Reply With QuoteWell, well, we need to change the title of the thread....
Never defended the NATO use by USA: of course USA make colonies through military bases and pop culture. Still I don't like the Ruski Mir fascism based on stupid anti-America propaganda: it's not a real critique of US society model, it's just angry envy.Originally Posted by DuatDweller
It's not even a consistent "empowering" russian/slav cultural identity project, is just a sloppy ('800s slavophilia-> Putin's russophobia) political tool created to fill the empty space occupied back in the days by soviet ideals (always remember that russian traditionalists like Dugin hate russian communist Cosmism MORE than the "Satanic West")
Russian elites dream to be like the USA elites, that's what you must realize: they're no "alternative" to anything at all.
I detest the very same concept of "elite" of any kind when it comes to imperial ambitions: USA international market brokers bringing "prosperity", Himmler SS Third Reich knights bringing "order", iranian Revolutionary Guards bringing "salvation", Ruski Mir prokhanovists telling me they're the proper heirs of the Varangian Guard of East Roman Empire (ahahahah).
Why? Because I totally detest this kind of "foundation myth" ideology - and I mean "ideology" in the proper original Marx meaning of the word.
They're dangerous fantasies to me, just different spins of the same will to weaponize people dragging them by some romantic and hyperuranic "hidden truth that now must finally be unleashed to the world and that's our holy duty".....as a leash.
EDIT: put nostalgic "samurai" Japan in the list too, still they're the more honest and "honorable" (as all those guys love so much to be recognized) of the bunch.
Last edited by lowenz; 3rd Aug 2024 at 05:28.
Well, well, we need to change the title of the thread....
I hope they can hold it. Nothing gives a counterargument to Russia's demand that negotiations can't begin until Ukraine signs off on Russia keeping land it stole by occupation better than Ukraine occupying Russian land in the meantime.
Ukraine counterattacking somewhere that isn't fortified to hell and back, lol
They'll have a far better chance of getting all their territory back during peace settlements if they're holding Russian territory.
Ah yes, like the Belgian hole in the Maginot Line.
If you watch Vlad Vexler's video on this, the idea apparently is that Ukraine is getting pushed into attacking into Russia if Western support softens up. So reducing its arms actually risks greatly escalating the war because it's not leaving Ukraine with any other choice, in a kind of reversal of conventional wisdom by the people debating it, or anyway normal people & definitely people taken with Russian propaganda.
The other idea from his video, which he supported by several other commentators, was that everyday Russians outside of the immediate era don't distinguish Kursk from Ukraine anyway, since they see Russia as this seamless entity that never has clear borders around it, which is what makes its neighboring countries always so nervous. (What I know most about the area are all the Barbarossa scenarios in different wargames, and Kursk always feels part of the Ukraine campaign, just masses of tanks rolling across the steppes.) Actually I first heard that idea in Timothy Snyder's class on Ukraine. The Soviet Union was conceived without borders; it was supposed to be a worldwide revolution, and the borders didn't get set until the Bolsheviks reached Poland and couldn't go any further, and even then it was more of a de facto armistice line than anything essential. Anyway, Vlad didn't think this incursion is going to wake up the bulk of the Russian population; they know what's happening, but they don't want to be politicized.
There was some American commentator comparing it to two surprise attacks that didn't mean much militarily or politically, Washington's crossing of the Delaware and Jubal Early's raid into Maryland and DC in the summer of 1864 US Civil War, near the end. Early's raid didn't have any effect on the war at all (I think he might have picked Battle of the Bulge to be closer to home though), and Washington's raid was famously effective by boosting morale, resolve, and French support.
Anyway, he was trying to make the case that Zelenksyy's was more like the Delaware crossing than the other. I don't know how well that sets with Vlad's analysis though. He paints it not so much as psychological but an attack out of necessity as every other option is getting cut off. I guess we'll see what comes of it.
With the arrival of the F-16 to Ukraine, I always had this question in my mind: will it be equipped with jammer pods and ECM pods under its wings and will they be effective? (definitely it's a f-16 and not the ea-18 growler)
On the other hand, I have seen an increase in ISR aircraft traffic (you can see these aircraft on adsbexchange and flightaware.People on /r/flightradar often ask why these airplanes fly in patterns and loops. Can it be conflated to NATO air policing anyway?) in the airspace around the border of Poland - Belarus - Kaliningrad - Western Ukraine (Lviv) and also around constanta - romania ). Now they are covering Finnish region up to Barents Sea (RC-135 and business jets modified to carry out sigint / elint tasks. Some guardrail aircraft have been replaced with these modified business jets). Some AEW aircraft are also frequently airborne, both using rotodome and AESA radar. By the way, electronic warfare topic is an interesting topic.
It seems that missiles with multi guidance mode will not be easily impacted
Last edited by taffernicus; 13th Aug 2024 at 21:54. Reason: typo
I think the primary use for the new planes will be as weapons platforms -- to make use of the Western missiles that aren't compatible with the current fleet. The main challenge will be keeping them in tact, as they'll no doubt be high priority targets. Ukraine has only a limited number of suitable airfields and they all have come under increased fire lately.
Also, from what I understand, these are older models of F16s that are not that strong in the EW department in the first place.
Last edited by Starker; 14th Aug 2024 at 03:31.
Vlad is sad because the kid he was beating up, hit back.
As Mike Tyson said, "Everyone's got a plan for world domination until they get punched in the mouth".
