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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #201
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2014
    Location: Istanbul, Turkey
    Hailing from Turkey. No reported cases here yet, but I don't believe what our goverment says.

  2. #202
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night

  3. #203
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Some sound life advice.


  4. #204
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Some sound life advice.

    It sounds like a gunpoint discussion.

  5. #205
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    It sounds like a gunpoint discussion.
    welcome to Murika
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4...republicans-on


    (Meme removed)

    just more proof they are all in the pockets of the HC industry
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...cy-bill-119729

  6. #206
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...EcXYw1SZIt1RSc
    Boston & NY have massive public transportation , which are ripe for spreading disease.

  7. #207
    BANNED
    Registered: Dec 1999
    Location: Idiocy will never die
    Doesn't everywhere?

  8. #208
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    here in kommiefornia it's not really feasible to just be on public transportation, if you want a decent yob you need a car so you can commute to it, we looked at the train & buses to get my daughter to school (60 mile trip one way); it would take her over 4 hrs to get there IF she made all the connections on time and that was ONE way. Boston & NY have decent subway systems, CA does not. other than the time the price was basically a damn car payment per month..

  9. #209
    Credit to the Meme Policeman regarding people making flu comparisons:



    This sort of analysis has been popular among segments of both the left and the right over the past few weeks. In a rush to dismiss the problem, people compare the death toll of the coronavirus to that of the common flu, or perhaps with automobile deaths, cancer, diabetes, etc. While this is appealing to the rational brain, it makes the fallacy of comparing different risk types. More specifically, fat tailed vs. thin tailed risks, which author Nassim Taleb has famously discussed at length in lectures and books. The mathematics behind it gets quite complicated, but here’s the gist to understanding why it’s simply wrong to compare the fat-tailed risks of the coronavirus and thin tailed ones like the common flu or cancer.

    -To illustrate different worlds of probabilities, imagine you randomly took two people and were told their total height was 12 feet. Based on the probability distribution in this scenario, the most likely result would be that each were 6 ft tall. It would be extraordinarily unlikely that one was 4 feet and one was 8 ft. Now imagine you took two random people and were told their total net worth was $30 million. Based on the probability in this scenario, the most likely result is that one is worth $30M and the other $0, it would be extraordinarily unlikely that each were worth $15M. It’s clearly important to distinguish between different probabilities or your assessment of a situation could be way off.

    -Another example is if you gave 100 people money to gamble with for a day, you’d expect a certain result, a small-moderate loss, but not a catastrophic one. There might be a few who lost everything, but some would win, and overall there’s almost no chance of losing everything. Compare this with having just one person gamble for 100 days. The chances of catastrophe and losing everything are far greater. The risks are not the same, even though they could appear to be superficially. The first is a thin tailed risk, the second a fat tailed one.

    -Often you’ll year something like, “You are statistically more likely to die drowning in your bathtub than from a terrorist attack.” This makes the same fallacy as this meme, in wrongly comparing risk types. There is virtually no chance that bathtub drownings will double this year, let alone go up by 10X, it’s a mostly known, thin tailed risk. But there is a chance that terrorist deaths could double, or go up 10-100X. There’s also no chance of bathtub drownings causing a global recession or a war. Thus, it’s completely rational to worry about terrorism more than bathtub drownings, as the two are radically different in their risk types. The response should also be different, it would be unwise to shift anti-terrorism spending to bathtub safety programs (at least assuming the anti-terrorism spending decreased the risk).

    -The same is true of potential pandemics (fat tails) vs common diseases (thin tails). There’s virtually no chance that common flu deaths will double this year, let alone go up by 10 times. There is a risk that the coronavirus deaths will go up 10, 100, 1000 times current levels. There’s essentially no risk of cancer causing a global recession or overwhelming our medical system, there is of a pandemic. Comparing the two different risk types is wrong, and even dangerous. One event is known and can be controlled for, the other is unknown and potentially catastrophic.

  10. #210
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Quote Originally Posted by jkcerda View Post
    just more proof they are all in the pockets of the HC industry
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...cy-bill-119729
    The biggest takeaway from that article is that no one knows exactly what's going on, and no one's on the same page about anything.

  11. #211
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post


    399-359+113 (death / ex ICU)=153 new ICUs patients

    in 1 day


    440-399+66 (death / ex ICU)=105 new ICUs patients

    No more acceleration in ICU! (153->105)

  12. #212
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    The biggest takeaway from that article is that no one knows exactly what's going on, and no one's on the same page about anything.
    For me one thing stands out -- the debate about making testing free and making vaccines as cheap as possible, if not free of cost. Why on dear Earth is this a debate at all? What is the point of testing people if you only test those who can afford it? And do your Republicans not know how vaccines work? What herd immunity is?

  13. #213
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    It's America.
    Somebody has to get rich off of this.
    If not, that's communism.
    Can't have communism in the bestest country in the world.

  14. #214
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    we already have far too much communism, that communism is how we are able to afford bombing the shit out of countries with brown people......

  15. #215
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    There's an easy test to tell how communist something is. Ask yourself:

    Are people allowed to own their own property and profit off of it?

    [ ] Yes
    [ ] No

    If the answer is yes, then it's not communism. If the answer is no, you're probably going to jail because you're engaging in treason against the party by discussing this shit.

  16. #216
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    ALL ITALY is now in lockdown.

    Maaaaaaaaaaaaan.

  17. #217
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Did you go to the butcher like your mom asked?

  18. #218
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Death by Coronavirus vs age here in Italy (2 weeks)

    1 % -> 50-59
    10%-> 60-69
    31%-> 70-79
    44%-> 80 e 89
    14%-> over 90

  19. #219
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    Did you go to the butcher like your mom asked?
    Of course

    And what a fine piece of meat we've bought

  20. #220
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    Then you're good! Stay inside, and weather the storm with your tasty sandwiches.

  21. #221
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Ah, our "patient 1" (we don't know the zero) has recovered today, he's out of the ICU.
    After 2 weeks.....(it was a really bad case)

  22. #222
    Moderator and Priest
    Registered: Mar 2002
    Location: Dinosaur Ladies of the Night
    What's his prognosis?

    In the meanwhile, Trump has blamed the media for the stock market collapse today. His ardent followers are now on Facebook attacking all the local news stations for "spreading panic" every time they post a story about something shutting down due to the virus.

    ...it's a fucking cult, I swear to god.

  23. #223
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    What's his prognosis?
    We don't know and we don't know the therapy used in that (really bad) case (38 yo, marathon runner, very athletic, you got the type)
    What we know he's now breathing autonomously.

    For sure in these outlier cases there's a role played by the inflammatory response and a long running infection before the hospitalization.

  24. #224
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    Quote Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
    ...it's a fucking cult, I swear to god.
    I know man, here in Italy it's the same with this:



    They magnetize simpletons.
    It's really their mission, to be the "opinion leader" of the plebs.
    A degenerated Tribune of the plebs, literally ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribune_of_the_plebs )

  25. #225
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by lowenz View Post
    ALL ITALY is now in lockdown.

    Maaaaaaaaaaaaan.
    wish you and your family the best


    here .
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=kttr...3BPOI2DAzujtC0

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