the so-called asymptomatic (=subclinical expression) patients too that must NOT be oversimplified only because an infected feels good (no fever, no cough, no lethargy 'cause there's no hard involvement of the lungs)

    Welcome back

  8. #1508
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    That's a classic example. It's terrible journalism - the headline says heart attacks and then they talk about calls for cardiac arrests. These aren't the same things. A heart attack can cause cardiac arrest, but get your terminology right. The article is fluffy enough that it doesn't conflate the two, but it's anything but clear.

    The article then goes on to say "fatal or near-fatal heart attacks suffered by New Yorkers whose true health issue may be COVID-19."

    Additionally, one of the causes of cardiac arrest is hypoxia. I'll leave it you to work out which organ might be implicated there.

    Finally - this isn't research, there are no conclusive facts.

    And someone is smug about this? Oh lawd

    Edit: I only looked at your post to see what Renz was replying to. I'll not bother again as you just prove yourself over and over.

    Take care. Addio.

  9. #1509
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    Do NOT oversimply the syndrome only because the majority of the people die cause of the respiratory failure.
    No one is oversimplifying this. The problem is that you're overly concerned that they might be.

  10. #1510
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Long time ago, I used to work with some people who were considered "world experts". Really, the top people in the world in the field I was working in at the time. One funny thing I now realize is: when I talked to them, they asked me as many questions as I asked them.

    My point is not "look at me, how smart I was". My point is: the real experts are posing questions all the time. Even when they are the expert, they still doubt every detail they know. They constantly want to learn from others. They constantly want to check with others if what they're saying or thinking, is actually true. When they explained something to me, they constantly told me the circumstances, the variables, the assumptions they are making when explaining/creating/learning a theory. Always asking, always wanting to learn, always verifying.

    I don't think I've seen anyone here on ttlg ever ask a question ....

  11. #1511
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    And to cheer everybody up a bit, here is a video about a bear trying to make the world a better place.

  12. #1512
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I don't think I've seen anyone here on ttlg ever ask a question ....
    Probably because most people in this thread aren't claiming to be experts on anything. We mostly relay information from sources we trust, and discuss things from there.

  13. #1513
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    My point was: asking questions, having doubts, wondering about things, understanding that your knowledge or opinion is limited, are all part of normal discussion. Only "relaying information" and making statements is not a real discussion, imho.

    It's just an observation. Of course I've visited other fora before. E.g. I sometimes check a few Reddit forums (I don't have a Reddit account, to make sure I won't waste time posting there). And tbh, most posters on those fora act the same as the ttlg-posters here on CommChat. Or a lot worse even. Especially since Trump got elected. (Trump's election seems to have brought a lot of vermin out of the woodwork on some forums. (I'm not talking about ttlg here. Life is a lot better here)). Anyway, life here is still 100% better than when WhatsHisName was around.
    Last edited by Gryzemuis; 8th Apr 2020 at 19:21.

  14. #1514
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    We've no idea what is going to happen. Really. I don't trust the figures coming out of China and the rates of mortality, in different sub-groups especially, is so variable as to be practically unpredictable.

    I don't think we can ask questions because right now it's just information gathering and there is little concrete information.

    You could have predicted that St Thomas' Hospital (where Boris is) would be important in treating Covid. I wouldn't have predicted that all elective surgery and all research would be halted though. Or that the Excel would be turned into a massive Covid hospital. Or that so many idiots would break the isolation rules.

    Okay, that last one was probably a safe bet.

  15. #1515
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    One thing we're doing here in NL. We have a new tv-program called "messages from the frontlines".

    It is broadcasted every night around 22:00 or so. It lasts only 15 minutes. During these 15 minutes, we are shown short messages from people working in the health sector. Doctors and nurses about their daily work. Lung-specialists explain how ventilators work. Anesthetists explaining how they control people on ventilators. GPs talking about the shortages of PPE. People in nursing homes talking about how hard their work has become, and how hard life in those homes have become (less time per client, stuff can't be done because of the 6 feet distance, no more outside visitors, etc). The guy in charge of an ICU talking about how he's trying to keep the ICU working. Etc, etc.

    All these messages are recorded by the doctors and nurses and others themselves, on their own phones. Some of them talk about how tired they are. Or how it is emotionally draining them.

    I think it's a very useful tv-show. It shows directly the impact the corona-crisis has. Not only on the patients. But also on the healthcare system. And on the people working in hospitals, homes, GPs, etc. It's easy to only watch the talking heads on tv talk about numbers and scenarios. But seeing doctors and nurses fully dressed up, in hospitals that are full with beds and full with patients, that makes a real impact. I hope it helps the general public realize how serious this is.

