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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1701
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Second, WTF is up with Operation Gridlock in Michigan? This is from Wednesday, but it's still bugging me how clueless and callous people can be:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...n_lansing.html

    On a related note, I have to visit two work sites in Massachusetts a couple times a week, and every time I drive into Mass there's more traffic and more people going to work. It's kind of a disturbing sign because Mass is approaching peak spreading. Anyone else going back to work?
    Obviously, the best time to get rid of your parachute is right after it has slowed your descent.


  2. #1702
    SShock2.com
    Member

    Registered: Apr 2001
    Location: The land of ever sideways rain
    Quote Originally Posted by SubJeff View Post
    If you both live alone... move in together?
    Well, no.

    Her son is twelve. And she has OCD issues. And oh, there's a lockdown.


    If it was my choice, which it isn't, we'd clearly live happily ever after. As it stands now, we can meet up once a day for a walk. Not ideal, but hey, on the upside, neither of us is dead yet.

  3. #1703
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    so I got a feeling
    there are some very strong, powerful signs feeling?

  4. #1704
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    I'm not trying to be a dick, but I've just read the last two pages and the science up in here is pretty terrible. It would take me too much time to go through it all and explain why every bit is flawed, and it's time I don't have. I suggest people go read up on immunology because that's the worst part of it. I suggest this book if you're really interested. . If you want to listen to a podcast that's talking about this issue I suggest Science Vs from Gimlet.

    Have fun.

  5. #1705
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    On other, quite old, news ... our unfortunate island case i mentioned before. I later found out that the mass testing planned there is indeed for antibodies (found that some time later - so, not much point to edit that in). While it will be opt-in - i expect nearly everyone who can will do so (if i were living on an island where more than 1.3% are confirmed cases - i would be very motivated to check it out). Now, that would be some interesting data to have ...
    Whether or not it's any good for getting people back to work depends on the specificity of the test. The false positive rate has to be significantly less than the actual percentage of the population who have antibodies, otherwise positive results give people a false sense of security.

    Let's say the tests improve and achieve a specificity of 99%. Sounds pretty good, but if the true number of people with antibodies in the population is 1%, then there's likely to be as many false positives as true positives, and half the people you're green lighting to go back to work don't actually have antibodies. If the true percentage is 2%, then 1/3 of the people you're clearing for work don't have antibodies. And so on.

  6. #1706

  7. #1707
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/h...hnk/index.html

    163 cases of re-infection or more simply of some stupid criteria like "symptoms remission/no virus in the throat mucosa=real recover" ?

  8. #1708
    Iowenz why are you trying to push Trump's bullshit?

    You pushing Chloroquine treatments is only going to hurt people and I encourage you to think about what you're doing. It's bad and you should feel bad.

    Obviously, the best time to get rid of your parachute is right after it has slowed your descent.
    Of course and unlike Trump voters you actually have a functioning brain to understand that.

    Teabaggers and Trumptards keep pointing to Sweden. Suddenly socialism is wonderful.

    To the non brain-dead it's obvious: Sweden doesn't need to flatten the curve as much because they actually care about people, and have enough beds and ventilators to handle a crisis. That's not the case in the US where we only care about the profits for Republican donors.

  9. #1709
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Whether or not it's any good for getting people back to work depends on the specificity of the test. The false positive rate has to be significantly less than the actual percentage of the population who have antibodies, otherwise positive results give people a false sense of security.

    Let's say the tests improve and achieve a specificity of 99%. Sounds pretty good, but if the true number of people with antibodies in the population is 1%, then there's likely to be as many false positives as true positives, and half the people you're green lighting to go back to work don't actually have antibodies. If the true percentage is 2%, then 1/3 of the people you're clearing for work don't have antibodies. And so on.
    Your math is broken, but that is besides the point ...

