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Thread: ☣ Coronavirus ☣

  1. #2301
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2002
    Location: In the flesh.
    Uncle JW used to love to travel. Once he even went across country from California to Mississippi on a motorcycle only a few months after a hip replacement. He sent us post cards and sometimes we went to see the places he recommended. They were always great places. Just last year it was Royal Gorge, Colorado. Though he was my wife's uncle, me and him got on great, we traded books, we visited the best damn car museum in the US, he always wanted us to come out so he could take us on a tour of Universal Studios which was near his house. It won't happen now. Not long back he got a Leukemia diagnosis and I told Rena we better go soon. Then last month he got Covid 19. He fought it for quite a while and I had begun to hope he would pull through. I don't want to see him in a coffin and his kids I didn't much care for though they were closer to my age. He was always a happy guy. Jesus he had big teeth and didn't mind showing them off. I prefer to recall him laughing.

  2. #2302
    Chakat sex pillow
    Registered: Sep 2006
    Location: not here
    Quote Originally Posted by bob_doe_nz View Post
    Only 8 known cases left! Fuck yeah. But one more death
    I hope that's the last one. No one deserves any more of this.

    Good on NZ being part of the very few countries who've modelled how decisive and intelligent action needs to be done in a situation like this.

  3. #2303
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Congrats, New Zealand.

    Unfortunately, in Europe, we botched the response badly. We knew about the first cases in January (which means the virus was here already weeks before, and retesting old samples from December has confirmed this), but many governments continued downplaying the severity of the threat and allowing mass gatherings. It wasn't until mid March, when we were already the hotspot for the virus, that lockdowns were put in place.

  4. #2304
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Problem is that as soon as we open our borders we're risking a second wave of infections. And there is the risk that someone from Oz could be asymptomatic. Especially as we're trying to get the trans-tasman bubble re-engaged again.

  5. #2305
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    There seems to be a clear correlation between locking down early and the death count.



    Unsurprisingly, UK with its "can't stop shaking hands" PM is on top. Italy I think gets a little bit of slack, as they were hit early and hard and have the worst demographic situation out of all Europe.

    Of course, you also have to keep in mind that this is far from over and in many countries the number of excess deaths is still accumulating.

  6. #2306
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Stay the course, NZ. Reinfection from certain careless neighbours is the biggest threat here in Canada too.

    I live on an island so we have been well insulated. The rest of BC is in pretty good shape but eastern Canada is still a hot zone thanks in large part to Rob Ford, the Trump Of The North, although he at least has the decency to be contrite and actually chastised the thousands of people (and by people I mean idiots) who packed the public parks this past weekend. Thankfully transmission in outdoor spaces is not as severe but there will be a new spike.

  7. #2307
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    The US reach 100k deaths yesterday. I was wrong, I predicted 100k around May 20th. It was May 27th. If this trend continues, the US won't reach 500k by the end of the year. Only 200k-300k.

    Good news in NL. We have the number of deaths and the number of new hospitalizations down to ~10-20 per day. We're slowly opening up. I can notice that when I go into town (I live in the middle of nowhere), the tension is gone completely. Most people are trying to keep their 1.5m distance. A bit. Sometimes. But the atmosphere is a lot more relaxed than 2 months ago. We got plans to open up stuff slowly (restaurants, terraces, gyms, more shops, etc).

    Let's hope we keep this under control. I'm very very good at self-isolation, but I rather not be in another 3-month lock-down.

  8. #2308
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2005
    Location: Not Kansas
    Meanwhile, here in the U.S. we're starting on our second wave of this accursed epidemic. But hey, boy howdy, let's all head to the local pool, beach or bar and make sure our rights aren't being trampled on, right? Selfish fucking morons. *smh*

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...154847924.html

    <a href="https://imgur.com/hKT6feD"><img src="https://i.imgur.com/hKT6feD.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    I sure hope karma's paying attention to idiots like that.

