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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #1851
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Renzatic and jkcerda, can you please do us a favor and stop the tit-for-tat machine gun posting that's dominated the thread for the last two days?

    It's bad enough in the Trump thread, but this one is about a GLOBAL pandemic. Personally, I want to know how everybody is doing around the world, share, and learn about what we're going through. Not wade through pages of you guys dueling each other via tweet over US virus politics.

  2. #1852
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    how is the rest of the world doing?
    (Meme removed)
    Last edited by jkcerda; 20th Apr 2020 at 11:37.

  3. #1853
    Member
    Registered: Apr 2002
    Location: Third grave from left.
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Once all this is over, and we have the luxury of spending more time going over the evidence, the fatality rate will end up averaging out to the same numbers we've seen elsewhere.
    Um, sort of ... in general - they will converge but remain significantly (in error bar sense) different ... a bit of clarification perhaps ...

    Differently from common flu - this virus mostly kills in one side of age line. For the total death rates to fully converge it is necessary that:
    * population pyramids to be similar.
    * health care system to be similarly capable throughout the crisis (inc. no variations from local/temporal overtaxing events).
    * comparable exposedness for the virus in all age groups (ie. ability and willingness to protect risk groups).

    So, worst case:
    * population pyramid is top heavy and tall.
    * dominant hot-spots that overwhelm health care system in affected regions.
    * outbreak is sudden - risk groups fail to protect themselves and others fail to do their part in protecting them also.
    * virus gets widespread - it gets more difficult to protect risk group people if the infections are widespread (worst case: affecting nearly everyone till herd immunity kicks in and kills the virus off).
    * health care system gets overwhelmed.
    * virus gets to spread rapidly without obstructions (will result in near total spread, but protection from herd immunity will be less effective for risk groups).
    * no steps are taken to protect risk groups for whatever reason (ex: even merely delaying exposure risks for them will greatly help due to herd immunity as the possible contact chains for the virus will be broken over time for them).

    All of thous have quite a bit of variation among countries. Even if no vaccines show up and the virus gets to kill itself off by infecting everyone it can find - the results will vary depending on previously noted factors.

    I think the total fatality rate among all the infected (let's assume 100% accurate counting here), when all is said and done, will end up varying considerably per country with similar population pyramids and similarly capable health care systems.

    For example: Italy/NY numbers will likely never line up with many other otherwise comparable countries/states.

  4. #1854
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavir...rGin8RQ252K6SQ
    Coronavirus stay-at-home order in California has police giving citations to people watching sunset at beach
    shit like this is why many protest.

    (Meme removed)
    Last edited by Renzatic; 20th Apr 2020 at 15:55.

  5. #1855
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Sage advice from Shapiro. If you want to project the idea that Americans are responsible enough to take care of themselves during this pandemic, you might want to lead by example.

    Meanwhile, in reality...



    I'm pretty sure those people are a lot closer than 6 feet apart. Though to be fair, that one lady on the left does have a mask on.

    And JK. Quit posting twice in a row. Edit your previous links, or wait until someone else posts before making a new one.

    If you keep doing it, I'm gonna give you a week boot. Then you won't have anyone to whine at about tyranny.

  6. #1856
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    is that not tyranny itself?

    if they eased restrictions people would NOT be this restless. it's fucking stupid to concentrate EVERYONE into just the markets & walmart, with nowhere else to go the sick end up going to .............markets & walmart.

    btw it's A BITCH to edit post from phone, shit gets lost really easy & not sure why Pyrian is bitching since I am on the ignore list anyways........
    (Meme removed)

  7. #1857
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    is that not tyranny itself?
    What? Me banning you for a week for doubleposting? It is officially against the rules. I've just been lax about enforcing it.

    if they eased restrictions people would NOT be this restless. it's fucking stupid to concentrate EVERYONE into just the markets & walmart, with nowhere else to go the sick end up going to .............markets & walmart.
    Between the haphazard policies put in place at the last minute, and the people bucking against it all for the simple sake of it, the whole thing is pretty well fucky. All we've done is show the world exactly who and what we are: the inept leading the stupid and easily frightened.

    Also, this is pretty neat.

  8. #1858
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    YOU GUYS enforce rules against minorities? I am Hispanic AND a midget, should I not get a double pass? ...................

    this shit has been in place for what, 3 weeks now? I do agree the inept are leading the stupid.
    (Meme removed) I nope newscum is replaced.

  9. #1859
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    And who should she be replaced with? One of these people?