    Now, that would be some interesting data to have ... to ascertain the spread characteristics of the virus. It is hard to plan any future actions without having that data. Sending thous, presumably, few who have had it is a drop in the ocean - that is not a reliable plan to begin with (unless there are a lot more of thous than expected). Not having infectious people run around by mistake is impossible to avoid - no plan can rely on even pretending to be doing the impossible. Since it has become a pandemic - there is no getting rid of the virus. Any plan for the future must find a way to just live with it - ie. keep it under control. Understanding its spread characteristics etc in any region of concern is vital for that. There currently are still too many unknowns about it.

    edit: what is the expected specificity for antibody testing? I would expect false negatives to greatly overshadow false positives ... but, heywood has made me wonder if that is actually true :/
    Last edited by zombe; 18th Apr 2020 at 14:04.

  10. #1710
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Typically we test a LOT more people that don't have something than people who do, so false positive *raw numbers* can be much higher than false negative *raw numbers* if they have the same rate. To combat that effect, assays are usually designed to have very low or even negligible false positive rates, even at the cost of increasing the false negative rate. But corona viruses in general are dirt common, so my understanding is that it's been challenging to design really good (or even adequate) tests.

  11. #1711
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    Iowenz why are you trying to push Trump's bullshit?

    You pushing Chloroquine treatments is only going to hurt people and I encourage you to think about what you're doing. It's bad and you should feel bad.
    I push what?

  12. #1712
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    zombe, where did I go wrong in my math?

    I've been looking for information on the specificity of these tests, but it's hard to find anything concrete at this point. There's at least 100 different companies rushing them onto the market. I've looked at a few of their websites, like Premier Biotech who supplied the tests for the Stanford study, and most don't say anything. The first antibody test to be authorized by our FDA is made by Cellex, who claim 96.4% according to this article:
    <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/antibody-tests-may-hold-clues-covid-19-exposure-immunity-its-complicated">https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/antibody-tests-may-hold-clues-covid-19-exposure-immunity-its-complicated</a>

    At the low end, here's one at 91%:
    https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/...iagnostic-test

    But there are Chinese-made tests claiming 100%. Perhaps the 100% is true, but out of a sample size of what? If you look at a summary of various tests here, can see that some of the numbers are based on sample sizes of just 30 individuals:
    https://www.centerforhealthsecurity....-COVID-19.html

    Here in the US, antibody tests and hydroxychloroquine are being pushed by the right. The great right hope was that antibody tests will reveal that a large percentage of the population has already been exposed and developed antibodies - meaning we've already achieved some degree of herd immunity. This idea circled around conservative media about 10 days ago after a military historian wrote about the Stanford study (then in progress) in a San Francisco newspaper. The article was taken down otherwise I'd link it. And now that the study results are out, they're not talking about it.

    The other great hope for antibody tests is that they will clear people to go back to work. Maybe there is some promise there, but if the false positive rate is on the same order of magnitude as the true positive rate among the population, it's not going to be of any help.

    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    I push what?
    Tony is being disingenuous. Ignore.

  13. #1713
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    English is hard man.

    I have been trying to understand the meanings of "specificity" (how good at avoiding false positives) and "sensitivity" (how good at finding the antibody) for a hour now ... using some real numbers from some developed tests ... and i have got nowhere. I just cannot find a way to apply them and have the numbers line up. I give up. Guess it is prudent to ignore my comments about math - but that was besides the point anyway.

    That said, if anyone can figure out an example math to show what the actual F' 0.956 specificity and 0.938 sensitivity means - i would appreciate it.

  14. #1714
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    zombe, where did I go wrong in my math?
    At this point, you ninja poster, i assume you did not ... as i cannot wrap my head around the exact mathematical meaning of the words as notes in my previous post. The only thing i can say for sure is that your math is definitely correct if error chance is the same in both ways. I assumed that to be very unlikely - but now i do not know nor can figure out whether it matters as noted in previous post.

  15. #1715
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2004
    I think it's like this (all made up numbers).