    Do other countries do the same ?
    Or is the corona-crisis shown as an abstract thing, like most other crises ? (War in the middle-east, virus in china, hunger in africa, who cares these days ?).

  16. #1516
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Do other countries do the same ?
    Over here, we get to watch our president talk about how awesome he is for upwards of two hours. Sometimes, other people speak.

  17. #1517
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    You're massively projecting, and again it's bizarre windmill tilting.

    Notably absent from your response is any actual rebuttal of the main point: they re-used a photo of another boy from two years ago for their story. The other sites were a little more responsible and didn't use an obviously fake picture for their story.

    And "that one site" is MSN, it's a major media outlet that also owns a cable news network.

    Your rebuttal is only a "genius smackdown" if you project far more onto it than what is actually there (me mocking them using a fake picture).
    Microsoft (who operates msn.com and which you might get a hint of from "powered by Microsoft News" under the logo) is a major media outlet that owns a cable news outlet? Since when? They are little more than a news aggregator website who use other people's content, in that case some obscure site called IOL News from South Africa that stole the story from a real journalist and for whatever reason used a wrong photo. Wait, are you confusing them with NBC and MSNBC?

    Seriously, you've been told time and time again, you don't have the capacity to evaluate sources or interpret them correctly. How many more demonstrations does it take? How many more times do you have to rake yourself in the face and pretend that nothing happened?

    And this time it was really, really easy too. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what kind of a website msn.com is or who wrote the article or who supplied it to msn.com. The information was already there in the article and just a short Wikipedia visit / Google search away.
    Last edited by Starker; 8th Apr 2020 at 21:44.

  18. #1518
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    He's thinking of MSNBC, which MSN isn't a part of. It's, well, what you said. A news aggregator, pulling stories from various sources.

    Hell, Microsoft isn't even involved with MSNBC much anymore from what I've read. So yeah, they're entirely separate things.

  19. #1519
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    It occurred to me today. With current isolation stuff going on, companies specializing in virtual tourism could make an absolute killing at the moment:



    Everyone's stuck at home, and dreaming of the life outside. Recall, recall recall.

  20. #1520
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    See you at tha pahtay, Richtah!

  21. #1521
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Okay, now I gotta watch Total Recall.

    This is about the 3rd time you've done this to me, Ice.

  22. #1522
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Lol. Hilarious.

  23. #1523
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Remember that French study that claimed a 100% cure rate with hydroxychloroquine? Well, about that...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ronavirus-drug

    [...]
    But even more important than these shortcomings in the design of the study is how the researchers chose to measure and report their results. Forty-two patients were initially included in the study. Three were transferred to the intensive care unit; one died, one left the hospital, and one stopped taking the treatment due to nausea. The other 36 eventually recovered, and those who received the drug cleared the virus from the system faster than those who did not.

    If you had only heard about this study from the Fox News assertion of a “100% cure rate”, you might assume that the four patients with poor clinical outcomes (the three ICU visits and one death) had been unlucky enough to be in the group that did not receive the “cure”.

    And yet, those four patients, as well as the patient with nausea and the one who left the hospital early, were all part of the treatment group. They were excluded from the topline results of the study because of the way that the researchers chose to measure and report the results: strictly based on the measurable presence of viruses in nasal swabs taken each day of the study. Since the patients were in the ICU or dead, their samples could not be taken and they were left out of the final analysis. Based on the nasal swabs of just the 36 patients who completed the study, those who received the drug cleared the virus from their systems faster than those who did not.

    This is how an experiment in which 15% of the treatment group and 0% of the control had poor clinical outcomes could end up being reported as showing a “100% cure rate”.
    [...]

  24. #1524
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    Remember that French study that claimed a 100% cure rate with hydroxychloroquine? Well, about that...
    Exactly. And remember that the throat/nasal mucosa "clearness" can't exclude the virus replication elsewhere or a "return" some days later in those same tissues.

    The chroloquine experiments here in Italy were done in vitro and only showed the *potential* use as a prophylasis drug for medics and nurses (and they know the adverse effects).

  25. #1525
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    Do other countries do the same ?
    Or is the corona-crisis shown as an abstract thing, like most other crises ? (War in the middle-east, virus in china, hunger in Africa, who cares these days ?).
    We have some information on TV of a similar type, but it's not every night and is only occasional updates. I think what's happen there a really, really good idea.

    Can you link me to the official website please? I need to share this with one of the doctor's associations here.

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