  10. #1860
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    And who should she be replaced with? One of these people?
    don't care, recall the POS first and we can let the LT Governor deal with things till a new governor is elected.

  11. #1861
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    When this is all over, the thing people will remember most is all the idiots who refused to self isolate and ended up making the whole situation much worse.

    You can't fix stupidity.

  12. #1862
    Member
    Registered: May 2004

  13. #1863
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night

  14. #1864
    Member
    Registered: Jun 2009
    Location: The Spiraling Sea
    *** BREAKING NEWS ***

    *** THIS IS A XENOPHOBIC RACIST DRUMPF ALERT ***



    ...We must now start to feel like the virus is going away, so we can open the borders and win the election!...

    DAMN YOU, DRUMPF!...

  15. #1865
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Xenophobic and/or racist comments are not allowed at TTLG. I'm keeping the above post intact to serve as a reminder to the rest of you that such will not be tolerated.

  16. #1866
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Oh shit. He actually posted a Trump tweet in that too. It didn't pop up until I refreshed the page.

    Double Score Dungeon.

  17. #1867
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by catbarf View Post
    Apparently, there's evidence that it's all astroturfing. Not even subtle or cleverly-hidden astroturfing, at that.
    I guess lawns and sports fields are really small in the US?

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/sta...03895591780352

  18. #1868
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Welp, looks like the Branch Covidians are starting to get their way:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/jackso...th-toll-spiked

    The state of Florida passed two milestones in the coronavirus pandemic this week: its deadliest day yet, and the reopening of several public beaches.

    Hundreds of people flocked to the newly opened beaches in northern Florida on Friday evening, just two weeks into Gov. Ron DeSantis’ monthlong stay-at-home order began. The state is the first of several to start slowly reopening public spaces even as the novel coronavirus continues to spread.

    DeSantis announced Saturday that K-12 schools would remain closed for the rest of the school year, saying he did not want to force families who were uncomfortable with the idea to return to classrooms. Just a day earlier, however, he greenlit the reopening of some beaches, arguing that Floridians needed fresh air.

    “I think people, they’re gonna be responsible, they’re gonna be safe, but they want to get back into a routine,” he said Saturday.

    [...]

    Florida was not the only state moving toward a gradual reopening. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order this week allowing state parks to reopen Monday, though visitors would still be required to wear masks and stay six feet away from anyone not in their household. Abbott also said restrictions on elective medical procedures would be loosened Wednesday and retail stores could open for curbside pickup on Friday.

    Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves also ordered state parks and beaches to reopen from next week, but some local authorities insisted the order allowed them to open immediately. Officials in Harrison County were spotted removing “beach closed” signs from the boardwalk as early as Friday afternoon.

    In Alabama, business owners were reportedly confused by a set of suggestions released by the Small Business Emergency Task Force this week, suggesting that everything from jewelry stores to waxing salons could reopen “immediately.” The suggestions have yet to be adopted. Gov. Kay Ivery plans to announce which restrictions will be lifted by April 28.

    President Donald Trump has also been pushing for states to reopen, amid fears of a possible economic depression. The president initially suggested the country could be open for business by Easter, but walked that back after seeing apocalyptic scenes out of hospitals in New York City.

    The White House issued a three-step guide for governors to use when deciding to reopen, titled “Opening Up America Again.” The plan suggests lifting lockdown orders as soon as a 14-day downward trajectory in cases of COVID-like symptoms and positive tests can be documented.

    “America wants to be open and Americans want to be open,” Trump said in a press conference Thursday. “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution.”

  19. #1869
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Abbot's moves aren't terrible. Maybe a little too loose in some respects, but it's still cautious. The only thing that makes it concerning is that we've yet to pass the peak.

    The rest of them are just begging for it. DeSantis in particular is a complete idiot. After the spring break fiasco here a couple weeks back, you'd think he'd cotton on, and would keep the beaches under lockdown until we were on the downswing of the curve.

    Oh well. All we can do is sit back, and watch the world burn.

  20. #1870
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Looks like Kemp is following suit as well:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/atlant...id-19-lockdown

    Kemp announced Monday that gyms, bowling alleys, hair and nail salons across Georgia would be allowed to reopen so long as they meet some safety thresholds like instituting social distancing policies. Shortly after the announcement, the state Department of Health announced more than 19,000 residents had tested positive for the virus, though the number of new infections has slowed in recent days.