    Imagine you have a population of 1,000 people you tested. Of those, 100 were actually sick, and 900 were actually healthy.

    Of those 100 sick people, 90 test positive correctly, and 10 incorrectly test negatively.

    Of the 900 healthy people tested, 870 are reported negatively, while 30 get false positive.

    Sensitivity = number of times the test correctly reported sick people sick / total number of actually sick people. For us, it would be 90 / 100, or .9

    Specificity = number of times the test correctly reported healthy people healthy / total number of healthy people. For us, 870 / 900, or .966


    I'm getting the idea the important bits are going to be 1- Specificity and 1 - Sensitivity, which should be the percentage of the tests being incorrect. So, .956 specificity means a 4.4% chance a negative result is wrong, it misses the disease, and .938 sensitivity means 6.2% chance of a positive result being wrong, healthy people being told they're sick.

  16. #1716
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2008
    Look into positive and negative predictive value in clinical screening. It uses sensitivity and specificity and is similar to Bayesian probability I think in analysing outcomes.

  17. #1717
    Still Subjective
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Quote Originally Posted by zombe View Post
    English is hard man.

    I have been trying to understand the meanings of "specificity" (how good at avoiding false positives) and "sensitivity"
    It's not English, per se, but scientific use of the words.

    The way to remember it is this -

    Sensitivity is the True Trues. Test positive and are really positive. All called the true positive rate.

    Specificity is the False Trues. Test negative and are really negative. Also called the true negative rate.

    So the letters in the words tell you. Simple, eh?

  18. #1718
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    the natives are restless, protest going on in huntington beach and others programmed for San Diego
    (Meme removed)
    it's too soon, we are going to screw the pooch thanks to our retard GOVT .

    things are NOT easy any way you slice it, from a numbers stand point shit does NOT make sense, not to the degree that it will kill our economy, from a libertarian perspective the state has gone full retard, from a pragmatic perspective with a pandemic going on they seeming had to since no one fucking listens. if we were the ONLY country doing fucking lock downs then I would understand the bullshit, this virus seemingly is very contagious but the kill rate is 1-2 percent, I get that we can't overwhelm our hospitals & that we should practice social distancing and stay home as much as possible. that said this is MURIKA and prohibition tends to have the OPPOSITE effect here, that coupled with our stupid GOVT being clear as mud makes for a cluster fuck waiting to happen, people can't afford to stay home and 1200 bucks sure as hell are not going to cover shit. I do foresee more deaths from suicide from people who can't handle stress very well than from the virus.

  19. #1719
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    The ironic thing is that people are pushing for this because they want to get the economy getting going as soon as possible in time of election, but without people actually having the confidence it's safe to go out and buy things, it's more likely to to wreak havoc for all the businesses who gear up to full staff and production.

  20. #1720
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    things are NOT easy any way you slice it, from a numbers stand point shit does NOT make sense, not to the degree that it will kill our economy, from a libertarian perspective the state has gone full retard, from a pragmatic perspective with a pandemic going on they seeming had to since no one fucking listens. if we were the ONLY country doing fucking lock downs then I would understand the bullshit, this virus seemingly is very contagious but the kill rate is 1-2 percent, I get that we can't overwhelm our hospitals & that we should practice social distancing and stay home as much as possible. that said this is MURIKA and prohibition tends to have the OPPOSITE effect here, that coupled with our stupid GOVT being clear as mud makes for a cluster fuck waiting to happen, people can't afford to stay home and 1200 bucks sure as hell are not going to cover shit. I do foresee more deaths from suicide from people who can't handle stress very well than from the virus.
    It seems we're the only 1st world nation that's forcing it's citizens to risk the lives of millions to save their livelihoods.

