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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #2201
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    I'd respond, but I'm about to eat this homemade chicken sandwich, watch some movies, then take off on my bike when the rain lets up.

    It will have to wait.

    But I will respond to 3. The ~2.5 trillion bailout we've already spent? The hell you think that is? Though those loans are only for small businesses, not the average 9-5 employee. Even then, a lot of big businesses managed to sneak in, and grab a good chunk for themselves.

    If there's one thing you can say about our leadership in DC, it's that we have no real leadership. Sure as fuck no one with any managerial skills.

    Now, I eat my chicken.

  2. #2202
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    does your bike have a seat? no? take the cobble stone road.................
    (Meme removed)
    Last edited by jkcerda; 20th May 2020 at 18:01.

  3. #2203
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Ironically, most of the US supports the containment strategy over the "let the virus run rampant and kill people" strategy.

    Even to the point where Lord Dampnut was whining that the governors are stealing away approval ratings that rightfully belong to him.
    Last edited by Starker; 20th May 2020 at 18:30.

  4. #2204
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    source to your claims Starker.

  5. #2205
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    There's a few of them. Here's one.

    In general, most people think we're opening a little too early, but they're not demanding we stick around for another couple of months, either.

    Confidence in the reopening wouldn't be quite so bad if it weren't for shit like this.

  6. #2206
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Meanwhile we've had low to no new cases here down under in Middle Earth for the past few days. Stark contrast to what is happening overseas.

  7. #2207
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    What has the lockdown ever done for US?

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...s-report-finds

    A new analysis says nearly 250,000 people in the nation's 30 largest cities are alive today because of strict stay-at-home orders issued by local and state governments.

    The report, from the Urban Health Collaborative at the Dornsife School of Public Health at Drexel University, found the stay-at-home orders likely reduced the number of coronavirus deaths by 232,878 and prevented 2.1 million people from requiring hospitalization.

    The analysis calculated the number of deaths caused by the coronavirus versus a model compiled by mathematicians Gabriel Goh and Steven De Keninck that showed what might have happened had Americans not taken the drastic social distancing steps that governors and local elected officials have ordered and encouraged over the last few months.

    The figures are estimates, but they are meant to illustrate the positive effects such sacrifices have created, said Jennifer Kolker, associate dean for public health practice at the Dornsife School.
    [...]

  8. #2208
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Another consideration is that as infection rates rise and hospitals are overwhelmed, people who might have survived with treatment will die from lack of it. Which means that the mortality rate for Covid-19 will also rise. It's not a linear progression.

    Sorry. I am getting morbidly oblique.

  9. #2209
    Moderator
    Registered: Jan 2003
    Location: NeoTokyo
    It's probably an obvious point, but the foundational problem here is that the economic costs of the lockdown are acute and felt by everybody, whereas avoiding the economic costs of no-lockdown by having a lockdown is counterfactual and not easily felt by people at all.

    People would have to imagine the extra health costs of no-lockdown and then the economic costs that come out of that, and there are all sorts of reasons why people don't have a good sense of that: there's a known cognitive bias (optimism bias) where people feel they are much less likely to suffer a loss (get sick) than their actual risk; they don't want to believe they or their group can get sick and way underestimate the actual risk/loss they're subject to; most people have small imaginations and a lack of empathy; counteractual reasoning is just hard! Etc, etc.

  10. #2210
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/econo...rus/index.html
    38.6 million unemployed.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mFErxx3WnLqH9k
    Coronavirus 'does not spread easily' by touching surfaces or objects, CDC now says. But it still 'may be possible.'
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/as-more-s...164734815.html
    As more states reopen, Georgia defies predictions of coronavirus resurgence. What's the lesson for the rest of the country?
    https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/coron...mpression=true
    The data on new cases is imperfect because of variations between states in the amount and frequency of coronavirus testing. As of Wednesday, Florida has confirmed almost 42,000 coronavirus cases, while Georgia has confirmed 35,000 cases.

    “Cases [in the U.S.] still continue to expand, and some of that is [due to] the fact that we’re testing more,” former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Wednesday on NBC’s The Today Show. Gottlieb cautioned that “this is an epidemic that hasn’t run its course nationally, and hasn’t really started to show sustained declines outside of the New York region.”

    Florida governor Ron Desantis has stated that fears of an impending disaster in his state were overblown.
    Last edited by jkcerda; 21st May 2020 at 12:40.

  11. #2211
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2004
    Then there's the fact that once lockdowns came down, people blame the economic consequences of people staying home on the lockdowns, even though most people were already substantially reducing their purchasing before the lockdown and continue to do so afterwards.