  21. #1871
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Yeah, I know. I'm still staying put, despite the fact that I desperately need a haircut.

  22. #1872
    Chakat sex pillow
    Registered: Sep 2006
    Location: not here
    Meanwhile, India's lockdown continues to May 3. But -- and this is a big but -- as of yesterday, the state has been issuing passes to specific industries to resume work at 50% staffing with social distancing measures in place. While some of this makes sense - logistics, agriculture - some of this doesn't, like extending that pass to hybrid IT/BPO centres. It's meant as a bandage for the economy's gaping wounds, but while our case counts aren't as bad as, say, the US, we're very much in the middle of this getting worse. As of yesterday, the city I live in has become a containment zone for the week, and we're under a curfew. We were about to get back to the office before the official mandate came in to tell us all passes were revoked and everyone's staying at home until next Monday at least.

    This is an incredibly difficult, if not callous, balancing act. Can you offset the number of people dying with the economy going into the red? Is there an acceptable number of human losses to absorb for keeping the lights on at the big offices? At the same time I recognise the problem of this spiralling out into an indefinite future where companies deplete their cash reserves, bleed out and die, but it hasn't even been a month yet. This is too much, too soon. We're headed for a series of spikes at this rate.

  23. #1873
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    If people were incredibly careful and conscientious, and they could be supplied with a ready amount of PPEs and disinfectants for regular use, we could partially open the economy now, and get things rolling.

    Alas, people will take this for granted, and will be shaking hands and slapping backs in a weeks time. Hell, we've already seen just how seriously people are taking this. On top of that, proper protection is still in low supply.

    Expect another spike. All we can do is do what we can.

  24. #1874
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    On top of that, proper protection is still in low supply.
    And individual states have to not only outbid each other, but also fight the government for the supplies:

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...virus-supplies

    Although President Trump has directed states and hospitals to secure what supplies they can, the federal government is quietly seizing orders, leaving medical providers across the country in the dark about where the material is going and how they can get what they need to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

    Hospital and clinic officials in seven states described the seizures in interviews over the past week. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is not publicly reporting the acquisitions, despite the outlay of millions of dollars of taxpayer money, nor has the administration detailed how it decides which supplies to seize and where to reroute them.

    Officials who’ve had materials seized also say they’ve received no guidance from the government about how or if they will get access to the supplies they ordered. That has stoked concerns about how public funds are being spent and whether the Trump administration is fairly distributing scarce medical supplies.

    “In order to have confidence in the distribution system, to know that it is being done in an equitable manner, you have to have transparency,” said Dr. John Hick, an emergency physician at Hennepin Healthcare in Minnesota who has helped develop national emergency preparedness standards through the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

    The medical leaders on the front lines of the fight to control the coronavirus and keep patients alive say they are grasping for explanations. “We can’t get any answers,” said a California hospital official who asked not to be identified for fear of retaliation from the White House.

    [...]

    In response to questions from The Times, a FEMA representative said the agency, working with the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Defense, has developed a system for identifying needed supplies from vendors and distributing them equitably.

    The representative said the agency factors in the populations of states and major metropolitan areas and the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in various locales. “High-transmission areas were prioritized, and allocations were based on population, not on quantities requested,” the representative said.

    But the agency has refused to provide any details about how these determinations are made or why it is choosing to seize some supply orders and not others. Administration officials also will not say what supplies are going to what states.

    [...]

    Experts say judicious use of this authority could help bring order to the medical supply market by routing critical material — ventilators, masks and other protective gear — from suppliers to the federal government and then to areas of greatest need, such as New York.

    Yet there is little indication that federal officials are controlling the market, as hospitals, doctors and others report paying exorbitant prices or resorting to unorthodox maneuvers to get what they need.

    Hospital and health officials describe an opaque process in which federal officials sweep in without warning to expropriate supplies.

    Jose Camacho, who heads the Texas Assn. of Community Health Centers, said his group was trying to purchase a small order of just 20,000 masks when his supplier reported that the order had been taken.

    Camacho was flabbergasted. Several of his member clinics — which as primary care centers are supposed to alleviate pressure on overburdened hospitals — are struggling to stay open amid woeful shortages of protective equipment.

    “Everyone says you are supposed to be on your own,” Camacho said, noting Trump’s repeated admonition that states and local health systems cannot rely on Washington for supplies. “Then to have this happen, you just sit there wondering what else you can do. You can’t fight the federal government.”

  25. #1875
    Member
    Registered: May 2004

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