  9. #2309
    Member
    Registered: Dec 2006
    Location: Berghem Haven
    The shutdown? The LOCKDOWN.

    'muricans.

  10. #2310
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    Quote Originally Posted by Dia View Post
    Meanwhile, here in the U.S. we're starting on our second wave of this accursed epidemic. But hey, boy howdy, let's all head to the local pool, beach or bar and make sure our rights aren't being trampled on, right? Selfish fucking morons. *smh*

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...154847924.html

    <a href="https://imgur.com/hKT6feD"><img src="https://i.imgur.com/hKT6feD.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    I sure hope karma's paying attention to idiots like that.
    I think what pisses you guys off is that Darwin is NOT paying attention to what you wish. there is not a single person forcing you or anyone else to go out.
    Last edited by jkcerda; 28th May 2020 at 11:28.

  11. #2311
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    there is not a single person forcing you or anyone else to go out.
    But there are plenty of sign waving assholes forcing people to stay inside longer than people in civilised countries have to. What does your sign say, JK?



    Did you wake up, look yourself in the mirror and declare, "I need to say something stupider today than that stupid thing I said yesterday"!

    oh please, had Oclueless suggested hydroxy you guys along with the POS MSM would be all over the place saying how safe it's been all this years blah blah blah , you should ask your DR for it blah blah blah.

  12. #2312
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    how the hell are they forcing YOU to stay inside? you are free to go out just like they are.

  13. #2313
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN

  14. #2314
    Member
    Registered: Aug 2003
    Location: Jafaville New Zealand
    Only one active case. YEAH BABY!!!

  15. #2315
    LittleFlower
    Registered: Jul 2001
    Location: Netherlands
    Everybody is talking how covid-19 is robbing us from our freedom. But what is worse, is that because of that, nobody talks anymore about how covid-19 is caused/enhanced/introduced by the new 5G cellphone-towers. If we can protect ourselves from 5G-radiation, we have also protected us from covid-19 !

    Today I ran into this protection device, the "5G bio protection shield":
    https://5gbioshield.com/

    It looks awesome. It's just a bit expensive. I'm wondering if I should buy just one for myself, or should buy 3 at once (with a discount). And then give the other 2 to my beloved ones. Check it out, you might want one for yourself.

  16. #2316
    Member
    Registered: Feb 2001
    Location: Somewhere
    the only freedom was all in your minds anyway, what we had before wasnt normal, so we will never return to it. For a moment there it almost felt like we were on the cusp of something...different. but nah

  17. #2317
    Member
    Registered: Mar 2001
    Location: Melbourne, Australia
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    There seems to be a clear correlation between locking down early and the death count.



    Unsurprisingly, UK with its "can't stop shaking hands" PM is on top. Italy I think gets a little bit of slack, as they were hit early and hard and have the worst demographic situation out of all Europe.

    Of course, you also have to keep in mind that this is far from over and in many countries the number of excess deaths is still accumulating.
    Of course no mention of NZ or Australia on there.

  18. #2318
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Location: Canuckistan GWN
    Quote Originally Posted by Gryzemuis View Post
    I'm wondering if I should buy just one for myself, or should buy 3 at once (with a discount). And then give the other 2 to my beloved ones. Check it out, you might want one for yourself.
    The inventor's CV checks out. Maybe we could all chip in to get one for the TTLG server and collectively benefit from Redistributive Inductive Planck Orgone Field Fysics.


    Quote Originally Posted by icemann View Post
    Of course no mention of NZ or Australia on there.
    Because that would just be bragging and might get some orange dander up somewhere.

  19. #2319
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Quote Originally Posted by Starker View Post
    There seems to be a clear correlation between locking down early and the death count.

    That trend looks suspiciously clean.