  12. #2212
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    hard to buy things while unemployed.
    you are also correct in people being wary of just spending money, this is going to be a nasty domino effect with even more businesses closing in the coming months.
    with the exception of preppers most of us were not ready for this crap, not just money wise but food and general supplies wise, there is a 3 month back log on freezers, after two months of this crap we are finally seeing beans & rice back in shelves, wife & daughter are finally getting lysol/clorox wipes w/o having to fight someone over them. now keep in mind anyone with a brain knows this shit will again pop up come flu season in a couple of months so I wonder if we are going to again see a bunch of shortages. as of now over 13 million jobs are gone due to over 6000 businesses closing their doors, how long before all these people are added to the homeless population? the cure has been far worse than the disease and damn governors are still looking to extend lock down 2 months?

  13. #2213
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Like how the virus itself wasn't the coming plague that would herald the end of the world, this recession won't bring about the collapse of our economy.

    Yes, things will suck for a bit. The next year or so won't be all that fun. But it's not the end of all things. If there's anything that COULD destroy us, it's the goddamn panic over everything. Rational minds need to prevail here, otherwise we'll fuck things up over the fear that everything's going to be fucked up forever.

  14. #2214
    You're absolutely right.

    Meanwhile Trump continues to fill the swamp. Now we find out his "vaccine tzar" (Appropriate name for an official in an administration with delusions of monarchy) from GlaxoSmithKlein made 3.4 million dollars after the announcement of "progress" on a vaccine that had a trial size of...wait for it.

    EIGHT. Yes, just EIGHT patients.

    Meanwhile we've had low to no new cases here down under in Middle Earth for the past few days. Stark contrast to what is happening overseas.
    When I said Florida and Georgia were lying about decreasing cases, that was correct. New Zealand is probably lying too.

    We're so early into this, and this virus is so deadly and so incredibly contagious that we can safely assume everywhere except probably New York (where Cuomo reacted in a swift, decisive, and science based manner) is lying about their numbers when they claim a decline.


    Like how the virus itself wasn't the coming plague that would herald the end of the world, this recession won't bring about the collapse of our economy.
    I dunno man.

    Maybe not directly. But economists are now saying that 50% of the layoffs are going to become permanent, and out of the retail companies covered by Standard Poors well over half are estimated to have a greater than 50% chance of default with some big name Chapter 7 bankruptcies already having been filed. The estimates I'm seeing are that the "real unemployment" rate is well over 30% and climbing. If that + new ones give us a rate that settles into a 20% real unemployment rate that's really bad. If there is any time in history when that kind of thing did NOT massively empower extremists and lead to significantly social upheaval I am unaware of it.
    Last edited by Tony_Tarantula; 21st May 2020 at 15:02.

  15. #2215
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    hard to buy things while unemployed.
    Maybe trump should rescind the tax break for the 1% and all the corporate welfare he's been handing out and feed the hungry instead. At least that money will get spent.

    However bad the economic effect this has on people it would.will be much worse if quarantines and stay at home orders are ignored. This isn't a matter of one or the other.

  16. #2216
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Nicker View Post
    Maybe trump should rescind the tax break for the 1% and all the corporate welfare he's been handing out and feed the hungry instead. At least that money will get spent.

    However bad the economic effect this has on people it would.will be much worse if quarantines and stay at home orders are ignored. This isn't a matter of one or the other.
    that is an assumption based on earlier flawed models. see links in post 2210.

  17. #2217
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    91,000 dead already. Model that please.

    Link 1 - irrelevant to disease spread.

    Link 2 - The video contradicts the text. So if COVID is not "easily" spread on surfaces it is still spreading like crazy.

    Link 3 and 4 - Georgia was caught LYING about their infection and death stats. I wonder why? (see post 2124)

    But by all means do tell the people of Northern Italy that COVID isn't a real, life threatening problem.
    Last edited by Nicker; 21st May 2020 at 17:07.

  18. #2218
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Nicker, try post 2200

    91k dead using BS cdc "guidelines". plenty of dead were NOT TESTED, instead they got the because if similar symptoms and got counted because here it pays to count them that way.

    nearing 40 million unemployed, how many of those will end up homeless? the "cure" has been far worse than the disease.

  19. #2219
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    How many were not tested? What percentage of the current estimate is false? How many people die of pneumonia or other flu like illnesses in a three month span? How greatly could these other deaths being misidentified expand the current Covid fatality toll? 1? 10? 100? 1000? 10,000? What?

    Okay, I did some rough estimating for you.

    According to this, we lost about 50,000 people to pneumonia related illnesses in 2017. That's over a 12 month period. So doing some street maff statistics, you could say that 4,100 people die from it per month.