I hope it doesn't get destroyed while still parked on the ground/hangar and always kept safe . I also forgot that the series of the f-16 also plays a part such as f-16 block C and D which were in operation throughout the 1980s until 2000s and the technology is quite different. Rumor has it that they will also get f-16 block 72 a.k.a viper which has the latest advanced technology and that surprises me. It's a perfect fit for the jammer pod.(*edit :
I doubt they will get f-16 block 60 or 70/72 at minimum. The f-16 that was just received yesterday, although it looks old, it must have been upgraded or retrofitted)
In my opinion, the more varied the fighter jet fleet, the higher the maintenance difficulty or maintenance nightmare. For a moment I was also interested in fighter jet interoperability challenges and integration challenges especially the data link aspect...
Last edited by taffernicus; 15th Aug 2024 at 08:12.
sometimes I dream about what if the "ghost of kyiv really" happened but this time they used a combat plane with a small radar signature...
I think one of the challenges that delayed getting F-16s to Ukraine is the need to engineer a Ukraine-specific avionics package that could interoperate with Ukrainian forces, not NATO forces, and be free from any NATO or US stuff that we didn't want falling into Russian hands. Another challenge is that they need to be self-sufficient. I don't think we want these F-16s flying back and forth to NATO bases for routine inspections and repair because then it's a NATO operation. That would mean Ukraine needs hangars with all the right maintenance and test equipment, tools, consumables, depots with spares, engine and avionics repair facilities, and a small army of trained people. Not to mention ordnance. And these need cleaner runways than the old MiGs. I hope they are worth it.
I don't know for how long they can keep it up against Russia, the last I knew (unofficial of course) wasn't good at all for the invading army.
Russia is very proud of the immense amount of suffering that its people are willing to endure, but there is one country on Earth whose people have suffered more and that is Ukraine. I would never bet against Ukraine when it comes to who can take more pain.
That's a great point about the avionics package. I hadn't thought of that. And yeah, self-sufficiency is key. Can't have them relying on NATO bases for maintenance. That would defeat the purpose. It's a huge undertaking, but if it gives Ukraine an edge against Russia, it might be worth it.
I think the best part of the Kursk invasion is seeing Russians complain about Ukraine violating international law by trying to "annex" territory and how they could never have imagined that a country would just go and attack their neighbour in the 21st century.
I'm not making this up, btw. It's an actual complaint I heard a Russian blogger make.
I fear that someone (Ukraine most likely) will take on some nuclear reactor over there and whack it, radioactive shit all over the place.
Nobody is interested in another Che(o)rnobyl, ukrainians first.
Then you didn't saw the news lately, Ukrainian drones damaged Zaporizhzhia, a little but still.
Other sources here say that this was not the case. Instead, the Russians hauled some rubber tires on top of a cooling tower and set the rubber on fire in order to scare Ukrainian supporters in the West. This also sounds more convincing because there seems to be no good reason to store lots of flammable materials high up in a cooling tower of a nuclear plant. The thick black smoke that has been seen on photographs would also fit this theory.
The tower also was rather distant from the main plant, thus the danger of setting something with nuclear material inside on fire is rather small. And since Zaporizhzhia has been shut down quite a while ago due to the war, there's also no need to fire anything at this plant if the Ukrainians really wanted to destroy something (and also risk contaminating a lot of land they consider theirs in the process).
Concerning the planes, a german podcast just stated that the most significant problem with the F-16's is that the Ukrainians so far have very different restrictions placed by various countries of "the West" on the weapons this plane could use. If you have to do a shitload of bureaucracy until you can fire a single shot or missile, then using any kind of weapons with restrictions on use is so difficult that the Ukrainians most likely won't consider it worth their time. For contrary to what some people say or write on the internet, the Ukraine seems to use their weapons just the way the West allows them - after all, they know things would be much harder for them if the West would withdraw support.
And of course, deliberately shooting at a nuclear plant would also severely endanger Western support. Another reason not to believe everything one reads on the net.
Besides, it is questionable whether destroying a nuclear plant to have "nuclear shit all over the place" would have any effect on the movements of the Russian troops. When they advanced through Ukraine, they drove their vehicles directly through the lands that are still contaminated by the Chernobyl incident. Sure, it's not as dangerous anymore as it was in 1986, but still... they don't care much about their troops, as many other reports also confirm.
Zaporizhzhia NCPP is not the same of Che(o)rnobyl. Kursk one is the same.
How / what is the german population reaction to the lastest revelations (if we accept them as true) about the Nord Stream destruction ?
AFAIK, there is no real new revelation present here. The suspicions about a team of people including one woman travelling with the yacht "Andromeda" to the pipelines, possibly to sabotage them, and these people coming from the Ukraine, were already reported here a year ago. The only thing that has changed now is that there seems to be at least one person known by name which the authorities want to arrest. Last year, this person apparently had no name, so to speak. But still there appears to be no idea where this person (or the other suspects) could be today - not really ideal to get a hold on them.
These recent reports still prove only that the suspicions about some Ukrainians blowing up the pipelines are a bit more likely to be true, but it's not sure yet. And furthermore, the suspects are not the only ones involved; there have to be some "higher ups" who planned the large-scale aspects of this. There's no news about who could have been this, and also not a single idea about whether these "higher ups" are Ukrainians, or whether it has been a "false flag" operation for which Russia is responsible.
So, not much has really changed, and as a consequence, so far no significant reactions from the public, the government, or anyone else worth mentioning has been observed.
Perun just released a lengthy overview of the Kursk offensive. Probably as factual of an analysis that you can get.
Also, Ukraine: The Latest, a podcast run by The Telegraph, had a lengthy segment about Kursk, including a bit about electronic warfare: https://youtu.be/ZNuV_P4-o4Y?si=uMTl60_3TfpytHGY&t=1285
Last edited by Starker; 18th Aug 2024 at 17:42.
When it comes to news, I read all sources and believe none.
It could be manipulation from either side.
Better be skeptical than manipulated.
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