    Where did the estimated number of infections on lockdown day come from? Nobody has any data to ground such extrapolations. We haven't even sampled enough of the population to make a good guess of current infections.
    Where did they get excess deaths? I know that for the US, on May 27 (the date on the graph), excess death counts were only available up to May 9, and the May 2 and May 9 data was incomplete.
    How did they come up with a lockdown day for the US when it was the states that imposed lockdowns? They didn't do it all at the same time or to the same degree, and a handful didn't do it at all.
    Why is Sweden even on this graph when it didn't shut down?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dia View Post
    Meanwhile, here in the U.S. we're starting on our second wave of this accursed epidemic. But hey, boy howdy, let's all head to the local pool, beach or bar and make sure our rights aren't being trampled on, right? Selfish fucking morons. *smh*
    Most states are still in the middle of the first wave. At least a dozen of them haven't even reached a peak yet. You live in one of those states, right? Wisconsin, where the state Supreme Court struck down the stay at home order a few weeks ago and now we're seeing the expected rise in cases? If so, you have my sincere sympathy. I would not want to live there this year.

  20. #2320
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    That trend looks suspiciously clean.

    Where did the estimated number of infections on lockdown day come from? Nobody has any data to ground such extrapolations. We haven't even sampled enough of the population to make a good guess of current infections.
    Where did they get excess deaths? I know that for the US, on May 27 (the date on the graph), excess death counts were only available up to May 9, and the May 2 and May 9 data was incomplete.
    How did they come up with a lockdown day for the US when it was the states that imposed lockdowns? They didn't do it all at the same time or to the same degree, and a handful didn't do it at all.
    Why is Sweden even on this graph when it didn't shut down?
    You might want to read the article itself and the fine print below the charts. It's explained in more detail there.

    The data were compiled from national statistical agencies for 19 countries for which sufficient information exists to make robust comparisons. The figures include all of the European countries hit hard by coronavirus. The periods for comparison are from when death rates in individual countries climbed above five-year averages.

    The FT has made these comparisons for the first time because the level of deaths in other hard-hit European countries, such as Italy and Spain, has returned close to the seasonal norm.

    Excess mortality is calculated by counting everyone who has died in a country and subtracting the average number of people who passed away over the same period in the past five years.

    It therefore tallies the number of people who died either directly from Covid-19 or indirectly, for example if they were unable or unwilling to seek treatment in hospital, and does not reflect different testing regimes for the virus in different countries.
    Where a country did not lock down, lockdown-day refers to when transit usage fell below 50% normal levels.
    Here's the updated chart, btw, with population numbers taken into account:

    Last edited by Starker; 29th May 2020 at 11:41.

  21. #2321
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    BTW, I often just clip out the most salient points and leave a link to the original source, so I'd encourage anyone to go to the source of the things I post and read them for yourself for the full picture. I've been trying to mark the omissions, so that it would be clear, but in this case, I guess it wasn't really obvious that the footnotes below the graph explained the things on the graph, because they were so small. But anyway, the full article is here: https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-...2-648ffde71bf0

  22. #2322
    Member
    Registered: Sep 2001
    Location: Land of the crazy
    Thanks.

    I read the article and unfortunately, it doesn't answer any of my questions. Worse yet, they don't provide any information about their data sources at all.

    I'm questioning it because I know for a fact that US excess deaths are compiled weekly, but the reporting lags by about two weeks. Also, the weekly totals are incomplete when first reported and revised up afterward as late reports trickle in. So the last three available weekly totals (May 2, 9, 16) should not be considered reliable. I don't know how other countries count & report excess deaths, but there's probably others for which it lags too. I was hoping the article would say which date the excess death counts were valid for, but it doesn't. It only says "Data updated May 27". Their excess deaths total for the US is less than the official count of Covid-19 deaths as of May 27. The same looks to be true for a few other countries, so if the data is real, it's can't be current through May 27. Without giving a validity date or attributing their sources of data, nobody can fact check this.

    For countries that didn't have a lockdown day (Sweden) or didn't have a single lockdown day (US), they don't bother to say what day they used. I Googled around for a bit to find data about Sweden's transit usage during the pandemic, and the only source I found was based on Android phone location data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf
    But it only goes back to April 9.