    Assuming that things are about equal here in 2020, then from February to now, we've lost about 12,000 people to pneumonia.

    Over the last three months, we've clocked in 96,000 coronavirus deaths.
    12,000 of these may be pneumonia cases misattributed as Covid-19 deaths due to similar symptoms.
    That gives us a margin of error of around 12%.
    So we should be saying that Coronavirus has killed anywhere between 84,000 to 96,000 people.

    Even in a situation where ALL pneumonia deaths have been misidentified, that's still a fuckton of people in a three month period.

    You're picking at nits.
    Last edited by Renzatic; 21st May 2020 at 18:06.

  20. #2220
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    over 6 k businesses permanently closed , that is about 13 million yobs that are not coming back any time soon, near over 38 million unemployed , 25 trillion in debt and the coming bankruptcies from all of those w/o work is going to do wonders for us in the coming future, to top it off come fall you guys will be again screaming to shut things down. suicides will outnumber virus deaths. staying at home should be a CHOICE, not a mandate.

  21. #2221
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Lockdown... if only
    I get so frustrated with these debates, which are the same all over the internet. People talk like governments can snap their fingers and everything goes back to normal. It's a fantasy. No matter what government restrictions are lifted, the economy isn't going to return to normal as long as the virus is spreading untraceably through communities.

    Contrary to popular belief, MOST people do have some common sense. They're not going to flock back into restaurants and bars in the middle of a pandemic just because the government removes it's emergency order. Most people are not going to send their kids off to camps and other summer programs, or get on airplanes or take trips to crowded tourist destinations. Most people are still going to be reluctant to go hospitals and clinics for elective procedures when they are handling COVID-19 cases. People are going to hold off on major purchases for a while because they don't know how long this is going to last. People in the cities are particularly nervous about having their populations double every day with throngs of commuters coming in, and most people are not going to be comfortable packing themselves together like sausages onto public transport.

    Many governments will try to coerce people into going back to work by cutting off their unemployment benefits and other COVID-19 relief programs. But if the demand doesn't return, the work won't be there, and the jobs will be permanently lost.

    Some governments will also try manipulating the data to convince people there's no longer a threat. It's already happening here in a few US states (VA, GA, FL). But thankfully, most of us have an independent press that will shine light on that.

    So when does it end? It ends when the spread of the virus is traceable and controlled. The longer it takes to get there, the slower the economic recovery will be. The faster we control the spread of the virus, the faster we return to normal. I don't understand why that isn't sinking in. The people fighting against virus control measures are saboteurs, wrecking the economic recovery. Even if they're too blinded by political allegiance or too ignorant to understand what they're doing, they're culpable.

  22. #2222
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Why were you not freaking out this bad in 2008?

    Despite the phrase being bandied about way too much, we're not in a "new normal." This will pass at some point. Probably not as soon as we'd like, but it will pass. Whether we try and minimize fatalities, or let people do what they will, damn the consequences, the economy will eventually recover.

    Fret the fuck not, yo.

  23. #2223
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Nicker, try post 2200
    There are no links in post 2200. I responded to your claims about post 2210, as requested - leave the goalposts alone.

    If we can't trust any of the data then your assertions are as BS as any others.

    Choosing between data provided by medical professionals for various international sources or the swill concocted by Donald "Per capita relative to WHAT?" and Georgia's "we lie you die" charts, I will choose the former.
    Last edited by Nicker; 21st May 2020 at 18:41.

  24. #2224
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony_Tarantula View Post
    When I said Florida and Georgia were lying about decreasing cases, that was correct. New Zealand is probably lying too.

    We're so early into this, and this virus is so deadly and so incredibly contagious that we can safely assume everywhere except probably New York (where Cuomo reacted in a swift, decisive, and science based manner) is lying about their numbers when they claim a decline.
    We also acted in a swift, decisive and science based manner. Though a closing our borders a week earlier should have been done sooner.

    We've been pretty open and transparent about that.

  25. #2225
    New Member
    Registered: Oct 2019
    Location: Seattle
    I may be repeating someone else, but I thought I should point out that ongoing research studies at Washington University, Columbia University, MIT, Los Alamos, Northeastern University, the University of Texas and the University of Massachusetts--though their modeling methods and results differ--show a slow and steady decline to zero deaths per day in the US from July through September, state by state. I don't think anybody is predicting a second wave except cable news networks. That said, these are computer models that, while complex, can't factor everything in, especially since this is a "moving train". But it is a more optimistic outlook than the narrative being presented by the 24-hour news media.
    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Perdustin; 21st May 2020 at 21:59.

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