    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    The ironic thing is that people are pushing for this because they want to get the economy getting going as soon as possible in time of election, but without people actually having the confidence it's safe to go out and buy things, it's more likely to to wreak havoc for all the businesses who gear up to full staff and production.
    We're kinda fucked if we do, fucked if we don't. If we could have endured another month, we'd be on the downswing of this. We could start doing the phased progression back to normalcy, spend the next few months being careful, and we'd have this thing beat with only minimal damage to the economy, and a better case scenario on the number of deaths.

    It seems we can't even do that. I guarantee you we'll have a number of states wide open before May 1st rolls around, right when we just pass the crest of number of infected. We'll see a repeat of what happened in 1918, when some cities broke quarantine too early, and experienced another peak.

    I wonder who Trump will blame then.

    I wonder how many people who attended these rallies contracted coronavirus.

    I wonder who they'll blame.

  21. #1721
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Apparently, there's evidence that it's all astroturfing. Not even subtle or cleverly-hidden astroturfing, at that.

  22. #1722
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Starker, forget the damn election, who the hell can afford to stay home for a whole month with just $1200 bucks? how many businesses can afford to close doors for a month or more? the state is retarded.
    going to copy paste some crap here.

    ********When the State tells you it's safe to go to Home Depot to buy a sponge but dangerous to go and buy a flower, it's not about your health.

    When the State shuts down millions of private businesses but doesn’t lay off a single government employee, it's not about your health.

    When the State bans dentists because its unsafe, but deems abortion visit is safe, it's not about your health.

    When the State prevents you from buying cucumber seeds because it's dangerous, but allows in person lottery ticket sales, it's not about your health.

    When the State tells you it's dangerous to go golf alone, fish alone or be in a motor boat alone, but the Governor can get his stage make up done, and hair done for 5 TV appearances a week, it's not about your health.

    WAKE UP PEOPLE — THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOUR HEALTH

    Copy and pasted. I take no credit, but agree 100%.

    ***********

    I DON'T agree 100% as it has a nasty r-wing bias to it but you need to sit the F down and try to add 2+2=?????? the states and this includes TRUMP say one thing and do as they see fit, how many of those assholes in GOVT have you seen practicing what they preach? where are their fucking gloves? mask? why are they so close together?

    did you see the protest down in Michigan? their governor Lord farqaad (yes she does look and act like him) has gone full retard, they are doing things outside IMHO of their power (Meme removed)

    the more you tell & try to force Murikans to do something the more we resist and do the opposite.

    the numbers seemingly do NOT justify the level of dumbfuckery our POS GOVT has engaged in.

  23. #1723
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Apparently, there's evidence that it's all astroturfing. Not even subtle or cleverly-hidden astroturfing, at that.
    They're not trying to hide it at all. The Michigan Conservative Coalition put itself front and center organizing the protests in their namesake state, and they're supposedly helping other states do the same.

    It's not a conspiracy. This is what they want. They're putting their name on it for everyone to see.

  24. #1724
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    the numbers seemingly do NOT justify the level of dumbfuckery our POS GOVT has engaged in.
    They whole thing has been pretty haphazard, but the stay at home orders did ultimately help drive down the numbers, which itself justifies the response. If we just continued life as usual, it'd be spreading about like a time delayed flu, and probably be seeing 2,000,000 infected by this point rather than the current 750,000.


  25. #1725
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    Starker, forget the damn election, who the hell can afford to stay home for a whole month with just $1200 bucks? how many businesses can afford to close doors for a month or more? the state is retarded.
    It's not up to Lord Dampnut, though, or protesters, it's up to the consumer. If the demand is not going to be there when you open up the economy, if the people aren't going out to dine and wine and spend, guess what will happen then? If you think businesses can't afford to close for a month, guess how well they can afford it when they still have little to no income and a full payroll and other expenses.

    Somehow, all over the world, governments are handling this. They are paying 70%-100% percent of a lot of people's salaries, so that companies can afford to keep them on the payroll. And that's what a state is there for -- to provide that security net. But of course this wouldn't work in the US, because that's socialism.

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