    Further, there's no explanation of how the number of infections on lockdown day were estimated. That's the statistic I find particularly dubious. Note they are not using the official numbers of confirmed cases on lockdown day, they are trying to estimate the total number of infected, including those who are asymptomatic, or symptomatic but did not get tested. None of the countries on this graph have enough testing capacity to even measure this today, let alone back in March. The best we could do is to perform a controlled antibody test on a broad-based random population sample to estimate what percentage of the population has been infected. But we haven't done that, and even if we had, it wouldn't tell you when people were infected. So you'd have to extrapolate backwards using positive PCR data over time as a guide, and we know you can't compare that country to country (or even region to region within a country) because we've been testing at different rates.

    The other thing I find wrong with the whole premise of this comparison is that different countries are in different stages of this first wave. Most of the countries they're using from mainland Europe are on the tail end. But the UK is not there yet, the US is further behind, Sweden further still, and Chile and Peru are still on the front end of the curve.

    And I am sorry Starker, I feel like I'm shooting the messenger here. I just thought FT was a somewhat reputable source, but this has me thinking otherwise. Given all the differences between countries' lockdown measures, population density, and how far along the curve they are, I found it rather unbelievable that all the countries would line up so tightly along the regression line, which conveniently supported the authors' criticism of the UK's response. And then oops, we forgot to control for population, and now the correlation mostly falls apart. Seems very suspicious to me. And unable to be fact checked.

  23. #2323
    Member
    Registered: May 2004
    Yes, as I said the first time, you should be careful in how you interpret this data, since some countries are still accumulating excess deaths at a very rapid pace. And yes, the numbers will be revised for months and years to come and this is at most a very rough picture based on publicly released and likely preliminary figures. But that's the nature of the beast of trying to assess something still in progress, isn't it? At least until all the data is in and has been revised, which will probably take years and years. Could they be clearer about their sources, sure, but you simply cannot expect the level or rigour from a newspaper article that you would get from a scientific paper. Speaking of which, I think it's also a bit unfair to say that they "forgot to control for population". That data was always there in the article, even before they revised that one chart. In fact, their very first chart in the article reflects this (and always did).

    Also, even if you doubt FT's intentions, I don't think there's any doubt that UK has been hit hard by this epidemic, having more cases and deaths than any other country in Europe and being second only to the US worldwide. And I think there's a good case to be made that the slow response and the initial plan of going for herd immunity contributed to that.

    Also also, The Guardian reached pretty much the same conclusion (and seems to have links to their sources):

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...-levels-europe

    Patterns in the data show countries that locked down earlier tended to have fewer deaths. Austria, which imposed strict containment measures on 16 March, when there was just one death attributed to Covid-19 in the country, recorded a peak in excess deaths of 14%. By contrast, the Netherlands waited until its excess deaths were already 17% higher than usual before locking down, and at its peak the death toll was 74% above average.
    Last edited by Starker; 29th May 2020 at 18:13.

  24. #2324
    Quote Originally Posted by heywood View Post
    Thanks.


    And I am sorry Starker, I feel like I'm shooting the messenger here. I just thought FT was a somewhat reputable source, but this has me thinking otherwise. Given all the differences between countries' lockdown measures, population density, and how far along the curve they are, I found it rather unbelievable that all the countries would line up so tightly along the regression line, which conveniently supported the authors' criticism of the UK's response. And then oops, we forgot to control for population, and now the correlation mostly falls apart. Seems very suspicious to me. And unable to be fact checked.

    I'm not sure it does line up neatly along the line. The graph exhibits noticeable negative autocorrelation of the residuals but unfortunately they're not giving us quite enough data to run a Durbin-Watson test across the entire sample.

  25. #2325
    BANNED
    Registered: Nov 2016
    Location: Trollinus Maximus
    virus is gone, millions are out there burning & looting.

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